Ten into eight won’t go, so hang on to your hats

With only two rounds left before the finals, the last five places in the eight are still giving mathematicians nightmares. Can Adelaide finish fourth? Can Richmond still sneak into the finals? Well, yes, if, and maybe.

But these are just two of the many questions and answers being thrown around as we watch what is, apart from the one outstanding team at the top, developing into one of the keenest battles we’ve seen for years to decide who finishes where.

Second and third places are, of course, already decided, too, but the Hawks and the Western Bulldogs showed by losing to teams outside the top eight last weekend that they will be vulnerable come finals time to sides hitting their best form at the right time.

As well as the top three, some pundits were declaring the whole eight ’set in stone’ midway through the season.

But now there are plenty of permutations, with Sydney, who looked home and hosed for fourth spot a few weeks ago, in real danger of dropping right out of the eight, and Richmond, despite their shocker against Adelaide in round 19, still a remote chance of playing finals if they win their last two and other results go their way.

St Kilda aren’t safely in the eight yet, either, even though their two remaining games are at the Telstra Dome, where I think they will win both and it would be a real shock if they lost more than one.

If they do lose to both Adelaide and Essendon, and Richmond beat both Fremantle and Melbourne, which I expect they will, the Tigers would slip two points ahead of the Saints.

If the Saints win one, the Tigers would then have to rely on Sydney losing twice by massive margins to tip the Swans out on percentage.

That’s another doubtful scenario, even allowing for the Swans‘ abysmal recent form.

I think Sydney will lose to Collingwood this week, but should get up in the last game against Brisbane with the advantage of playing at the SCG, which is a big factor in a crunch situation, as Essendon found to their cost in 1996.

But don’t write the Lions off, either.

After their surprise win over the Bulldogs last week, they should be able to beat Carlton at the Gabba on Saturday night, and then, coming off two straight wins, wouldn’t be any pushovers with a finals berth at stake.

Read this week’s Walkley Awards

Adelaide should stay in the eight even if they lose against both the Saints and the Bulldogs, which is what I have budgeted for – but the Crows have certainly stopped the rot since I figured they would win only one, not at least four, of their last six, and fourth spot is certainly not beyond them.

But North Melbourne, the present incumbents in fourth place, are a big chance to stay there, as they look the likely winners over Port Adelaide, the season’s worst-performed team when compared with 2007, in the last game.

Before that the Kangaroos will play the parts of the mice as the Cats give their faithful a final home-ground look at their superb skills, which will leave North hungry for redemption, as well as the double chance.

But things are so tight that Sydney and St Kilda, as well as the Crows and Kangaroos, are still in the hunt for fourth. It could all come down to percentages.

If Geelong, as expected, win their two remaining games they will match Essendon’s feat of 84 premiership points, with only one loss for the season, in 2000.

If all the remaining selections I made before round 17 were to get up, the final ladder, with games won out of the final six in parentheses, would be:

Geelong (6 wins) 84 points
Hawthorn (4) 68
Western Bulldogs (3) 66
North Melbourne (5) 54
Collingwood (4) 52
St Kilda (4) 52
Sydney (2) 50
Adelaide (4) 48
——
Richmond (4) 46
Brisbane (2) 44
Carlton (2) 36
Essendon (2) 32
Port Adelaide (1) 24
Fremantle (2) 20
West Coast (2) 16
Melbourne (1) 12