By ohtani\'s jacket
September 5th 2008 @ 12:28am
Loading ...Who will win the Tri-Nations?
It’s time to go out on a limb and make a prediction for the deciding Tri Nations Test. I’m picking the All Blacks to win and I expect it to be as a result of a strong defensive effort.
The All Blacks have the better pack, they’re more organised at the breakdown, less shaky in the set pieces, and savvier in terms of dealing with Kaplan.
My biggest concern is that the backline doesn’t fire.
The hit-out against Samoa was an excuse for the backs to cut loose. There won’t be as many try scoring opportunities in Brisbane, but just a fraction of the ball handling and passing from Taranaki could win the match.
We can’t rely on Carter to carry the attack.
This is the time of year when everyone is carrying a niggle or two, but the boys have two weeks off after this. If they want to enjoy their hard earned break, they’ll need to use the space and width down the wing like they did against Samoa.
The Eden Park tactics won’t work again. We need to be more dynamic in attack.
There’s no underestimating the fact that Australia are playing at home. The Wallabies will erase history from their memories and focus solely on this Test match. Brisbane is a cauldron and a difficult place to play at.
The 2006 Test match was one of the more tense affairs I’ve witnessed. It was won and lost with moments of brilliance and mistakes under pressure.
If you value the old campaigners, you’d have to go with New Zealand. If you like the new faces, too fresh to know better, Australia have the edge.
As much as I’d love for the All Blacks to spare my blood pressure and wallop the Aussies, I expect a hard fought Test match with the All Blacks to win 21-16.
And if the Wallabies win?
Well, as Bill Russell said to Wilt Chamberlain, “Great baby, great.”
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Benjamin said | September 5th 2008 @ 2:52am | Report comment
It all depends on Barnes and Vickermann. Provisionally I will say NZ by 8+ but may change that upon seeing the team sheets.
LeftArmSpinner said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:23am | Report comment
OJ, I agree with your assessment but I live in hope and in Dingo.
The 3N has given each team a series of situations, and generally they have performed similarly. For example, it is now the Wallabies who have their backs to the wall just as NZ did in Auckland and Boks in J’burg. AB and Boks stood up. can Wallabies do the same??
The difference is that the AB’s now have something tangible and immediate to play for, the 3N. We can expect them to be more determined than any of the traveling/losing 3N teams in earlier games.
Dingo needs to go with consistency, so it is either Barnes (unlikley to be fit) or, or, or, uuuummmmm……(pause) Mortlock at 12 and Cross at 13, with Tahu on the bench and getting last 30 minutes.
So team my team is: AAC, Tuqiri, Cross, Mortlock, Hynes, Giteau, Cordingley, Palu, Elsom, Smith, Mumm, Horwill, Baxter, Moore, Robinson: res: PTN, McMeniman, Dunning, Waugh, Sheehan, Tahu Mitchell.
Tactics will be to play a fully committed game, with every player doing a little bit more than usual. Give AB’s nothing by contesting every marginal ball at the breakdown by counter-ruck and take McCaw out with cleanout. If this is not happening, hook Cordingley for Sheehan early (25-30 minute) to effectively add an extra forward!!
Break even at scrum time, as determined by quality of resulting ball. Win lineout battle by disrupting AB’s.
With this platform in place, i.e. going forward, then go wide in backs, but only when they are going forward.
Wallabies defence must stand up, as they have in past wins.
My head says AB’s by 3, heart says Wallabies by 5.
sheek said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:37am | Report comment
It would be an injustice if the Wallabies won the 3N in spite of two spineless capitulations. No, I wouldn’t like that, even as an Aussie. The Wallabies don’t deserve to win the 3N this year.
Rather, I look forward to Deans continuing the development of the team & winning the 3N in 2009, 10 & 11, plus the World Cup in 2011. A little pain now, & greater pleasure later!
Peter K said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:37am | Report comment
OJ , who will win , obviously a rhetorical question from you. Your only concern is if the AB backline does not fire.
After all the AB’s are a better team (always are), better pack (always have).
If you merged the teams the Wallabies would be lucky to get 2 in the merged team, and then probably on the bench and one would be the water boy. Always the case isn’t it?
Only AB’s and SA are true rugby nations and Wallabies are wannabe’s after all.
Wallabies lack depth, they are soft, play players out of position.
To beat them all you have to do is play at pace, everyone knows that.
Actually all the above has been the case for 100 years. Wallabies should hardly ever beat any of the giants of rugby, let alone the almighty all blacks.
In fact its a bloody wonder that the wallabies ever win against the AB’s , of course if by some miracle they do it is ONLY because of how poorly the AB’s played or the ref gave it to the Wallabies.
Peter K said | September 5th 2008 @ 10:41am | Report comment
sheek – I do not agree.
True champions are measured how they come back from adversity. If the Wallabies do win, with the odds so stacked against them, of course they deserve the TN’s.
