Who will win the Tri-Nations?
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By ohtani\'s jacket, 5 Sep 2008 The Crowd is a Roar Pro
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It’s time to go out on a limb and make a prediction for the deciding Tri Nations Test. I’m picking the All Blacks to win and I expect it to be as a result of a strong defensive effort.
The All Blacks have the better pack, they’re more organised at the breakdown, less shaky in the set pieces, and savvier in terms of dealing with Kaplan.
My biggest concern is that the backline doesn’t fire.
The hit-out against Samoa was an excuse for the backs to cut loose. There won’t be as many try scoring opportunities in Brisbane, but just a fraction of the ball handling and passing from Taranaki could win the match.
We can’t rely on Carter to carry the attack.
This is the time of year when everyone is carrying a niggle or two, but the boys have two weeks off after this. If they want to enjoy their hard earned break, they’ll need to use the space and width down the wing like they did against Samoa.
The Eden Park tactics won’t work again. We need to be more dynamic in attack.
There’s no underestimating the fact that Australia are playing at home. The Wallabies will erase history from their memories and focus solely on this Test match. Brisbane is a cauldron and a difficult place to play at.
The 2006 Test match was one of the more tense affairs I’ve witnessed. It was won and lost with moments of brilliance and mistakes under pressure.
If you value the old campaigners, you’d have to go with New Zealand. If you like the new faces, too fresh to know better, Australia have the edge.
As much as I’d love for the All Blacks to spare my blood pressure and wallop the Aussies, I expect a hard fought Test match with the All Blacks to win 21-16.
And if the Wallabies win?
Well, as Bill Russell said to Wilt Chamberlain, “Great baby, great.”
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Benjamin said | September 5th 2008 @ 2:52am | Report comment
It all depends on Barnes and Vickermann. Provisionally I will say NZ by 8+ but may change that upon seeing the team sheets.
LeftArmSpinner said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:23am | Report comment
OJ, I agree with your assessment but I live in hope and in Dingo.
The 3N has given each team a series of situations, and generally they have performed similarly. For example, it is now the Wallabies who have their backs to the wall just as NZ did in Auckland and Boks in J’burg. AB and Boks stood up. can Wallabies do the same??
The difference is that the AB’s now have something tangible and immediate to play for, the 3N. We can expect them to be more determined than any of the traveling/losing 3N teams in earlier games.
Dingo needs to go with consistency, so it is either Barnes (unlikley to be fit) or, or, or, uuuummmmm……(pause) Mortlock at 12 and Cross at 13, with Tahu on the bench and getting last 30 minutes.
So team my team is: AAC, Tuqiri, Cross, Mortlock, Hynes, Giteau, Cordingley, Palu, Elsom, Smith, Mumm, Horwill, Baxter, Moore, Robinson: res: PTN, McMeniman, Dunning, Waugh, Sheehan, Tahu Mitchell.
Tactics will be to play a fully committed game, with every player doing a little bit more than usual. Give AB’s nothing by contesting every marginal ball at the breakdown by counter-ruck and take McCaw out with cleanout. If this is not happening, hook Cordingley for Sheehan early (25-30 minute) to effectively add an extra forward!!
Break even at scrum time, as determined by quality of resulting ball. Win lineout battle by disrupting AB’s.
With this platform in place, i.e. going forward, then go wide in backs, but only when they are going forward.
Wallabies defence must stand up, as they have in past wins.
My head says AB’s by 3, heart says Wallabies by 5.
sheek said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:37am | Report comment
It would be an injustice if the Wallabies won the 3N in spite of two spineless capitulations. No, I wouldn’t like that, even as an Aussie. The Wallabies don’t deserve to win the 3N this year.
Rather, I look forward to Deans continuing the development of the team & winning the 3N in 2009, 10 & 11, plus the World Cup in 2011. A little pain now, & greater pleasure later!
Peter K said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:37am | Report comment
OJ , who will win , obviously a rhetorical question from you. Your only concern is if the AB backline does not fire.
After all the AB’s are a better team (always are), better pack (always have).
If you merged the teams the Wallabies would be lucky to get 2 in the merged team, and then probably on the bench and one would be the water boy. Always the case isn’t it?
Only AB’s and SA are true rugby nations and Wallabies are wannabe’s after all.
Wallabies lack depth, they are soft, play players out of position.
To beat them all you have to do is play at pace, everyone knows that.
Actually all the above has been the case for 100 years. Wallabies should hardly ever beat any of the giants of rugby, let alone the almighty all blacks.
In fact its a bloody wonder that the wallabies ever win against the AB’s , of course if by some miracle they do it is ONLY because of how poorly the AB’s played or the ref gave it to the Wallabies.
Peter K said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:41am | Report comment
sheek – I do not agree.
True champions are measured how they come back from adversity. If the Wallabies do win, with the odds so stacked against them, of course they deserve the TN’s.
As you have said before we really do have an ordinary team, so it is expected to get wallaped every now and again. If they can lift and beat better teams then of course they deserve it.
Mark H said | September 5th 2008 @ 11:05am | Report comment
Well any Aussie who dosnt back his own team is a goose. Its not if. Thats the problem with Australian Rugby we always say if. The Kiwis dont. Stop being such bloody pessimists. At least in this game we have competition.
So, I recon we will do the ABs over, the hit out against Samoa did them no favours what so ever. If anything it will make them sloppy and push passes and make silly errors. Having another week off might be a little too long between drinks. The ABs self destruct quiet easily if the pressure is put on them. Shut Richie down or out and make Dan have a look. Anything will happen.
Australia by 15.
Mark said | September 5th 2008 @ 11:28am | Report comment
backs to the walls, wounded Wallabies, are you guys for real ?? They’ve won 2 from 2 at home, won 1 from 3 on the road INCLUDING one in SA, have won the same amount of games as NZ, are playing at home, & only had one real shocker……
Talk about grabbing the underdog tag….what a load of…….
That being said, AB’s by 10-15 as they’ve finally got the losse forward mix right & have the experience in the pack.
Jerry said | September 5th 2008 @ 11:57am | Report comment
Mark, losing by 29 points is a shocker for the Wallabies so they’ve had at least two.
Mark H said | September 5th 2008 @ 12:16pm | Report comment
Getting their arses kicked might just get them back on track. I agree with Mark, underdogs my bum.
stillmissit said | September 5th 2008 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
Mark H – My goose is cooked. I cant believe that they will lift after the mining disaster in Jo’Burg has left us in a hole. AB’s by 10 but could be another view of the pants.
Benjamin agree that Vickerman and Barnes if fit could make a difference but still can’t win in my book.
Sheek – A win by any means would be great to me. I do agree with what you are saying but I am not as justice oriented as your good self.
Peter K – stop dodging the bullet and make a call win or lose and what margin. The team call won’t make a lot of difference, assume Vickerman and Barnes are out.