Two Tests to go before the real RWC test
Columnist By Spiro Zavos, 12 Jul 2007 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
At the end of 2006 the All Blacks were odds-on favourites to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup. The Wallabies seemed likely to struggle to win their RWC quarter-final against South Africa or England, and a chance to lose their pool round match against Wales at Cardiff.
The Springboks were struggling to win anything out of Africa and were expected to lose their RWC pool match against England which would throw them into the NZ half of the draw.
What a difference a new season makes. The All Blacks remain favourites but at longer odds. They are playing nowhere near as well in 2007 as they were in 2005 and 2006. Have they peaked, as Bob Dwyer suggests?
Certainly the controversial policy of taking 22 All Blacks out of the Super 14 does not seem to have worked, yet. There were reports that in the training period the reconditioned All Blacks had became much bigger, much more powerful and much faster. So far there has been no evidence of this. The two best All Blacks in the past two years, Daniel Carter and Richie McCaw have, in fact, been playing well below their best.
The South African sides, in the absence of the All Blacks for 7 matches, had an outstanding Super 14. Teams won out of Africa and the Bulls, powered by two great locks, Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield, and a sensational Bryan Habana on the wing, became the first South African side to win the Super 14 tournament. The Springboks took this form into their early test matches but stumbled against Australia, requiring two drop goals to win a close victory, and then going down to the All Blacks.
The Wallabies have made the best progress of any of the Tri-Nations sides. John Connolly has finally opted for his old heads George Gregan and Stephen Larkham in the backs. The scrum has become smarter, although under a strict referee it is liable to get smashed. George Smith is back to his best. The Wallabies played poorly against Wales, burst the Springboks bubble and then defeated the All Blacks at Melbourne, after being down 15-6 at half time.
This was the first time in 55 tests the all Blacks had lost after leading at half time. It was the first time, too, in 71 halves of rugby that the All Blacks were held scoreless in 40-minutes of play.
Jake White, the Springboks coach, has opted out of taking his number 1 side to Australia and NZ. A mistake but an understandable one. He doesn’t want to risk the curse of not winning overseas on to his main team. He is now saying that his players will get a huge lift if they beat the All Blacks, or are competitive at Christchurch.
For the All Blacks, sitting on a world record 24 consecutive home victories the next two tests, at Christchurch against the Springboks and the Auckland test against the Wallabies, are all about playing ‘much better’, according to Graham Henry, than they have this year. The All Blacks will need to do this to maintain the momentum they have built up in 2005 and 2006 leading into the World up year.
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July 13th 2007 @ 12:26pm
Paulmc said | July 13th 2007 @ 12:26pm | Report comment
Darryl
I agree with your “two things”. What would be even better (but including the “no stuff up” ) is refereeing consistency both within each game and (probably impossibly) across all games.
July 13th 2007 @ 2:36pm
Bob McGregor said | July 13th 2007 @ 2:36pm | Report comment
Greetings from beautiful Honolulu en route [eventually] to 2007 RWC. Weather is great and inline with my forecasts for Oz success at RWC – which was listed very early this year when every man and his dog was very negative about our chances. I forecast then that the AB’s had peaked and the sum of our parts would surprise most when it became time to get really serious. Sure there are still a lot of things that still need fixing in the Oz side but come RWC time we shud be there abouts and very competitive.
I have to take issue with comments that our scrum will get smashed with a strict referee. Quite the opposite, as most of the top country front rows pack illegally against Oz especially on our ball, and could and should be penalised to make then pack straight and not “disingage” on the hit during the feed. This is reason scrums have become a dogs breakfast and prompting calls from all and sundary to fix them. I’ve forecast that somebody will get seriously injured in the front row if referees don’t police this aspect of the game with potential horrendous financial litigation to Rugby. Not to mention the adverse Karma on the perpetrator! Then what for scrums – a noncompetitive restart like League? The laws are in place and they should be policed to the letter of the law.
