All Blacks at the crossroads

Four years ago, the All Blacks embarked on an end of season tour that dramatically changed the fortunes of New Zealand rugby. Up until that tour, local rugby had been in the mire.

Seven years is a long time to wait, so when the All Blacks destroyed the French 45-6 at Stade de France, even the most jaded of New Zealand rugby fans sensed something special had arrived.

Four years later, the All Blacks’ Grand Slam tour is shaping up to be just as important.

Ostensibly, the end of season goal is to win every match on tour, claim a Grand Slam scalp and cap off a remarkable comeback year for coach Graham Henry.

However, this tour is more than just a victory march through Europe. The success of this tour will play a large part in determining the future competitiveness of All Black rugby.

Throughout All Black history there have been the great sides and the not-so-great sides.

In recent times, the All Blacks have been the most dominant side in the world, comparable to how they were in the late 80s. But as we’ve seen in the past twenty years, sustaining that dominance has become next to impossible.

These days a great side has two to three years max. In all my years of watching rugby, no side has extended their run for longer.

The All Blacks in the 60s, the Welsh in the 70s, the French in the 80s, those decades of dominance seem a thing of the past.

This is a reality of modern, professional rugby that doesn’t bode well for New Zealand’s 2011 World Cup campaign.

The World Cup may be out of sight, out of mind for now, but with an increasingly number of players re-signing with the NZRU, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that there’s a sense of unfinished business among the players, coaches and top brass.

The All Black machine is gearing itself towards the World Cup like it always does.

Yet if Henry’s All Blacks continue to play rugby like they have done for the past four or five years, they will taper off.

If they taper off, it could take another seven years to reach the top. They didn’t win the last World Cup, so they won’t make the next Final on fumes or the smell of an oily rag.

What’s needed is a fresh injection of talent while they still have the backbone of a great side.

Perhaps the biggest reason the All Blacks won the 2008 Tri-Nations was the mix between senior All Blacks, new caps and recalled players.

The guys who had “been there, done that” were reinvigorated by the new boys, and the new boys were desperate to win for their seniors. It wasn’t the best side the All Blacks have fielded under Henry, and there were huge bumps in the road, but therein lies the key to the future.

Almost every rugby observer is happy with the squad Graham Henry named for the end of year tour.

There’s a feeling that Henry struck the right balance between rewarding Test match experience with Air NZ Cup form. Instead of taking bolters, he’s asked promising young players to take the next step up at Super 14 level.

Only twenty two of those thirty five players can make up a team at any one time, resulting in an incredibly competitive tour where every minute of game time brings future opportunities to wear the black jersey and the number of positions up for grabs is immense.

By my reckoning, fullback, wing, second five, first five, the entire backrow, lock and tighthead are key positions where jerseys can be won or lost.

Some of the senior All Blacks won’t make the next World Cup. Their bodies simply won’t hold out.

Some of the best players are in desperate need of back-ups to ease their workload. A few of the positions require a genuine replacement. If there was ever a time to stake a claim on an All Black jersey, it’s now.

The All Blacks need to hammer the European teams and hammer them in style to show they’ve moved past the stage of a bare bones All Black side scrapping its way to a Tri-Nations title. They need to add some spark to the backs in particular.

Any young player who aids that cause will be an All Black next season, mark my words.

But should they stumble and stutter their way through Europe, they’ll leave a trail of blood for the hungry and waiting. This side has been too good for too long to not have the rest of the world wanting to kick them on their way down.

Thank God New Zealanders take their rugby tours seriously.

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