Bigger A-League won’t affect quality

Redb said | August 29th 2008 @ 9:10am | Report comment

The A League is starting to look like a NSW and QLD league with 3 teams in each state and only 1 team in the other 3 states.

The footprint is resembling the east coast dominated NRL, as the season expands to allow the two new teams the overlap of seasons will increase. Interesting times for both codes in the battle of the hearts and minds.

Redb

The Link said | August 29th 2008 @ 10:11am | Report comment

RedB, I can’t see a battle between NRL and A-League, in fact I am seeing more collaboration, particularly in Newcastle with proposed double headers and in Sydney with FC and the Roosters offering joint ticket offers.

The summer comp of the A-League is a deliberate strategy NOT to compete. Even if the A-League season extents somewhat, it is still a summer comp and therefore not materially in competition.

Redb said | August 29th 2008 @ 10:30am | Report comment

The Link,

yeah I read the Article about the Roosters, Swans and Sydney FC proposing a fan partnership. This has already occured in Melbourne with TeaMelbourne which features the Storm, Melbourne FC (Demons), Racing Vic, Melb Vixens (netball) and Melb Tigers (bball). Interestingly Melbourne Vcitory were offred to join but said no as they did not want to alienate their AFL fan base from oter AFL clubs. With the lowest fan base by far, Melbourne FC would not have turned off other AFL fans.

So far is hasn’t really set the world on fire.

The separate seasons are great for locals fans, but the battle for sponsors is the real issue, and on this there can be little co-operation. The traditional against the new, the NRL wants to re-engage financially struggling fans, FFA wants to add new fans. I’d prefer to be the FFA in this situation.

Redb

Midfielder said | August 29th 2008 @ 10:45am | Report comment

Redb

Your points above are quite valid, however the second Melbourne team will be in Hal 6 giving the southern states 4 / 11 of the Australian sides and NSW & QLD 7 / 11 of the Australian sides. Somewhat a tad to much in NSW & QLD but all in growth areas young and expanding population growth areas.

Re the NRL relative to NRL, I agree FFA is becoming stronger each year and the NRL weaker. I put it down to management I think Obie One, BB & BB team leave the divided NRL board for dead.

Mick of Newie said | August 29th 2008 @ 11:20am | Report comment

Any suggestion that the standard of the A league will not drop with a 25% expansion is fanciful. Buckley is a spin merchant if he thinks there are quality state leaguers who could fill the void.

I am tipping that NQ will become the last chance saloon for hacks and journeymen. A second Melb or Syd team would have far better prospects of attracting quality players and developing youth. Townsville is too small and too remote to have any real long term prospects.

Dave said | August 29th 2008 @ 11:36am | Report comment

Mick of Newie

Interesting point. With 4 new teams in 2 seasons proposed that is 90 players plus 44 youth players added to the current crop. There maybe 10-20 players overseas returning by that time and with perhaps a similar number recruited from overseas (non Oz) then the local state leagues would supply 40-50 of the new players which is really only 1-2 of each teams best players. What it does is give the youger up and comers a chance to further extend time in Oz before even considering going overseas. This is a good thing IMO. As long as teams are competitive and have the opportunites to recruit the best availabe any potential levelling off of the standard would be overcome. Also the training and development of younger players is much better today than it was even 5 years ago.
BTW l like the angle of NQ becoming the mongrel team of HAL aka Leeds Utd of the 70s, Wimbledon of the 80s maybe a great marketing tool

Mick of Newie said | August 29th 2008 @ 11:57am | Report comment

Dave
I don’t doubt the expansion will give opportunities to young players, it will also extend the careers of some journeymen both in the A league and from abroad. But that will be at the expense of the overall standard.
I wish NQ well. Their biggest advantage will be their climate, summer football in FNQ will be interesting. I hope they look to SE Asia in their recruiting to find players well suited to the conditions. My suspicion is that their base for development will be too small and I have reservations about them sharing Townsville with the established Cowboys.

Dave said | August 29th 2008 @ 12:04pm | Report comment

Mick of Newie

With so many players around the world and the world shrinking seemingly daily l hope that enough quality can be brought in to supplement and work with existing players to help the young ones improve enough so quality wont be diminished. No doubt it is a major issue for the league and l think you are right in saying more teams should look to Asia for players. l dont know enough about the NQ region to comment on the sustainability of a football team but hopefully the powers that be have done their homework.

Redb said | August 29th 2008 @ 12:20pm | Report comment

Dave,

No doubt a more ‘blokey’ team from Nth QLD may suit the frontier of FNQ, won’t help them in the ACL though. Rugby league in particular is made for North QLD.

Midfielder,

I think you’ll find Melbourne and Perth are also growing rapidly and are big single markets with just one team.

Redb

jimbo said | August 29th 2008 @ 12:28pm | Report comment

I used to think more teams would mean lower qaulity games, but the quality is there and keeps improving.

There is a steady stream of young Aussie going overseas to make their fame and fortune in football but a bunch of bright yougsters like Zulo, Cole, Payne, Kruse, Minniecon etc etc just keep stepping up to take their place and make a name for themselves.
The clubs make money out of them if they go overseas as well.

Some of the imports of late have been much better quality and providing some gret entertainment too, so no need for the quality of play to fall.

The highlights and best goals of round 2 were provided by the imports and the bright young stars - Dadi, Alemao, Cole, Miller, Rukya, Song and the list goes on.
The improvement in the A-League goes on and on . . .

Michael C said | August 29th 2008 @ 12:28pm | Report comment

I’m mainly curious about the broadcast rights.

