Only four teams can win the EPL
Roar Pro
By Gabriel Knowles, 15 Aug 2008 The Crowd is a Roar Pro
David Gallop must wish Sir Alex Ferguson coached the Bulldogs instead of Manchester United. Considering the Scotsman stood firm in the face of a 70 million pound bid for Ronaldo, Sonny Bill wouldn’t have got halfway to the airport under Ferguson’s watch.
At least Gallop can console himself with the knowledge that his league is more competitive.
Anyone could win the NRL, but only four teams are really in the running to take out the Premier League.
And even that’s fast becoming a two horse race.
Especially given that Tottenham look set to lose Dimitar Berbatov, the man whose goals have helped put them on the cusp of an elusive Champions League place, to United for 28 million pounds.
Retaining Ronaldo and the imminent acquisition of Berbatov could be the defining deals of the upcoming season.
It will be interesting to see how Berbatov meshes into a frontline that was irresistible at times last season. Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez have an almost sixth-sense like understanding, and with Ronaldo to return from injury shortly, there’ll be no shortage competition for spots.
Berbatov may just become the most expensive impact player in the league not wearing a Chelsea tracksuit.
The defending champions have the inside running, although they’ll have to rely less on the aeing guile of Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs in midfield and do without the tactical nous Carlos Queiroz.
Ferguson’s long-time assistant has been crucial to United’s recent successes and his departure to manage Portugal is said to be one of the major reasons Ronaldo wanted to leave.
Michael Carrick’s consistent form, and the emergence of Nani at the backend of last season, and a fully fit Owen Hargreaves, should be enough to see them over the line again.
The biggest threat to Chelsea’s title tilt is their embarrassment of riches.
Big name players such as Michael Ballack and Andrei Shevchenko don’t take to sitting on the bench well. New manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has the unenviable job keeping all those overpaid egos in check. But ‘Big Phil’ has enough tickets on himself to mix it with the best of them.
Much will depend on how new signing Deco slots into an already crowded midfield with Frank Lampard, Michael Essien and Ballack also competing for places.
Portuguese newcomer Jose Bosingwa should keep the Stamford Bridge crowd entertained with his marauding runs from right back.
And the petulant Didier Drogba looks to have found peace after an unsettled 2007/08.
Drogba at his best is a handful for even the leading defenders in Europe. If the grossly under-qualified Avram Grant managed to make United wait until the final day of the last term to clinch the title, Big Phil will have to win the Champions League if the title eludes Chelsea again.
Otherwise he’ll have to massage his own jobless ego next off-season.
Arsenal must be quietly confident of crashing the party this season. They led for much of last season and only finished four points adrift in the end.
In the end, it was their lack of depth that undid them and it could well be their undoing this time around, too.
Despite bringing in France international Samir Nasri from Marseille, they’ve lost first team players in Mathieu Flamini, Alex Hleb and Gilberto Silva.
Arsene Wenger will need to buy another player who isn’t a teenager to ensure Arsenal greatest achievement this season isn’t in making a profit on the transfer market again.
Rafa Benitez, on the other hand, could learn a thing or two from thrift-minded Wenger.
The Liverpool manager seems intent on breaking the bank, with little to show for it on the domestic front. Signing Robbie Keane for nearly 20 million pounds to partner Fernando Torres up front when his Euro 2008 winning strike partner David Villa was reportedly available for a similar price could come back to haunt Benitez.
Chasing Gareth Barry when he already has (the arguably better) Xabi Alonso was just plain disruptive.
Given the resources he’s had access to, this could be Benitez’s last shot at it with Liverpool.
Unless he can put out a consistent line-up, Liverpool will stay bottom of the top four.
Love this article? Nominate it for The Roar’s Armchair Sports Writer Award. Or vote now for this week’s nominated articles.
Enjoy sports? Enjoy a bargain? All Sports Online has your favourite sporting brands at up to 70% off. Online only, premium quality sporting goods and merchandise at discounted prices. Get a deal now.
