Can the Waratahs win the Super 14 title? Of course …
Columnist By Spiro Zavos, 26 May 2008 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
Can the Waratahs win the Super 14 title? Of course. Will they defeat a brilliant Crusaders team (emphasis on ‘team’) that blew away a strong Hurricanes side in their semi-final? That is what we are having the final at Christchurch to find out.
A telling statistic, perhaps, is that the Crusaders win virtually every one of their home matches (31 out of the last 34 or some statistic like that).
The Waratahs were also the beneficiary of the home ground advantage at their fortress, the SFS. The helicopter bringing in Tah Man before the semi-final aroused the roaring of the crowd and provoked a standing ovation for the Waratahs as they trotted on to the field.
By way of contrast, the last time the Waratahs played a finals match at Christchurch, they played as if they were petrified about running the ball, and looked as if they were playing not to lose by too many points, rather than trying to win the match.
To defeat the Crusaders at Christchurch, even though the crowd will be small (25,000 at the most) because a new stand is being built, the visitors have to defeat the formidable home side, and also their own fears of failure.
In the press box before the NSW Waratahs – Sharks semi-final at the SFS most of the journalists were watching the first semi-final at Christchurch on a big screen with growing awe.
At one point, a journalist called out: ‘The Crusaders are bad for rugby.’ When several of us suggested that they played beautiful, correct and simple rugby, in other words, real rugby, the journalist acknowledged that he was indulging in gallows humour. ‘They’re bad for rugby because … they’re too good.’
I had some misgivings about the Waratahs before kick-off. Would their bubble burst? Would they get their finals wobbles? Would all the talk about who was going to coach next season affect the team? Would they go into their shell as they have in previous finals matches?
The Sharks, too, had been promising all week to leave nothing out on the field. They were going to give the match everything their coach, Dick Muir, a tough campaigner as a player and a successful coach who is moving on to the Springboks, told the media. The Sharks, too, were one of only four teams that has managed an away semi-final win, way back in the first year of Super Rugby against the Queensland Reds in 1996.
The first hit ups gave me the clue though that it was going to be the Waratahs night. They took the kick-off and immediately moved the ball confidently and surely across their posts in two sweeping movements to outside the 22.
I didn’t like the way, though, that Kurtley Beale then positioned himself deep in the pocket and kicked an up-and-under that gave the Sharks possession of the ball near the halfway mark.
However the Waratahs defence machine coped easily with the Sharks attacks, a factor that applied throughout the match. Take a bow Les Kiss, defensive coach. Even when they scored at the end of the match with a meaningless try, the Sharks never really ‘looked’ like scoring tries.
Every now and again in the match Beale went back into the pocket, as he did earlier in the season, and kicked away ball that should have been passed on. At one point late in the first half, when the youngster did this a couple of times, someone in the crowd, clearly exasperated, yelled out: ‘Pass it Beale!.’
Quite right, too. When Beale got his passing game going he was putting Rocky Elsom into gaps, virtually at will. The most memorable moments in the match were when the burly Elsom, ‘Rocky Awesome’ in my view, powered his way through the Sharks defences, all shoulders and pumping thighs, a terrible sight for Sharks supporters and a thing of rough, tough beauty for Waratahs supporters.
What I noticed from the early exchanges was that the Waratahs were getting over the advantage line easily. The Sharks though could not make any dents in the Waratahs defensive line. My mantra in these matters is that in rugby the team that wins the advantage line battle (a bit like the league team that wins the ruck area battle) almost always wins the match. The Waratahs were going forward in the tackle: the Sharks were being driven back.
The other great advantage the Waratahs had was that their lineout totally dominated the Sharks lineout, winning four catches against the throw (or against the head, as Murray Mexted once famously remarked).
If this dominance can be maintained against the Crusaders, who don’t have a tall lineout, then the Waratahs will be able to nullify the suffocating pressure the Crusaders like to impose on their opponents.