Firstly - - what ‘expansion’ clauses were in the initial deal for 7 years at $120million (?) - - does a 10 team, or a 12 team league allow possible re negotiation?
Will there be enough money to go around, as these 4 new teams come in with increased start up costs compared to the existing teams - - lists have been extended, youth and womens teams incorporated - - the chances of individual club failure are increased.
A 2nd team in Melb will need a vastly different marketing model to MVFC. But, that’s further down the track. The main thing is that a 12 team competition will probably need an top 5 or top 6 - - - given that the HAL has been marketed in large parts at non-soccer people - the entertainment component may wain as teams fall out of contention sooner (thus an argument for top 6 of 12)

The regional teams - - the overlapping foot-print with the NRL is a dangerous path - - as much as there is a level of ‘complentary’ benefit via venues - - there is the local competition for members, sponsors and at the end of the day, especially if the soccer season expands further - there will be a tug of war for hearts. [especially hearts of juniors - - soccer is a long, long way from Rugby - - - again, AFL for example sits in the mid ground and can benefit more from juniors who play a bit of either code, and can 'convert' more readily at latter ages.]

It’s a bit of a phoney war for now.

The talent pool………may thin out, or may retain more talented players locally. Although, the lure to head OS will always be strong. One can only assume a short term drop in standard - - which may further alienate the soccer purists who don’t want to watch a technically sub-standard competition.

Pippinu said | August 29th 2008 @ 12:38pm | Report comment

Speaking of population growth, Melbourne is tipped to catch Sydney on present trends in the next 15 years or so.

If NQ is going to hold up the rest of the comp for years to come - I”m fine with that - someone has to come bottom, it may as well be them.

jimbo said | August 29th 2008 @ 12:56pm | Report comment

The talent pool or player drain hasn’t been a problem so far and in fact the standard and quality keep improving, not just the A-League.

With a big focus on coaching and improving technical skills of local juniors the improvements are starting to come through. The local state and premier leagues standards are also improving and they are starting to supply more A-League players.

This is giving plenty of opportunities for bright young players especially with the national youth league now underway as a feeder for the A-League clubs and overseas scouts.

We’ve seen another strong growth in junior girl and boy football player registrations this year and talking about topping the 2 million mark for registered football players, referees, linesmen and club officials and administrators Australia wide in the near future.

Couple this with about 2-3 million football spectators and TV viewers - nearly 1 in 4 Australians are now involved with or watch football at some level.

Michael C said | August 29th 2008 @ 1:04pm | Report comment

Oh, Pippinu - - you just reminded me, (this sort of does and doesn’t fit here - i.e. the thread, but, since Pippinu mentioned immigration I’d just like to mention this to him whilst we’re on the topic)

An interest thing missed by some people in the past - -
some people have pointed to the massive Asian immigration and that that all points to soccer being in the box seat -

the fact is that it’s actually India that presently represents the major immigration source from Asia (as well as students).

I know some Indian observors are actually predicting big things for Aust Footy, such that the current ‘team’ representing India in Melbourne may have no real idea just how ‘famous’ they may become as the ‘first’ national team.

Anyway - - - it’s that whole thing about assumptions of capturing immigrants interest full stop - - -as, all those Indian folk may be just as happy to stick with 20/20 and ODI cricket…….

Dave said | August 29th 2008 @ 1:13pm | Report comment

MC

If they coma from Bengal/Kolkata then football can only be the winner

Interesting that FIFA and to an extent some EPL clubs now have India on their radar.

Redb said | August 29th 2008 @ 1:30pm | Report comment

Jimbo,

How does the salary cap fit with maintaining the level of quality amongst the soon to be 10 team teams, 12 teams in a couple of years?

Redb

Kazama said | August 29th 2008 @ 2:20pm | Report comment

I’m going to have to agree with Mick of Newie - you aren’t going to find 40 superstars running around in the state leagues for these two new teams. Consider also that they’ll be competing with the 8 exisitng clubs for Australian talent at season’s end and you’re looking at having to find 50-odd players out of nowhere. At least with the youth league now in place we can find the up and coming talent quicker, but as Mick suggests the kids probably won’t get much of a look in at two clubs trying to find their feet in the league. It’s a big concern for me, particularly for Nth Qld - you’d think the millions the Gold Coast owner has would be used to buy a big name marquee player that will get the people in, and probably attract a few existing A-League players up there as well. Then the conundrum would shift to the teams these players have come from, who would have to look to the state leagues and plug the holes with guys like Fabien Barbiero and Robert Younis - two examples of state league stars struggling to make a good impression at A-League level. I have this fear that these new teams, and the two that follow the year after, will risk upsetting the whole thing. I really, really hope I’m wrong.

This is why I and many others have been banging on about expanding into Asia instead of Australia for a while. The advantage is that you won’t stretch the talent pool at all because the teams would have their own talent pool to themselves. Look at the Phoenix’s exploitation of the NZ talent pool for example of how this model would be successful (in terms of support and viability anyway - I’m backing that the on-field results for them won’t be too far away). Unfortunately uncle binny has shot this idea into pieces, so we’ll have to wait until he ends his term as AFC President before the idea could be considered again.

Mick of Newie said | August 29th 2008 @ 2:34pm | Report comment

Kazama
these clubs will pay big $ to what I would call second tier players at existing clubs who are coming off contract. Much like Andrew Durante and Leo Bertos going to Wellington. What Wellington and these clubs might find out is that good players in good teams can be exposed when they are expected to be a dominant player at their new team.