Do you have what it takes to become a sports writer? Write for the roar
Football articles
- Phoenix need more than flash in the pan crowds (133)
- ‘New football’ fans may help save the game in Australia (124)
- Does Tasmania have a case for A-League inclusion? (119)
- What happened in Port Said was not a football riot (118)
- Magilton struggling to make a mark (68)
- Socceroos screwed over by FIFA, again (41)
- Gulf influence cripples the FFA again (40)
- Melbourne derby reveals tale of two journeys
- Midweek regional matches not hitting the mark
- O’ so close for John: How JON almost landed the biggest job in sport (13)
- Capello ‘walks’ from England’s top job (13)
- Fabio Capello quits as England manager after Terry fallout (4)
- Kewell confident Victory can make charge
- FIFA decision a blow to Olyroos
- Melbourne derby reveals tale of two journeys (0)
- O’ so close for John: How JON almost landed the biggest job in sport (13)
- Capello ‘walks’ from England’s top job (13)
- Why Manchester United are never really beaten (13)
- Die Lowen a chance for a Bundesliga rise? (2)
- Hey, Victory! Give them kids a go (9)
- The problem with Melbourne Victory’s ‘hole’ season (25)
Spiro Zavos said | August 15th 2008 @ 8:39am | Report comment
The salary cap argument insists that spectators like competitions where every team gets a chance of winning through the restraints of buying a champion team. But even with salary caps the usual suspects come up trumps. Without a salary cap you can build dynasties like Manchester United, and Arsenal and Liverpool in the past.
My feeling is that the spectators love dynasties and glamour teams and players. Golf’s TV audience has plummeted by as third without Tiger Woods. Basketball has become a minor sport in Australia, following the boom during the Michael Jordan era.
So Manchester United are making the Premier League the world’s most-watched tournament. I don’t believe this would have happened if manager Sir Alex Ferguson did not have the chance to buy the team he wants to put on the field.
Mick of Newie said | August 15th 2008 @ 9:43am | Report comment
Spiro
I am no ManU fan but to give Fergy his credit, he built the team before he started buying. The victories of the 90′s were built mostly around their youth products like Beckham, Gary & Phil Neville, Giggs, Scholes and bargain buys like Dennis Irwin, Peter Schemichal, Roy Keane and Eric Cantona. Man U have spent $$ in recent years but even then they generally bought players on the way up like van Nistelry, Ferdinand, Rooney and Ronaldo.
Man U didn’t make the EPL the most watched league in the world, they were just fortunate that their reign at the top co-incided with the true globalisation of international sport through pay TV and the related establishment of the EPL where for the first time in Europe the clubs took control of their own destiny from the old boys clubs at the football league and ran the EPL as a business in its own right.
What is interesting is that in the EPL supporters of say Bolton or West Ham have different asperations for the season as a Man U or Chelsea fan yet they still fork out big $$ to watch. Contrast that with the salary capped leagues in Australia where crowds rapidly decline the moment supporters realise it is not their clubs year (eg Penrith Panthers story in SMH yesterday).
We accept the salary cap in Aust almost without question. The logic appears to be you can be a bandwagon jumper, don’t support your club in any committed way just wait for the cycle to come around hopefully every 10 years or so and leap on.
Ando said | August 15th 2008 @ 10:02am | Report comment
I’m just interested in how Tottenham are meant to be a top four team when the top four IMO is ManU, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool.
The Keane over Villa comment could be explained by the fact that Keane is an established Premier League player who is accustomed to the conditions in England and is a proven goalscorer in the country. Villa might have required time to settle to the pace and style of the league, regardless of his understanding with Torres.
Kazama said | August 15th 2008 @ 10:41am | Report comment
Really it is already a two horse race. Arsenal and Liverpool have fallen way behind the global powers that are Chelsea and Man United. It seems Arsenal just doesn’t have the money to field the sort of teams it had in the late nineties / early naughties. Liverpool seems more obsessed with Europe than the EPL and their line-ups since Rafa took charge, or perhaps even before that, reflect a more European mentality and that just doesn’t translate into domestic success. Unless another billionaire steps in and takes over a club, there won’t be any change to this for a while.
As for a salary cap in the EPL, I don’t think you’ll ever have that situation – the big four have become far too important to English Football and its subsequent success in Europe for the FA to endanger that by introducing a salary cap.
Ben of Phnom Penh said | August 15th 2008 @ 10:44am | Report comment
The problem is that such dominance takes much of the interest out of the league itself and tends to focus it on the big clubs and the relegation battle. This works well for TV audiences as lucrative markets in Asia can be sated with a few important games, however this does tend to reduce interest in the results of mid-table clashes. The Bundesliga model, where clubs expenditure is linked to their revenues, is an interesting one and results in a more even competition whilst still allowing those clubs with big turnover, such as Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen, to build a legacy. Though how, on that basis, Dortmund continues to flounder is beyond me.
