With Australian hopes sky high after Saturday’s game, the question is; just how much can we read into this victory? Already New Zealanders are putting their spin on it; from Graham Henry ‘the loss we needed to have, it’ll be good for us’. It was after all, a home game for the Wallabies and the All Blacks were half way through a grueling tour. Surely this is just a one game blip. Or is it?
First of all, what will this loss really mean to the All Blacks themselves?
Anton Oliver gave a fascinating insight into this with an interview on the day before the game. In it he said ‘they (Australia) are somewhat more mature than other countries in that, if a performance doesn’t go their way, they are able to just flush that, pick themselves up and play the next week. It doesn’t sink them. If New Zealand were to lose a game, the economy goes skyrocketing down. Domestic violence goes up … well, I am not sure that happens. But we possibly take it far more seriously.’.
This is the key to the All Black psyche, the pressure that they and all of New Zealand put on winning rugby games is like the pressure of water behind a dam – one small crack and the lot comes down. The water pressure for the 2007 RWC is unprecedented. In monetary terms alone the NZRFU have bet the farm on this cup; in just the 2006 financial year they are NZ$5 million in the red. It’s shit or bust.
However, it was not this pressure alone that defeated the 15 men in black at the G. On Saturday night the Wallabies did what the best Australian teams have done over the years, they soaked up (or more accurately coped with) what the opposition had to throw at them in the first half, learnt from it, and changed their game accordingly in the second. And what a change.
The All Blacks had not lost a game that they led at half time for 56 tests for good reason. Australia, however, ran two (almost three) unanswered tries straight through their centre in the second half. Much has been made of the Hayman yellow card, but this was the result of attacking pressure from the Wallabies in All Black territory. Hayman’s was the third All Black ruck infringement in the 3 minutes leading up to his sin-binning and there had been similar cynical penalties in the first 40.
But this was not the only pressure that Australia exerted. Leading up to the last World Cup, Clive Woodward said that it was a statistical certainty; the side that gave away the fewest penalties in their half of the field would win the cup. In the second half, Australia gave away no silly defensive penalties, denying Carter the chance to hone his kicking radar, and denying the All Blacks the chance to lift the pressure on themselves. Want to know why a quality and experienced player like Mauger spilt that pass and put that kick out on the full? You got it, pressure.
And then there’s the final piece in the All Black pressure jigsaw; learned behaviour. In big games over the years, Australia more than any other team, has shown how to beat New Zealand when they seem unbeatable. As with those big games – including two notable RWC semis – the All Blacks on saturday seem stunned, unable to find another plan or gear. You can’t tell me that this negative thought didn’t sneak into All Black minds when the tide turned on 61st minute. Not exactly what you need at a crucial time in a tight test.
For the Wallabies, although they wisely play this result down, it’s value is immeasurable. With it, Knuckles’ story of steady improvement hangs together and most importantly, in the Stade de France on the 13th October, there could well be an Australian team that still knows they can beat the All Blacks.
[read more of Matt's work here]
Recommend this story.
We're hiring. Find out more.
- Explore:
July 2nd 2007 @ 9:55am
Mitch said | July 2nd 2007 @ 9:55am | Report comment
I’d likely to quietly mention that the Wallabies have never lost to the ABs in a RWC game. Interesting… Good odds come 13th October, no?
July 2nd 2007 @ 12:10pm
Greg said | July 2nd 2007 @ 12:10pm | Report comment
Or due for a loss to play devil’s advocate!
But the Wallabies always do seem to take a step up come world cup time, let’s hope this result is a step in the right direction and gives them some confidence come Sep/Oct.
July 2nd 2007 @ 3:16pm
Terry Kidd said | July 2nd 2007 @ 3:16pm | Report comment
One thing I do know …. if a Wallabies v All Blacks semi comes to pass at the RWC it will be an absolute cracker and not something to miss.
July 2nd 2007 @ 5:02pm
sheek said | July 2nd 2007 @ 5:02pm | Report comment
Mitch,
We’ve only played the ABs twice twice out of 5 at a World Cup, for 2 wins. Good, but hardly anything to get excited about.
Should we be proud of a less than impressive day in-day out, win-loss record against other top nations? If we only produce our best at WC time, what does that say about our performances at other times?
Terry Kidd,
Agreed, if we meet the ABs in the semis, it will be worth watching. But I won’t hold my breath on the ABs imploding a 3rd successive time against us.
And I’ve asked the question before – if we OVER-perform at the WC, what kind of message does that send to our administrators? Especially when we all know, there are structural problems with Australian rugby.
July 3rd 2007 @ 2:23am
KF said | July 3rd 2007 @ 2:23am | Report comment
Hi
I would not read too much into this win – if there was a time to beat all blacks, this was it – they had a hard game against SA, they arrived in Melbourne on Monday afternoon, Leon McDonald got injured on Thursday, so all pre-game ingredients for All Balcks were there.
Also, yellow card to Hayman was effectivelly a yellow card to Collins, as he had to leave the game as soon as the first scrum was required.
