By Dave
April 13th 2008 @ 2:59am
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Melbourne Victory: already the 8th biggest club in Melbourne
After only three seasons of operation, the Melbourne Victory are well on the way to establishing themselves as a dominant force within the AFL mad Melbourne sporting scene.
Not only are they the biggest of all the football clubs in Melbourne, they are easily bigger than the NRL team, the Melbourne Storm, who had a six year start and have made three Grand Finals in that time.
But l would argue they are also bigger than North Melbourne, Melbourne, and at least equal to the Western Bulldogs in the AFL, with St Kilda in their sights.
What do l mean by biggest?
Well, there are a number of criteria that could be used. But for the purposes of this article, l will use supporter numbers.
Melbourne Storm average around 11,000 a match at Olympic Park, and even when they’re at Telstra Dome with better facilities, they will struggle to achieve an attendance of 20,000. Remember, this is a team that has been in three Grand Finals, including the last two, and are widely acknowledged as the best team in the NRL over recent seasons.
They have superstars of league playing in their team, including those that are first choice for the State of Origin and the Kangaroos.
In the AFL, North Melbourne averaged home crowds of around 30,000 in 2007 when they finished in the top four.
This is a club with 100 years of history, and as recently as the 1990s, were the benchmark of the competition with several premierships.
They also claim to have 30,000 members in 2008.
I would argue that many of the ‘members’ in 2008 bought tickets out of sympathy and are not North Melbourne supporters.
Look at their attendance today against weak drawing Melbourne at the MCG in perfect weather on the traditional Saturday afternoon — 23,000. Victory had a bigger crowd on Wednesday night against a team who had about 100 supporters at the ground.
Two Melbourne clubs with 23,000 between them!
Look at any North home game against interstate teams or weak drawing Melbourne clubs and they will struggle to get 20-25,000.
Their average from last year and previous years is falsely inflated because 50-70% of support in those home games were from the big rival Melbourne AFL teams such as Essendon and Collingwood.
A couple of years ago they played Port Adelaide in a final at the Telstra Dome and only 25,000 rocked up, many from Adelaide.
Melbourne have been struggling over recent years on the field, and so their current support is below their normal average.
However, their home attendances are also falsely inflated by the massive away support of the big Melbourne AFL clubs who bring 50-70% of the crowd number to any one fixture.
Their memberships are very low in comparison to the big AFL teams. And over recent years, they have drawn less than 20,000 several times at the MCG and tend to try and sell their ‘home’ games against interstate teams such as the Brisbane Lions to the Gabba knowing the crowd numbers will be dismal at the ‘G’.
Melbourne Victory have a larger home average to Melbourne when comparing home games against teams from interstate (true support!)
The Western Bulldogs are doing very well on the field, and so the call against them is controversial, admittedly.
However, l again come back to games played by the Western Bulldogs at home against interstate opposition (that have limited away support) and would argue that the Melbourne Victory have a higher average (26,000 in 2007-8).
For example, in the first game in 2008, the Western Bulldogs drew around 25,000 versus Adelaide to the Telstra Dome, with several thousand Adelaide fans boosting the attendance and a Western Bulldogs star player playing his 300th game!
Their home game average is vastly inflated by games against the big AFL teams in Melbourne, as it is with the other two teams.
So what is the point of this article?
The Melbourne Victory in three years have surpassed, in terms of true supporter numbers at games, the Melbourne Storm and 3 Melbourne AFL teams who have had 100 years or so head start.
Therefore, despite all the recent controversy about the number of AFL teams in Melbourne and relocation, the conclusion is clear: Melbourne will lose two-three AFL teams within the foreseeable future. And, yes, the writing is clearly on the wall for North and Melbourne.
Melbourne will also have a second HAL team within that same time frame.
The NRL still have a lot of work to do to establish the code in Melbourne. What happens when the Storm stop winning and lose their best players?
And the ARU are nowhere to be seen!
‘The times, they are a changn’.
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Joe FC said | April 13th 2008 @ 9:57am | Report comment
Dave
No doubt the Victory have done very well in their short time although from a statistical perspective its not too hard to look good when you’re starting from zero ( but that should not take away from their impressive performance ). Aussie rules will always be the dominant code in Melbourne but football can continue to grow - though at a much slower rate than the first 3 years. The question of a 2nd HAL team in Melb has been much discussed on Roar - it seems inevitable but as to how that will impact on the Victory remains to be seen.
Dave said | April 13th 2008 @ 11:10am | Report comment
Joe FC
I know so many football people who don’t or wont go to Victory games because they dont like the coach, the ground, the style of play etc. I believe Victory need a close rival/derby game to stimulate more interest over a longer period. This needs to be done prudently but l believe the time is ripe in the next 2-3 years. It could represent the huge SE of Melb or go the other way out west to Geelong/Werribee. It could even be set up not to represent one region of Melbourne but all of Victoria? There needs to be a HAL game in Melbourne every week.
If Victory can increase or even maintain their impressive membership numbers on the back of their poor season it will be a major achievement equal to anything they have done on the field. I still believe they could do more at the grassroots/school level and a second club would help here also. Nothing gets the attention of kids like having the hero/player standing in front of them and talking to them.
Joe FC said | April 13th 2008 @ 11:20am | Report comment
Dave
You mount a compelling case & I’m certainly not going to dispute it - all teams of all codes need their fierce rivals.
Midfielder said | April 13th 2008 @ 11:36am | Report comment
Interesting read and I hope you are right, seems to me there are four new teams coming within the next 2 to 3 years.
The big thing is where; here are my two possible answers.
New team Plan 1
Melbourne extra, GC, Townsville, Wollongong, this option needs to move Flying circus to Parramatta (centre of Sydney)
Plan 2
Melbourne extra, GC, Wollongong, Extra Sydney team—meaning Townsville wait untill teams 13 & 14.
The Substitute said | April 13th 2008 @ 12:23pm | Report comment
I have heard several AFL club presidents say that there are two teams too many in Melbourne. Go and compare the teams per capita of Perth and Adelaide (both AFL cities in their own right) with Melbourne and those claims will be backed up.
