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AFL season starts – who will win this week and why

Michael C Roar Rookie

By Michael C, Michael C is a Roar Rookie

5 Have your say

    Round 1 of the great game begins today and runs over a long Easter Weekend. I have no idea who might or might not be playing. Especially on Monday afternoon. How do I do my ‘fantasy’ team?

    But – it’s all a stab in the dark until we get known form. My thoughts on the first round are below.

    Carlton vs Richmond
    For me, Carlton midfield a bit too good for the Tiges, but Richmond might have the advantage up front. Promises then to be a fairly even tussle, Carlton by 17pt.

    Port vs Geelong
    Port at home seeking revenge, indicators that Tredrea is fight and raring to go. Geelong, no N.Ablett, no S.King. And still no M.Egan. And apparently Ottens is out. How about a first up boil over, Port by 15pts.

    Collingwood vs Freo
    I reckon the loss of Clement will entirely unsettle the Collingwood backline. I think the Pies over achieved last year, while Freo under achieved. In fine weather Freo will be steeled to make an early season statement. Coll just by 5 pts.

    West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane
    Brissie could be back in town this year should Bradshaw and Brown stand up week by week. However, I feel WCE (minus Judd and Cousins) will be the first to settle down, at home. However, is Kerr still out with a finger? WCE by 22.

    St Kilda vs Sydney Swans
    The Saints to defend fortress Telstra Dome. The Saints look the team most likely to be the right group of players in the right squad at the right time. Saints by 28 pts.

    Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide
    The doggies all fired up, with a forward line too! Scott Welsh to bag 6 against his old team, Doggies by 25.

    Hawthorn vs Melbourne
    Melb have had an ordinary pre season – Hawthorn will be raring to go to make up for last years finals disappointment against North. However, with a good number of players ‘sidelined’ via the tribunal – the ability to whitewash the Dees may be lacking, Hawks by 19 holding off an ‘honest’ Melb last qtr comeback.

    North Melbourne vs Essendon

    The match of the round.

    McIntosh the key in a vital duel with Hille. Laycock and Hale for the back up rucking honours. Promises an old fashioned finely match contest. Will Michael pick up Thompson, will Petrie go forward to stretch the Ess defence and free up Edwards to take the 3rd tall defender?

    How will the midfields match up – will Peverill run with Harvey or Simpson. Will Wells fire? Will Rawlings run with Stanton? Or will it be an old fashioned shoot out.

    The Roos are probably most vulnerable up back – still lacking solid tall defenders. The ability of Firitto and Gibson perhaps on Lloyd and Lucas might be critical to the outcome.

    North by 3 pts in a classic.

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    The Crowd Says (5)

    • March 20th 2008 @ 1:51pm
      Wounded Tiger said | March 20th 2008 @ 1:51pm | ! Report

      Best chance the Tigers have is for Simmonds to dominate in the ruck against Carlton’s makeshift talls. Adam Pattison should be able to chip in – playing against ruckmen who aren’t 3 foot taller than him for a change. But it still seems unlikely that the Tiges will get up. Perhaps if Judd and Stevens are both rusty from injury….

      Damn. Thought I’d got rid of that last shard of optimism.

    • March 20th 2008 @ 2:45pm
      Redb said | March 20th 2008 @ 2:45pm | ! Report

      MC,

      Carlton by 30 pts. If the presence and ability of Judd isn’t enough to get them across the line in this game then nothing will.

      Port Adelaide by 1 pt. ..Pains me , but I think without Ottens and King to provide centre square delivery, the Cats may struggle against a team set for all out revenge. Then again the Cats could just run right over the top of them again. I saw them live against Melb in the NAB Cup and they looked like nothing had changed from last year.

      Collingwood by 10 pts.

      Brisbane by 12 pts. A verys trong team led by Jonathon Brown in the season he stamps himself as the best player. WCE still a quality team.

      St Kilda by 15 pts. St Kilda playing well, hard to guage how the Swans are going to go this year. Blooding youngsters though is code for a struggle.

      Adelaide 25 pts. too good for the Bullies even at home.

      Essendon by 3 pts. Yep, close to call. North were strong last year, Bombers set to surprise a few teams. Can’t pick against them. 🙂

      cheers
      Redb

    • March 21st 2008 @ 12:00am
      Voice of Reason said | March 21st 2008 @ 12:00am | ! Report

      0 out of 2 so far Michael….

    • March 21st 2008 @ 7:42am
      Redb said | March 21st 2008 @ 7:42am | ! Report

      Voice of t reason,

      Two points.

      1. Its the first round and therefore no form guide exists.

      2. I don’t see your tips here. 🙂

      cheers
      Redb

    • March 27th 2008 @ 10:29am
      Michael C said | March 27th 2008 @ 10:29am | ! Report

      Right –

      I admit I missed by a bit on my Rooboys, I will claim though that 5 from 8 is reasonable and retains a portion of credibility.

      Margins wise – well, if ever we get close it’s near a fluke at this early stage of the year.

      And to those soccer folk who decry AFL as a game of being 5 goals down at half time and thus game over – – well, AGAIN, I’ve had to suffer my Rooboys being 5 goals up half way into the 2nd quarter – and lose. And not just by a smidge – but a good 9 goal lose and thus a 14 goal turnaround!!!

      And for Wounded Tiger –

      ENJOY it while it lasts!!!! (……okay, I’m nervous about this week for my Rooboys – they really lacked run out of the backline, being down Sinclair and Jesse Smith and also learning to cope especially under pressure without the presence of one G.Archer…..our backline is our weakness and more so at present).

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