I think Gold Coast will be different. I think they will go hard for big names (What odds both Adam and Joel Griffiths) which will be great for their recruitment. They also have access to the very large SE Qld junior nursery even if they have to share it with the Roar.

Dave said | August 29th 2008 @ 2:53pm | Report comment

Kazama Mick of Newie

I share your concerns but am not as pessimistic. I have watched plenty of local Premier league football in Victoria and have knowledge of the talent pathways that have been put in place. In the next few years many more of the record numbers of youngsters playing the game will now see it as a viable career pathway and remain with the sport. All the new opportunities available make for exciting times. If we didn’t have the huge youth numbers playing then l would be worried. The coaching at youth levels is a lot better now, each state has its own institutes developing youngsters, the state leagues really only need to contribute 30-40 players (all states combined) in the next couple of years. There will be increasing numbers of overseas Aussies returning eg Viduka (to Victory of course), Kewell, Neil, Emerton, Bresciano and the lesser known boys. Asia is just starting to open up as a recruiting ground.
Concern yes but optimistic very much so.
Melbourne needs a second team to keep the code in the news and have a game here each week. Same in Sydenee. As long as the hard yards have been put in and the financial considerations met bring the clubs in. The players will be found and the quality not diminished.

dasilva said | August 29th 2008 @ 3:34pm | Report comment

THere’s one other thing as well. THere are 100’s of players who are playing in english 3rd, 4th, 5th division and other lowere leagues in the world.

http://au.fourfourtwo.com/news/83553,whos-on-the-radar-for-a-return.aspx

We don’t know the qualities of those players and getting those people back may uncover hidden gems and be good players in the new club. For Gold Coast and NQ to succeed then these players are essential.

Kazama said | August 29th 2008 @ 3:52pm | Report comment

dasilva

That’s the big hope, isn’t it, that some of these guys from overseas will want to come home and play and be good for the league. But how many will come home, and of them how many will be successes?

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Dave

Based on what you’ve put forward there perhaps we can be optimistic about the league in 5 years time - but the worry is one year’s time. HK, Emmo, Bresc etc might be looking to play here in 2013, but 2009 is the year two new teams come in. As for the kids, I stand by my comment and Mick’s comment that kids won’t get a run in the first team of Nth Qld or Gold Coast, so while we may have a fantastic youth league next season, the seniors are the worry. I think you might find ‘only’ 30-40 players is actually quite a large number - I wonder how many players currently in the A-League have come straight from the state leagues? And of those, how many are in the first-choice eleven at their clubs? Then if we have two more teams join in 2010-11, you are looking at about a minimum of 60 and a maximum of 100 players being pulled out of the state leagues in the space of two years. At least we’ve got the youth league now, but aside from Cranky Franky not many teams have been willing to play more than a couple of youngsters in their starting XIs. In fact there’s quite a bit of a cringe about playing kids in this league eg: look at last season when Kosmina pulled Renaud out of retirement and played him instead of Nik Tsattalios. So, my question is how many of these kids are going to be so damn good that even Ernie Merrick will have no choice but to play them? And then, if they’re that good, what’s to stop them from buggering off to Europe after half a season?

Sorry if I’m being OTT pessimistic but I really do care about this league and I’m afraid of us overplaying our hand and stuffing the whole thing up. It was only four years ago I watched the Socceroos (including the likes of John Aloisi, Emmo and Timmy) play three World Cup Qualifiers in front of about 2,000 - 4,000 people each night at Hindmarsh Stadium. I don’t want to experience something like that again.

———————————————————————————

Mick

So are you calling Perth Glory a good team then? I agree with your point though, and I think you even see that sort of thing happen in the EPL. As for the Gold Coast, they will be like every other team in that they won’t be able to have whoever they want thanks to the salary cap. I’m sure they’ll be making a play for the likes of Adam and Joel, and every other remotely good player in the league, but it’ll stuff them up if they have four or five guys taking up 1/2 the cap, leaving the rest of the squad to be made up of journeymen and players from the state leagues. And I’ve made the point before - a longer season will require deeper squads.

Dave said | August 29th 2008 @ 4:41pm | Report comment

Kazama

Those consortiums coming in are being asked to put up a fair amount of money and l dont believe they will be willing to do so if they didn’t think a return would be forthcoming. As well as GC and NQ there are bids from Melb (2), Sydenee, Canberra, Wollongong that l know of. It is amazing to think that only 5 years ago no one would touch football with the preverbial bar of soap No doubt there will be some levelling off of standards as 4 teams come in within 2 years but the process must be continued to maintain momentum and ensure a worthwhile product is on show when the next TV rights come up for discussion.
l agree with dasilva in the belief that more overseas players will start to return earlier than later. You only need a couple such as Viduka (next year?) and Kewell (2 years) and watch this space…others will follow not just journeymen but some decent talent.

Pippinu said | August 29th 2008 @ 4:44pm | Report comment

If NQ can’t find the players, that’s a good thing isn’t it? I enjoy the odd 4-0 belting.

Kazama said | August 29th 2008 @ 5:02pm | Report comment

Dave

I seriously doubt Kewell would be in the A-League in the next two years. I think five is a better guess. Viduka next season? Not outside the realm of possibility, but IMO he’d have to have a shocker in the EPL and then Gold Coast would have to throw millions at him for the V-Bomber to come home in 2009.

