By Michael C
November 4th 2008 @ 1:38am

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A-League crowds will be down 133k this season

 Melbourne celebrate after beating Sydney 5- 0 in the A-League Football match between Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, Olympic Park, Melbourne Sunday, Oct. 16, 2005. AAP Image/Andrew Brownbill

There have been articles referring to the A-League crowd slump. I’m sticking with known facts to make some HAL attendance projections for the second half of V4. This is designed to illustrate just what the significance of the crowd decline so far might extrapolate to by the seasons end.

And just what hope there is within the last eleven rounds for a venue-by-venue rise in crowds over the run home.

So far this season, crowds are down more than 84,000 on V3, and are sitting in between V2 and V1. This, of course, does not take into account Adelaide United’s ACL crowds, which have been very good at home and a nice boost for their coffers.

We know that V1 to V2 saw an increase in overall attendances, almost exclusively due to the MVFC moving to TD. They drew an extra 160,000 people through the gate compared to V1.

In V3, the Wellington Phoenix accounted for 83,000 of the overall 140,000 increase.

The question for V4 was always, “Where will the improvement come from?”

Anyone with common sense could see that improvement hadn’t been as ‘even’ across the board as it would be preferred. So far, this has been answered in the double negative across the board. Not just that no-one is so far offering improvement, but that all clubs are suffering from a home crowd decline.

Using the ‘record high’ of V3 as the benchmark, all clubs are down on crowd averages on the completion of round 10 V4 versus the completion of round 10 V3.

In the past, some teams have experienced a late season ’surge’, or at least increase, in attendances in the run home to the finals. So a forecast allowing for the best exhibited increase in crowds for each venue from round 10 onwards looks like this:

Rnd 10: this is the current ’status’, in all cases a decline of round 10 V4 vs round 10 V3.
Best: Exhibited Rise from round 10 onwards in any previous season for each venue. NJ’s figure is skewed positively based on V2 increase from 7,300 in round 10 to 11,400 at season’s end. However, this is the rate of increase applied for ‘best case’. How likely is it?
Need percentage” the percentage increase on round 10 average to achieve a season average to match last year’s full season average crowd for each venue (nb. this is independent of the number of games).
Forecast Total Variance: using the best case percentage change from round 10 onwards, the sum total variation in crowd aggregates. The bracketed correction is for fairness, given 10 games vs 11 last year. However, the same correction is not used where there is only 10 games this year vs 11 games last year. So, for the overall impact, ignore the bracketed corrected figure. This clearly illustrates that Brisbane, Sydney and Wellington have a lot of work to do.

Rnd 10 Best Need% NeedAvg Forecast Total Var
QLD -16% 19% 68% 20,224 -52,526 (-35,575)
Well -37% -1% 107.5% 15,282 -36,047(inc 1 more game)
SFC -7% 7% 30% 18,521 -32,692 (-16,319)
NJs -6% 57% 27.4% 14,766 +3832 (+17,009)
CCM -2% 30% 61.6% 15,407 -5070 (inc 1 extra game)
MVFC -13% -2% 17% 27,906 -1173 (inc 1 extra game)
PG -0.7% 3% 8.11% 7892 -9333 (-1737)
AdeU -19% 9% 38.7% 13,602 -139 (+11,186)

MVFC for example, has 11 Telstra Dome games this year. The -1173 drop forecast is even with an extra game compared to last year. So the real terms (corrected) drop would be more around 25,000, give or take.

This gives you an idea of the Wellington scenario.

The overall figures (not using ‘corrected’), indicate, that even with best case (exhibited) crowd increases at each venue – that aggregate crowds will be down about 133,000 at season end. A drop of about 11% and just ahead of the V2 figure.

For reference, the mid case would be a drop of 187,000 and the worst case a drop of 232,000.

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Crowd Says (635)

jimbo said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:20am | Report comment

MC,
won’t be long before the A-League goes broke and AFL takes over the rest of Australia. :)’

True Tah said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:24am | Report comment

MC,

I think Sydney FC’s crowds will increase following last weekends game, and Adelaide shoudl increase on the back of a successful ACL campaign (it already is a success). MV are doing pretty well do.