After 12 minutes of play the Waratahs won a penalty which was near the sideline and about 40m out. The kick was on Kurtley Beale’s right side to curve the ball into the posts. I wrote in my notebook: ‘A moment of truth. Can Kurtley’s kicking stand up to the pressure of a big match?’ He missed this kick and several others but kicked a conversion, a penalty and a drop goal. The drop goal was nicely taken because it put the Waratahs more that two converted tries in front, with about 10 minutes to play.
Down at Christchurch – rather ominously – Daniel Carter kicked seven goals from seven attempts. He also played like the best player in the world making breaks, setting up tries, kicking high at the right times and tackling like a breakaway.
There aren’t as many penalty attempts under the ELVs as with the ‘old’ laws. This makes each penalty kick more important than it might have been in the more plentiful past. The Crusaders and the Hurricanes scored three tries each. But Carter converted the pressure of 33 minutes inside the Hurricanes 22 into points each time he got the chance.
Beale will have to do the same thing, one feels, if the Waratahs are to prevail next week. But is he capable of kicking to this high standard?
Can the Waratahs win the Super 14 title, then? Of course. If they bring their attacking game to Christchurch, running with the ball in hand hard and straight and putting on their now trade mark smash-them tackling, they could do a Highlanders to the Crusaders.
But, and this is the key, they have to play to win, something they’ve not tried in the past at Christchurch.
Factbox ahead of the Super 14 final between the Crusaders and NSW Waratahs at AMI Stadium, Christchuch on Saturday (kick-off 5.35pm AEST):
CRUSADERS (NZL)
Coach: Robbie Deans
Best Super 12/14 results:
Champions 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006; runners-up 2003, 2004; semi-finalists 20072007 finish: semi-finalists
2008 minor premiership: 1st, 52pts (won 11, lost 2; 369 pts for, 176 pts against; 8 bonus pts)NSW WARATAHS (AUS)
Coach: Ewen McKenzie
Best Super 12/14 results: runners-up 2005; semi-finalists 2002, 2006
2007 finish: 13th
2008 minor premiership: 2nd, 43pts (won 9, drew 1, lost 3; 255 pts for, 186 pts against; 5 bonus pts)HEAD TO HEAD
Last meeting: Crusaders 34-7 in Christchurch, round 6, 2008
Overall head-to-head:
Crusaders 10 Waratahs 4
In Christchurch: Crusaders 7 Waratahs 1Season-by-season:
1996 Crusaders 21 Waratahs 16 (Christchurch).
1997 Waratahs 25 Crusaders 8 (Sydney).
1998 Crusaders 33 Waratahs 12 (Christchurch).
1999 Waratahs 22 Crusaders 38 (Sydney)..
2000 Crusaders 22 Waratahs 13 (Christchurch).
2001 Waratahs 25 Crusaders 22 (Sydney).
2002 Crusaders 96 Waratahs 19 (Christchurch).
2003 Waratahs 34 Crusaders 31 (Sydney).
2004 Crusaders 19 Waratahs 43 (Christchurch).
2005 Waratahs 27 Crusaders 33 (Sydney).
2005 (final) Crusaders 35 Waratahs 25 (Christchurch).
2006 Crusaders 17 Waratahs 11 (Christchurch).
2007 Waratahs 33 Crusaders 34 (Sydney).
2008 Crusaders 34 Waratahs 7 (Christchurch).
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May 26th 2008 @ 3:11pm
Jameswm said | May 26th 2008 @ 3:11pm | Report comment
There are certain mistakes we have made against the Crusaders before.
One was Alfi Mafi’s older brother starting a few years back. They kicked to him relentlessly and he mucked up over and over. Sam NK has excellent catch and kick skills. Lote’s catching of the high or long kick is up there with anyone and his kicking whilst ugly normally works well enough. Turner is well-positioned and catches and kicks well (if too often). You freally battle against the crusaders if any of your back 3 struggle for defensive positioning or catch/kick skills. So a big tick for us there.