But no team is willing to relocate or merge. With west Sydney and the Gold Coast being taken by new teams, these clubs may have missed their chance. I guess Tasmania is always waiting in the wings…
As for the A-League, I hope the FFA pays as much attention to winning over Melbourne than they are to Sydney. Dave, you have pointed out the damage one team has done to the AFL, what would three teams do? The formula for winning over Melbourne is simple: a south-east Melbourne-based team to cover the eastern suburbs all the way to Gippsland, a Geelong-based team to cover Geelong and the western suburbs and then Victory can claim all the suburbs in between and maybe even all the way to Bendigo. (Not forgetting all their existing support).
I think a second Melbourne team would need to better engage with former NSL clubs like South Melbourne and Melbourne Knights, because their fans (like those who don’t like the coach/ground/style) are avoiding the Victory. Although it is a fine line because of all the history behind those clubs.
The Substitute said | April 13th 2008 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
Midfielder
I think plan 2 will probably eventuate, although I have no idea which regional teams will get up. If it is Wollongong, then the 13th and 14th teams should be Townsville and Geelong.
It would be good to see a Canberra or Tasmania get up, but that isn’t looking likely so far. Perhaps these smaller cities could be host to the youth league teams down the track. The Phoenix are looking to base a youth league team in Canberra. Under the Melbourne formula I just posted about, NYL from Victorian clubs could be based in Tassie, Bendigo, Ballarat or Gippsland. The new West Sydney team can play in either Penrith or Parramatta (whichever bid doesn’t get up in the real expansion). Townsville could play in Cairns. You get the idea…
The NYL could become an American-style minor league, similar to the NBA’s D-League. This method would further the reach of the A-League and make sure these second-tier cities/towns are not left out.
Dave said | April 13th 2008 @ 5:19pm | Report comment
Midfielder/Substitute
I don’t know enough about Wollongong to comment on the readiness for HAL. Have they aground that can hold 20-25,000 and is there any prospect of that size attendance, or at least an ave of 15-18,000?
Agreed 2nd teams in Syd and Melb a must within 2-3 yrs. What about playing 2nd Syd games at ANZ for trial with top tiers closed off? Could they possibly engage 25-30,000 people to come? Need to be very distinct from SFC to set up rivalry but not ethnic base.
My gut feelings are that followers of some of the former NSL sides in Melb are waiting to follow new team. Hope that it also doesn’t divide along ethnic lines. Must be seen to be cleanskins running the club with some football expertise in the background to support. Maybe that is one reason to have them based out in the burbs, east or west.
GC is a shoe in, with stadium already in place, for next season.
The vibes out of Nth Queensland are not good at the moment. Hope the parties can get together to sort it out otherwise boot them for now.
More investigation needs to be done in Tassie but if they are given a chance the whole population would get behind it. Facilities and sponsorships are the key issues there and HAL probably needs to be on very firm ground before taking the risk.
Melb and Syd desperately need the 2nd youth teams to satisfy huge numbers of Juniors into Youth/Seniors. May help stem some of the flow OS. Hundreds of thousands of players coming through with 11-12 positions in each city? Players will keep going in the sysytem if they have a realistic chance of making the grade. The youth teams could spread their games around the state but not sure if they would draw any crowds.
Who then to come in with GC next season? It is looking problematic.
In 10 years would like;
2 x Melb
1 x Geelong
2 x Syd
1 x Adel
1 x Perth
1 x CC
1 x New
1 x GC
1 x Bris
1 x Nth Queens
2 x either Woll, Canb, Tassie, 2nd team NZ
We need a comp that can sustain 12-14 teams with ave crowds of 20,000plus playing in stadiums they have rights to eg catering, advertising etc
Redb said | April 13th 2008 @ 5:57pm | Report comment
The Substitute,
It would be fair to say that Melbourne and North Melbourne have been lowly supported Melbourne AFL clubs well before Melb Victory came onto the scene. Victory plays in summer, any loss of support for those teams has little to do with Victory’s impressive record off the field. Soccer has always had large latent support in Melbourne, it just needed to rid itself of the ethnic tensions.
In time it may rival Collingwood or Essendon if the A League remains a one team one town in Melbourne. But obviously this would not be at the expense of the AFL, as the seasons are different and there is no reason why you could not be a member of an AFL club and the Victory - as some already are.
Redb
The Substitute said | April 13th 2008 @ 6:18pm | Report comment
Dave,
WIN Stadium in Wollongong has a 20,000-seat capacity although I wouldn’t call it the most modern stadium in the world. Your ten year prediction seems spot on btw.
Dave said | April 13th 2008 @ 6:43pm | Report comment
Redb
My point wasn’t to say Victory had caused the attendance issues for the 3 AFL teams mentioned, rather more to highlight how far Victory have come in a short time. As Joe FC states it has come off a zero starting point so anything was going to be an improvement. MV will need to work hard and get some important decisions right if they want to keep lifting their memberships and profile. It is still way too early for them to take the foot off the pedal. They have certainly not been the cause for any AFL team attendance problems and as you rightly point out they play in different seasons currently with some cross over of memberships..The other points being that due to their success FFA should be looking to bring a new team into Victoria to keep the momentum going (if the 2 Melb HAL teams are successfu then it might bite into some AFL advertising, sponsorships etc) and that NM and Melb have got very little time left (IMO 5 -8 years maybe) in the Melb market place unless big turnarounds occur. Not a good look on the box of playing in front of barely quarter full stadium! What about when Western Sydney come to play NM at the G or even TD??? Even with 2 new teams coming on board would think AFL comp will eventually settle back to 16 team comp. Interesting times ahead! At least you wont have to worry about the futue of Essendon who are almost on par with Collingwood as the biggest Melbourne team.
Redb said | April 13th 2008 @ 7:31pm | Report comment
Dave,
No worries i know that was not your point, but Substitutes.
I’m fairly pragmatic and its easy when your team is Essendon I know, but I’ve always felt that 9 Melb teams is too many for the comp. i think your timeline is about right, North Melb at 8-10 years, Melb perhaps 5 - 8 years. The AFL has done extremely well to keep a presence for the Swans and Lions even after much early pain, by the time each was playing Grand Finals there was enough connection for old Fitzroy fans to enjoy the Bris Lions wins and South supporters the Swans - the bloods. That may not be possible in the future. The size of the AFL comp with $6m salary caps,etc makes it hard for the smaller clubs to compete, they will either go back to the VFL, merge or relocate.