The problem is that as long as there’s interest from clubs in big European leagues guys like Kewell, Viduka, Emmo etc will more than likely stay abroad. The money is probably going to be much better, and the class of football is better than what we can offer them here. The mentality that these guys seemingly have is that the A-League is the final stage of their career, and until they feel that it’s all over for them in Europe, they probably won’t come home. That, to me, is a big problem. That mentality must change if the A-League is to get to the level we all want it to. Right now I think a lot of players see the A-League as a retirement home / shop window for Europe, and that annoys me a bit, but I find it hard to argue otherwise.

dasilva said | August 29th 2008 @ 5:31pm | Report comment

Even the French and Dutch league is a shop window to the big 4. The problem is not whether A-league is a shop window to europe but whether it is a good shop window to europe. In all honestly none of the Australian players have been picked up by big clubs. Most of them move from A-league to lower divisions in europe. Burns and Djite were the biggest move to Greece and Turkey but they are not the greatest league in the world. If you see Australian players getting poach to the big 4 and then regularly play their then you have a lot of players coming back from lower division in europe to play in the a-league. Instead you have players bypassing the A-league and making the trip straight to europe to try their luck in lower leagues believing it is better to progress then the A-league. The success of Tim Cahill , Kewell, Spiranovich who never played in the A-leagues actually damage the credibility of this league. We don’t have a Brett Emerton or a Viduka who dominated the NSL for couple of seasons before making it big in Europe.

wollongong said | August 29th 2008 @ 6:36pm | Report comment

Typical. No Wollongong team. The best producer of talent in the country. 2 times NSL champions. Get stuffed soccer. Let’s hope the Wollongong junoirs play AFL.

Midfielder said | August 29th 2008 @ 9:52pm | Report comment

wollongong

Your time will come within three year either Hal 6 or Hal 8, but you will be there.

Football has many bridges to cross and cannot make everybody happy at the same time.

Dave said | August 30th 2008 @ 9:29am | Report comment

Kazma

The only way to change perceptions of the ALeague as a lst stop is to grow the game and expand the league. Greater TV money, sponsorships will come when the clubs better represent all regions of Oz. These perceptions will take a decade or more to change. In the meantime bring in the Lopez, Hernandez, Fabiano types as at the moment MV are on fire (sorry had to boast about that great performance last night ). 5-0 and the quality was outstanding.

Dave said | August 30th 2008 @ 9:33am | Report comment

wollongong

No AFL or Union team either. So get stuffed AFL and Union also. Looks like your stuck with RL.

jimbo said | August 30th 2008 @ 3:12pm | Report comment

Dave,
Victory were very good last night and shades of their all conquering season 2 clean sweep and the big GF win against Adelaide. Why couldn’t Thompson play like that in the Olympics and Victory play like that in the ACL?
Jets were disappointing and their 2 imports had bad games so there is a lot of improvement in them to come. The other disappointment was the smaller crowd than last season.

Sydney, Adelaide United and Roar also have better squads so could be another big year for them and hopefully Victory don’t dominate again.

Redb,
I think the salary cap has been fairly successful for the A-League and its standard and is set at about the right level.
Exceptional players who can get more will go overseas and the clubs can’t afford much more given the current A-League finances. Young players coming through are happy with what they get because its a lot more than they are used to.
The league and its revenues would have to grow quite considerably before a salary cap was not necessary.

Dave said | August 30th 2008 @ 4:07pm | Report comment

Jimbo

MV played with an attacking formation once Archie was on allowing him to receive support unlike the Olyroos who played very defensively. Victory appear to have recruited very well and would do much better now in the ACL.
The crowd not too bad. It was the first game i’ve missed for 4 seasons due to my son playing at the same time. There is also some dispute with the Blue and White Brigade resulting in an apparent boycott of their members. 22,500 was better than Nth Melb v PA at MCG today and probably Geelong vs WC. There have been many unhappy supporters due to the style the team played last season ands disputes with TD management. Crowds will get even bigger as the season progresses. Isnt it great to say 22,500 at a domestic football match is disappointing

Redb said | August 31st 2008 @ 7:42am | Report comment

Dave,

I watched a bit of the MV v Newcastle game and saw the first goal before switching over to the AFL and was amazed the next day to read of a 5 nil drubbing. The crowd looked OK, about par for the course 22-26K is the likely range the Victory have settled into. Notwithstanding the next game v Sydney Fc where it should go well over 30K.

But I’m going to tackle on you on the AFL crowd comparison as a context. Surprised?

Why do you need to continually justify/rationalise MV’s crowds by finding the lowest AFL crowd as if to say see not so bad. North game got 22K, Geelong 21K at the small skilled stadium , the whole population of Geelong is about 150,000, not bad eh, pretty good ratio.

Cartlon v Hawthorn at Telstra Dome drew 49,000 last night, Melb V Rich will get low 30s today and Ess v Stkilda may nudge 40K.

If you want to compare, what was the biggest crowd of the next futbol game in Melbourne this weekend?

Despite only one major drawing crowd (Carl v Haw), Round 22 were final 8 is established, real action starts next week, the AFL will draw around 150,000, futbol 22,500. How is that for context!

If you want context rate Victory against the Melb Storm.

Redb

Dave said | August 31st 2008 @ 10:13am | Report comment

Redb
In this context l was trying to point out that 22,500 is not too bad and that it shows how far MV and football has come in a short 4 years to say 22,500 in below par.
You are right about AFL crowds in general but there are specific clubs that dont do well and their figures are boosted by opposition supporters in all the Melb games. MV do very well considering there are no opposition supporters to boost the figures. Most of the AFL teams this year will have a lower ave crowd than last season and the league itself will marginally be higher because of the return to competitiveness of Carl, Rich, Ess.
Just putting the MV crowds into perspective and the only benchmark is AFL. MV do better than all the RL teams except Broncos.
We are talking a 4 year old club vs 100 plus year old clubs. A truer test will come when Melb has a 2nd HAL team.