As you have said before we really do have an ordinary team, so it is expected to get wallaped every now and again. If they can lift and beat better teams then of course they deserve it.
Mark H said | September 5th 2008 @ 11:05am | Report comment
Well any Aussie who dosnt back his own team is a goose. Its not if. Thats the problem with Australian Rugby we always say if. The Kiwis dont. Stop being such bloody pessimists. At least in this game we have competition.
So, I recon we will do the ABs over, the hit out against Samoa did them no favours what so ever. If anything it will make them sloppy and push passes and make silly errors. Having another week off might be a little too long between drinks. The ABs self destruct quiet easily if the pressure is put on them. Shut Richie down or out and make Dan have a look. Anything will happen.
Australia by 15.
Mark said | September 5th 2008 @ 11:28am | Report comment
backs to the walls, wounded Wallabies, are you guys for real ?? They’ve won 2 from 2 at home, won 1 from 3 on the road INCLUDING one in SA, have won the same amount of games as NZ, are playing at home, & only had one real shocker……
Talk about grabbing the underdog tag….what a load of…….
That being said, AB’s by 10-15 as they’ve finally got the losse forward mix right & have the experience in the pack.
Jerry said | September 5th 2008 @ 11:57am | Report comment
Mark, losing by 29 points is a shocker for the Wallabies so they’ve had at least two.
Mark H said | September 5th 2008 @ 12:16pm | Report comment
Getting their arses kicked might just get them back on track. I agree with Mark, underdogs my bum.
stillmissit said | September 5th 2008 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
Mark H – My goose is cooked. I cant believe that they will lift after the mining disaster in Jo’Burg has left us in a hole. AB’s by 10 but could be another view of the pants.
Benjamin agree that Vickerman and Barnes if fit could make a difference but still can’t win in my book.
Sheek – A win by any means would be great to me. I do agree with what you are saying but I am not as justice oriented as your good self.
Peter K – stop dodging the bullet and make a call win or lose and what margin. The team call won’t make a lot of difference, assume Vickerman and Barnes are out.
Mark H said | September 5th 2008 @ 1:38pm | Report comment
Stillmissit,
Comon mate, this talk is crap. Be proud son. Bugger all these wet backs from over the ditch. We are going to win this and Im off to Hong Kong…with the missus…to watch the decider of the Bled.
stillmissit said | September 5th 2008 @ 1:51pm | Report comment
Mark H – If we had had 15 guys on the pitch in Jo’Burg who feel like you do, I wouldnt be feeling like I do.
Enjoy your trip to Hong Kong, great for shopping and eating, I will just stay here and slit my wrists.
sheek said | September 5th 2008 @ 1:59pm | Report comment
Peter K,
Accept the sentiment of your comment. Be happy for the Wallabies to win of course, but from an unbiased position, hardly deserving in light of those two pathetic defeats.
Mark H,
Call me a goose, if it makes you feel better. Ditto my second sentence above.
Stillmissit,
Perhaps my weakness is I’m too justice-orientated. I still think victory should go to the consistently most deserving, which in most cases tends to happen.
Of course, justice hasn’t helped the consistently most deserving team (ABs) at every World Cup since 1987. The flip side is, teams that shoot themselves in the foot, deserve what happens to them, which is the fate of every ABs team since 1987.
General comment,
I expect better things from the Wallabies in the years ahead. I still believe you must crawl before you walk, & walk before you run. The Wallabies still need some lessons to learn, & changes in personnel & structure.
As a baby boomer, I still believe that sometimes gratification delayed is gratification magnified.
Mark said | September 5th 2008 @ 2:01pm | Report comment
Mark H – ‘wetbacks’ – what does this mean ? After 20 yrs I thought I’d heard every conceivable insult but that’s a new one….
Jerry said | September 5th 2008 @ 2:01pm | Report comment
“The ABs self destruct quiet easily if the pressure is put on them.”
Must be pretty hard to put the pressure on them then.
There’s a widespread notion that the AB’s can’t win the close ones, but it’s not really accurate. They do win the close ones, it’s just that when they lose it’s almost always by a very small margin. The AB’s have lost 30 matches since 1995, only 6 of those losses by a margin of 10 points or more . The AB’s almost NEVER get blown out in the way Australia have twice in this TN (the biggest loss in AB history is 21 points, where as every other rugby nation has endured at least a 40 point hiding). Invariably, when they lose it’s a close match so people get it into their heads that they always lose the close ones. It’s simply not accurate.
Jerry said | September 5th 2008 @ 2:06pm | Report comment
Wetbacks is a (slightly racist) term used to describe Mexican (and sometimes Cuban) immigrants to the US. The idea is that they’ve had to swim accross a river to get to the US or arrived in a boat. I guess Mark was using it to describe Kiwi immigrants to Aus?
Or I could be barking up the wrong tree and he just meant other posters were wet blankets?
ohtani's jacket said | September 5th 2008 @ 2:38pm | Report comment
Mark H, that’s the spirit.
