Can the All Blacks win in Sydney?
Roar Guru By ohtani\'s jacket, 21 Jul 2008 The Crowd is a Roar Guru
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- Ali Williams, Black Caps, Brad Thorn, ELVs, FINA, Giteau, Graham Henry, Luke Burgess, New Zealand, Rugby Union, Schalk Burger, Stephen Larkham, Sydney, Test match, wallabies
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In anticipation of the media frenzy building either side of the Tasman, and the thousand generic answers Henry, Deans, Hansen, and Smith are bound to give, I’ll avoid the Deans versus Henry trap and pose a rugby question instead: can the All Blacks win in Sydney?
The All Blacks entered the season in rebuilding mode, and due to injuries and lack of depth, have taken on something of an underdog tag, which is exactly what Graham Henry wants.
The Wallabies always lift for a Bledisloe Test and never have a shortage of belief in their camp.
They’re always happy to talk up their chances, regardless of who’s coaching them.
Sydney has never been the happiest of hunting grounds for the All Blacks, but the way I see it, the Test breaks down into three key areas:
1. The Battle Upfront:
It goes without saying that this is an area the All Blacks will be focusing on after their disappointing performance in Dunedin.
I think it would be folly to expect anything other than parity in the set pieces.
Richard Loe made a great point in the paper today, regarding the Australian scrum: “(Deans) won’t be overly worried about their scrum. The Wallaby props are fine when they just try to prop the scrum – as opposed to trying to out-scrummage their marker. That’s when they come a cropper but, if they play just to survive, they generally do okay.”
With or without Vickerman, the Wallabies have an advantage in the lineouts, but under the new ELVs it takes tactical acumen to exploit this area of the game, and I could be wrong, but I think the Wallabies will run at us, since they prefer that type of game.
Therefore, I expect a fierce contest at the breakdown. I think most people would agree that this was the area where the Wallabies won the Test in Perth.
Henry is almost certain to break up the Adam Thompson-Jerome Kaino-Rodney So’oialo trio and play specialist openside Daniel Braid.
It’s a big ask for Braid to replicate his form for Auckland at Test level, which is why Henry will be hoping that Ali Williams lasts the entire Test and that Brad Thorn doesn’t confuse the tight exchanges with State of Orign flare-ups.
Having a genuine fetcher in the number seven jersey is only part of the solution. The All Blacks also need to tidy up their defence in and around the ruck areas and improve their workrate in general.
There’s no denying that Schalk Burger had a field day without McCaw and Collins, or that New Zealand currently lack a blindside who can clean out the rucks, smash the opposition back and make sure they don’t get over the advantage line.
2. The Battle of the First Fives
I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Matt Giteau is a genuine first five-eighths at Test level, but then I thought Stephen Larkham was an odd looking first five at first, as he proceeded with the “Silencing of the Lambs.”
I’m a big believer that a first five is only as good as his halfback and second five.
No one rates New Zealand’s Andy Ellis, to the point where many regard him as the worst All Black halfback in the last 20 years. Even the All Black management have hinted at giving Jimmy Cowan a start, but they’re much of a muchness, swapping like for like.
Australia’s Luke Burgess played perhaps his weakest Test for the Wallabies in Perth, but looks more the genuine article than anyone New Zealand can field.
With McAlister and Mauger in Europe and Nick Evans unwanted, New Zealand not only have no-one to cover first five if Carter’s injured, they also lack a kicking option at second five, which is where the Wallabies may hold an advantage.
Rugby viewers will hope that both Carter and Giteau use their passing skills to spark attacking play, but the reality is that this is Test match rugby and Test match rugby is won on small margins.
Carter has one of the most overrated kicking games of any first five in a long time and Giteau isn’t much with the boot. Both of them can provide deft kicks in the opposition 22, but this may be the weakest the two sides have been in a long time in regards to tactical kicking.
3. The Mental Battle
Back in the Eales/MacQueen era, I always remarked that the difference in the national anthems (Advance Australia Fair vs. God Defend New Zealand) summed up the difference in the Australian and New Zealand mentality.
Time and time again, we lost the mental battle against Australia.
Eventually our skill level overtook Australia, and we began to beat them with regularity, but the mentality hasn’t changed. The Wallabies never give up until the final whistle, whereas the All Blacks hang their heads as the clock ticks down.
One of the most pleasing aspects of Henry’s reign has been the All Blacks’ ability to close out Tests. Yet in recent times they’ve regressed.
If next weekend’s Test were to resemble the 2006 Bledisloe Test in Brisbane, would anyone back the All Blacks to close it out?
The All Blacks are simple creatures really. They like to dominate up front and provide a platform for their backs to attack.
If they’re leading by more than a converted try, they swagger around the park. If the lead is less than seven, they lose all structure.
Building an early lead against Henry’s All Blacks is not paramount. They’ll chip away at that, and if anything, they prefer to play the scoreboard, similar to how the Black Caps prefer chasing a total.
The Black Caps comparison is pretty apt.
