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How do we boost the number of tries scored in rugby and reduce the importance of kicked points in deciding the results of matches?
One obvious answer might be to increase the points value of a try and reduce the value of kicked points (penalty and dropped goals) accordingly. The evidence from the only regular annual international tournament played over the last 60 years is inconclusive however, as the graphs below show.
As can clearly be seen, the average number of points scored per game in the 5 Nations /6 Nations has been growing steadily over the decades. The graph indeed shows that there was a spike in the number of points scored per match in the mid 90s but in the long run, the path follows a steady line. More points are being scored per game every year. The next question is: how are they being scored?
The graph of average tries per match is interesting. It reveals that although there is great variation from season to season, there is no long term upward trend in the number of tries being scored. More points are being scored, but more tries are not.
Nor can the two increases in the value of the try account for the sharply rising points per match total. If that really were the case, the graph of average points per match would have experienced two “step changes” in 1972 and 1993. In fact, irony of ironies, the number of tries scored in the immediate wake of both increases in value of the try was sharply reduced for a few years.
What is noticeable is that there was a sharp increase in both points scored and tries scored in the late 1990s/early 200s. The points total has started to slip back in the latter part of the decade; so too has the number of tries. How do we explain all this?
First off, to explain the steadily increasing number of points scored in matches over the full 60 years I would argue that better ball technology, better field drainage at top levels, more enclosed stadiums and greater emphasis on coaching and practising have all contributed to more accurate goal kicking. When Don Clarke kicked six penalty goals for New Zealand to defeat the Lions’ four tries in a 1959 test it was an astonishing kicking performance. Today, if a goal kicker missed more than two out of six, his place would be in jeopardy.
It’s not that they didn’t realise back then that accurate goal kicking was key to winning a match. It was back in the 1960s when the great sage Ray McLoughlin argued that the way to pick a winning test team was first to pick your three best goalkickers and to select the remaining twelve from those least likely to give away penalties in their own half!
How do we explain the drop in tries being scored in the three seasons from 1972-1974 after the value of a try was increased? I would argue that it was the closeness of the competition in those years that saw fewer tries. The teams were fairly evenly matched and few matches ended in ‘cricket scores’.
Remember that in 1972, the championship wasn’t completed because Wales and Scotland didn’t play Ireland. In 1973, there was a five way tie with each team winning all their home matches and in 1974, Ireland won the title outright with only five points out of a possible eight.
This was the time when European rugby was strong, the Lions had won in New Zealand in 1971 and comprehensively in South Africa in 1974. The countries were all evenly matched, with the possible exception at the time of England, surprisingly enough, who were then in a period of slump.
The same thing happened after 1993, with a subtle difference: the teams were evenly matched but now they were largely rubbish. The English team which won back to back grand slams in 1991 and 1992 was over the hill by 1993 when the try was increased in value. Beaten in two 5N matches it then formed the back bone of the Lions tour to New Zealand that year which was thumped by the All Blacks. The midweek team, which lost several games, was even worse than the test team. Not a good period for European rugby.
Following the introduction of professionalism in 1995 the points and tries per match both rose sharply. I would argue that this was not a coincidence. France and England, the two most populous countries, spurted ahead of the Celtic countries and a huge gap in performance arose. Celtic players flocked to English club sides, their national sides descended into chaos. As they gradually got organised in the wake of professionalism the gap started to narrow and then in 2000, Italy joined to make it the 6 Nations.
What this did was introduce more opportunities for mis-matches which result in high-scoring games. Although Italy have performed bravely, and the gap has narrowed sharply over the decade, in the first few years they regularly shipped 60 points to the stronger teams. As they have improved, so the games have become tighter and the number of points and tries have decreased.
So in conclusion, the evidence is that what boosts the number of tries in a game is not the value of the try but the quality of the competition. If teams are evenly matched, you tend to get fewer tries. If there is a gross disparity between teams, you will get loads of tries, all scored at the same end.
Personally, I prefer to see tighter tenser matches with the result in doubt as long as possible rather than one sided try-fests. I think my views are not shared by the French who just love to see their side putting others to the sword. The spirit of the bull fight burns bright in southern France’s rugby heartland. But ask any rugby fan which was the higher quality, more memorable, more exciting and more uplifting match: the tense forward-dominated France New Zealand quarter final of 2007, or one of the facile 100 point + Australian victories over Namibia or Romania four years earlier?
No contest, I would think.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.