The big problems are Perth, Wellington and Queensland Roar, the Roar should be dominating, but there are talks about going to Ballymore, why would they do that?

Dave said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:39am | Report comment

l look forward to the same analysis when the AFL crowds drop next season.

Unusual timing when 2 teams had there best crowds of the season in the last round SFC and AU.
Taking into account AUs ACL exploits more people have watched them this season at home than any of their years of existance…3 x capacity crowds with many tens of thousands unable to go to these games due to the small capacity of Hindmarsh. They just had their best HAL crowd of the season over 13,000.
MV was always going to have a levelling off season or two from their incredible growth early on…from 0 to 16,000 to 27,000. Their crowds are averaging just under 24,000 and with both SFC and AU to come plus the run into the finals (hopefully) their ave will probably be up on last season by the end…dont forget 55,000 also paid to see MV during the group stage of the ACL so add those figures in and their total attendances are probably up for this year.
QR are just dreadful at home and l’m suprised that anyone would go and watch them play at Suncorp…the fact that they have won only a handful of games at home in 3 1/3 seasons and still ave 12,000-13,000 is remarkable.
NJ and CCM will both ave around the same as last season as the run into the finals comes up with possibly NJ more likely to suffer a drop as they struggle on the field.
PG are not far off par and with signs of onfield performance improving will expect them to actually show a slight increase on last year.
SFC are a problem child but last week had their best attendance for a CCM match during the season over 18,000 a figure that almost matched the Swans finals crowd a month or two ago…maybe signs of improvement?
WP are in a slump both on and off the field…they struggle to score and definetly are not great to watch so in sense understandable their crowds have dropped. The weather has also been terrible for several games and that doesn’t help.

MC
You have raised the HAL attendances regularly since the start of the season…l just hope you keep mentioning them as crowds improve with the lead in to the finals. You didnt mention about the improvement in pay tv ratings this year and in the past 2 weeks MV’s games have both had on or over 100,000 viewers. Again comparable to some AFL and NRL games.
Keep up the good work but dont drop off when things turn around.

Dave said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:42am | Report comment

TT

QR are moving admin to Ballymore. At this stage no movement of games there but it must be expensive to hire Suncorp. l dont know what the crowd break even figure is but they would need more than 13,000 ave me thinks.
Is Ballymore close to the city centre and does it have good access, public transport? What is its capacity?

True Tah said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:46am | Report comment

Dave

Im not sure about Ballymore being close to the city, but the capacity used to be about 24K, the Qld Govt is contributing $4.2m to upgrade it, I understand it will be the training base for both the Roar and the Reds.

Suncorp is probably closer to public transport, with plenty of pubs close by, I think its about a 10 minute walk from Brisbane CBD.

Slippery Jim said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:54am | Report comment

Shouldn’t this article be under the “AFL” propaganda tab?

Couldn’t you have just put it in one line Michael C - ‘attendances are down in the A-League - good times for football haters everywhere’…I just can’t see the point of this article except to have a cheap gloat, it doesn’t say anything relevant at all.

Millster said  | November 4th 2008 @ 9:02am | Report comment

Can someone please do an analysis of the growth in people who bought a ticket to football of any kind (Socceroos, ACL, A-League, exhibition matches) over the last 5 years, and perhaps also taking 1998 as a ‘10-year-ago snapsot’ point. I think we will be most happy at the growth in support for our code even if it is not all directed only at our domestic comp.

oikee said  | November 4th 2008 @ 9:18am | Report comment

It does say something to me slippery jim, times are tough and i dont think rugby league will be expanding in a hurry, not after last years lousy crowds, think we had a couple of games where we only had 6 thousand turn up. Bottom teams yes, but still its not a good look when you think that AFL had a increase of everything across the board. And things wont improve for league but soccer has the best chance to improve and considering hard times is doing ok.