They don’t have a bowler who relishes the death and the All Blacks panic defending a shrinking or evaporating lead, so if the Wallabies remain in striking distance, that will be the ultimate Test of Henry’s “underdogs.”
So, can the All Blacks win in Sydney?
I don’t fancy our chances, but coming off a loss they’ll be hellbent not to make it two in a row. If Henry fights the temptation to play it cute with his selections, and plays his best side, regardless of who’s in Europe or going to Europe, we at least stand a chance.
If everyone passes the fitness test, we might be in with a good chance. If the Test won’t go our way, you might as well forget about it.
Home Tests you can bluff. Away Tests are cruel and exposing.
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July 21st 2008 @ 9:10am
sheek said | July 21st 2008 @ 9:10am | Report comment
Ohtani,
Perceptive & well-written, although I may not agree with all of it. Richard Loe is absolutely right. Generally, we Aussies only want our props to hold our own. Through necessity, unlike NZL & SAF, we rarely have the props to use as offensive weapons in the scrum. A classic recent example of a good Wallaby prop capable of holding his own was Bill Young.
In any case, we’re wired differently. We want our teams to beat opponents with dazzzling backline wizardry. Which is why so many of us continue to go on & on about Mark Ella. Which is also why many of us believe Eddie Jones & John Connolly betrayed the Aussie legacy.
I would have thought Dan Carter a contender for NZL’s greatest ever #10. After reading your article, it’s obvious you wouldn’t/mightn’t agree. On the other hand, I would disagree even with many of my compatriots on Matt Giteau. I’ve long thought flyhalf was his correct position.
Again, his lack of supreme tactical kicking skills is not seen as a drawback by us Aussies. We want our #10 to set the backline alive, like Mark Ella & Steve Larkham. As with our props holding their own in the scrum, our flyhalfs should be competent tactical kickers at worst. Different perceptions. The English lionize their Jonny Wilkinson & Rob Andrew, the Saffies their Naas Botha. We idolize our running Mark Ella & Steve Larkham.
Yes, tests are firstly played in the mind. In the late 1990s/early 2000s, the Wallabies were smarter than the ABs & Boks, & famously against the Lions, who we had no right to beat in that 2001 series.
Secondly, rugby tests are usually won upfront, then &/or at the breakdown. You can bluff your way in one area, but not both. Of course, I could go on & on, but the reality is scoring more points than your opponent. Whether by scoring more tries, or denying him any points.
Personnel wise, not much has changed with the Wallabies. Great credit to Robbie Deans then for improving the attitude of the players. The scrum is now competent, not a weakness easily exploited. And the players are expressing themselves, unlike previous years. It was always there, but not nurtured. The continuous improvement in the Wallabies is almost frightening.
The Wallabies are enjoying their rugby again. And that spells bad news for their opponents. And it’s an indictment of the coaching & man-management skills of Eddie Jones & John Connolly.
July 21st 2008 @ 9:20am
LeftArmSpinner said | July 21st 2008 @ 9:20am | Report comment
Jacket, I commenced reading your post with interest as the mainstream media were trotting out the same duplicated dross as usual.
You began well and then left reality in the same way as the Boks coach De Villiers.
1. “I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Matt Giteau is a genuine first five-eighths at Test level” followed by
2. “Carter has one of the most overrated kicking games of any first five in a long time and Giteau isn’t much with the boot.”
3. “Time and time again, we lost the mental battle against Australia. Eventually our skill level overtook Australia, and we began to beat them with regularity, but the mentality hasn’t changed. The Wallabies never give up until the final whistle, whereas the All Blacks hang their heads as the clock ticks down. ”
I find these bizarre and ilinformed comments. DeVilliers makes more sense in his pre and post game verbal meanderings that masquerade as a press conference.
Carter and Giteau are the two best rugby players in the world in the critical 5/8 position over the past 12 months and will continue to be complete footballers for years to come. The tackle, kick, run, pass and dominate at the highest level of skill and effectiveness.
Skill doesn’t beat mental, ever, ever ever.
Ohtani, I can only conclude that you must have put your jacket over your head, blinding you from reality and restricting air flow.
July 21st 2008 @ 9:42am
Sam Taulelei said | July 21st 2008 @ 9:42am | Report comment
Nice article Ohtani, don’t agree with some of your points and I couldn’t believe reading Loe’s comments about the Aussie scrum which echoed my own. In the past All Blacks rugby was pragmatic and hard nosed even if we weren’t the best skilled team on the park we knew how to win games better than most, we had that mental capacity to tough it out. Ever since 1998 that mental toughness has been questioned and against the Wallabies until recently they knew how to win those close games better than us.
Like your comment in another thread until someone strings together consecutive victories we won’t know how good any of the 3N teams really are and until Australia end their record of losses in NZ and SA any progress under Deans can’t be immeasurably better than any of their previous coaches regardless of how well they are enjoying their rugby.
