Rugby League: The first code to crack?
Roar Pro
By Eamonn Flanagan, 9 May 2008 The Crowd is a Roar Pro
118 Have your say
“Test football is at a crossroads”, says Todd Balym on this site. Maybe he should have written, “rugby league is at a crossroads”.
Cash rich AFL is on the warpath. Football is on the rise. Super 14 union will expand under John O’Neill. Pokie funds are drying up. So where is the rugby league good news story coming from?
League domestic crowds are struggling, despite what the averages might say. Empty stands, never mind empty seats, just don’t inspire the punters. There were 9,000 for Souths or 11,000 for West Tigers against the crowd-pulling Brisbane Broncos last weekend in the 88,000 all-seated ANZ Stadium. It looks bleak.
It’s hard for the players, hard for the commentators, hard for the 9,000 people.
Do you really want to go to a game like that? Do you really want to watch a game like that on TV?
Clearly we don’t. TV audiences in the crucial Sydney market are plummeting. Last week the ABC Friday night program got more viewers than league.
Wait, there’s more.
With fat cats AFL threatening to take league on in Sydney and the Gold Coast, over the coming winter seasons, league may have just reached it’s giddy peak.
Kids don’t want to play junior League. Things are so bad, league and union are even thinking of joining the junior codes to boost numbers and save resources.
Five pages were devoted to Souths’ first win of the season in this week’s Sydney Morning Herald, yet attendances showed 9,000 turned up in an 88,000 seater. That’s one page per 2,000 paying customers!
If they had the same measure in footy mad Melbourne, we’d have to sit through 38 pages for a Hawthorns win in front of 76,000 on the same weekend. Maybe we did, I haven’t looked!
The International Centenary Test has sold 7,500 tickets. Is anyone surprised. Could league have sold any less without blanket TV and newspaper coverage in New South Wales?
From where I sit, despite the massive push in the papers and on TV, few people value International league in New Zealand, Britain or Australia. In modern times, they never have.
There is only so much space for growth in the Australian football codes. And League should stick to what they do best: State against State, mate against mate; Origin and Grand Finals.
And get out of ANZ stadium fast. Did the CEO David Gallop really think that two NRL sides could fill it week after week?
Take the game back to the smaller, local grounds in Sydney. After all, 9,000 in a 15,000 stadium looks good and sounds good.
From 100 years of International League, what have we really learned?
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chas said | May 9th 2008 @ 7:49am | Report comment
Eamonn:
Rubbish!!!!
Longy said | May 9th 2008 @ 7:54am | Report comment
On the Gold Coast the media has been pushing the Titans tune to absolute death and even when they play Broncos they can’t fill the stadium. AFL will be a huge winner and maybe if the GC Breakers are able to move into Super rugby??? Interesting days ahead…………..
Blind Freddy said | May 9th 2008 @ 9:45am | Report comment
what have we really learned? That you have no idea.
Let’s all bag league for having international competitions (yet it is trying). Let’s all bag AFL for having none (yet it is trying). Let’s all bag RU for having nothing but an international competition (yet it is trying).
Every code has issues. Get over it.
And by the way, the NRL don’t tell clubs where to play their games. its not a dictatorship. Provided a sport is financially viable, it wouldn’t matter where it was played, nor in front of how many people at the ground.
El Capitan said | May 9th 2008 @ 9:46am | Report comment
It is sad to see such large stadiums not really full of supporters. But you get that in almost every code (bar AFL). I go to the Reds games and 20,000 at Lang Park is not the same 20,000 at Ballymore. I agree that most matches should be played at smaller venues, and the cracker blockbusters played in the larger stadiums.
Its a terrible time when Sydney can’t fill the SCG for 100yrs of League. Brisbane has already sold 25,000 for the RLWC final and you don’t even know whos playing. Perhaps the culture shift has moved from Sydney to Queensland?
The Link said | May 9th 2008 @ 10:52am | Report comment
Eamonn, how can you summise that domestic crowds are struggling based on one crowd figure? Also, what do you base your comment on that kids are not playing League?