I think we should keep it tight the first 30 I’m afraid. Play it in their half. Smash the bejeesus out of them in defence. Get Cliffy Palu, Benn Robbo and Tafu (and friends) to drive their shoulders into McCaw’s ribs over and over every time he is within spitting distance of thre breakdown. Ditto beanpole Kieren Read. Yeah if we get attacking opportunities in their half have a big crack, but don’t do anything silly in your own half.
We defend the pick and drive pretty well – as well as anyone. The way to break down the Tahs’ defence is normally to break up the structure, so if there are long free flowing movements early which are allowed to continue, we’re in trouble. Having said that we now have some young, clever and quick guys who defend very well – Turner and Horne. Tuqiri would be the most consistently brutal back defender in the world, so you won’t find the Crusaders intentionally running into him too often.
Tafu PN will start. We have enough lineout options to cover for his sometimes inconsistent throwing. Vickerman is as good as anyone in defensive lineouts and Rocky and Mumm know what they’re doing too. With Tafu back, our scrum will improve immeasurably. We could actually worry the Crusaders here I think (yeah call me optimistic). I think Dunning should start on one side or the other. Robbo’s scrummaging has improved a lot and he is another tough cookie around the field.
We need to commit our own forwards to the breakdown on our ball or risk being counter-rucked out of it. It takes players out of our attacking line but it’s a must.
The Crusaders are starting with their backup hooker. There’s another big target for physical play. Rattle him (lineouts, big hits etc) and you’re staring at their 3rd string hooker.
Most important player? For us, probably Cliffy Palu. If he starts breaking tackles we are right in there, and your Elsoms, Polota-Naus and Mumms will run off him. And if anyone gets some big hits on early (and every one of our forwards hits hard – even mean Al now), it will inspire the others. Admittedly I only watched the other semi in fits and starts, but the Crusaders don’t seem the machine they once were.
And as everyone else said, move up in defence and tackle them behind the advantage line – not that you shouldn’t do this every match.
Go the Tahs!!
May 26th 2008 @ 3:25pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 26th 2008 @ 3:25pm | Report comment
Joe B, Nope. Said like a good forward but completely wrong. Don’t tinker with the backline. It works just fine. Did anyone get thro lately? Nope. The risk is that you completely destroy the team’s attack. Did they score many tries last week? yes. 4, Horne, Beale, Tuqiri and Burgess.
Ben C, I like it very much. Seems familiar!!!! But who cares about originality.
Stillmissit, in the darker weeks of this season, we were in total agreement about the handling skills but they have improved significantly in the past few weeks. Better skills and more confidence.
I didn’t know SNK was a goal kicker. Are you sure? It surprised me that he wasnt a goal kicker, given that he has such a prodigious punt kick.
I think they have Turner as the second option now that Sheehan is on the bench. Not sure that he is the best option, as he seems to be having second season blues and lack of confidence with his hands, although not last week.
I agree with most of your missive, particularly putting pressure on them, except I would emphasise more and wider back line play and sooner, particularly from the high kick.
May 26th 2008 @ 3:33pm
formeropenside said | May 26th 2008 @ 3:33pm | Report comment
joe_b – every aussie wanted the Canes to win? Thats a big call.
May 26th 2008 @ 3:36pm
joe b said | May 26th 2008 @ 3:36pm | Report comment
Stillmissit, It’ll be up front that it’s won we well know (even dreamt last night of playing Lyons — if he’s fit and ready — at hooker, or partnering Baxter at prop) and yet if our pivot — hopefully SNK in this one — can replicate some of the territorial pin-point kicking (Beale’s brilliant touch finder that got us a 5-meter lineout against the Sharks on Saturday early in the piece) it’ll certainly help our forwards’ campaign, though watching the Saders ratchet up the intensity level in that 2nd half to an amazing frenetic pace is something our boys will only be able to bring to check by putting in some extra big ‘hard hits’ on the red & blacks to quieten them down.