That move to ballymore would obviously be to save money, they are taking a pounding in brisbane with the roar gate not acheiving as planned, so a move to a smaller ground would be good for them at the momment. Once the crowds pick up then you just move back, no big deal. Also dont forget the roar can get 40 thousand when they are winning towards the end of the season. Brisbane mentality is they love winners, they would get behind the queensland reds if they were winning.

Losing is something we are not accustomed too. :)

Dave said  | November 4th 2008 @ 9:32am | Report comment

Speaking of HAL clubs good to see some excitement building in SA for the upcoming ACL final as from the FFA website:

“Adelaide celebs get behind The Reds
Tuesday, 4 November 2008

Nova’s Jules, Fitzy & Lisa. A number of South Australia’s celebrities are getting behind Adelaide United as the club takes on Japan’s Gamba Osaka in the AFC Champions League Final.

They may be in a battle for ratings but popular radio breakfast presenters from Triple M (Kym, Ali & Dzelde), Nova 919 (Fitzy, Jules & Lisa) and SAFM (Amber, Rabbit & Cosi) are all cheering on The Reds as the club attempts to become the unprecedented champions of Asian club football.

Adelaide’s commercial television networks’ nightly news services have also thrown their support behind the team, Channel 7 and Channel 9’s new presenters proudly leading the charge.

The Reds’ achievements in reaching the prestigious Final have ‘united’ the whole of South Australia and put Adelaide on the world football map, and supporters are expected to turn out in their droves at major LIVE sites across Adelaide to watch the two legs of the Final.

And while Adelaide is being taken in by the hype of Reds fever, football fans from around Australia are also pledging their support for the club as Coach Aurelio Vidmar and the boys represent the country in front of the estimated millions that will be following the game on television, radio and online.

It all kicks off in Osaka on Wednesday 5 November before the return match at Hindmarsh Stadium on November 12. Kick-Off for the 1st leg in Japan is at 8.30pm (ACDT).

Adelaide United FC would like to thank everyone who has proudly been supporting the club throughout the AFC Champions League journey and the Hyundai A-League, and also wants to convey its sincere gratitude to fans of other Hyundai A-League clubs that have wished the team luck throughout the competition.”

Although the title seems a an oxymoron if ever l’ve seen one (Adelaide and celebrity) :)

Towser said  | November 4th 2008 @ 10:04am | Report comment

. I predicted a major drop in crowds this year ages ago. In fact 133K is conservative. I predict more in fact. More like 200-250k in line historically with the MLS & J-League.
Dont even need to super analyse the figures .Just need to go to Roar matches at home & watch whats presented on the park. Is it better than season 3-No or season 1 maybe. Probably on a par with season 2.
Most Roar fans except the rose coloured glasses brigade feel the same. Hence the crowd drop till football reaches a standard that for my team the Roar deserves the average of 17,000 last year.
The last home game was abysmal & deja vu resulting in an outporing of emotion by Roar fans & an article in the Courier Mail by their leading sports columnist expressing the fans discontent.
So Dave theres your explanation for the Roars crowds this season . Pure & simply the display at home over the 4 seasons.
I would say in one way or another in differing ways but for the same basic reason-football standard this would apply to other clubs.
The one shining light is the quality of football shown by AU in the ACL. That is a more keeping possession sharp passing technical game. As I said in a previous post this is the same Adelaide United who beat the Roar at Suncorp the other week & played to the opposition. In other words the aerial long ball heading ping pong garbage was paramount. As I may have said before the ultra critical Frenchman next to me called it “Park Football” he wasn’t coming back anytime soon.. Fans leaving the stadium including me couldn’t disagree. Hence the forthcoming newspaper article.
As more teams participate in the ACL the influence of Asian clubs on our A-League will increase. Will CCM & NUJ play kick & rush football next year in the ACL. Not likely if they wish to progress past the first round & pocket some more cash.

The only thing in this article that I would acknowledge is the mention of the Wellington Phoenix.
I’m starting to get a deja -vu NZ Knights feel about them.
Not good.