Pippinu said | August 15th 2008 @ 10:49am | Report comment
I agree with Kazama – looking through the respective lists of the “big 4″, and clearly those of Arsenal and Liverpool are not the quality of “Chelsea” and “Man Utd”.
Having said that, Wenger is a great manager and I’m sure Arsenal will push the other two all the way till the end of the season (playing the most attractive football again).
Liverpool?
Perhaps another good CL campaign beckons?
Tottenham?
Forget about it.
The only other interest is whether Everton, Pompey and Villa can maintain their possies from last year and whether any of Hull City, Stoke City and West Brom can survive the drop.
Kazama said | August 15th 2008 @ 11:42am | Report comment
Ben
Yes, the Bundesliga model is an interesting one, but you have to wonder if it is stopping the (bigger) German clubs from having much of an impact in Europe. As for Dortmund, it seems as if it there is something wrong with that club at the administrative level and this is spilling onto the pitch. They remind me a bit of Richmond in the AFL, another team that seems to fail no matter how many chances / concessions it is given.
Pippinu
There’s no dispute that Wenger is a good manager, and that his teams play an attractive brand of football, but as we’ve seen recently in the EPL to win the league you need players that have experience to know when to defend and make your opponents come to you so the opportunities to score present themselves, like Mourinho’s Chelsea which won two titles by ‘grinding out’ results (admittedly in a different way to A-League teams, like those coached by John Kosmina, try to grind out results. Mourinho’s Chelsea were hardly a team of ‘long-ball thugs’, they were a quality team, a well organised team and deserving champions). Looking at Arsenal’s list, I just don’t see enough of said experience; I see a bunch of exciting young talents that I think will provide us with plenty of action but give their own supporters more than a few nervous moments, and this will be Arsenal’s downfall this season IMO. They’re a bit thin in defence as well, and this isn’t a good thing for a team aspiring to be EPL champions, in comparison to Chelsea’s and Man Utd’s defences.
Pippinu said | August 15th 2008 @ 11:57am | Report comment
Kazama
Sagna, Gallas, Toure and Clichy make up a handy back four – it’s a question of whether they’ll stay on the park for most of the season, because there ain’t much else (to plug defensive holes).
To lose both Hleb and Flamini makes for a much weakened midfield – I also note that Cesc and Rosicky are injured – so I’m wondering who’s left for the opener!! Nasri and Walcott??
No argument about the quality upfront: Adebayor, Van Persie and Eduardo – but the latter two have their own fitness problems.
I’d back Arsenal in a 21 round season – but 38 rounds – that’s a bloody long season when there ain’t much back up!
Kazama said | August 15th 2008 @ 12:36pm | Report comment
Pippinu: “it’s a question of whether they’ll stay on the park for most of the season, because there ain’t much else (to plug defensive holes).”
This is what I meant by “They’re a bit thin in defence.” I have no problem with Gallas and Toure, quality players, maybe a little rash at times (though so are Ferdinand and Carvalho) but as for Sagna and Clichy, they’re not exactly in the same league as Chelsea and Man Utd’s selection of wingbacks, IMO at least. Even Liverpool’s wingbacks are better than Sagna and Clichy. I think if you put Liverpool and Arsenal’s squads together, you’d have a team easily capable of winning the title. As they both are, you are right, they’ll struggle over the 38-game marathon that is the EPL to keep the pace with the much deeper squads of Chelsea and Man United.
You’d have to wonder how Sydney FC’s paper-thin squad would do in a 38-game season. I think once the A-League has 10 teams, you’ll see teams having a better balance in their squads to deal with the increased length of season. Assuming they can find enough good players, that is. What we don’t want is 10 copies of Gerard Houllier’s Liverpool – i.e. teams packed with Brendon Renaud-esq ‘squad players’ – which contained such superstars as Igor Biscan, Salif Diao, Bruno Cheyrou and Bernard Diomede. I’m going off the topic a bit here but maybe I’ve touched on an issue teams may have with a longer A-League season once Nth Qld and the GC are in.
Lazza said | August 15th 2008 @ 1:33pm | Report comment
Interesting to read that the RL is backing off from it’s threat of legal action against Williams and Toulon.
I think someone has whispered in their ear that having the “Salary Cap” tested in court might not be such a great idea. Perhaps the AFL have got involved as well since their dreams of becoming a national sport would die a quick death if Aussie Rules returned to being a free market competition.
Any sport that relies on being a “Socialist Collective” to survive can’t be that strong. One court challenge and it’s all over!