If people think the Wallabies will win, let’s hear it.
Mitch O said | September 5th 2008 @ 4:05pm | Report comment
Wallabies win? extermely doubtful, unless they manage to find props who can prop and a hooker that can throw straight in the next 7 days. Mortlock at 2nd and Cross at centre would almost guarantee the AB’s victory. No doubting the atmosphere was intense at Brisbane the last time, but it wasn’t enough then either. AB’s by 10+.
stu said | September 5th 2008 @ 5:43pm | Report comment
Doesn’t matter who is in the wallaby team, if an above poster is correct and j.kaplan is the ref the wallabies stand NO chance. Australian teams who play in games refereed by Kaplan almost always lose…….why is is?
ohtani's jacket said | September 5th 2008 @ 6:22pm | Report comment
How the Wallabies can beat the All Blacks:
First and foremost, the Wallabies need to focus on their defence.
They need to make stronger first up tackles. They can’t let the All Blacks gain extra metres over the advantage line as it creates a roll on effect. They need to tackle with lower body position and shut down the channels either side of the ruck. If the put pressure on Carter and stifle his outside backs, they’ll pressure the All Blacks into handling mistakes and turnovers. The All Blacks can turn bad ball into tries against Samoa, but against the Wallabies they ought to be driven back in the tackle.
I expect the All Blacks to run when they can. I don’t think they ran up the score against Samoa for kicks. They’ll be targetting the space down the wings, something they perfected over the past few years. The Wallabies need to either shut that option down in midfield or close the space on the wings. They’d be well advised to kick for touch.
If the All Blacks employ the kicking game, Australia need to do a better job with their kick returns and make sure they win their own ball from the lineouts.
It’s a tough defensive assignment, but if they’re organised and support each other, good things will happen.
On attack the Wallabies made some uncharacteristic errors at Ellis Park (Giteau’s floater, Tiquiri not holding onto the pass.) You’d expect the passes to stick at home, but it’s a pressure cooker for the Wallabies too. This isn’t the best All Black defence of the past five years, but they get to the breakdown in numbers. I don’t recommend playing a tight game against this All Blacks pack, instead I think the Wallabies should try to emulate the way South Africa played last weekend. The All Blacks are very good at killing the ball on their own goal line, but if you work a corner, clear the ball quickly and barge your way up the middle before swinging it wide, even the All Blacks run out of defenders. Whether the Wallabies have the forwards to secure the ball or the halfback to clear it from the ruck, I’m not sure.
Like any Test match, you can really only prepare for how you want to play. The All Blacks might kick away all of their possession or they might run from midfield. Hopefully they’ll mix it up, but if the Wallabies respect that it’s a territory game and that set pieces are crucial, and if they defend like their lives depend on it, there will be plenty of grins on the Roar in the coming weeks.
Of course none of this takes into account the actual Test match — receiving the kick-off, making your early clearances, the first couple of lineouts, the first scrum, the effect of scoring first… but generally speaking this is the way I see it.
McCaw’s ribs might throw him off a bit, there could be an injury, Kaplan may even be more stringent on the All Blacks. The key to any of these circumstances is adaptibility. It’s not something Henry or Deans can coach no matter how much emphasis we put on the men in the box. It comes from years and years of playing rugby and the senior players will be crucial to whoever wins.
The reason I picked the All Blacks is because they have the pedigree. They’re the three time defending champion. Their players have won multiple Super rugby titles and Tri-Nations titles. They’re playing away but that’s no excuse. Quite frankly, I expect them to win. If they don’t, I’ll be disappointed. I won’t call for Henry’s head or axing anyone, I’ll simply think they should’ve done better.
Eventually I’d like to see someone break NZ’s stranglehold on the Tri-Nations, but this year, under these circumstances, I’d like to see a strong New Zealand performance.
craig said | September 5th 2008 @ 6:24pm | Report comment
I think its great that we are even tossing up the result as anything but a monty. When was the last time we reallly thought the Wallabies could win against the AB’s(prior to this year that is)?? I don’t know if the Wallabies will win, but I know they CAN and for now that fills me with joy. BRING ON BRISBANE!!!!!
Peter K said | September 5th 2008 @ 7:30pm | Report comment
My prediction is that Kaplan will decide the game in the AB’s favour in the last 10 minutes with a bad or at least a controversial call.
matty p said | September 6th 2008 @ 7:26am | Report comment
Good call Craig. Nice to see us going into the last game with an actual chance of pulling off the whole shooting match, even though we are probably underdogs on the day. Car’n the wobblies.
Mungo said | September 6th 2008 @ 9:05am | Report comment
Wallabies bash the ABs in Sydney and its how much the W are going to beat them in the next test, Wallabies belt the Boks and we hear the same for the next test, Now we’re hearing how much the ABs are going to beat the W by. Go with history gentlemen the Wallabies by 15