Preview of AFL finals week one

Preview of AFL finals matches, week one (all times local).

Second Qualifying Final
Teams: HAWTHORN V WESTERN BULLDOGS
Venue: MCG
Date: Friday, September 5
Time: 7.50pm
Head.to.head: Hawthorn 72 Western Bulldogs 73 Drawn 2
Finals record: Hawthorn played 60 won 37 lost 23 drawn 0 Western Bulldogs played 35 won 11 lost 24 drawn 0
Last.time: Western Bulldogs 15.16 (106) bt Hawthorn 12.2 (74) R10 2008, Aurora Stadium
Betting: TABSportsbet Hawthorn $1.33 Western Bulldogs $3.15 Centrebet Hawthorn $1.36 Western Bulldogs $3.20
Summary: One thing these two sides have had plenty of is preparation to play each other – they’ve known this clash was set in stone for more than a month. The good news for Hawthorn is they have won four of their past five matches while the Bulldogs have won just two in that stretch. The Hawks go into the game on the back of two straight wins while the Dogs are smarting after a last start loss to Adelaide, who finished two spots below them in the final eight. For the Bulldogs the encouragement will come from their last game against Hawthorn, where they entered the Hawks’ Tasmanian home base and walked away with a substantial and surprise 32-point win. It was a midfield win for the Dogs that day and but for Buddy Franklin and Jarryd Roughead the scoreline would have made the Hawks look very low-rent. That will be the story on Friday night as the Bulldogs match their small running goal-kickers against Hawthorn’s twin peaks, Franklin and Roughead. With the fast, move-forward-at-all-costs style of both sides the match should be eye-catching, but the Dogs have the task of shutting down the best spearhead combo in the league. For the Hawks, they have to resurrect their midfield dominance to match the scattered Dog running players
Key: How the Bulldogs cope with Franklin and Roughead will go a long way towards deciding the result. If Brian Lake and Dale Morris are not up to the task there could be an ugly scoreline.
Tip: Hawthorn by 20 points

First Elimination Final
Teams: ADELAIDE V COLLINGWOOD
Venue: AAMI Stadium
Date: Saturday, September 6
Time: 2pm
Head.to.head: Adelaide 10 Collingwood 18 Drawn 0
Finals record: Adelaide played 22 won 12 lost 10 drawn 0 Collingwood played 158 won 67 lost 87 drawn 4
Last.time: Collingwood 15.16 (106) bt Adelaide 11.8 (74) R15 2008, MCG
Betting: TABSportsbet Adelaide $1.60 Collingwood $2.25 Centrebet Adelaide $1.65 Collingwood $2.27
Summary: Adelaide have been confident and solid in the weeks leading up to the finals while Collingwood looked tired last week after winning their previous three matches. The loss of Alan Didak and Heath Shaw and the ongoing injury concerns of Anthony Rocca have stretched the Pies, who have done well to sneak into the eight under difficult conditions. Skipper Scott Burns remains sidelined with a calf muscle injury, but the `Pies were able to recall Dale Thomas. There are several players who can cause headaches for the Crows, chiefly Paul Medhurst who has stepped into the spotlight this season, and Leon Davis, who is almost a certainty when within scoring range, no matter what the angle to goal. Collingwood won’t be too concerned about playing on Adelaide’s home turf – the Magpies have won their past three games at AAMI Stadium and have also won two of their last three matches against the Crows. While the `Pies could not consider Burns, Adelaide also suffered a selection blow when Jason Porplyzia’s ongoing shoulder problem sidelined him.
Key: Travis Cloke is Collingwood’s key forward and the battle between him and star Adelaide backman Nathan Bock will be crucial. According to Cloke the honours were split 50-50 when the two last duelled in round 15, a match won by Collingwood at the MCG by 32 points.
Tip: Adelaide by 15 points

Second Elimination Final
Teams: SYDNEY V NORTH MELBOURNE
Venue: ANZ Stadium
Date: Saturday, September 6
Time: 7.30pm
Head.to.head: Sydney 74 North Melbourne 71 Drawn 1
Finals record: Sydney played 64 won 28 lost 36 drawn 0 North Melbourne played 63 won 30 lost 32 drawn 1
Last.time: North Melbourne 9.10 (64) drew Sydney 8.16 (64) R6 2008, Telstra Dome
Betting: TABSportsbet Sydney $1.68 North Melbourne $2.10 Centrebet Sydney $1.75 North Melbourne $2.10
Summary: The Kangaroos suffered a costly upset loss to Port Adelaide last week, meaning they gave up the double chance and have an unenviable cut-throat elimination final. Sydney, a somewhat enigmatic performer, meets them on their home soil at ANZ Stadium. The Swans beefed up their line-up with the recalls of star duo Adam Goodes and Ryan O’Keefe. Brownlow Medal fancy Brent Harvey is being spotlighted as the man who will lead the Kangaroos out of the middle while David Hale has become the go-to guy in the forward line recently, booting 15 goals in the past three matches. Defence will be vital with Michael Firrito set to line up on Barry Hall while at the other end Hale will have his hands full with the experienced and brave Leo Barry.
Key: North Melbourne need desperately to rediscover their famous spirit – whether it can be done in a week is the crucial question – and if they can’t stage a dramatic reversal in a short time they’ll be out the door.
Tip: Swans by 20 points

First Qualifying Final
Teams: GEELONG V ST KILDA
Venue: MCG
Date: Sunday, September 7
Time: 2.40pm
Head.to.head: Geelong 121 St Kilda 79 Drawn 0
Finals record: Geelong played 92 won 37 lost 54 drawn 1 St Kilda played 41 won 16 lost 25 drawn 0
Last.time: Geelong 21.10 (136) bt St Kilda 13.16 (94) R4 2008, Telstra Dome
Betting: TABSportsbet Geelong $1.14 St Kilda $5.25 Centrebet Geelong $1.14 St Kilda $6
Summary: No sane football observer gives St Kilda a prayer in this game. Cats coach Mark Thompson has an over-supply of talent and with up to four fresh players available for selection he just can’t see that many changes, if any, because what he has already is too good for any other side. Last time, back in round four, the Cats won by 42 points doing what they’ve done all year, strolling though a ho-hum first quarter then piling on the pressure to steadily leave the opposition choking in their wake. The Cats’ finals campaign won’t be harmed by yesterday’s re-signing of hard-working midfielder Paul Chapman, who joins the side’s other stars as committing for a further couple of years. With all the leaders in place the Brisbane-style dynasty might have begun, but there are obstacles to be overcome in the immediate future, chiefly Nick Riewoldt, the big forward on whom the Saints will be pinning much of their hopes. Riewoldt will have to play to peak form to present Geelong with any problems. The Cats are more than stocked with capable defenders, from Tom Harley to Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn and Andrew Mackie and even Harry Taylor, a tall defender with pace and endurance but nevertheless a first year player. St Kilda’s on-ballers and midfielders, Lenny Hayes, Stephen Milne, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna and the retiring Robert Harvey are a potent group but Geelong’s are simply better. Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Cameron Ling, Chapman and co. are a fearless bunch who have overcome virtually every challenge in a season in which the Cats have dropped just one game.
Key St Kilda will have to start strong and stay strong if they are to have any hope at all. If the Saints all play to their peak ability they may lose by a respectable margin
Tip: Geelong by 40 points

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