This weekend effectively sees the grand final of the 2007 Tri-Nations, with the Wallabies taking on the All Blacks in Auckland. The twists and turns of this year’s competition means the default supposition of only a month ago — that the All Blacks should stroll this one — is no longer a foregone conclusion. So what can we expect on Saturday?
I see two scenarios.
Scenario 1 – ‘Doomsday’
The Wallabies haven’t won at Eden park since 1978, and Saturday doesn’t buck the trend. The Australians yield yet another horrific start to a test. However, this time there’s no turnaround. The All Black scrum finally exerts its superiority and the Wallabies simply can’t get their hands on the ball. McCaw reigns supreme at the breakdown, milking penalties and turnover ball in dangerous positions. With the pristine ball delivered by the forwards, the AB backline starts to click, to devastating effect, and put away all of the tries they’ve spilled earlier this season. McCallister shows his ability to beat a man at will and Carter’s kicking radar is back on line. On the back foot from the start, the Aussie backs, with the inexperienced Ashley-Cooper at 15, simply hoof the ball aimlessly down field. This just serves to make things worse by giving the All Blacks all the counter-attacking opportunities they could want. The scoreline is a 30 point hiding. The All Black wobbles are expunged and the Wallaby progress this far is destroyed. It gives me cold sweats writing this, as I can just see it in my minds eye (and I haven’t even thrown in an injury to Larkham, Giteau or Mortlock).
Scenario 2 – ‘The Alamo’
The Wallabies show that the grit and self-belief demonstrated this season is no flash in the pan. There’s the trademark slow start, but it lasts only a few minutes this time and they are still within 6 points after 30 minutes. The forwards successfully attack the AB line-outs and in the scrum can hold on long-enough to clear quick ball. They show why defensively they are the misers of world rugby and repel all the ABs have to throw at them in this period. Still unable to find their rhythm, the AB back-line again splutters and Carter’s form hasn’t returned.
Ten minutes before half-time and the Wallabies find their rhythm, holding the ball for extended periods and driving into Kiwi territory. AB penalties start to leak again, there are plenty of warnings, but no cards. Mortlock wobbles a few over and the scores at the break are about all square. The AB’s come out firing in the second half and get a try up on the Wallabies through sheer power. However, the Wallabies once again close ranks; Smith, Elsom and then Hoiles from the bench haranging and competing like madmen in the loose. Larkham shows a flash of genius to ignite the Aussie backline and score’s back about even. Again the tide has turned and, while doing anything he could to stop the advancing Wallabies, McCaw infringes once too often and is off (the controversy)! The All Blacks are a man down and rudderless. The Wallabies get home by less than 5 points. I daren’t speculate on the ramifications.
Obviously there are many in-between versions of these 2 scenarios and it’s statistically more likely that one of them will occur. Given the points differential between Doomsday and The Alamo though, the balance weighs significantly in favour of the home side. But for me, well I’m going to dare to dream. What about you?
Enjoy sports? Enjoy a bargain? All Sports Online has your favourite sporting brands at up to 70% off. Online only, premium quality sporting goods and merchandise at discounted prices. Get a deal now.
Do you have what it takes to become a sports writer? Write for the roar
Rugby Union articles
- Will Super Rugby crowds continue their slide? (198)
- Will South African rugby force a Super 21 by 2018? (172)
- Brumbies 2012: New coach, new players, new attitude (128)
- Dan Parks and the unsolved questions of expat rugby (61)
- Pocock set to be named new Force skipper (56)
- Can the ‘Tahs win the battle after losing the Waugh? (51)
- What does the future hold for the Six Nations (50)
- The real story of how John O’Neill turned Manchester City down
- Wales’ Davies banned for ‘tip tackle’ (3)
- Graham Henry’s rugby future confirmed (12)
- Barnes to lead Waratahs in first hitout
- Harris and Lucas in Reds No.10 audition (3)
- Wales show Southern Hemisphere how to play running rugby (19)
- Dan Parks and the unsolved questions of expat rugby (61)
- Wales show Southern Hemisphere how to play running rugby (19)
- What opening matches of Six Nations taught us (16)
- Will Super Rugby crowds continue their slide? (198)
- Clinical Chiefs cost rusty Rebels in Corio (9)
- Six Nations shows rugby is a parochial game at heart (5)
- Goose’s Super Rugby up-and-comer XV for 2012 (29)
- What does the future hold for the Six Nations (50)
- Explore:
Hayden said | July 18th 2007 @ 12:08pm | Report comment
I think you are pretty much spot on Matt.