Re Melb Victory, I sense a poor on field performance in HAL 4 will probably see a level off membership and crowds. already happened in HAL 3. It is no doubt a sustainable and healthy level with 20,000 members.
cheers
Redb
Midfielder said | April 13th 2008 @ 7:38pm | Report comment
Substitute & Dave
The main reason for Wollongong is it will help tie up south western Sydney plus the general south coast for about 200 Kls past Sydney.
I agrre that my plan 2 (of Melbourne extra, GC, Wollongong, Extra Sydney team—meaning Townsville wait untill teams 13 & 14) will be the one adopted.
As for teams 13, 14 there are so many, Tasie, Darwin, Townsville, 2en NZ team, PNG team, Canberra, Murry River team.
Dave said | April 13th 2008 @ 7:53pm | Report comment
Midfielder
I have a concern about HAL having too many regional teams and teams not located where the masses are. Certainly the CC and Jets have done well so far, having put in the hard yards no doubt. Do you think there is a danger of having too many teams from smaller regional areas in too early. GC ok, then has to be Melb and Syd 2nd teams. This covers a huge population areas and allows rivalries to develop whilst HAL is going strong. Wollongong strategically placed but is the support there? Same with NQ?
Midfielder said | April 13th 2008 @ 8:07pm | Report comment
Dave
Don’t be …………….. it is the right way to go.
Wollongong will draw on South Western Sydney about 800, 000 people and the Southern Shire i.e beach side but close to Wollongong about 200, 000 people.
So Wollongong has within 20 - 45 min’s fairly easy drive over one million Sydneysiders, plus its own population areas Wollongong alone has 230, 000 not counting outer lying areas from Nowra up so roughly another 70, 000. In total about 1.5 million …………still worried
Gold Coast has a population of 600, 000 not counting the Tweed Valley in Northern NSW, and there is no break betwen the two apart from waterways with lots of connecting bridges, population hard to say as you can easily make the GC with an hour from Byron Bay but say another 200, 000, plus south Brisbane at least 1 to 1.2 million. Still …………worried.
Football is the main played game in these areas with league the main code watched.
Also regional NSW & QLD are the fastest growing parts of the country.
Dave said | April 13th 2008 @ 8:30pm | Report comment
Midfielder
Thanks
At this stage have no concerns re GC as they seem well advanced, modern stadium etc. They just need the right blend of some local talent plus one or two big names to get going. However I have noticed the Titans crowds have dropped since the first game sell out.
Know little about Wollongong and its football culture. The population is certainly there or thereabouts but will they support a team in good enough numbers, sponsorships etc? Don’t recall their NSL team being particularly well supported? I know even less about NQ and its football culture. At least they have a decent stadium from what l can see on TV.
Also have we idismissed 2nd teams in Perth and Adelaide to readily? Know the problems with Glory but in the good ol days, 43,000 at the GF! Maybe 13th & 14th teams in 5 or more years could come from one or both of these cities? Would mean HAL games each week in cities of 1million plus.
sheek said | April 13th 2008 @ 9:02pm | Report comment
Guys,
It seems to be with the rich vein of talent available, the A-League could eventually expand to 12, or 14, or even 16 teams within 15 years.
It seems imperative to me that both Sydney & Melbourne should have a 2nd team. That makes 10. NZ ought to have a 2nd team, & the nation’s capital, Canberra, ought to be represented. That makes 12.
The next 2 teams being mooted are gold coast & North Qld. That makes 14. Then eventually another 2 teams will come from Wollongong, Geelong & Sunshine Coast. One of those missing out. That makes 16. you might even argue an extra 2 NZ teams. That makes 18.
I think 2nd teams from Perth, Adelaide & Brisbane might have to wait for the 19th, 20th, 21st & 22nd openings available! Whenever that might be!!
In 2020, it’s not inconceivable, the A-League would comprise anything from 14 to 18 teams, made up of 12-14 Aussie teams & 2-4 kiwi teams.
Dave said | April 13th 2008 @ 9:47pm | Report comment
Sheek
Within 15 years l think 14 is possible. that would be almost a doubling of the current strain on talent pool, spectator numbers, sponsorship, advertising etc Beyond that who knows… There is definitely talent in this country but the competition so great between codes for the best youngsters.FFA are taking the right course by investing in coaching and youth pathways…whether football will get enough of the best youngsters remains to be seen. At least there is the overseas option, hopefully some Asian, Middle Eastern and African stars to go with the Europeans, Aussies and Sth Americans!
At this stage cannot see another Bris team, as GC will be in next year. FFA already burnt once with NZ Knights so would be very wary of 2nd team (l personally wouldn’t rule it out after new Aus teams have settled in). It took VFL/AFL almost 100 years to expand from 12 and they lost 2 in the process, so FFA, with ex AFL man in charge, wont be rushed.
However the 1st major test for FFA in the expansion stakes is that apart from GC there doesn’t appear to be a standout club/consortium ready to come in next year to keep the even number of teams.
Midfielder said | April 13th 2008 @ 11:31pm | Report comment
Sheek
Frank Lowy said he hoped for 12 teams with about 3 to 4 years. I think three actually and about 7 to 8 years to 14, and 16 teams is anyone’s guess but 12 to 15 years out sounds about right.
If and it is a big if, football can continue to grow over the next three years then the AFL & NRL TV rights deals will be interesting, especially if we make the 2010 WC. My belief is the AFL will have trouble getting the billion they want for the new TV contract and I guess by then internet connections, NRL not sure depends if they can keep the recovery going from the super league days.
Hardest part for football will be to grow at a pace that sends no one to the wall, and ensures for improvement on the park. I went and saw a state league match on Saturday night and the general difference in talent between the A-league players and the state league players is such that the A-league will find it difficult to grow at pace and improve the playing standard to a point were it would gain reasonable rating FTA.
Sheek your views on the ARC are well known, and the spirit of what you wish there I am in full support, but the product has to be of a quality so as to be compared to NRL & AFL & in football case EPL & Champions league…………and IMO the A-League is not ready for FTA yet…..as the quality when compared is not there……..the Socceroos are ready and its a pity they are not FTA. My point I guess is having the A-league on FTA right now could do it long term damage when the playing standard improves, and in two to three years it will be (I hope). This means when the NRL & AFL are talking to the FTA networks football will be sitting there 12 team comp, Asian and international links and much cheaper than either the NRL or AFL.
