Preview of this weekend’s NRL qualifying finals

Preview of this weekend’s National Rugby League qualifying finals (all times AEST, prefix denotes regular season finish).

FRIDAY
4-SYDNEY ROOSTERS v 5-BRISBANE at Sydney Football Stadium, 7.35pm

Head to head: Broncos 25, Roosters 20

Last match: Broncos 20-14 at SFS (Rnd 2, 2008)

TAB Sportsbet: Roosters $2.25, Broncos $1.60

Footy TAB: Roosters +3.5 points

The most evenly matched of the four qualifying finals with appetising match-ups all over the park and in the coaches’ box. Minichiello v Hunt, Anasta v Lockyer, Pearce v Wallace, Hannant v O’Meley and of course veteran finals mentor Wayne Bennett putting his tactical nous up against rookie playoff coach Brad Fittler. The Broncos are the team every other finals contender appears to be fearing - not because of what they have done this year, but more so what they are capable of doing. Bennett described the feeling heading into the finals as similar to that of 2006, when the Broncos upset a red-hot Melbourne side to win the competition. Playing at the Sydney Football Stadium won’t hold any fears for the visitors, who have won 31 of their 40 games at the venue including a 13 win-7 loss record in finals. The loss of Willie Mason is a blow for the Roosters, but the return of Anthony Minichiello gives them more spark in attack.

Key: The battle of the young No.7s. Peter Wallace and Mitchell Pearce shared the NSW halfback jumper in this season’s Origin series, but the pressure will be on to perform in their finals debut.

Tip: Broncos

SATURDAY
3-CRONULLA v 6-CANBERRA at Toyota Stadium, 6:30pm

Head to head: Sharks 27, Raiders 23

Last match: Sharks 36-24 at Canberra Stadium (Rnd 16, 2008)

TAB Sportsbet: Sharks $1.38, Raiders $2.90

Footy TAB: Raiders +7.5 points

It’s the proverbial irresistible force up against immovable object at Toyota Stadium. Canberra have lit up the league with their refreshing brand of carefree football with in-form five-eighth Terry Campese the catalyst behind much of it. The biggest problem for the Raiders could be at the other end of the field, where they have shown a propensity to leak easy points. Even the Bulldogs, with the worst attacking record in the competition, managed to run up 34 points against them last week, and that was with superboot Hazem El Masri missing four of his six conversions. The Sharks on the other hand have built everything they have achieved this year on the third-best defence in the competition. They’ve hardly missed a beat since the standing down of Greg Bird for off-field disciplinary reasons, and there have been signs in recent weeks that their attack has the ability to go beyond the 50-50 high ball for one of their wingers.

Key: Cronulla need to stick to what they know best, which is grinding out wins, because if it turns into a track meet the Raiders could cause a boilover.

Tip: Sharks

2-MANLY v 7-ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA at Brookvale Oval, 8:30pm

Head to head: Dragons 9, Sea Eagles 3

Last match: Dragons 20-18 at Brookvale Oval (Rnd 11, 2008)

TAB Sportsbet: Sea Eagles $1.40, Dragons $2.80

Footy TAB: Dragons +7.5 points

Rarely has a No.2 seed been under as much pressure as Manly to come up with a win in the opening week of the finals. The match-up with the Dragons would have been the least preferred of all the permutations last week’s regular season round could have tossed up. Amazingly for a side which carries inconsistency as its calling card, the Dragons have been, well, remarkably consistent against the Sea Eagles. With seven wins from their past eight clashes and three from their past four at Brookvale Oval, Manly would appear to be the Dragons’ bunnies. Despite all that, the home side is still warm favourite heading into this one given the fact they along with the Storm were the dominant force in the NRL this season. Jamie Lyon’s return to five-eighth will ease the playmaking load on Matt Orford, who should be buoyed by his Dally M medal win on Tuesday night. The biggest factor could be who Dragons coach Nathan Brown slots in at five-eighth with Ben Rogers and Jamie Soward both vying for the berth.

Key: The kicking game. If Jamie Soward doesn’t play, the Dragons could struggle for kicking options while the pressure will again be on Matt Orford to perform on the big stage.

Tip: Sea Eagles

SUNDAY
1-MELBOURNE v 8-NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS at Olympic Park, 4pm

Head to head: Storm 11, Warriors 9, drawn 1

Last match: Warriors 8-6 at Mt Smart Stadium (Rnd 20, 2008)

TAB Sportsbet: Storm $1.13, Warriors $5.50

Footy TAB: Warriors +16.5 points

On the face of it there’s not a lot going for the Warriors heading into this clash with the Storm juggernaut. First there’s the fact the game is being played at Olympic Park, where the Storm have lost twice in the last three seasons. It also happens to be this side of the Tasman where the Warriors have struggled ever since they came into the competition. There’s also the absence of fullback Wade McKinnon due to suspension, up against a Test-calibre Storm side virtually at full-strength. The one thing going for the Warriors is the fact that if anyone is Melbourne’s bogey side, it’s the men in black. Of Melbourne’s two most recent losses at home, one has come against the Warriors, a 24-20 defeat at Olympic Park in 2006. They also beat the Storm 8-6 in round 20 this year, while they were unlucky to go down 4-2 at Mt Smart Stadium last year. Those last two matches were played in the wet, and with rain predicted for Melbourne on Sunday, another upset isn’t out of the question.

Key: The Warriors need to make this one an ugly contest, because if it’s open, the Storm would appear to have too much firepower.

Tip: Storm

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