However don’t forget Matt Dunnig’s ability to throw away a winnable game in NZ through mindless penalties, especially after 50 minutes of Haymen pushing his head through the dirt to China.
If Macalister and Toeava click then we are are in trouble. However, Hoiles could spur a mighty comeback later in the game with Staniforth crunching through some weak No.12 AB defense.
rob mccourt said | July 18th 2007 @ 12:19pm | Report comment
matt
i hope your second scenario comes through.
an historical point. it was 1986 not 1978 when we last won and won with it the bledisloe cup. we have played well at eden park in the past . in 1985 it was a 1 point loss 10-9. in 1991 2 goals to grant fox against 1 to lynagh 6-3. and last year in a rebuilding of confidence stage ( which connolly has done so well ) we ran them very close. this all blacks team will not carve us up. this is most definitely not one of the great all black teams. if you look at tri nations over the last 2 years you will find there is not much more than 3-4 tries per game in this kiwi outfit and of those a good 50% have been scored on the counter attack when defences are not in their awful faces. so deny them the counter attack and their attack can look very pedestrian. the only issue is can we kick well enough to deny the counter and can we attack better off first and early phases.
rob mccourt
Craig said | July 18th 2007 @ 12:32pm | Report comment
McAllister showed he was not a number 12 at the MCG.
Ashley-Cooper will show he is not a fullback at Eden Park.
One positional lapse proves vital in the modern game.
AB’s by 15. Dunning to be shown up for what he really is – a body double for the Pillsbourgh Dough Boy.
Monty Stringfellow said | July 18th 2007 @ 4:39pm | Report comment
Here’s anothert scenario – all of NZ is wondering what kind of trick Gregan will pull to delay putting the ball into the scrum, a tactic that worked so well against the Boks.
They find out when the Wallabies get an early penalty and lead 3 nothing.
At the kickoff, the ABs knock-on and the first scrum of the game goes down. To everybody’s surprise, Gregan puts the ball in immediately, but the scrum collapses. When the forwards pick themselves up, something amazing has happened – the ball has disappeared.
“Where the hell’s the ball?” the puzzled ref asks.
“He’s hiding it,” Gregan says, pointing to McCaw. “He’s been doing it all day.”
“The game’s just started,” the ref reminds him. “And besides, it’s night.”
“Dunning’s got it,” Oliver says. “Up his jumper.”
“Nah, he always looks like that,” the ref says, and calls for a video replay but it’s inconclusive.
“Well,” Murray Mexted tells the TV audience, in his crisp, Etonian enunciation, “I reckon they’ve lost the ball.”
The ref brings in the touchies and they pat everybody down, but they can’t find a thing besides Chris Jack’s Hustler magazine. So the ref calls for a new ball and the scrum packs down again. Gregan puts the ball in, the scrum collapses, and again the same things happens – the ball’s disappeared.
The jumbotron shows a shot of Knuckles chortling behind the diptheria window. The crowd goes ballistic. They know something’s up. Rugby balls don’t just disappear – those damn Aussies are putting one over on them again.
But there’s nothing to be done – as fast as they bring on a new ball, it disappears. Finally the ref declares the game over and Australia the winners seeing they were ahead. They’re awarded the Bledisloe Cup.
The crowd goes super-ballistic. So does Chris Jack who had his magazine confiscated.
Later it all comes out – how they did it.
John O’Neill hired a computer geek, an IT wizard.
The game was played with virtual balls.
However, the Kiwis have the last laugh – crafty Graham Henry was way ahead of O’Neill – the trophy the Wallabies carried off was a virtual
Bledisloe Cup.
It could happen.
Matt Rowley said | July 18th 2007 @ 5:29pm | Report comment
Rob – you’re right, I stand corrected. Unfortunately ’86 rather than ’78 doesn’t make me feel much better!
Nice one Monty.
Matt R
sheek said | July 18th 2007 @ 8:22pm | Report comment
It’s simpl really. If both teams play to their best, the ABs will win. Reality hurts.
As much as the Wallabies are improving, either only Susie the waitress or massive apathy will stop the ABs.