Adam Pearce said | August 31st 2008 @ 8:58pm | Report comment

“BTW l like the angle of NQ becoming the mongrel team of HAL aka Leeds Utd of the 70s, Wimbledon of the 80s maybe a great marketing tool”

A good idea i think it will evolve that way with the parocialism and the rivalry against the “southern” clubs.

Football Clubs NEED players they will find them no doubt.Every year around the world and in Australia there are thousands of players that go off-contract get sacked or are looking for a new club.North Queensland will never be glamourous or attract the creme de la creme of the players but players who arent famous or get a second chance often rise up to the challenge and prove themselves as worthy players.Gold Coast will attract big name players but i hope they dont go down the SFC route of doing things because if they dont prove themselves as a genuinely local team and parocial about it they could be on the club scrap heap.

Unlike the AFL where i can see genuine talent pool problems i fail to see that here because football is an international game of which if the funds are there the whole world can be your talent pool.

Redb said | September 1st 2008 @ 8:13am | Report comment

Dave,

AFL crowds by club go up and down, like you said some clubs have lower ave crowds, others like Carl, Rich,etc have done better. Collingwood are averaging an astonishing 60,000!

The AFL has again broken its attendance record despite only 1 of the big 4 in the finals, both WA teams out of the mix, SA teams being down for most of the season and weaker Sydney crowds (applies to most codes in that market). The Sydney FC crowd of 11K is very low.

Again, I think your barking up the wrong tree comparing to AFL. Melb Victory are the ONLY club in Melbourne it may be 4 years old, but futbol in some domestic/national form has been played here for 30 years. Victory had Friday night all to themselves meaning that any AFL fans (which make up half of Victory’s members) were free to go to the game. But even if Collingwood were playing Essendon in front of 80,000 at the G, Victory could still get 22-26K to its game on the same night, becuase there are 8 other AFL clubs fans who could attend and of course the core Victory futbol supporters.

As I’ve said many times there is room for Victory on the landscape and it makes the sporting calendar more interesting but rather than attempting to poke holes in other codes crowds look at building those crowds to a sustainable level I don’t see any trends here for comparison, if some AFL club crowds are down it is not due to the Melb Victory, it is irrelevant.

You and I both know if Victory builds momentum they could easily get a 40,000+ crowd again the next time they play Sydney, but if they have a season like 07-08, they’ll be back to 25-30K real quick.

Redb

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 9:22am | Report comment

Interesting interview on SBS TWG on Sunday Miron Bleiberg (sp) keeping his cards close to his chest about the coaching staff .. It seems that Paul Okon has the inside running and will be the assistant to Miron .. This will be a wonderful appointment if it is to be so.. Paul an ex Footballroo and captain has spent some time this year in Europe to acquire the extra coaching skills from his old club at Lazio in the Serie A; and all looks rosy for the inaugural season of the Gold Coast United first season playing out of the new state-of-the- art rectangle Robina Stadium..