TV figures plummeting?!!?? Generally speaking League is something that people are more likely to watch on TV than go to the game. I’d even go so far to suggest that its the number one winter code for TV ratings in NSW and QLD on free to air and pay, hardly plummeting. Remember that Super 14 and A-League are sheltered from the furnace of Free to Air competition. O’Neil’s push to expand S14 is out of necessity to try to land a good outcome for the next TV deal IMO. Otherwise the Fox number crunchers are going to question the S14 ratings
Perhaps you’ll get your guilty little fix as well during Origin this year?
W Warambeal said | May 9th 2008 @ 12:47pm | Report comment
Eamonn you’re a little pedantic about the Titans & Broncos crowd at the GC. The game was a sell-out – a couple of hundred didn’t turn up. So what!
Anyway up till last weekend NRL crowds were up by about 500 per game on the previous season. Only three games this season so far have had sub 10,000 crowds. It is during the SOOs tht the NRL crowds really plummet. So in that regard the SOO games are counterproductive.
Union & soccer can’t get their competitions onto FTA.
AFL which self-publicises itself on being a national competition has two largely transported teams in states with over 55% of Australia’s population. Home games involving the Swans & Lions come 4th or 5th in their home markets on FTA TV.A few years ago the Brisbane Lions could on 180,000 viewers in the South-East Queensland region;last week they got under 80,000. (Incidentally the Titans & Broncos game rated 301,000.)
here’s a copy of a blog about the AFL’s TV audience in Brisbane & Sydney:
1. The first 7 Rounds of Swans viewers in Sydney, and Lions viewers in Brisbane, we get a cumulative:
Sydney 589,200
Brisbane 571,000
So 1.1m viewers for 14 games.
2. The last regular Friday night NRL (before Anzac Day, was 18th April):
NINE’S LIVE FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Nine 673,000 372,000 301,000
NINE’S FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Nine 401,000 262,000 139,000
That’s close to 1.1m viewers on the night, over 2 games, of which the second was delayed.
(You can throw in the obviously puny numbers for those other 2 AFL games that have no data, they clearly didn’t make the Top 100 programs for the week, and as such they won’t make much of a difference).
So, after a third of the season, one Friday night of NRL in Sydney and Brisbane is the same as one third of the Swans and Lions total viewership for the year.
AFL in Sydney and Brisbane :loL:
http://72.52.152.33/~leagueun/forums/showthread.php?t=104804&page=253
Last week’s Pay TV numbers:
Top 50 Subscription TV Program Broadcasts
National STV Program List: All People – w/c 27 Apr 2008 Weekly
# Highest STV Program Broadcast Channel Day Time
B/cast Only B/cast & Plus2 Total STV Reach (000s)
1 LIVE: NRL KNIGHTS V TITANS Fox Sports 2 Sat 17:30 288 288 1,161 637
2 LIVE & ACTIVE: AFL HAWTHORN V RICHMOND Fox Sports 1 Sun 16:32 284 284 1,188 708
3 LIVE: NRL PANTHERS V EELS Fox Sports 2 Sat 19:30 256 256 1,307 609
