It won’t be Alan Jones

 

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After a hammering with my predictions in the 2007 RWC tournament, it’s time to get back on the horse again with another fearless prediction. And here it is: Alan Jones won’t be the next Wallabies coach or manager.

There are the practical matters like how could the admittedly workaholic Jones (who sleeps apparently about four hours only a night, gasp!) fit in the intensely busy work schedule he currently has with a full-time coaching job? He did it with Souths, it might be argued, but then that particular coaching stint was not successful.

It should be remembered too that in 1987 the RWC favourites Australia went out in the semi-final under a Jones coaching regime that was undermined by his need to concentrate on his new radio commitments and devote only the afternoons and evenings to the Wallabies.

Then there is the fact that the game has moved on since Jones was last the Wallabies coach in the 1980s.

It may be that the shrewd John O’Neill may want to give Jones some sort of honorary role in Australian rugby (chief motivator perhaps? gasp!) on the Lyndon Johnson grounds that it’s better for critics to be inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in. But I doubt this will happen.

The thing about the push for Jones to take over control of the Wallabies is that it is grounded in some bitter rugby politics. Before Rod Macqueen was appointed to the job of Wallaby coach in late 1997, when Greg Smith was clearly not up to the job, I and all the other rugby writers were subjected to a strong campaign to get Jones back in. I even scored a lunch at Machiavelli’s with Ross Turnbull pushing the Jones case.

Turnbull’s attempted intervention gives a clue as to the motives of the Jones push. It was all about wrenching control of Australian rugby from the officials (the good guys in my opinion) who had beaten off the Turnbull-Packer rugby circus takeover bid. The mark of the defeat of the Turnbull-Packer gang was the appointment of John O’Neill in 1996 to run Australian rugby as an independent organisation not beholden to any media group.

Alan Jones was extremely critical of the O’Neill appointment. O’Neill successfully sued Jones. In the lead-up to O’Neill’s second coming, he was backed this time by Jones. But whether this is enough for Jones to be rewarded with some honorary position remains to be seen.

Who then is likely to get the Wallaby coaching job?

If the NZRU is stupid enough not to appoint Robbie Deans as the All Blacks coach, it is clear that John O’Neill will push hard for him. There are timing problems related to this. The NZRU appointment is due to take place after the ARU says it will make its decision. You’d presume that the former All Black Deans would see the NZ job as first prize.

If not Deans, then David Nucifora would seem to be the obvious next choice. He is the only Australian coach available who has won a Super 14 title. He was booted out by the ACT Brumbies because he wanted to regenerate the squad. O’Neill wanted the Wallabies to do the same thing but was stymied by Eddie Jones. Nucifora’s stint with the Auckland Blues has not been overly successful.

There are other candidates, including Scott Johnson. But there is a feeling, expressed quite strongly by Mark Ella in recent arguments, that as Johnson was responsible for coaching the Wallabies (he ran the field sessions, anyway) that the disastrous 2007 RWC tournament campaign should be held against him.

Jake White? I think not. There is his connection with Jones minor, Eddie Jones, which will not go down well with the board of the ARU. There seems to be a change of attitude too in South Africa regarding quotas with the president Thabo Mbeki now talking about greater ‘facilities’ for black players rather than quotas as the way to bring them forward. My guess though is that a black or coloured Springboks coach will be appointed, as a sign that ‘transformation’ is taking place.

It seems to me, too, that there is a push to get White (the right name for an England coach, after all) as England’s coach. Brian Ashton has been savagely attacked by Laurence Dallalgio, and criticised severely by Mike Catt and Sir Clive Woodward. Ashton looked like a shoo-in a couple of weeks ago to retain his coaching job. But not now.

So, gulp, here’s the fearless prediction on the coming coaching appointments: look for David Nucifora for Australia, Robbie Deans for NZ, and Jake White for England.

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