Dave

Regarding Ballymore. Its close to the city. In particular its close to me. 10 minutes drive away. But Suncorp is only 3 minutes more so personally neither are an issue.
Some fans have complained that it is less accessible to them than Suncorp & I get their point. Particularly those who come by train from the outer suburbs. They will have to change to go to Ballymore rather than just walk to the ground from the station as per Suncorp. But I’m sure Shuttle buses etc could be arranged.
Lets face it Rugby fans used it for years & they seemed to have no problem getting there & filling it on occassions.
As for the ground itself ,the training surface is better than Richlands(origonal Roar base) according to Craig Moore when the Socceroos trained there before the Qatar match. There is talk of a major upgrade to Ballymore so that its all seated(depending on funds available) so if this happens I see the Roar playing there as its capacity(25,000) is more suited to their crowds except for one or twothat could be moved to Suncorp anyway.
Personally either way I dont care both grounds suit me. I’m more concerned that the Roar improve their showing at home than where they play to be honest.

Joe FC said  | November 4th 2008 @ 10:13am | Report comment

No doubt Michael C HAL crowds will be down this season compared to last, by how much remains to be seen. However total attendances at HAL, ACL, WCQ & ACQ matches will be up this season over last, as will television audiences & merchandise sales.

Towser said  | November 4th 2008 @ 10:15am | Report comment

Oikee

Cannot disagre with the “winning ” mentality in Brisbane.
Regardless of what the Roar do away their home record is hampering their ability to grow in Brisbane.

Lazza said  | November 4th 2008 @ 12:10pm | Report comment

Michael C,

Adelaide UTD are generating huge interest here in Adelaide. Interest in the AFL may have peaked over here though. Port Powers’ crowds were down to less than 19k for many games. The showdown used to be the hardest ticket to get but this year only 33k went to the game. AAMI has a capacity of 52000?

Is this the start of a long term decline or just a one off? At least the A-League has new “cashed up” teams joining the league and then there’s the ‘bounce’ they should get from the World Cup in 18 months time.

The other interesting thing over here is how the ‘redneck’ Football bashers now seem to be in the minority. As former local polly Chris Schact said “if we don’t embrace Global sports we’ll end up just being an AFL backwater”. Whatever your preferences there is no doubt that the ACL has done more to put Adelaide on the sporting map than the AFL ever could.

Koala Bear said  | November 4th 2008 @ 12:24pm | Report comment

There he goes again… :D I’m speechless.. I have no speech Mr Christian … Enough of you, you Grooky vagabond .. :)

This year has definitely been the hardest; several reasons why with the distractions of the China Olympics and NRL WC and Marn Grook false centenary celebrations; with recession talk that may soon be imminent.. However, I have noticed that, (although I have not made any real study into this) the fact that the home teams have lost more often at home than on the road is to my mind the major factor of the drop in attendances .. But my gut feeling is as Dave has pointed out that, the tide is finally turning on this season; it still may end up below last season’s figures.. However, I take comfort when MC writes a negative article; just after a good round of HAL figures ..