The win itself is psychologically important for Australia before the RWC and that is as much as it can be said. For the real thing, let’s wait for the game in Auckland and see…
Interstingly enough – in the SA vs NZ game, it was All Balcks that lifted in the last 20 minutes. In this game it was quite different. It is worth mentining that not only Aron Mauger kicked the ball on full – it happened quite often to both sides and I would assign it to the shape of the ground, rather than pressure.
Kind regards
KF
July 3rd 2007 @ 7:20am
barry longsugar said | July 3rd 2007 @ 7:20am | Report comment
Sheek et al – it seems to me that chauvinism has once again swamped common sense. Had it not been for the absurdies of the first-half scrums where Gregan played the ref (and the stupid rules) to effectively stop possession from being decided, the ABs’ scrum would have murdered ours, and did on a couple of occasions. I think we’ll find that, with a different ref, and one that’ll be affected by the Kiwis’ home advantage, the return game on the 21st of this month will see the ABs win comfortably.
They’ll be rested and playing under familiar skies, they’ll sort out their midfield problems (dropping Mageur would be a good start), and somebody will have spoken to Dan Carter and told him to snap out of it.
The ABs will take this win, and the one over the Boks’ B team on the 14th, into the RWC where they have nothing but soft games until meeting either Ireland or Argentina (I guess). The Wallabies, on the other hand, may have trouble beating Wales because a full-strength Welsh scrum in Cardiff will dominate a full-strength Wallaby scrum in Cardiff. And besides the Welsh and the ABs, England, the Pumas, the French, Ireland and the Boks (at least in the first half) all have better scrums than do we. So how on earth can people think we’re solid contenders for the cup?
We beat the Kiwis on Saturday because you and I have never seen an AB team that was that flat. Right, mate?
July 3rd 2007 @ 8:28am
robert stephen said | July 3rd 2007 @ 8:28am | Report comment
Graham Henry can put whatever spin on Sat night’s loss he likes. Bottom line is that on the whole, apart from a quality rugby side kiwis don’t really have much going for them. The pressure of the whole nation is obviously too much for them to bear, come world cup time. I will leave you with the following statistic, Is History repeating itself?
In the past two World Cup years, the All Blacks lost just
once before the tournament, both times to the eventual champion
In 1999, the Wallabies won 28-7 in Sydney before taking their
second World Cup and England out-muscled New Zealand 15-13 in
Wellington four years later before becoming the first European
team to win the Webb Ellis Cup
July 3rd 2007 @ 9:28am
Terry Kidd said | July 3rd 2007 @ 9:28am | Report comment
KF … I agree with most of what you said. I very rarely bet on anything but I did place a little wager on the Wallabies simply on the strength of the ABs hard game against the Boks and the travel. I placed the bet before I knew that McDonald was out, so that I believe made little difference. I also factored in possible sin bins, although I must admit that I half thought that both McCaw and Elsom might get a mid-game rest at some stage.
Bottom line …. missing Hayman and ultimately Collins did undoubtably have an impact but I believe that the game had already turned at that stage …. twas why slowing the ball happened 3 times in quick succession …. so I discount that.
The big test is Bledisloe 2 …. I am unsure of the timing … will the Wallabies be playing back to back, Boks then ABs? If the Wallabies are backing, and playing away …. if we win that, then I will begin to believe.
July 3rd 2007 @ 1:19pm
Jerome said | July 3rd 2007 @ 1:19pm | Report comment
The wallabies certainly did lift in the final 15 minutes. Just as Hayman was sent of, the tide of momentum turned.
The score was locked at 15-13, and NZ won lineout ball, which mauger then drove into the aussie 22, out on the full.
The result was a lineout win from Aus deep into ABS half, and mortlock ran straight through mcallister and crew to throw a pass to staniforth,
While i have been overly critical of maugers performance, someone did point out several others kicked the ball on the full to….carter,huxley, larkham, so’ialo…..
Rugby can be a game of inches, and a few decisive tackles, and we would be talking about an unstoppable AB machine, and another loss to the wallabies.
cooper running through Mcaw, jack and gear from 6m out was impressive, as was mortlock brushing mcallister aside…then running nearly 30 metres before an behind the head pass.
Fatigue no doubt kicked in resulting in these missed tackles…if they had stuck..like i said…
A game of inches. But well done wallabies for grabbing their chances.
July 3rd 2007 @ 3:04pm
jameswm said | July 3rd 2007 @ 3:04pm | Report comment
Geez Bruce – the ABs imploding a 3rd successive time against us in the WC? We beat them fair and square in 1991. Two moments of Campo magic broke the shackles.
In 2003, I don’t think they imploded either. The Aussies knew what to expect and when the previously successful tactics were stymied during the match, the ABs didn’t know what to do. The Aussies tackled and played with incredible determination, plus the smarts. The Aussies stepped up for the big moment and the ABs didn’t. Whether or not you have done better leading into a WC, you have to step up at it. Saturday showed that again, that if the ABs play, in the WC, at the same level they did last year, it probably won’t be enough.