So Sheek you made another clever observation, but you left out the women’s league and it is anyone’s guess what impact that will have on future viewing patterns.
The teams as I see them will be a second Melbourne & Sydney team, Wollongong, GC, at the 12 teams, expanding to 14 with the inclusion of Townsville, plus another regional centre with a 20 to 30 thousand capicity stadium.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 7:57am | Report comment
Midfielder,
I’m not sure why you believe the AFL won’t get $1 billion for the next TV rights. The revelance of the A League to AFL in terms is TV rights is marginal, for one it is a different season altogether. I find it interesting that soccer followers constantly live in this direct consequence universe with regards to TV exposure against other football codes, particularly the AFL. If soccer grows and get its own FTA contract fine, but what makes you think it will be due to the AFL’s decline.
I realise the country has only 21 million people, so many sponsors,etc,etc But I guess my main point is the assumption that people who currently follow the AFL will just drop the sport and take up watching soccer exclusively as the A League expands, I find this both arrogant and myopic at the same time.
There has long been a void of quality domestic soccer in this country and the A League is filling that void.
Redb
Towser said | April 14th 2008 @ 9:49am | Report comment
Redb
All football followers are not tarred by the same brush re the direct consequence universe you mentioned.
I firmly believe that anything acheived by Association Football in this country is in direct relationship to the quality on the park and professional administration and bears no relationship to what has happened or is happening in other sports in Australia. This can be borne out as I have stated previously by the fact that 3 years ago crowds in football were poor domestically(Socceroos & NSL) in relation to other sports. There was no TV deal and AFL,NRL,RU& cricket were doing well in comparison as they have been since I migrated here nearly 40 years ago. Three years later football has got its act together(the success respect formula) crowds have improved(Socceroos & A-League) and their is a decent(by previous standards)TV deal but the status quo remains for the other sports I mentioned.
The following has always been there whether it be from migrants like me & offspring or native born,but the void you mentioned needed to be filled which it now has.
If you want to look for the demise of other sports in Australia dont look at the rise of football as the cause.
It will come because there has been a drop in interest for whatever reason in their Domestic competitions(IE reduced playing Pool therefore lack of quality players). Unlike football however their is no safety net such as the EPL ,WC or Overseas football to fall back on and sustain interest amongst junior ranks as has been happening in football ever since I remember until recently.
Melbourne Victory are just reflecting the genuine interest in Football in that city that has always been there, unlike RL where interest is sustained artificially by commercial means.
As a football fan Dave what I use Melbourne for is a yardstick to measure Sydneys progress. By any measure SFC is lagging way behind MV.
What frustrates me about Sydney is that I know there is a much bigger potential football market there than Melbourne.
Whether they’ll ever get of their backsides to prove me correct,well thats another story.
Midfielder said | April 14th 2008 @ 11:12am | Report comment
Redb
All things are relative if AFL received 1 billion and say NRL received 600 million, that would imply that for every 6 people that watch league on FTA the AFL can get 10. On figures I have read if anything on a Australia wide count the NRL out rates the AFL on FTA.
Football has never had any FTA but in the next round of talks when the NRL & AFL sit down to discuss for the first time ever will be sitting in the corner a 12 team comp, Asian and international links and much cheaper than either the NRL or AFL.
Given that both 7 & 9 now have overseas ownership it will be a different, and further the NRL will have climbed back on its feet from the mauling it took from the SLW and will offer any partner on selling rights to both NZ & PNG. The NRL own PNG and while other codes can be broadcast the people heart in in the NRL.
But I have often been wrong in the past ……………….1976 was the last time I think……….that was a lie actually I often make mistakes…………..but that is how I see it.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 11:45am | Report comment
Midfielder,
“All things are relative if AFL received 1 billion and say NRL received 600 million, that would imply that for every 6 people that watch league on FTA the AFL can get 10. On figures I have read if anything on a Australia wide count the NRL out rates the AFL on FTA.”
Your TV ratings for NRL relate maybe to the Grand Final in 2007 (with melb Storm playing), but Tv rights are based on whole home and away plus finals seasons in a five year package. Whilst the AFL rates poorly in NSW and QLD compared to the NRL, it rates very solidly in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide where the NRL is not shown throughout the whole year except late at night. The only exceptions are the GF and SOO.
I’m not sure what the NRL will get next time around but if you use the $1B to $600M scenario, one of the main reasons is the consistency and coverage throughout the season of the AFL compared to the NRL in all major captial city markets.
Thus Australian Free to air TV exposure is as follows:
AFL
Melbourne
Perth
Adelaide
Sydney
Brisbane
NRL
Sydney
Brisbane
Do the math again factoring in the Capital City exposure. This is what the A League are coveting next time around and the reason both the AFL and A League want two teams in every captial city market in the next decade.
The NRL appears nowhere in Perth and Adelaide and can’t get Melbournians interested in the Storm. That leaves the NRL with Sydney and Brisbane but bugger all else in OZ. NZ and PNG are not connected to our free to air network - the relevance to Australia’s national TV rights is zilch.
Redb
Midfielder said | April 14th 2008 @ 11:48am | Report comment
Redb
You may be right ……………..I may be wrong……. we will see in two years or so who was right.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 11:53am | Report comment
Mifeidler,
Fair enough.
But if you read between the lines re urgency to get the western Sydney team up for the AFL, they have already been given a heads up by the TV networks. The carrot has been dangled. I also think Ch 9 will push hard to get it back and I hope they do, the coverage by Ch 7 especially is crap.
Redb
Midfielder said | April 14th 2008 @ 12:41pm | Report comment
Redb
That’s an interesting point you make about the heads up. I just feel as I said before the NRL has climbed off its knees and football will be different to what it has ever been before. ( that’s actually to tame, football in Australia read post Lowy …A-League is on a different planet nay universe to the old NSL)
But as I said time will tell
Towser said | April 14th 2008 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
Dave
Just a question regarding the make-up of a Victory crowd. My impression of football prior to the A-League, judging by the participating clubs in the VPL and NSL was that it was predominantly dominated by clubs from a single ethnic background more than any other state. So when the A-League commenced I had trepidations that it would be difficult to “Gel” these different groups together to support one club. It seems I was very wrong. Unless are there other factors added to this and unique to Melbourne that help create bigger crowds than say Sydney? ie Judging by AFL crowds to NRL crowds people in Melbourne think theres more to watching sport than a TV set in front of you.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 1:21pm | Report comment
Midfielder,
There is nothing to say that the AFL and NRL TV rights will be similiar next time around. Again i don’t see a see-saw approach where one automaticially goes down if the other goes up. I think that attitudes reflects a RL fan mindset that the AFL does not deserve a cent for its TV rights and thus when RL is back on its feet as you say, the AFL will get bugger all.