July 21st 2008 @ 9:48am
Jerry said | July 21st 2008 @ 9:48am | Report comment
Skill doesn’t beat mental, ever, ever ever.>>>
Er, yes it does. Often in fact.
July 21st 2008 @ 11:17am
David said | July 21st 2008 @ 11:17am | Report comment
The comments about the Wallabies enjoying themselves seems to be quite true. It is interesting that the comments about Carter and Giteau have ignored the use by Robbie Deans of Berrick Barnes at inside centre. Suddenly the creativity of the Australian backline seems multi-pronged with the switch of Barnes and Giteau and the freedom to think instinctively. Both players are providing options in either running or tactical kicking which opposition teams will find hard to plan for. Both players overshadowed their Springbok opponents – I think it is fair to say that Butch James had a neglible impact on the game compared with the two Aussies. Is Dan Carter getting the same support from his inside centre? The selection of Ryan Cross as Mortlock’s back-up is also very shrewd – it is hard to see how Timana Tahu will fit into the team with Cross playing so well. One could argue that the years spent in league have significantly hardened Cross as the type of tackle he made on Habana is quite common in league – the use of the hand to reach around the body and rip at the ball in the motion of maiking the tackle is not only talent but the product of many hard games of league with the Roosters.
July 21st 2008 @ 11:59am
ohtani's jacket said | July 21st 2008 @ 11:59am | Report comment
Sam,
Ever since the game turned professional, the All Blacks have seemed less and less pragmatic. The most worrying thing about our last three losses are the signs that a decline has set in. Some might call it hubris, but most great rugby sides have an extremely short peak, and without channeling Kearns or Fitzsimons too much, this All Blacks side may have peaked on the end of year tour in 2006.
I have a tremendous amount of respect for the job Henry did in his first year as coach, but I think he’s facing an even greater challenge this time round. I don’t think scraping to a fourth Tri-Nations title in a row is particularly important. We need a young, fresh All Blacks squad who are firing in 2010-11.
Unfortunately for Henry, he’s on a two year contract and therefore short term results will determine his fate. It would be a tremendous coaching feat if he guides this young, depleted All Blacks team to a Tri-Nations title, but then you’d have to wonder: How did they blow a sure thing in 2007?
July 21st 2008 @ 11:59am
True Tah said | July 21st 2008 @ 11:59am | Report comment
OJ,
the All Blacks back row is going to be in for a torrid time come saturday if Richie is not playing- I can’t see how Thompson, Kaino and So-olao are going to match Big Cliff, GS and Rocky. Lauaki really has to start getting involved when he’s on the pitch, to me he seems lazy and disinterested.
Cliff hadn’t really played well in the gold jersey until saturday night, I have a feeling the Big Man will take it up one more notch this saturday, and hopefully smash the All Black pack.
I hope Vickermann is fit, likewise Im sure you’re relishing the return of Williams and Thorn, as Boric and O’Neill were shown up at Dunedin.
July 21st 2008 @ 12:13pm
ohtani's jacket said | July 21st 2008 @ 12:13pm | Report comment
Regarding my comments on Carter and Giteau, both of them are playmakers with the ball in hand and both kick well in attacking opportunities, but I maintain that neither are great tactical kickers.
The All Black backs have been drilled to keep the ball in touch to the extent that Carter rarely finds touch when he needs to. Hell, under the old laws, Carter missed touch from free kicks! He makes the occasional thumping clearance, but on the whole, New Zealand have some of the worst clearance kicking you’re likely to see from a top international side.
We also have one of the weakest lineouts. And now we have a problem claiming the ball from a restart.
This is a three-fold problem and it burnt us in the first half in Dunedin.
Will Deans attack this area? Do Australia have anyone who can exploit it?
July 21st 2008 @ 12:30pm
Peter K said | July 21st 2008 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
OT – A major reason he lost ‘a sure thing’ in 2007 was all there is that statement. They did think it was a sure thing, and then when it went against them they mentally could not adjust.
There is no such thing as a weak AB side.
However I believe the Wallabies have the advantage in the locks, the back row, and the centres.
The AB’s have the advantage in the front row, and the back 3 and the halves.
Sure to be a great game.
Anyone know who the ref is? I hope it is Mark Lawrence , he is easily the best SA ref.
July 21st 2008 @ 12:30pm
ohtani's jacket said | July 21st 2008 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
True Tah,
McCaw will ressume training this week and there’s a few rumours going round that he’ll play in either Sydney or Auckland, but I don’t think we should rush him back and Braid probably deserves a start.
Braid was the New Zealand Rugby Player of the Year last year, and there’s only so many times that you can put him in the Junior All Blacks or NZ Maori before he gets fed up and plys his trade overseas.
The big threat to NZ is Elsom, IMO. New Zealanders used to laugh at Elsom a bit, because he gave away so many penalties, but he’s a much improved player and if Henry made up his mind to axe Collins then Kieran Read was the obvious choice at blindside.
I can’t help but wonder if Read playing for Canterbury was part of the reason Henry “rested” him. I hope he goes on the end of year tour.