I hope the referees at RWC 2007 are so instructed.
PS.Can anyone advise me how I can watch AB V Sth Afr test on Sat in Honolulu. Hotel doesn’t offer coverage. Likewise next weekend test when I’ll be in Canada. Thanks in anticipation.
July 13th 2007 @ 2:49pm
Temba said | July 13th 2007 @ 2:49pm | Report comment
20 + is a big call Sam, ill say more within 7 points and they wont get the 4 tri Bonus.
Each way. The springboks are most dangerous when they have nothing to lose and a little something to prove.
I don’t think they will win but I also don’t think it will be a walk over.
July 14th 2007 @ 1:04am
Joshua Carmody said | July 14th 2007 @ 1:04am | Report comment
Thanks Bob for your points. I finally see that I’m not the only one perplexed about all the propaganda going around about the Aussie scrum.
It’s interesting that in the Super 14, the key forwards for Australian teams were rarely dominated, and gained more than parity on more than a small number of occassions.
However, when they put on the green and gold, they’re complete crap…so the hypothesis goes. This clearly doesn’t add up. We can all talk about the “intensity” of test football till our teeth fall out, but the fact is that because the stakes are higher, the cleverness of forwards comes into play more often; who can bend the rules and hide it best wins the contest. Given that, it is far more likely that a strict referee will give Australia a chance to compete fairly, rather than fall afoul of the ‘dark arts’ of scrummaging.
Enough said.
Joshua.
July 14th 2007 @ 1:44am
DaniE said | July 14th 2007 @ 1:44am | Report comment
Hiya Bob,
Envious of you being in sunny Hawaii! I have found this website which I have not yet tested, but it may solve your problem of getting access to the game. http://www.mediazone.com/channel/rugby/jsp/2006/index.jsp
Best of luck with it
July 15th 2007 @ 4:02am
jools-usa said | July 15th 2007 @ 4:02am | Report comment
“Who’s afraid of the big, bad………………um………….Kiwi?”
All credit to Jake White for fielding a scratch team that played their hearts out for
60 minutes & again this weekend showed AB’s not firing on all 8.
Gets more interesting each time we see the “rested” ABs.
Jools-USA!
July 15th 2007 @ 9:34pm
Matt said | July 15th 2007 @ 9:34pm | Report comment
Maybe we’re making too much of the Wallabies recent form… only time will tell but you have to admit they have made significant improvements on last season, most notably their structure (and committment) in defence. If, as some think their improvement in the scrum is only because of indulgent refereeing then it will only be a matter of time before they’re found out…Until then, they’d better make the most of it.
Whilst the Wallabies though are being bagged for their inability to win and retain ball in South Africa what does it say for the Springboks with such an avalanche of possession still finding it hard to cross the stripe. You can only praise the Wallabies defence so much until you realise that the Springboks lack of imagination in attack was equally to blame. A lack of a “Plan B” was quite apparent and must play on the minds of the “Boks over the next few months.
As for the All Blacks the logistics of having to play the Wallabies after such a long road trip, having played such a physical test match must surely have gone against them…I wouldn’t count on them being so gracious to the Wallabies in Auckland. It was significant though that the All Blacks found a referee who was willing to penalise them at the breakdown, something every rugby supporter of another nationality has been praying for for years…It stalled the All Blacks renowned “combativeness” at the breakdown and had them searching for answers and arguably lost them the game. I can’t see them being so clueless a second time.
After such boring “lead up” games the 2007 Tri-Nations (B teams or not) has certainly been a shot in the arm for rugby supporters in Australia. All games have been tough, physical affairs only serving to wet the appetite for the RWC where things start to get serious. One thing for me though is certain, having watched the standard of the Tri-Nations thus far I’m betting on the winner being one of those teams…maybe France, maybe Ireland, England…I don’t think so…only the SANZAR teams are capable of maintaining the effort over the course of the RWC.