Excitement is mounting with the Gold Coast residents … This club has enormous ambitions and has planed a preseason tour across Oceania and Asia on one of the privately owned Clive Palmer’s (Chairman owner) jets .. Talking about the biggest Football club in Australia; never mind wondering who is the 7th largest football club in Melbourne : I think this sort of big picture thinking will have most pundits in Australia scratching their heads…

~~~~~~~
KB

Redb said | September 1st 2008 @ 9:59am | Report comment

KB,

Interesting times for Gold Coast with sporting clubs clamouring for the sand and surf dollars. An early tip re billionaires and futbol clubs - they have 3 years to make it work. Unless said billionaire can cheat on the salary cap, the player talent will be pedestrian to say the least in Asian never mind world terms.

3 years KB , 3 years.

Redb

Midfielder said | September 1st 2008 @ 10:04am | Report comment

KB

We have a quality problem in the short term ………. Okon should be an excellent coach he was such a talent as a player. I hope he can make the swap ………. what is inbteresting is that the youth league coachjs are about developing skill and touch ………. as is the small sided game.

The guy from GCU Palmer said he was sure GCU would be allowed an extra couple of imports and they will be Asian ……. mainly Chinese from waht he said but national team players.

BB is off to Europe to get some of the 150 players in the lower leagues to come back as well, big ask grow four teams plus youth league in two years and then add another two teams by Hal 8 or 9.

IMO comes back to coaches ……… but Glory boys & Nix are still to find that something to make them competative.

Michael C said | September 1st 2008 @ 11:08am | Report comment

Redb and Dave -

crowd watching is a perilous thing at the best of times - - we know the potential impact of weather for example.

So - seasonal trends can be misleading……we can see for example that the AFL - once established at 176 H&A matches (16 team comp), hit 5 million agg atten for the first time in ‘95, 6 mill in ‘98 but seemed to have levelled out in the 5.7 to 5.9 mill range - - until 2005, the trending over the last 4 years (interestingly with the increased ‘challenge’ of FIFA WC, Socceroos qualifying, HAL launched, MVFC the most supported and best attended club and Melb Storm being a dominant team in the NRL and AFL being unfairly hit from pillar to post in the media via crap reporting of drugs in sport) - - over the last 4 years the agg attendance for H&A season has gone : 6.28mill, 6.20mill, 6.47mill and this year 6.51mill. (and, as seen, the variation in interstate vs Vic clubs in the top echelon has - on balance - not had a great impact).
btw - this includes ‘promotional’ matches held in (relatively) very low attending venues such as Darwin, Canberra, Gold Coast (esp for North Melb this year!!!), even Launceston - - all drag the average down that would therefore be higher if the AFL were purely about maximum crowds in the present.

So - that’s that in context. (apologies for the length - but, I just want to establish the context of all this)

The HAL - - therefore - - as AFL fans, we ARE NOT looking at this from a ’smell the fear’ perspective. At least in the short term. I hope I have that clear.

Now — we’ve had all the pie in the sky stuff from some soccer fans who are quite adament that because A has happened, that B and C MUST follow in that order (well, anyone who knows anything about pattern recognition knows that it’s too early to take it to the bank, just yet). And, yet, there’s been all this talk of increasing interest and crowds etc.

I’ve covered a bit of this before -
We know that from V1 to V2 that crowd increases we’re mainly due to MVFC moving from Olympic Park to Telstra Dome - - which accounted for an aggregate crowd increase of around 150,000 - - of a total competition crowd increase of 160,000.

We know that from V2 to V3 that crowd agg crowd increase of about 140,000 was largely due to Wellington, accounting for about 80,000, and most of the rest via CCM and NJs and a little to the Roar plus Adelaide oval one off match.

So - - V3 to V4 - - we’re waiting to see how the snowball is rolling, whether it continues to gather snow or not.

Thus far, after 3 rounds, V4 is basically tracking level pegging to both V1 and V2 (and down 20K on V3). Doesn’t mean much yet. We know V2 got a big boost along as MVFC started drawing a few bigger crowds, and those ‘lofty’ heights weren’t hit in V3. So, a long to go yet.

All that we did see was that the aggregate after 2 rounds was well below any of the previous years - - and, the Round 3 agg crowd (54K) was actually the best round 3 - very comfortably.

Anyway - too early to say anything - - the biggest surprise so far was that in previous seasons one of the Round 1 or 2 crowds would proove the season maximum as per follows V1 - total season, V2 - until round 16 (MVFC 50K home crowd) and V3 until round 10.
And scratching the surface just a tad on that, V1, okay, first round was best for the year, 25K at SFS - that was a bit of novelty value, 20K at Suncorp - - it all settled down after that.
In V2 MVFC hosted SFC in Round 2, for just under 40K, and lowest TD crowd of the year was just under 23K. In V3, MVFC hosted Perth Glory in Round 3 for 31.5K, and only hit the low 20K’s round 14 on when the season was ‘lost’.
So - - there can be ’sugar’ coating of the “isn’t it nice that 22.5K is a disappointing crowd for a domestic soccer match”. But - it IS a disappointing season opener for MVFC who have shown only good signs, good form etc thru the pre-season and first 2 matches - there should be great optimism in the MVFC camp.
What it MAY show, knowing the sluggish sign up this year for MVFC - - it might just illustrate that as purse strings tighten, and as MVFC seem to have marketed well to AFL fans - - that, the MVFC membership is first to be jettisoned.
If that prooves correct, then MVFC and whatever 2nd Melb team will need to really start accessing those ‘non footy’ soccer fans for whom their MVFC membership will be their yearly lifeblood so to speak.

Or - we may get proven wrong. Or it may just be that there’s too much Melbourne based interest at the end of the AFL season this year in particular and that MVFC will rebound quickly over the next month as each week of the AFL finals 2 teams fall away.

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 11:39am | Report comment

Redb,
on the Gold Coast at grassroots the Futbol kids have the highest numbers of all codes and still increasing so don’t put too much value with the 3 years grace; we don’t; Rugby L and Futbol rule on the Gold Coast..

The Bengal Lancers failed because they didn’t have the numbers.. and as Roy masters explained with the free passes dropping from the sky out of a WWII B52 bomber didn’t have much impact..

btw just read that MVFC 22.5K had the best crowd over Nth Melb 22K and Geelong 21K the times are a changin’ Lards

~~~~~~~
KB

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 11:48am | Report comment

Midfielder,
I didn’t mention Alaster Edwards exFootballroo currently in Holland as an assistant coach working with a top Dutch manager at one of the big clubs over there .. Good to see that a lot of young coaches are going abroad to acquire the necessary coaching skill to make a living in Australia as a manager of a HAL club..

~~~~~~~
KB

Redb said | September 1st 2008 @ 11:52am | Report comment

KB,

Did you also read. Total crowds in Melbourne this weekend AFL - 175,000 futbol - 22,500.

Futbol’s big junior numbers dont seem to translate to fan support just read Sydney FC crowd 11K on the weekend. Gold Coast big junior numbers wont necessarily translate into fan support.

I actually think GC United will do well initially, but success on the park is the main factor here in the medium term.

This is the future for regions with ‘franchise’ teams.

eg: Titans winning, GC17 losing, GCU losing - Titans get the swing crowd (bandwagon) above core and so it will go in other variations.

AFL knows it is number 3 on the GC for the time being. We are talkiing about a new and growing market, not THE market that counts.

Redb

jimbo said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:04pm | Report comment

Is attendances at a game the one and only measure of success?

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:06pm | Report comment

Redb,
remember we are talking about one Futbol club in Melbourne.. GCU losing Please explain haven’t even played a game yet…

~~~~~~~
KB

Redb said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:24pm | Report comment

KB,

I’ll write slower this time

Just a possible example of the future re fan support on the Gold Coast.