I like to think he is my barometer; when he writes negatively; things in Football terms are starting to rise, and when he does not write then you know the position is bad .. Ho hum… Off to the CRSL for the cup .. tally ho Football lover, Football will win in the end.. with the federal government to pour more and more taxpayers dollars into the FFA coffers… good on ya Kev2018…. :D

~~~~~~~~~
KB

jimbo said  | November 4th 2008 @ 12:31pm | Report comment

Omen tip for today’s Melb Cup for the ACL game tomorrow night - Red Lord.

Hope AU have more chance of winning.

Millster said  | November 4th 2008 @ 4:44pm | Report comment

Zero cheers says it all in terms of this article.

Norm said  | November 4th 2008 @ 5:47pm | Report comment

Michael C took up your challenge Millster & gave himself a cheer.

Michael C said  | November 4th 2008 @ 7:49pm | Report comment

Millster -

just thought I’d put some numbers to it………..critical analysis is bereft if unquantified.

Towser -

the ‘worst case’ scenario using the methodology was -236K, and the mid case was -186K.

Just in general guys - - it’s more about ‘expectations’. And - - I reckon Oikee was about the only one to really pick up on the purpose of all this. The potential expansion plans for several codes may well be getting slight delays - - because, even if Australia copes better with the GFC than most others, if the HAL is suffering in this manner so soon, then, how much worse will it all get before it gets better?

Lazza -
and Adelaide United are such a prime example - - that the ACL is making clear that people are making a ‘choice’ re. the football attendance………i.e. if they go to the ACL, then they quite likely won’t be going to the HAL. How much HAL soccer impacts AFL in Adelaide, who really knows - - but, good on Ade Utd for making themselves ‘hot’ by NOT switching out of Hindmarsh.

btw - showdown 1 in rnd 3, the Crows home match drew over 45K, and showdown 2 for 2008, a Power home match drew just under 32K - back in Rnd 16,…….where a few players such as Chad Cornes were playing that week ONLY because it was a ’showdown’ and then went straight off to surgery paddocks, as Power had about 4 weeks earlier already pulled the pin on the season.

btw -
I was off today, Cup day and all, so, I thunked I’d best leave a couple of threads so anyone who wanted could have a go at me any time during the day. ;-)

Michael C said  | November 4th 2008 @ 7:58pm | Report comment

btw -

Newcastle Jets - - are interesting, because, from Rnd 10 onwards back in V2, had an increase in crowds of 57%. From about 7300 to just over 11,440. This was a fabulous increase,………….., and - - whilst probably fanciful to suggest that it may be replicated from here on this season - - - the great thing in Newie is that their present reduced crowd figure for V4 is 11,588……………which, is up on that V2 figure. So, whilst down 6% on V3 - - - NJs are still a glowing success story.

I was going to try to insert this paragraph in the original article, but, it was just getting too long. The main thing I wanted to do was at least get an estimated range upon which to base expectation. The GFC means that fans of most sports are watching intently, nervous about the ‘code (phoney or otherwise) wars’

Joe FC said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:35pm | Report comment

-”so anyone who wanted could have a go at me any time during the day” - still wrestling with the victim syndrome Michael C?

Victer said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:49pm | Report comment

This forum shouldn’t be about cross code fighting. Michael I have read some intelligent posts of yours and I don’t mind you defending AFL but this is a crossing the line a tad. Most sane football(soccer) supporters realise we have our work cut out for us in going trully mainstream in this country. However, your posts lately have become more and more bigoted. It’s actually turning in to an unhealthy obsession. How many times can one keep bringing out the same issue?

Westy said  | November 4th 2008 @ 8:58pm | Report comment

I think it is important to also be aware that the 8 team by three rounds is becoming a little monotonous. There is only so many times Mariers v Pheonix grabs you……Remember the two teams of real concern are Sydney and the Roar….I have thought about this and honestly believe that unlike Melbourne Victory 30000/35000 Sydney fc are a good 18000 /20000 no more and in as emi or grand final could fill the SFS. Sydney in the long term needs a second team aiming for another 10000/15000 crowd target. Sydney FC as presently constituted will never be a Melbourne Victory