The NRl will get what it deserves which at the moment is a east coast footprint. The NRl has greater saturation of pay Tv viewers due to high subscriber numbers in Sydney, Melb and bris about the same level, very low numbers in Perth and Adelaide for pay TV penetration. Pay TV has onyl receently stated to dictate tersm to the AFL, but has had the NRl on its knees for awhile - look at the media ownership for reasons (incl Superleague) for the problems of the NRL - nothing to do with the AFL.
Towser,
I see a solid progression for the A League and the game in Melbourne. You would know better than i about crowd support in sydney. I know the Swans have finally got a niche in that market where 40,000 will turn up to a game - it was all red and white on Saturday night, very few West Coast or neutral supporters. it has taken a long time to get consistent support.
Sydney FC hasn’t been able to capture the latent support that the code has in Melbourne for the code and as myself and Dave agree, there is a degree of cross code support for AFL and soccer in Melbourne. It seems that Sydney need a little bling to get them moving when it comes to soccer, yet they have a much bigger player base than Melbourne.
it is so easy to attend sport in Melbourne, perhaps that is the difference.
Redb
Koala Bear said | April 14th 2008 @ 1:49pm | Report comment
‘The times, they are a changn’.
Dave,
excellent article and I’ve been using that line consistently myself on the SMH flog. You are certainly right that the Aussie Rules League needs to down size. As a Sydney born and bred football supporter but retired to the Gold Coast and certainly no expert on Aussie Rules, but all of my friends late and present say there’re too many Aussie Rules Melbourne clubs in town and realistically need to cull it back to the big four.. Melbourne Victory have certainly the capacity to reach Collingwood in the near future.. I couldn’t tell you when, but they sure have the ingredients to do so.. I mean everything is there.. I hope the concept of one team one city remains that way for at least 5 more years and then a second team in Geelong would be wonderful in my opinion — there must be at least 90k distance between the clubs, so they don’t cannibalise each other..
~~~~~~
KB
Michael C said | April 14th 2008 @ 2:37pm | Report comment
We in Melb like to point out that, unlike the apparent ‘home’ of soccer - that the ’super team’ of the comp is MVFC.
And why?
Because they have absorbed and utilised the existant Melb sporting (football - AFL) culture.
They have made no secrets of recruiting former AFL folk and utilising AFL style marketing models.
They have recognised a high number of AFL club members who ALSO are MVFC members - - - why? The underlying strength of the game, the club - -not so much. The fact there’s nothing else on in town during what otherwise was the in between seasons sports attendance doldrums - - that helps.
22K members, and a couple of times last year the attendance dropped below 22K. NOt flash with nothing else on. Didn’t get anywhere near the 50K home attendance vs SFC the previous season. Perhaps they’ve found their niche.
I’m still not sure that a South Melb soccer club in the HAL wouldn’t have provided almost similar figures.
Now - your attack on North Melb -
lets say that 10%of the 30K members are ‘charity’ cases for 1 year only - that still would leave 27K fair dinkum supporters BACK on with NORTH MELBOURNE as distinct to the “Kangaroos”. That’s not bad, still a club record by over 2k margin.
And if only 20K north supporters and members turned up on Saturday - - so be it, for me, I didn’t go as it was first round of VAFA footy - I play saturdays. Most other country and suburban footy kicked off - - very, very few people don’t make the effort to get down the first week to their local club as players or supporters of family and friends.
MVFC - they play OUT OF PHASE with the State league and local leagues - i.e. across summer - - really, if a single team representing the entire code of world football in Melbourne/Victoria couldn’t get 22K members and average 20odd K attendances - - then, would not there be something wrong. If SFC were the ONLY NSW team, probably they might be doing that too.
Now - remember also - the Melb vs North match on Saturday was live against the gate on Pay TV - inc into Melb - I was able to hang around at my club and help out with duties for the 1s (as an old bugger, after playing the ressies) and still duck in and keep track of the progress on the tele. Gee - what does that say about it all?
However - true - NOrth have a record of sub 30K finals matches vs interstate sides - dating back to ‘93 vs WCE out at Waverley - - but, of course, that means people finding more $$$ after paying for their H&A memberships - - and, the reality of your attack here is that traditionally the NOrth and Bulldogs demographic is a little more cash strapped, they can be a bit of a soft target - and, especially for the older folk and country supporters - it’s not always possible to drop everything and attend a game that is scheduled at 1 weeks notice. Personally, I find the first round of finals is a little over priced given that there are 4 games compared to the older days of only 2 games on the first week of finals.
You also need to remember - that for any timeslot, such as a Friday night, not all members can make it - many older members and family and country groups may not be able to get to a Friday night game - - younger members may be playing their own sport and unable to attend afternoon matches.
Cash entry from away supporters is the real icing on the cake though, but - you certainly pick your target games to go as an away supporter if you’ve only purchased a home membership package - -certainly, I’m thinking about going as an away supporter this week to North vs Coll - - alas though, do I really want to pay my hard earneds into the Coll coffers??
Neutrals at the venues - the MCG, you hope to attract a few MCC and AFL members, and TD, the Medallion club etc. Certainly, Nth vs Melb on perhaps the last nice sunny Sat arvo wasn’t really an attractive match for people hoping to make the most of what could be the last warm weekend afternoon before winter hits Melbourne. I can’t blame them. I’m a member and chose not to go.
It’s not all black and white.
Also, MVFC never has another game on in Melb against them at the same time,(only cricket once or twic)e let alone over the same weekend - - the only action for medallion club members for perhaps 3-5 months might be a soccer game once a fortnight. Your point would only mean anything if MVFC were running in direct competition - with something.
Fair enough though, interesting topic - but, your conclusions are a little rubbery.
But - on a perspective you failed to look into -
Profitability.
