I’m working on the ‘answer’

the simplest ‘high level’ answer though is that recent number 1,2,3 seems far less of a ’stab in the dark’ as in the early days of the draft when the Richard Loundners and Anthony Baniks were around (all respect to those 2 players for the abilities they DID have).

In recent times, the top 3 players have all been ‘hits’, rather than ‘misses’, with perhaps the injury riddled Scott Gumbleton the exception, but, touch wood for him that he SHOULD come good.

Down the list, the question I guess is – do all the selections get the same priority of opportunity? Are clubs more focussed on giving the high picks priority access to match experience etc – - or, are these higher picks just that much readier to step straight in.

The success of some rookie players, has illustrated that those with a tenuous lifeline who ARE able to step up, do the hard work, and make the most of what would definitively be their LAST chance – - – well, that’s a pretty rich little gold mine too. And – - perhaps the domain more so of those players who DO need to be given a couple extra years past the age of 17-18.

In recent years the top 5 picks
2004:
1 Brett Deledio, 2 Jarryd Roughead, 3 Ryan Griffen, 4 Richard Tambling, 5 Lance Franklin
2005:
1 Marc Murphy, 2 Dale Thomas, 3, Xavier Ellis, 4 Josh Kennedy, 5 Scott Pendlebury
2006:
1 Bryce Gibbs, 2 Scott Gumbleton, 3 Lachlan Hansen, 4 Matt Leuenberger, 5 Travis Boak
2007:
1 Matt Kreuzer, 2 Trent Cotchin, 3 Chris Masten, 4 Cale Morton, 5 Jarrad Grant

the common thread here being that really only injury has thwarted players above from making an immediate impact, in the main, even in their first year – - especially the midfielder types who often get to slot onto a back flank or forward pocket whilst building up their ‘tank’ (as Gary Ablett Jnr did).
A player like Lachie Hansen was a bit skinny last year, but, over the last 6 weeks has really started to show that he will be a class key position player for North.

When you step away from the top 5 picks, even staying within round 1 picks, there are gems, but, less obviously -
2004 – 6 Tom Williams, 7 Jordan Lewis, 9 Jordan Russell, 13 Matthew Bate, 14 Angus Monfries, then to 17 Andrew McQualter (at x-roads, perhaps now a run with tagger) and 18 Cameron Wood.
2005 – 7 Paddy Ryder, 11 Shaun Higgins, 12 Nathan Jones, 14 Grant Birchall, 16 Richard Douglas, then at 17 Darren Pfeiffer (traded by Adel to Carl and a fringe player there) and 18 Max Bailey (injury riddled big man)
2006 – 7 Joel Selwood, 10 Nathan Brown, 11 Andrejs Everitt, 13 Jack Riewoldt, 18 Leroy Jetta
2007 – 7 Rhys Palmer, 12 Cyril Rioli, 13 Brad Ebert, 17 Harry Taylor

So – - the value probably sits within the top 5 to top 7 where there is almost a guarrantee of quality – - with existing ’screening’ & profiling programs – - -and, that’s a good thing, it shows an efficiency of the talent pathway. Far better than just throwing 100,000 soccer juniors at a wall and seeing who sticks.

Does any other, fully professional football code or physical game play so many blokes under the age of 21? Union and League do it a bit but AFL seem to do it a lot more….again, I could be wrong.

I asked this question some weeks back, that is, just how effective are the 1st choice draft picks historically? I don’t recall anyone providing an answer.

The best kid in any sport at age 17 may not be the best by age 20, & so on. It is often a lottery. Then there’s the profiling question – what if a champion potential doesn’t feel comfortable at the club he’s drafted to? There’s the human factor often overlooked.

There is currently an ‘in your face’ example with Wallaby scrumhalf Luke Burgess. At 24, they guy is no spring chicken. After 3 seasons with the Brumbies, they released in favour of a potentially better player in Josh Holmes, telling Burgess they couldn’t see him improving significantly.

Burgess is then picked up by the Waratahs & unexpectedly blossoms, ending up in the national team, while Holmes flounders at the Brumbies. You can’t blame the Brumbies, that’s just the way it is sometimes.

Holmes is still an awesome talent, but the message is, when it comes to human nature, we’re dealing with an inexact science. Therefore the time & money AFL clubs spend attempting to secure the best talent coming through is overrated.

Money would be better spent looking for kids who fit the club’s profile at that time, & desperately want to play for that particular club. IMHO.

Look at them now and it is the access they have had to the talent over successive drafts that has given their entire roster a lift. Meanwhile teams like my beloved Roos struggle along, come in 8-10th year after year and never get that chance because they try…

Yet i no what you mean the teams at the current top of the ladder have managed to pick up some bargains.

The number 1 pick is definatly the most valuable pick in the draft.