My daughter has to do a speech on the “power of imagination”. Unfortunately, like aircraft, we have to come in & land sometime! My imagination says Wallabies, buy my reality screams All Blacks!
Leeboy said | July 19th 2007 @ 5:46am | Report comment
My quiet optimism of the last few weeks at the gradual development of the Wallabies and the impressive foresight of the selectors in putting the likes of Hoiles on the park at the first whistle fell by the wayside when I was left crestfallen by the selection of David Lyons and Stephen Moore together on the park as well as AAC at fullback and Latham straight to the bench.
Why I say Stephen Moore and David Lyons together is that it leaves us with less ball winners in the loose. Both the Hobbit (Freier) and Hoiles are mobile ball winners which is where we gain a lot of possession rather than your traditional brute rucking. The regression of the selectors in going back to a traditional, conservative starting line up, as well as rushing Chris Latham straight back into the International arena (in the mould of the poms bringing back Johnny) reeks of a lack of confidence…. and if the coaches are lacking confidence and the vibe is rubbing off on me way over in Hong Kong, what is it doing for the players?
Knuckles help us out here: Send Lyons back to the teddy bear factory… run another mobile ball winner in Hoilles or the Hobbit… give Latho a rest…. give Staniforth a chance and get him on the wing….. keep AAC on the other wing where he has been doing a great job… and give us some confidence that the direction in which you were taking us has silverware at the end of it…. don’t regress.
Gregan to engineer a yellow card for an AB forward and Australia to clinche it by 6 points…. 23-17
Hoilles has a blinder in the second half….
Lee
(Hong Kong)
Matt said | July 19th 2007 @ 9:28am | Report comment
My dream scenario is #2 but I feel #1 is a little closer to reality…I don’t think it’ll go all the way to becoming a reality as I think the All Blacks still have a few selection problems in the backs.
I would have thought #2 would’ve been more realistic for the Wallabies with a settled squad but the ridiculous situation with Julian Huxley and picking an underdone Latham points to a touch of depseration in the Wallabies camp. Just when you think they’re getting things back on track they find something to derail their campaign.
I’m not sure if I agree with the selection of David Lyons. Great player that he’s been for the Wallabies in the past it seems as though he’s a bit past it. If the All Blacks are able to get that up-tempo game going more consistently than they did in Melbourne a big guy like Lyons will be found wanting. Unfortunately Hoiles is paying the price for not being a big man…He’s an excellent player with all the skills and really does deserve a crack at the All Blacks from the start but the preoccupation with big men will always see him relegated to the bench for the big games.
Peter L said | July 19th 2007 @ 9:50am | Report comment
Reality?
Reality in the day of Professional Rugby is that stats from pre-pro don’t count, so the pre 1994 stuff is relevant only for a round-the-BBQ reminisce.
Reality in the Pro era is that the diff between the top 3 – 5 teams in the world is pretty much an on-the-day thing.
Reality in the modern era of Union is that we are in for a rare treat this weekend with two of the top teams in the world each out to prove a point, and with not one, but two trophies at stake, both very dear to their hearts.
OK, on stats over the last ‘n’ years the ABs have it, especially when the stats on the Wallabies point squarely the other way as well. But more recent stats (the Tri Nations) tend to indicate otherwise.
Here’s what I hope for this weekend. I fervently hope for an AB win (goes without saying), but more than that, I hope for a game where the Ref does not become a telling factor. I hope for a game not cheapened by a yellow card to either team, a game that is allowed – by the players (including Gregan’s scrum feeding) and the match officials – to flow and be the specatcle it deserves to be on the world stage.
I suspect that my second and third hopes may be forlorn. Depending on which side gets the card will most likely determine whether or not my first hope is equally forlorn. To my mind, that is sad. These two great teams should (MUST) be allowed to play the game, compete, and entertain, but I don’t know of a single ref that will allow that to happen.
Ce’st la vie – so just enjoy what you can of the game and the contest that IS allowed, and try to overlook the human factor imposed by an over zealous ref.
Bob Thomas said | July 19th 2007 @ 10:29am | Report comment
Peter L true, very true.
The approach to the world cup is on the line this weekend as well as 2 trophies. If the AB’s lose they will work their butts off to get up for the WC. Should Australia win it will be good for us as we need the confidence that beating the AB’s away from home brings.
Therefore QED its better for both teams that Australia wins.
If that aint a dream then what is?