The reality there is that for now MVFC is about the only profitable HAL club - and by some way - because of the lower salary cap etc - thus their higher revenues and a pretty okay stadium deal do them many favours relative to other HAL clubs and AFL clubs RESPECTIVELY.
Revenue wise, North Melb for example struggle by comparison to Collingwood, Adelaide etc - but NOT by comparision to NRL or HAL. HOwever, a budget consumes the amount of money available to it, and so - NOrth aren’t overly profitable.
MVFC - are okay as a big fish in a little pond of the HAL - - but, already displayed is the ‘world scale’, such that Osaka had a single player worth more than the entire MVFC salary cap. If allowed to openly compete globally - suddenly, MVFC would find their revenue sadly insufficient and would have probably zero profitability in the attempt to buy the best and compete in a more expensive market.
The AFL clubs at least still have that as a bit of a safe guard - a pretty isolated and regulated single country market.
Towser said | April 14th 2008 @ 3:36pm | Report comment
Michael C
I would be happy first of all if Victory retained crowds of over 22000. This is exceptional for a club participating in a league such as the A-League when it is compared with its standing to overseas Leagues. That after all is the real market for players we compete in.
To believe that South Melbourne could ever get close to 22,000 average can Brendan recover?
The comment about Sydney FC and the sole NSW representative, well.
Big fish litle HAL pond (to finish off the sentence) in the worlds oceans.
Personally I feel it takes far more guts to set off in a dinghy and battle the open ocean than to sail up the Yarra in a luxury liner. MV areup to the task ,first in the Asian seas then if they ever won the ACL the WCC is there for a challenge of Tony Bullimore proportions. If the ship goes down so be it, it wont be the first.
But each to their own comfort zone.
Michael C said | April 14th 2008 @ 3:52pm | Report comment
Towser -
certainly, good luck to MVFC should they position themselves to try to take on the world proper.
However -
what takes more guts, trying to work for Nestle or Kraft and ascend their ‘global’ corporate ladder.
or
trying to build up and sustain a purely domestic company - say, a Goodman Fielder - and hold off the global big boys…..
there’s guts to be admired in both scenarios - as the Mitsubishi example shows - just being part of a ‘global’ entity is no guarrantee of success - - so, again, good luck to MVFC in their battles.
and, hopefully the FFA will give MVFC a ‘event’ fixture like AUtd had last year around NYE’s at Adelaide oval……I thought the FFA erred by having AUtd host MVFC twice in first 8 rounds before providing a GF replay, finally, by what, rnd 15 or something at TD - - by which point there was no hope of a 40-50K crowd. Likewise, the MV hosting SFC was one week late - - shoulda been in Melb even on the Monday of Melb Cup Eve - at least on that ‘carnival’ and unofficial 4 day weekend in Melbourne town - - back during the RUWC on that weekend we had 60+K at the ‘G for International Rules hybrid game, and then 55K at TD for Aust v Ire RU match…..factor in a regular fixturing of MVFC hosting SFC on that weekend, and suddenly the HAL has a locked in Anzac day style fixture……….
Koala Bear said | April 14th 2008 @ 3:57pm | Report comment
I find it incredible to believe that someone could suggest that MVFC supporters are basically Aussie Rules supporters and that MVFC need to thank Aussie Rules for allowing them to attend MVFC games… How absorbed and arrogant is that ? You only have to see for yourselves that the MVFC’s supporters, support and cheer their team in a far different manner than attending a Nth Melbourne v Melbourne game of Aussie Rules… Chalk and Cheese …
The MVFC supporters are clearly educated Football Fanatics, and have had a healthy diet of Oversees Football to watch on SBS and FOX/ EPL; it’s clear to see for all, the direct association in song-fair and dress to convince you of that.. I would say it is more of the fact that MVFC fan base had no where else to turn to see some sought of live Football, but Aussie Rules.
So to assume that the MVFC fans are truly Aussie Rules fans first is a fallacy and misconception.. But, of course a number of fans would attend both codes.. But it certainly does not mean that MVFC organization have taken their cue from Aussie Rules, far from it. But more from Juventus, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Olympicacos, etc.
The problems in past Football National Competitions; were because of the ethnic divide. A Greek would never support Melb.Jueventus, nor an Italian support Melb. Hellas; or a Croatian supporting either.. But at last we have a truly national competition that has united the tribes, of all nationalities and all support there respective cities..
Although, some ethnic groups may still feel disenfranchised, however, in time they will support their team MVFC, once they see it continuing to grow and become successful.. The marketing has been brilliant; with the big “V” which is synonymous with Victoria and not because it is Aussie Rules..
~~~~~
KB
Michael C said | April 14th 2008 @ 4:10pm | Report comment
KB -
I’ll forgive you given you are living up there on the sunny Gold Coast -
however, it is well known in Melb that many MVFC members are also card carrying AFL club members. What proportion - I don’t know. However - I am safer in saying this than is Dave in his suggestion of how many ‘charity’ case memberships there might be at North Melbourne.
Melb Victory got Geoff Lord (formerly associated at high level with Hawthorn footy club) on board as Chairman.
If you attend Hawthorn games - you might hear the AFL version of soccer style song and chanting. However, it often get’s cut short by the need to just cheer - - those lucky ruddy Hawks fans and ‘Buddy’ Franklin et al, sitting 4-0 on top of the ladder.
And the beauty of MVFC over summer - people who the rest of the year go their separate ways - can get together at the soccer and support a team that doesn’t really mean that much to anyone (yet - it’s only 2 and 3 years in), whilst wearing a t-shirt.
Now - just what would be the case in winter, perhaps whilst sharing OP with Storm…….totally different story……totally.
So - when Towser speaks of guts - - there’s still those who look on with disdain that the FFA tries to present itself as the ‘true football’……….in summer.
And so - be careful about claiming the status of 8th best football club in Melbourne when you using those non-ratings period ‘points’ for your scoring matrix.
btw -
Dave said:
“Not only are they the biggest of all the football clubs in Melbourne”
when you’re speaking in the sense of ‘football’ generically, and referring to Storm plus every FOOTBALL club in Melbourne - - then this is a silly statement. Victory - the biggest of all the Association or World football clubs in Melbourne - - but, certainly in the Melbourne context - they are the biggest of all the soccer clubs in Melbourne.
