By David Wiseman
September 19th 2008 @ 4:45am
Cats by plenty, Hawks by a whisker
Here’s your guide to picking the winners from this weekend’s two AFL preliminary finals.
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Preliminary Final 1 – Geelong vs Western Bulldogs (MCG, 7.40pm AEST tonight)
The Bulldogs rightfully claimed their spot in the final four with a spirited win over Sydney. Now they face Mission Impossible should they choose to accept. Paul Roos was right on the money when he said “history tells you it’s very hard to keep on winning in finals.”
The Bulldogs have won finals here and there over the years but have only won multiple finals in the same campaign twice – the first in 1954 when they captured their only flag and the second in 1961 when they played in their last Grand Final.
This wouldn’t rank up there with Essendon vs Carlton of 1999 but it would be up there in terms of an upset.
The Dogs have played more finals against the Cats than anyone else. They’ve met in September on eight previous occasions and seven of those are the only times these two have met at the MCG. The last time was an 82-point thumping the Dogs received in 1995.
No matter what way you look at it, you’d have to be a pretty brave man to tip the Bulldogs, even more so after the Cats have had the week off. The Cats are purring like a well-oiled machine and are playing Total Football like nobody has before. Well maybe like they did last year.
Prediction: Geelong by 38 points
Preliminary Final 2 – Hawthorn vs St Kilda (MCG, 7pm AEST on Saturday night)
Last week was a huge one for St Kilda. Lose, they’re out in straight sets and nothing is going right. But they won, are in a preliminary final, extended Robert Harvey’s career by a week and could somehow pull off an upset.
What the Swans did to them in 2005, they have the chance to do to Hawthorn and if Nick Riewoldt plays like he did last week, anything is possible.
The Hawks haven’t been to a Grand Final since 1991. Not a long time but an eternity for those fans from Glenferrie who enjoyed going to seven straight Premiership deciders in the 1980s. In those days Hawthorn playing in the Grand Final was as certain as death and taxes.
Preliminary finals are always drama-filled because of the desire to play in the big one and while Hawthorn should prevail it may be a lot closer than what many think.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 8 points
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Tricky Trindall said | September 19th 2008 @ 9:19am | Report comment
David, I tend to agree with your analysis in what should be a great weekend of finals footy in Melbourne.
Geelong will dominate and it is a question of whether the Bulldogs can hold them within their 39 point handicap range which a lot of good judges reckon they can’t. Bookies across the country are holding some big bets on the Cats to cover the 39. It is interesting to see that you think they will win by just over 6 goals…
In the Hawks game, I hear their might be some poor weather hitting Melbourne tomorrow afternoon (but how often are forecasters right, hey?!) which will really restrict the Hawks style of play and give the Saints an edge. If the weather does come into play, expect the Saints to shorten a lot in betting.
Redb said | September 19th 2008 @ 9:55am | Report comment
The Bulldogs reckon they have a chance against the Cats, I think they’re kidding themselves. Geelong in a home and way game is different to a Geelong in the finals. Any time a team played Geelong this year they threw everything at them, the Cats still won the games (except Collingwood). Now its finals the Cats can go up another gear and in the end it will be by how much?
Hawks V Saints will be closer if Reiwoldt fires, the but realiltyis the Hawks are too strong through the midfield and play an aggresive take no prisoners approach, I suspect the two week break has really helped them and they will thunder away at the Saints until their fragile glass world cracks. This game maybe closer, if the Hawks come to play though its all over for the Sainters.
Geelong v Hawthorn is the Grand Final most fans want to see, on their day the Hawks with Buddy Franklin are the only team who have a chance to beat the Cats. I suspect if the Saints manage to get over the Hawks they would have aready played their ‘Grand Final’ by the time they make it. No its got to be Hawthorn v Geelong.
The odds are good for a classic encounter in the Grand Final – the aura of 1989 still haunts the Cats.
Redb
David Wiseman said | September 19th 2008 @ 9:58pm | Report comment
I agree with both you guys.
Geelong Hawthorn is the dream Grand Final but its a year early. Had it been next year would have meshed nicely with the 20th anniversary!
Redb said | September 20th 2008 @ 11:02pm | Report comment
We have the Grand Final we wanted. The Hawks look dangerous without much infleucne from Buddy Franklin, the Cats looked a bit sluggish but their teamwrok got them through.
Cant wait to next Saturday, as the cheese and kisses is a Geelong fan I hope they win becuase it wont be very ’sociable’ in my place if the hawks get up.
Redb