Titans
GC17 (AFL)
GCU

All 3 will be relatively new franchise teams with some core support for each code, but swing support will be the order of the day.

Jimbo,

All games/codes are enhanced by big crowds both at the game and on TV. People who attend the game are far more rusted on than TV fans, they have actually bothered to pay over their hard earned and spend 3-4 hours of their time. So I think they are big success factor.

One example and I apologise that is an AFL one:

Carlton v Hawthorn game at TD, crowd 49,000, Buddy Franklin hoping to get 100, the atmosphere was electric. The play of the ball is met with a roar from fans as either side touchs the ball, it came through on the TV. The game had a huge sporting pulse.

Contrast this with Sydney v Brisbane game 24,000, more sedate fans, the game lacked intensity, came through fairly flat on TV for a neutral observer.

Big crowds propel a game to new heights and i think it actually lifts the performance of the players. Imagine running out onto the MCG in front of 90,000 screaming fans, that would be a huge rush. It’s great just being in the crowd on those occasions.

Redb

Michael C said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:25pm | Report comment

KB-

yep, times are changin’, as I mentioned, MVFC first TD game in V2 was almost 40,000,

their first TD game last season as 31,500.

This time around, with really the perfect lead in - - having participated in the much heralded (by the ‘Asia our saviour’ brigade of the Soccer jihadist group) ACL campaign, and a successful pre-season campaign, and on the promotional extravaganza as KB loves to illustrate of Soccer at the Olympics - - -

yep, on the basis of that perfectly scripted lead in………………and, ……………..22,500 for the MVFC season opener at Telstra Dome.

It doesn’t make much sense - - not if MVFC have fair dinkum soccer head support.

But - -we know they don’t, we know that AFL supporters/members make up a large proportion, so, soccer folk had better be a little more respectful to their AFL bretheren who supply a good portion of their fan base.

oh yeah, and in August 2006, the last time North hosted Port Power in Melbourne (at Telstra Dome), we drew the massive crowd of 14,815……………..so, 22, 144 doesn’t seem too bad (just a shame to be at the MCG, that’s why we need to be playing these games still somewhere like Princes Park.

(prior to 2006, 2004, rnd 8 at TD, 16, 910 and Rnd 16 2002, at Princes Park, 9398 - - and around that we’ve hosted Port twice in Canberra for about 10,000 each time, and once at the SCG for not much over 7000 - - - so, yep, it might appear that the times are a changin’, because North Melb hosting Port Power in Melbourne is trending upwards based on the weekend gone, and MVFC kicking off their season at TD is trending downwards……………………what was your point again??)

btw - KB - fyi :

a little fact on Geelong at Kardinia Park.
The theoretical maximum is around 27,000.
The Geelong membership this season is 36,850.

There is a requirement to allocate a couple of thousand tickets each game to opposition clubs.

You’ll note that this season :
the lowest crowds at Kardinia Park were all for interstate teams with lower Victorian following:
Rnd 22 vs WCE 21752
Rnd 15 v Frem 21286
Rnd 12 v Port 21642

the other KP matches ranged from 23388 (v Bris, a bigger Vic following) to 24801 vs Western Bulldogs.

Therefore, it can be reasonably concluded - that those seats are not empty because they can’t be filled……….it’s a function of the smaller size of the venue and stipulations around ticket allocation.
That will be rectified in years to come (partially) as the venue will be increase to above 30,000 capacity by the end of 2010…………..silly really though, that the State Govt pumps $300 million into a rectangular venue that’s not needed, and Geelong has far less capacity than is required (i.e. it’d be nice as an opposing supporter to be able to contemplate attending a game down there).

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:39pm | Report comment

Redb,
you are being incoherent again; you have had problems with that before .. laddie type slower and reread what you type before sending..

~~~~~
KB

Michael C said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:40pm | Report comment

Jimbo -

attendance is a fair indicator, is it not?

Voting with you remote control is a far less ‘buy in’ to the event than actual attendance combined with the other really good KPI of club seasons ticket (memberships) holders.

We also know that TV ratings are a complex basket.

We know that Foxtel is strongest in the Sydney market (i.e., biggest market and greatest penetration) - we know that individual games of NRL are far more likely to have a consistant coverage in the NRL markets (NSW and QLD).

We know that quite often, AFL matches are shown variously around the country on 20 min delay, 3 hour delaly, live, or not at all on FTA and various on Pay as well. So - we’ve pretty well established that tv ratings are a complex beast that require ‘corrections’ to draw anything conclusive from.
And, of course, we know that the HAL as zero FTA coverage, so, for Pay ratings, it doesn’t even compete with itself on FTA so to speak, let alone that most matches in the HAL don’t even have a competing HAL match within that time slot either.

So, for TV, we can hardly say ‘all things are equal’, they most certainly are not. And it’s beyond most of our capabilities to model it effectively (and probably beyond some peoples comprehension anyway!)

Yep, attendance is a pretty good KPI. What else would you suggest is better?

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:55pm | Report comment

MC,
yes Skilled Park; 27k, so what has happened to the 6K odd that did not turn up, and the overstated 36k members? Haven’t they worked it out yet, that they can’t all fit in, if it were true.. Yes Melb Vic have a whole season a head and when you think of their first season.. well lards the times are indeed changing..