Michael C said | April 14th 2008 @ 4:14pm | Report comment
btw - KB
how’s the wrists?
btw - KB
how’s them bluebaggers?
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 4:14pm | Report comment
KB,
Loving it how your defending Melbournians. Such passion and respect.
Do we assume you’ve not jumped the Bling FC ship and are headed south for some real support of a team. Hmmm…..
Redb
Towser said | April 14th 2008 @ 4:36pm | Report comment
MIchael C
If the AFL was directly challenged by other sporting bodies in the world I would tend to agree that theres some guts and nous involved in holding your head above water as a solely domestic entity. But its not.
Whereas MV without the resources of its overseas adversaries faces a real gutsy challenge to compete(As do other A-League) clubs.
Michael C said | April 14th 2008 @ 4:47pm | Report comment
Towser -
a little selective -
i.e. MVFC is the local ‘ambassador’ for the biggest show on earth. That carries certain advantages - true, I’ve long argued that there is a flip side, a double edgedness of the sword that means that MVFC is competing for TV viewing against Liverpool, Man U, AC Milan, Bayern Munich etc, and even in effect competes with the Socceroos. However, there’s some might big coat tails that MVFC can ‘free ride’ on in other respects too.
Holding you head above water domestically - depends which domestic market we’re speaking of - but, I won’t touch that for now - other than to say that the AFL IS in competition with the global sports - they compete for the affections of fans and viewers with every sports on earth - just some more so than others. The level of direct, in your face competition varies - from city to city and month to month.
There’s always that scale argument that suggest that Aust has too small a domestic population to support 4 codes - so, if the AFL were the only game in town in all of Australia I’d more take your slant on it - i.e. the sole domestic entity that also happens to be solely domestic, however, in varying ways, the AFL is (and always has been and always will be) in competition with 3 other football codes - all of which are international to varying degrees - let alone basketball and cricket and tennis and any of the other olympic sports etc.
Surely there’s a point at which , as I do with the GAA in Ireland - that you must admit that it takes a fair bit of guts,determination and the like to work your but off to promote and sustain the local product in the face of the ‘big spending’ foreign incursions. I don’t know how long the AFL can keep it up - there are those who suggest it’s only a matter of time - - before the MVFC’s of this world blow away the opposition…….it might be that MVFC aren’t gutsy - it might be just that they have a certain ace up their sleeve that when played will proove irresistable. Or not?
Towser said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:17pm | Report comment
Well I suppose its that old perspective thing isn’t it. Having being born and raised on overseas football I know how big ,entrenched and any other superlatives you care to mention it is compared with the Australian domestic market. So I see it as MV v the rest of World Football. If you see AFL as under siege and thats gutsy from your perspective then fair enough.
Dave said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:18pm | Report comment
Towser
The crowds at MV are an eclectic lot, made up of the full cross section of Melbourne. It is truly wonderful to watch the number of people wearing MV gear (IMO around 50-60% have MV tops) entering and milling around the stadium. They don’t congregate in ehtnic groups but rather as friends and families. It amazes me how many females go especially wearing MV gear. During HAL games there are many more families and youngsters, particularly during day games. For ACL games there is less of the youngest children. There are very few who wear Euro club gear and obviously no flags tops etc relating to ethnic or race issues. There are some AFL members and one of the mates l go with is a Carlton member. He never used to go to football in the old state leagues but is also an AC Milan supporter. Not sure of the crossover numbers but in 2007-08 there were many problems with the venue management and active supporter groups which kept a few away, plus the poor football being dished up didn’t help. The crowd is knowledgeable and passionate (unlike what MC said about members not caring because they also support an AFL club. Rubbish!) The area with the least supporters in is the mid level TD members who by and large are AFL. They also were the ones who did not attend Aus vs Qatar WC match and resulted in only 51,000 attending instead of 55,000.
However as l said on an earlier post there are many thousands of football supporters who will not attend MV games for a wide variety of reasons. IMO they are waiting for the second team and wouldn’t it be great to have a local derby at TD or the new venue! What an atmosphere that could generate!!
Midfielder said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:27pm | Report comment
Redb
Your post to me about a foot back pertaining to AFL & NRL future TV deals …………interesting and insightful …. and I can see where you are coming from.
So my point on this is simple and has not changed but your post on the has AFL already been given the green light by 7,.
IMO if football has a 12 team national comp, with Asian & Socceroos international links …………….. and is played in the summer months with only a few cross over weeks with the AFL & NRL seasons,…………… and be much cheaper, …….. with new overseas owners ……………… Also if the NRL can continue its growth in NZ & PNG , football the same……….. then I think there will be a change.
Agian time will tell
Towser said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:40pm | Report comment
Thanks for that info Dave. Gives me a good insight into the present football scene in Melbourne.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:44pm | Report comment
Midfielder,
I guess you could be worried if your game was just a TV product. The AFL is far from that with over 500,000 club members and growing. People actually turn up to watch AFL, a few posters have alluded to the North melb v melb game with only 23,000, no-one mentioned the Carlton v Collingwood game yesterday with 77,000. The game maintains impressive crowd support.
Carlton supporters are coming out of the woodwork like redback spiders - shouldn’t have any faith in bloody Collingwood to do the right thing. Actually the power melb clubs in the AFL are alive in 2008, the crowds will swell again, we are an obsessed insular backwater people in Melbourne - god love us.
Redb
Midfielder said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:46pm | Report comment
KB
The A-League in Hal 2, carried out some surveys pertaining to the crowds coming to A-League matches.
What was interesting was over 75% of people coming to matches also had AFL & NRL teams depending on what state you came from. Also that about 50% had been to and AFL or NRL match in the season that proceeded Hal 2. In Sydney & Melbourne the figures were a tad higher.
Also that over 50% of the crowds were young families going to A-League matches.
Its actually good news …………not bad news…………….Frank Lowy said and he is right ……………follow Collingwood in winter and Victory in summer, …………. if they over lap make a choice. Follow Parramatta and the Flying Choppers make football your second team.
Its OK, the A-League is in no position to take on either the AFL or NRLin winter and the standard of play on the field as it is now is not ready for FTA. Facts sorry KB, but don’t dispair we are building and will continue to build and by becoming the second code in each state will in time make us the number one code nationally. From their who knows but the AFL & NRL will always be their, and they should be as they both have a long and proud historys and heaps of loyal backers.