4 LIVE: NRL TITANS V WARRIORS Fox Sports 2 Sun 14:00 240 240 1,227 524
5 FAMILY GUY FOX8 Wed 18:46 161 217 896 1,056
6 LIVE: AFL BRISBANE LIONS V MELBOURNE Fox Sports 1 Sun 13:00 158 158 1,179 552
7 FUTURAMA FOX8 Wed 18:21 153 213 813 1,019
8 LIVE: AFL GEELONG V BRISBANE LIONS Fox Sports 1 Sat 14:00 150 150 1,029 493
9 THE SIMPSONS FOX8 Wed 19:11 139 163 962 1,767
10 AUSTRALIA’S NEXT TOP MODEL FOX8 Tue 19:30 128 255 1,051 696
11 SELLING HOUSES AUSTRALIA Lifestyle Wed 19:30 128 169 1,085 550
12 LIVE: NRL SATURDAY PRE GAME SHOW Fox Sports 2 Sat 16:55 124 124 1,017 210
13 LIVE: RUGBY UNION: S14 FORCE V CHIEFS Fox Sports 3 Sat 19:30 114 114 1,304 328
14 LIVE: AFL: ON THE COUCH Fox Sports 1 Mon 20:30 113 113 945 242
15 AMERICAN DAD! FOX8 Sun 21:30 111 131 1,205 336
16 LIVE: AFL PRE GAME SHOW Fox Sports 1 Sun 16:04 109 109 1,106 237
17 PROPERTY LADDER Lifestyle Wed 20:33 108 144 1,011 468
18 LIVE: RUGBY UNION: S14 REDS V BLUES Fox Sports 3 Fri 19:30 104 104 994 297
19 NCIS TV1 Sun 19:30 103 123 1,352 822
20 LIVE: AFL ADELAIDE V NORTH MELBOURNE Fox Sports 1 Sat 19:30 102 102 1,246 535
21 THE INSPECTOR LYNLEY MYSTERIES UKTV Sun 20:30 99 120 1,254 258
22 GRAND DESIGNS Lifestyle Thu 20:32 98 124 972 471
23 LIVE: FOOTBALL: EPL MAN UTD V WEST HAM Fox Sports 3 Sat 21:35 97 97 943 359
24 KEEPING UP APPEARANCES UKTV Sun 19:30 96 103 1,329 168
25 LAW & ORDER W Wed 21:23 87 103 990 636
26 LAW & ORDER: SVU TV1 Sat 21:30 86 111 1,157 1,091
27 EASTENDERS UKTV Wed 19:01 85 92 939 323
28 WWE SMACKDOWN! FOX8 Fri 15:30 85 124 833 480
29 AMERICAN IDOL FOX8 Thu 19:38 84 111 1,087 669
30 MY FAMILY UKTV Sun 20:00 84 96 1,391 223
31 LIVE: RUGBY LEAGUE: TOYOTA CUP Fox Sports 2 Sat 15:15 80 80 1,081 381
32 HANNAH MONTANA Disney Channel Wed 17:30 79 79 801 534
33 LIVE: RUGBY UNION: S14 CRUS V SHARKS Fox Sports 3 Fri 17:30 78 78 884 170
34 WWE RAW FOX8 Wed 15:31 78 113 813 540
35 BARGAIN HUNT Lifestyle Thu 21:36 76 88 839 606
36 DALZIEL AND PASCOE UKTV Wed 20:30 75 86 1,016 172
37 LAW & ORDER: CRIMINAL INTENT TV1 Wed 13:01 74 86 514 750
38 LIVE: RUGBY UNION: S14 BULLS V WARATAHS Fox Sports 1 Sat 23:00 74 74 689 211
39 H2O: JUST ADD WATER Disney Channel Sun 17:30 71 71 1,190 298
40 CORY IN THE HOUSE Disney Channel Sun 12:00 69 69 820 340
41 DOC MARTIN UKTV Wed 19:33 69 94 1,094 275
42 THE SUITE LIFE OF ZACK & CODY Disney Channel Thu 07:30 69 69 358 534
43 AS THE BELL RINGS Disney Channel Mon 17:26 68 68 866 208
44 LIVE: RUGBY UNION: S14 H’CANES V LIONS Fox Sports 3 Sat 17:30 67 67 1,161 228
45 PROJECT RUNWAY Arena Mon 20:31 66 103 949 318
46 FRASIER TV1 Sun 19:00 66 78 1,255 458
47 DRY SPELL GARDENING Lifestyle Thu 19:30 66 83 1,075 338
48 TV1′S CASH TRIVIA CHALLENGE TV1 Sun 11:50 65 103 842 593
49 M*A*S*H Fox Classics Wed 19:00 65 79 934 539
50 LIVE: NRL SUNDAY PRE GAME SHOW Fox Sports 2 Sun 13:30 64 64 1,130 132
JimC said | May 9th 2008 @ 2:49pm | Report comment
Eamonn – This is a pathetic effort. I know the Roar is about opinion but surely there must be some basic fact checking. ANZ stadium 88,000? Really.