Which brings us to refs. If it’s someone from RSA, Marius Jonker for mine as he’s not easily intimidated by local parochial crowds.
Ben
“2. Invite the Crusaders around for a seafood BBQ the night before the match”
Apparently Robbie has banned any such socialising till day break Sunday.
May 26th 2008 @ 4:06pm
joe b said | May 26th 2008 @ 4:06pm | Report comment
LeftArm, “Don’t tinker with the backline.”
Exactly what I was saying a few weeks back when Tahu (and Lyons and Rocky) returned from injury, but this is on their home turf where everything stakes up in their favour and as Link and Knuckles have both said in the past, “sometimes you need the ‘x factor’”. This guy Timana was brilliant for the Kangaroos when he played: he’s a ‘big game’ player and either at inside or outside centre would I think have the impact we desperately need in that first 50-55 minutes. If we’re going to win it, it’s where it’s going to be won; the CCs will never lie down in a home final, bet on that.
Formeropenside: “every aussie wanted the Canes to win? That’s a big call.”
Simply meaning we wanted the ‘home final’ at Homebush.
May 26th 2008 @ 4:59pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 26th 2008 @ 4:59pm | Report comment
Instead of tinkering, Tell Horne to go flat out for 50 minutes and then bring Tahu on earlier in the second half at 13. But let the current players continue to do what they are already doing.
A team will always perform better than just one man, no matter what. Anyway, SNK slips into 10 on many occasions during a game anyway. It works well as it changes the dynamic of the back line and challenges the defence further. He and Kurtley play a slightly different style.
I didnt want to go to Homebush, particularly as SFS wasnt full but had a real buzz about it, probably ’cause everyone could see the play, unlike Homebush. (Don’t bother answering this bit!!)
May 26th 2008 @ 5:30pm
stillmissit said | May 26th 2008 @ 5:30pm | Report comment
LeftArmSpinner
I am sure that SNK was a kicker in his first season with the Tahs as a back up to the turnstyle. He did OK, certainly better than Kurtley at the moment, but nothing brilliant.
Joe B
it is always up front where it is won – we are in total agreement. I assumed that we would all agree that without the ball you’ve got nothing. Any prancing pony of an ex back that questions this is delusional.
To all on this thread
It seems that most of us agree that with some dedication and guts this could be won. This is a huge change from any other final the Waratahs have been in as I havent felt this hopeful (Hesitated over confident) for a long, long time.
Keep in mind though that I don’t have a great track record. I only came 3rd out of 9 in our family tipping comp and was thrashed by my partners 20yr old boy.
May 26th 2008 @ 5:47pm
stillmissit said | May 26th 2008 @ 5:47pm | Report comment
Another Thing mentioned by Joe B. – The referee is critical to this game.
If it’s Jonathan Kaplan we are in deep stumpf and the problem is he is still the No1 ref in SA. Craig Joubert No2 would do a much better, although pretty pedantic, job of the final or they could throw the whole game open to chance and make a political appointment.
My guess is that it will be Kaplan and so the boys had better be ‘Yes Sir’ ‘No Sir’ or they will be penalised off the pitch in several flashes of the wild whistler. Never seen him do a good balanced game involving an Australian side yet.
Strike one to the Crusaders.
May 26th 2008 @ 6:20pm
Yikes said | May 26th 2008 @ 6:20pm | Report comment
Stillmissit – the ref has been announced, Mark Lawrence. He has been the best performed of the SA refs in my opinion.
May 26th 2008 @ 6:22pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 26th 2008 @ 6:22pm | Report comment
Stillmissit,
Randwick have proven over many decades, that you can win any game of rugby with 40%, if you have those brilliant, quick thinking, speedy “fast twitch” backs.
Tahs have plenty twitchers! Just let ‘em do the job!!