The Age newspaper has published a prediction that by 2020 Melbourne will have a population of 6.2 million people. This rapid population growth suggests that none of the Melbourne clubs may be in danger of dying out, as has been predicted in recent years.
The trend, instead, suggests that Melbourne’s insatiable hunger for sport will not be satisfied by just nine AFL teams.
While the AFL are currently busy making plans to expand on the Gold Coast and in Western Sydney, they may need to have medium term plans for expansion within the Melbourne market.
The teams in Melbourne are all traditional clubs from the 1800s, while some of the expansion clubs have been started from scratch.
It is certainly arguable that a new Melbourne team will have little or no following compared to the traditional clubs. But there can be little dispute that a Melbourne city with six million people will need more AFL teams.
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NUFCMVFC said | May 20th 2008 @ 9:09am | Report comment
At best, any increased population in Melbourne would mean that the AFL would no longer have to subsidise failing Victorian based AFL teams as they are having to now, besides, the AFL would want to put other teams in different places before it put them in Melbourne
If anything, there is an argument that they would still be wanting to push some out into other areas of the country (like Tasmania), or force some Vic teams to “merge” with interstate teams
Just being able to maintain 18 teams will be a mammoth task in itself
Also, demographics are another issue, what affects this population rise? Is it migrants or newborns with a cultural affiliation to other Sports under a changing Sporting landscape (emergence of IPL etc)
footy freak said | May 20th 2008 @ 9:11am | Report comment
No chance. The amount of teams already sustained in a city of 5 million is way above average. It will never happen while there are still clubs on death knell and selling games interstate. The Melbourne Demons, North Melbourne Kangaroos and Western Bulldogs need every bit of support they can get …
Paul said | May 20th 2008 @ 10:17am | Report comment
MIgrants have often responded well to AFL, regardless of their background. Many of the stars of the VFL and AFL over the decades have come from immigrant families. eg- Alex Jesualenko, Robert Dipierdimenico (just off the top of my head).
At last count, that I heard the AFL are no longer subsidising Victorian teams, well certainly not more than any non-Victorian team. For the AFL to share money around all of the clubs is quite reasonable considering that is the AFL. not the clubs who sell the tv rights.
It will take more work to keep a Western Sydney team going than more teams in Victoria. Of course the AFL wants to have their expansion teams in the northern states work well and will put in the necessary effort to do that. Yes, I agree that the AFL will want to expand in other places first. However the predicted population rise is over 2 million. Melbourne has not hit 4 million yet, so the predicted rise is over 50%. I am not just suggesting that the AFL could simply manage more teams in Melbourne, but that a population of 6 million will certainly demand it. Twelve years is not that far away either.
Paul said | May 20th 2008 @ 11:12am | Report comment
Footy Freak,
A city of 5 million? “The amount of teams already sustained in a city of 5 million is way above average.”
At this point in time there is no city anywhere in Australia that has 5 million people. Melbourne’s population is 3.8 million. The predicted increase is a further 2.4 million people. Melbourne has the highest football attendance for any city in the world, more than London, more than New York, more than Sydney.
When the 2.4 million extra people arrive we will have to ask them.
LK said | May 20th 2008 @ 2:33pm | Report comment
Crowds at Homebush and Gold Coast over the weekend were hardly inspiring. Maybe the Western Sydney Wallies or Gold Coast Developers will re-locate to Melbourne by 2020?
Forgetmenot said | May 20th 2008 @ 2:36pm | Report comment
I have been thinking that the AFL has been sitting in this very thought for a while now. Yes it may be best to keep the teams in Melbourne, but then again, if you remove the lagging clubs, then there can be more money spent on growing football elsewhere.
Another thought. By 2020, the AFL may have to start thinking of a third football stadium in Melbourne. Many crowds are beginning to out grow the dome, and in another 10 years, the crowds will be huge. They cannot shift all the games to the MCG.
gregh said | May 20th 2008 @ 3:07pm | Report comment
I think these population projections are way out of whack.
sheek said | May 20th 2008 @ 4:21pm | Report comment
This is simplistic gibberish, isn’t it? More population doesn’t automatically equal more clubs.
Today, people are far more diversified in their interests than 25, 50 or 100 years ago. And the question of the demographics of the increased population is also valid. What percentage of the population increase are anglo-saxon, or from 2nd & 3rd generation new Australians?
The increased population might help 3-5 current Melbourne clubs consolidate their revenue streams, but the city doesn’t need any more national AFL clubs. God bless Melbournians, they are given to fanciful thinking about their beloved football every so often.
Paul said | May 20th 2008 @ 4:36pm | Report comment
I guess it is just that we are crazier about sport than any other city in the world.
The strongest response in my opinion is from Forgetmenot, that Melbourne will need larger stadiums. If all of the teams start averaging 50 000 or more, then the Docklands will not cut it. The biggest weakness in starting a new team is that there would be no traditional followers.
But migrants take up Aussie Rules very well, so it is not a valid argument that population growth will not affect the AFL. It is more likely that larger stadiums will be needed than more teams.
Midfielder said | May 20th 2008 @ 4:37pm | Report comment
I think the 6.2 needs to be tested that is 1.2 million over 12 years or roughly 100, 000 per year.
Say 2, 000 per week, seems a tad high to me, many have sid before it is a big assumption to assume they will all take to AFL, as many will be from NSW & QLD thus more into league and union.