“Kids don’t want to play junior League” – pure assertion without any evidence.
This isn’t amateur journalism. It isn’t journalism at all. Just drivel.
Redb said | May 9th 2008 @ 2:54pm | Report comment
W Warambeal,
LOL how predictable. Yes lets distract any real discussion with selected TV ratings for NRL over AFL in tradtional NRL states. Your insecurity is obvious.
Now don’t get too scared, but those pay tv numbers show AFL at no. 2 , 6 and 8 in the top ten. Not only are Pay TV subscriptions much lower in traditional AFL states and this should be coupled with the fact not all of the best AFL games are shown live, but if you look back 12 months ago and prior, at least the top 8 games would have all been NRL.
The AFL at least get its supporters to attend its games in NSW and QLD.
For th record I don’t beleive rugby league will be the first to crack, unfortunately it appears more likely to be rugby union in terms of the Australian domestic market.
Redb
Junior said | May 9th 2008 @ 4:03pm | Report comment
“For th record I don’t beleive rugby league will be the first to crack, unfortunately it appears more likely to be rugby union in terms of the Australian domestic market.”
RedB – your grammar is generally fairly solid, but on this occasion you seem to be using the wrong tense. You are also assuming that the pastime that masquerades as rugby union was ever at the same level as the three other three codes. The masses don’t understand the game and find that it makes re-grouting the bathroom seem remarkably exciting.
Paul said | May 9th 2008 @ 4:42pm | Report comment
I’m not quite sure if TV numbers are the best way to determine a sports popularity. TV figures can be engineered by TV promotion. Bums on seats are the best test of a sport’s popularity. On this level Rugby League has been struggling for a long time. But, let history do the talking. This is by no means over.
Rugby League is certainly bigger than AFL in QLD and NSW, but there can be ne denying that the AFL has made up ground. As to figures dropping off for Sydney and Brisbane due to poorer performances of late, they are still very healthy for teams that are not going strong.
Average attendances for 2008 so far:
Brisbane Broncos (League): 40 931
Sydney Swans (AFL): 32 671
NSW Waratahs (Union): 29 641
Brisbane Lions (AFL): 28 956
Canterbury Bulldogs (League): 24 279
Gold Coast Titans (League): 22 645
South Sydney Rabbitohs (League): 21 404
North Queensland Cowboys (League): 20 147
Paramatta Eels (League): 20 121
_______________________________
Queensland Reds (Union): 18 507
Newcastle Knights (League): 17 675
Wests Tigers (League): 16 410
Sydney Roosters (League): 15 431
ACT Brumbies (Union): 14 271
Canberra Raiders (League): 14 063
Cronulla Sharks (League): 13 852
Manly Sea Eagles (League): 12 800
St George Illawara Dragons (League): 12 493
Penrith Panthers (League): 9 171
AFL may only have two teams in the north, but they are matching it quite well, coming in at 2nd and 4th from all codes. The Swans are rating better at the ground than any other team in NSW. There are still around 5 teams with healthy NRL attendances. Penrith look like they are in real trouble though.
I wouldn’t call this curtains for Rugby League though. Also, it is hard to say how well the second teams for AFL will go in QLD and NSW. That will be the real test for the AFL to see if it has what it takes to expand in the north. It does appear that NSW may not be able to continue to support 10 teams in the NRL. A few mergers might be in order so that 6 or 7 clubs can survive well. The suggestion of moving some games to smaller grounds is not a bad idea though. But it’s a bit rough to be sounding the death knells for Rugby. It will always have a place, but no doubt both Rugby codes are being eroded by AFL and A-League. The future is their choice though.