The Roar has had the biggest drop in crowds. I seriously wonder if this has got to do with their basic inability to win at home. Their home results are terrible.
It may well be that the A league needs new blood to reinvigorate variety . The Gold Coast will be a good fit although I still have doubts about Townsville. No one should have any doubt about the Gong. Illawarra or the South Coast will be a powerful and well supported competitior.Not so sure about the second Melbourne team at the moment.

jimbo said  | November 4th 2008 @ 10:31pm | Report comment

The NJ’s problem’s with marquee players continues and sadly Edmundo Zura has terminated his contract and stay in Newcastle to return home to his family for personal reasons.

keeper11 said  | November 4th 2008 @ 10:35pm | Report comment

..and the point of this article???

Do i smell something emanating from the exclusive club that is the backrooms of the ‘footy’ establishment club and their media masters ???

Maybe I missed them…but how come I haven’t seen any of the following aricles that present an alternate view?

- are the socceroos now arguably the biggest national football team drawcard in the country?
especially compared to the anemic turnouts to the much over-hyped Kangaroos..who can’t fill a stdium for love or money…
..
-In light of the above…should the league team still deserve ..umm 20x the media coverage and support of our true national and more popular team ..the socceroos?

- The NRL in its so-called centenary year celebrations ..crowds down 2.5%….7% in sydney..
Only average about 2000 more than A-league despite ..100year history and …oh 50x more media support
Please discuss….

and..

- Can rugby league sellout ANY game these days despite saturation media support?? i.e. state of O, test matches, semis, grand final….umm nope…..

Oh..did I hear something about vested media interests……

paul said  | November 5th 2008 @ 12:44am | Report comment

SFC got 18,000. Anybody who bought a paper last week got a buy one get one free voucher. That is the reason I went. Will never go again though.

paul said  | November 5th 2008 @ 12:46am | Report comment

Comparing NRL averages to aleague is apples and oranges. There are 8 games a week compared to 4, take out melb victory and the average is quite poor indeed.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 8:12am | Report comment

Paul - that’s the next stat I wanted to illustrate, the unhealthy reliance upon MVFC. It’s assumed, but, just to quantify it.

JoeFC - - mate, victim, hardly, ’twas meant in jest dear sir.

Keeper11 - - the point of this article? Well, seemingly some folk are over defensive and getting a little too code vs code about it. I made no cross code comments in the article. There have been several articles previously about the crowd slump - - but, thus far, no one had extrapolated forwards. I thought that was a worthwhile exercise. Obviously some folk aren’t that curious.

btw - the NRL attendances of Sydney clubs vs non Sydney is also very much worthy of review.

Westy -

is that part of the FFA expansion gamble? How much can they write off as an already tired format - - - and press ahead. Or, is the HAL about a 2nd or 3rd tier competition in the household budget stakes such that - presently anyway, it feels financial stresses first. (or, soon after the basketball).

True Tah said  | November 5th 2008 @ 8:31am | Report comment

keeper11,

NRL final drew over 80k, that is impressive in any code for a final anywhere. The HAL final drew 36K, I know it was two out of town sides, but they are still within a 3 hour drive from Sydney, but when the HAL can draw 80k to its final, then maybe your argument might have some legs.

Comparing HAL crowds with NRL is ridiculous, NRL has too many sides in Sydney as it is, and Sydney FC are not getting 25K plus crowds every week.

The RL World Cup might be a joke to you, but so far it has averaged over 15K per game. In any event, I have no doubts the next Socceroo game will get its turn in the sun with the next WCQ coming up shortly, the Qatar game got a fair amount of coverage/

Clutch Cable said  | November 5th 2008 @ 8:44am | Report comment

I’m thinking of writing an article about Australian Rules Football crowds outside of Australia; 130 years and they’ve remained remarkably consistent…at zero.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 9:14am | Report comment

Clutch Cable - that would be a useful exercise. (not!)

Although, your initial assertion is quite wrong - - there have been crowds at Aust Football exhibition matches overseas. But, please, go ahead and do so. And the point would be?

Victer -