I also urge you to see the good in both the AFL & NRL, and we can learn from what they do well, …………. and learn when they do bad i.e. not that good.
Just take each step at a time…………….keep you head…………….play the game………….not the player………… we will win of that I have no doubt.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:49pm | Report comment
Dave,
Very true re Mv support being broad. I went to the Melb Victory V Sydney FC game last Nov it reminded me of an AFL game in terms of crowd composition , plenty of kids, families, full cross section of people. I have to admit the Cove (Sydney Fc ) supporters are more entertaining that the Blue and White Brigade. One bloke described the Cove at one stage as a bunch of messai warriors.
The game had its moments but was a bit of a fizzer - nil all draw.
Redb
Midfielder said | April 14th 2008 @ 5:50pm | Report comment
Redb
Prehaps my last comment on this as we are to a certain extent going around in circles……………..but there is no question of the strenght of the AFL or its crowds numbers my post was simply about future TV deals ……………. and I respect the logic behind your comments……………… just see it will happen differently…………… but admit I could be wrong and you could be right……………as I said we will know in two or so years.
Dave said | April 14th 2008 @ 6:04pm | Report comment
Michael C
I agree MV are the shining light of HAL and being a Melburnian am proud of that however;
1. Did MV recruit these so called AFL types or were they smart enough to see the potential and get on board at the foundation stage where the prospect is to build something big enough to take on Asia, US etc - no such opportunity for AFL teams, Presidents etc Big fish in a small pond syndrome there
2.No games dropped below 22,000 (small point granted) and their smaller ave was due to many factors, not the least poor performance, poor scheduling, issues between active supporter groups and TD mgt.
3. Nothing else on?? You mean AFL has finished so in your opinion nothing else matters - try Cricket, Melb Cup Carnival, AFL finals, One day internationals Aust Open Tennis, Motorcycle GP…shall we go on???
4 “I’m still not sure that a South Melb soccer club in the HAL wouldn’t have provided almost similar figures.” You are joking!! I believe some AFL people would like football to go back to the days of ehtnic divide and therefore “Soccer” could be put back in its real place in OZ. Dont hold your breath on that one… (btw South vs Melb Knights at TD bout 6-7 years ago 10,000)
5.Not only l say a large number of NM members this season are not supporters but just sending a donation to the club, your CEO said same thing in The Age yesterday. He also stated that club investigation revealed only 9,000 NM members went to 1st game of the season vs Essendon! There were 23,000 at G on Saturday with 2 Melb clubs so lets be generous 13,000 NM members. Seems like a hell of a lot of people just made donations to NM to keep them aliva. Remeber all the begging on FTA news etc before the game pleading with members to turn up!! They wanted 35-40,000! Also remember all the media publicity to save NM and keep them in Melb pleading with people to buy memberships in late 2007 early 2008 - send a message to the AFL!!! If only MV could get that media exposure they would have sold 40,000 memberships! IMO
6. You said NM vs Melb was live vs pay TV. Then said NM and Footscray supporters come from poorer demographics. None of the NM supporters could afford have Pay TV then so that rules out one of your excuses. The number of excuses you give for people not attending the games its a miracle anyone turned up!
7. HALs move into Summer was smart. It had no hope of getting any decent media in Melb during AFL season. Seem to remember that AFL was formed to play in winter away from the Cricket season to keep the Cricketers fit. Dont see a problem with footballs move to summer. BTW these days football runs for 11 months of the year with training etc, so some people do miss out on games.
8.”really, if a single team representing the entire code of world football in Melbourne/Victoria couldn’t get 22K members and average 20odd K attendances - - then, would not there be something wrong.” If it was that simple then why didn’t it happen for Storm or the ARC team in Melb? They both have niche followings as you claim football has. In the anti football atmosphere run by some media (or just ignore it and hope it goes away) in Melb then to achieve 22,600 members after 3 season (2 of which they played shite) is remarkable. Especially considering many in the football fraternity itself don’t like MV for various reasons. MV competition is not so much other sports but the established AFL media here.
9. As MV are a big fish in the small world of HAL AFL is the big fish in the small world of sport in southern and western Oz. The point being that our small world has a very real link to the biggest of all sporting ponds.
10. I enjoy some AFL Michael so am not totally biased. The point of my article was to show how far MV have come and that in terms of supporters stats show they have surpassed NM and Melb and are running very close to Footscray. If you had said that out loud 3 years ago in Melbourne (AFL heartland) you would now be in a straight jacket sitting in a padded room.
Dave said | April 14th 2008 @ 6:27pm | Report comment
Redb
I cant believe the only games you and Michael C have been to were vs Sydney and 0-0. The only home game l have missed in 3 seasons was vs Sydney 0-0! Unfortunately dud games occur in every code. An individual turning up to a game with no emotional attachment and sitting through a dud game can be a real turn off. My 15 yr old daughter (marginally Tigers B/c of her mother) hadn’t been to an AFL game but her best friend and the family are mad Cats…Yes they took her to TD last year when cats won by 25 goals. Daughter and her friends left at 3/4 time saying it was boring. She hasn’t asked to go again.
Redb said | April 14th 2008 @ 9:12pm | Report comment
Dave,
i didn’t mind the game as it was different. Just was a bit of a fizzer re the scoreline - would have liked a 1 nil win to Melb. Would have been happy with one goal.
Redb
Towser said | April 15th 2008 @ 10:29am | Report comment
Dave
Interesting thing is regarding South Melbourne, I always enjoyed watching them in the NSL. Not just for their style of football but the atmosphere at the ground always seemed to be electric(TV viewing only ).
If they were a team representative of a geographic area they would do well,but the atmosphere was created in my opinion by the Greekness of the club which I personally liked because I found it colourful(but was severely limited in its appeal to the community at large).
One of the challenges of the new era is to keep clubs such as South Melbourne relevant to and viable in the present scene.
They are after all the equivalent to clubs in the lower divisions in Europe for example and from these clubs the top leagues have obtained many quality players.
Here Roddie Vargas & Sasha Ognenovski for example have made the step up from the VPL to A-League,no sweat.
The Proposed FFA cup should help in this respect.
So from Melbourne Victory’s perspective it is in their interest to maintain good relations with SM and also the other VPL clubs as they are part of the lifeline for players they need top tap in to.