~~~~~
KB

Dave said | September 1st 2008 @ 12:58pm | Report comment

MC Redb

Must say it was MC who initially introduced crowds on this post so l was just repsonding. We all know that AFL crowds are very good but that is not universal and some clubs struggle but this is masked in the overall attendances (MC can you put up a club by club ave and comparison to 2007 on AFL or point to the direction l can find these figures?). I stiil contend some of the early season lower crowds in HAL are due to poor media coverage (eg Ch 10 news on Friday night didn’t have a mention of MV game but led the sport with news of an AFL game the next day?).
HAL crowds wil pick up as the season progresses and MV should get 30,000 plus for next home game.
Redb: Colls ave is impressive although 10-20,000 of that ave is opposition support (sometimes more)eg Ess would have 30,000 of their supporters when the 2 teams play.
MC: Why do you say the new rectangular stadium is not needed? According to all the football people l know it is desperately needed. It will give MV and the Rugbies a home, it will add atmosphere to the games and stop some of the disputes fan groups have with TD. Football (and Rugby) should be played in a rectangular stadium not an AFL stadium.

Towser said | September 1st 2008 @ 1:07pm | Report comment

As one who doesn’t bother nor care what other sports are doing(Personally I believe you have to be born here to truly understand it) because I agree essentially with Redb that in reality each sport stands on its own merit in relation to its background.
The background for Association football is continuous comparison to overseas leagues. Ie what is being served up. You cant feed me tripe when i’ve just ate caviar(when i first ate it not long after i emerged from deepest bread un drippin land I thought it was blackcurrant jam they were serving-true story).
The A-League is at that junction after 3 years of operation,as were the MLS & J-League.
The Roar served me tripe on Sunday and the rest of the crowd also copped a gutful.
Maybe the crowds are reflecting where the A-League really is after the novelty gives way to reality as it did in Japan & the USA.
Last week the excuse for the Roar crowd was the Olympics, 2 major train lines out of service & nobody had any sporting dollar left after the Broncos on Friday & the Lions on Saturday.
This week none of these factors existed & the crowd was less.

Redb said | September 1st 2008 @ 1:10pm | Report comment

Dave,

Not sure you can question Collingwood’s average, its impressive, period.

No problem with rectangular stadium, I reckon it will be a good and much needed addition to our sporting infrastructure. Still remember watching a rugby union test between Australia and Italy at Olympic Park back in the days of Campese! - pretty ordinary with the running track,etc.

If Melbourne is to get a Super 14 team we need a good venue.

Redb

Michael C said | September 1st 2008 @ 1:19pm | Report comment

Dave -

actually - it was you who brought up crowds (prior to that I’d made 2 posts, one purely on topic, and the other to Pippinu re. India as a clearly flagged ‘incidental’ comment).

You said “There is also some dispute with the Blue and White Brigade resulting in an apparent boycott of their members. 22,500 was better than Nth Melb v PA at MCG today and probably Geelong vs WC. There have been many unhappy supporters due to the style the team played last season ands disputes with TD management. Crowds will get even bigger as the season progresses. Isnt it great to say 22,500 at a domestic football match is disappointing ”

remember??

anyway - Dave - I will do as you ask (although, last time I did this I had my post ‘with-held’)

KB -

as I said, there’s a portion required to be available for opposing fans - - there’s only so many from WCE, Port or Fremantle to make the trek down to Geelong, and - consistantly, those seats go under utilised.

We also know, that when memberships with reserved seats are bought for a season - that invariably on any given week that 10-20% of those people are unable to attend. More at various times - especially for clubs playing Friday or Saturday nights (crap for very yound and very old) - - - Geelong of course don’t have the night issue when playing at Kardinia Park.

IN general, the public available seating will be all taken and Geelong will pocket $600,000 clear profit………..the envy of many.

Koala Bear said | September 1st 2008 @ 1:27pm | Report comment

Finally someone from Grooky land that can see the benefit of a Rectangle stadium.. Rugby; League; Futbol, add international matches to the mix; you have a better reason to build the venue than to waste the monies on Skilled stadium (Geelong) when they can’t fill it to its capacity (27k) for only six months of the year ..

~~~~~~~
KB

Michael C said | September 1st 2008 @ 1:35pm | Report comment

Dave - as you asked for : for HOME matches {Coll and Ess can vary a degree with who hosts ANZAC day match}
Teams that are UP
Collingwood 54,898 (2007) to 59,213(2008)
Carlton 41,583 to 48,589
Richmond 38,255 to 43,545
Hawthorn 33,186 to 39,975
Melb 29,536 to 30,777 (go figure??)
WBG 28,777 to 30,275

Teams that are DOWN
Essendon 52,293 to 46,335
Adelaide 41,991 to 40,677
WCE 40,791 to 37,653
St.Kilda 37,921 to 37,033 (effectively stable)
Freo 37,473 to 35,876
Sydeny 35,632 to 32,827
Geelong 31,546 to 29,509 (can be a function of the number of Kardinia Park games)
Brisbane 28,847 to 28,127 (relatively stable)
North Melb 28,077 to 27,667 (includes those pesky crap games up at the Gold Coast - expect an increase next year)
Port Power 27,870 to 23,841

So - it’s clear that the increase is via Coll, Carl, Rich and Hawthorn, - - - and the impact of a bad year for Essendon shows how much those years when the Melb teams were down had to be counterbalanced by the interstate teams being ‘up’.

This year, a couple of clubs effectively painted themselves out of it rather early, such as Essendon (despite a youth driven resurgance), Port, Freo, WCE……

Obviously, the expanded AFL in years to come will suffer mostly from teams being out of contention earlier&

By Evan Schwarten
August 29th 2008 @ 1:32am

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