I’ve put before the argument that if the HAL crowds are benchmarked internationally and even just vs the NRL - - then, everything is pretty rosey. I’ve cautioned against viewing the AFL as any form of benchmark. I think that’s unhealthy. I do believe some soccer folk have got ahead of themselves a tad. And, too, perhaps some of the ’smell the fear’ rhetoric on both sides is unwarranted by the actuality. After all, very few ’sports’ in Australia operate in a vacuum with a perfectly linear upward growth profile across the board.

The interesting phenomena is that because of the sporting mix of Australia, it isn’t a given that strong socceroos equals strong HAL.

The main reason I put this article out, was that in the national press and article was recently published that effectively mirrored the round X of V3 vs round X of V4 comparative figures that I’ve published here on theRoar. Perhaps, just perhaps, people in ‘high’ places do monitor our activity?? So - - I couldn’t really just do ‘more of the same’, so, at this point, make a statistical prediction and then I’ll shut up about it.

Deal???

Millster said  | November 5th 2008 @ 9:21am | Report comment

Westy and I are as one on the issue of expansion. I have my doubts about Townsville, and one year further on while I think Victoria needs more clubs I am not so sure about the Melbourne Hearts idea in direct competition to Victory.

For mine, I’d have the FFA go to 10 teams with Gold Coast and South Coast/Illawarra as two very strong, obvious entrants. And I’d have them work hard on the situations in Perth and Wellington which need real strengthening because there is no points adding clubs if others are looking like dropping away (and that’s not to mention the loss of geographic footprint that would occur if those two clubs aren’t sustainable)

Millster said  | November 5th 2008 @ 9:46am | Report comment

On the broader point, while it is a common theme from MC and maybe was not worth repeating in this article yet again, I do think there is some value in what is happening to the HAL.

Years 1 to 3 were undoubtedly a good start (or, to please some, re-start). There was the excitement of a new comp, a better handling of the media coverage, and of course the ‘riding the wave’ of the Socceroos exploits at WC2006.

We now see the league ‘taking a breath’. And we have rightfully observed that some analogous leagues (eg J-League, MLS) have done the same in their 4th or 5th seasons and then resumed growth. Others - most notably the Chinese League - have seen the retreat in attendances after the first handful of seasons become entrenched, and sadly have not recovered onto a growth curve despite the latent interest in the game and the decent standard of their league.

I guess what I’m saying is that if V4 crowd figures rattle the FFA cage a bit, shock a few people that might have been becoming a touch complacent out of their taking football and HAL growth for granted, and really give us a ‘next level’ of focus then it may just be a good thing. No-one can assume that the growth will resume unless we plan and work for it.

Where I do agree wtih MC is that we should not benchamrk against other Aussie sports which have completely different characteristics. If we get to the point where we have a decently supported domestic league that is competitive in Asia, that spits out the odd star player into the bigger clubs around the world and also into the Socceroo machine, and that offers a good product (both live and on TV) to the fans here - with one vital ingredient being having the right infrastructure in place - then thats cool with me. As I’ve written many times before, if we can aim in the mid-term (~3yrs) to have average normal-season HAL attendances of 15K with no club dropping below 10K per match, in a 10 or 12 club competition, then we will have done pretty well for ourselves and would be the envy of many other ’second tier’ leagues in the world.

Koala Bear said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:10am | Report comment

I’m thinking of writing an article about Australian Rules Football crowds outside of Australia; 130 years and they’ve remained remarkably consistent…at zero.

Clutch Cable,
I have already done that research and it has conclusively matched yours.. Yes, it’s hard to believe. Although you are wrong on one point, it has been longer than 130 years in fact as Roy Masters has stated consistently it is really 149 years.. Not that there hasn’t been any gallant attempts to spread the game to England back in 1870 with the Melbourne rules introduced over there, but still yes you guess it, crowds remain ZERO ….. good point… :D

~~~~~~~~
KB

Towser said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:14am | Report comment

http://www.smh.com.au/news/sport/football/a-league/road-to-acl-riches-about-to-get-even-more-congested/2008/11/04/1225560841369.html

Millster

Arent you setting your own football benchmarks by expecting certain average & bottom line figures in a set time frame?
There is only one benchmark the standard of football presented on the park as I stated above regarding the Roar.
This will be determined by the AFC & its requirements not the FFA as I discussed with you on another opinion piece.
So whilst we can compare with the MLS & the J-League at the same stage of development this is flawed in one major aspect. Neither had a higher organisation pushing them to professionalise their Leagues. See SMH article again(above) & quote:-

“What’s clear is that the A-League will have to get better, smarter and leaner in everything it does. Ultimately, that’s a good thing. In the meantime, we should savour Adelaide’s achievement. It may be a while before we taste such success again.”

Remember this quote everything the FFA does regarding the A-League is connected to it.

Millster said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:16am | Report comment

Good point Towser and we are all the better for it.

Happy blogging guys; I’m going across to the news desks to follow the results out of the USA. Yes sadly, I am as much a politics junkies as a football junkie and the US election is the “once in 4 year” world cup in that respect :-)

True Tah said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:18am | Report comment

Millster..you’re not alone there.

The Link said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:19am | Report comment

keeper11 - and the point of your post? You’ve done pretty well to turn an article written by an AFL fan about A-League crowds into a tirade against rugby league, pretty sad really.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:30am | Report comment

Towser -

interesting article. It will be a challenge - - - but, then, one challenge is testing a ‘champion team’ against a ‘team of champions’.

btw -
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22760901-5001023,00.html?from=public_rss

is a reminder that if soccer folk are going to try to stand atop a building and bare their butt to other sports during the good times - - (just 3 years in), then be ready to take hits back.

FFA head of commercial operations, John O’Sullivan, insisted the figures showed cricket was no longer the only show in town in summer.

He warned that soccer’s crowds would continue to increase and the game was on cricket’s tail. “Our numbers don’t lie,” he said.

Towser said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:31am | Report comment

True Tah

I’ve got about 5 different news sources at the bottom of my screen. But nothings really happening yet as far as results go.

Towser said  | November 5th 2008 @ 10:39am | Report comment

Michael C

THe old saying “people in glass houses shouldnt throw stones” applies to us all.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 11:08am | Report comment

Towser -

I guess that’s part of the issue though - - people are only in ‘glass houses’ if they are ‘transparent’ to the public. As TT has been following up on, the FFA and member clubs aren’t overtly transparent,…………their ‘glass house’ is heavily tinted - - - but, seemingly a legal tint!!!

with respect to throwing stones……………..is that only permitted on a ‘pitch’? or a ‘field’? (see Urbanonic on : http://www.theroar.com.au/2008/11/04/wallabies-vs-kangaroos-in-the-spirit-of-afl-and-gaa-ir-matches/)

Towser said  | November 5th 2008 @ 11:15am | Report comment

http://www.wiseoldsayings.com/wosdirectory.htm

Michael C

The site above should provide you with old sayings for a lifetime.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 11:26am | Report comment

Towser

brilliant:

Fear the Greeks bearing gifts. - Virgil (70-19 BC) “I fear the Greeks, even when bringing gifts.”

oikee said  | November 5th 2008 @ 11:49am | Report comment

Not too worried about comparisians to rugby league, i know the english league teams crowds have increased this year, next year might be a different story but they have 2 new teams coming in so i expect better crowd figure. :) If you need to compare Keeper 11 , try to do it with the union stats, they are alot bigger overseas. Baraka Obarma has won the ellection.
Hope he is a league fan.

Clutch Cable said  | November 5th 2008 @ 1:33pm | Report comment

“Baraka Obarma has won the ellection.
Hope he is a league fan.”

According to his article, an Obama win is actually a good sign for football (soccer) in America.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/the_big_picture/2008/10/would-obamas-el.html

Clutch Cable said  | November 5th 2008 @ 1:34pm | Report comment

“Baraka Obarma has won the ellection.
Hope he is a league fan.”

According to this article, an Obama win is actually a good sign for football (soccer) in America.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/the_big_picture/2008/10/would-obamas-el.html

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 1:45pm | Report comment

Clutch Cable -

funny the attempted stereotypes associated -

where as the center of the country is full of people who are the enemies of soccer and Obama — white, 50-and-over guys who listen to talk radio and only care about football or basketball.

golly, they only have over 50s in those states???

perhaps the best friend of soccer are 1 child ‘families’ who haven’t observed for themselves the natural ‘rough’ play that children partake in. Molly coddled kids are the greatest ally of soccer.

True Tah said  | November 5th 2008 @ 1:47pm | Report comment

I always thought Basketball was Obama’s game.

Im sure plenty of fans of NFL/NBA/NHL and MLB would have voted for Obama too, and given that hes virtually won already, they must have.

Koala Bear said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:11pm | Report comment

According to this article, an Obama win is actually a good sign for football (soccer) in America.

The Football family continues to grow .. Another 300 million people playing, talking, watching, FIFA Football .. Amazing no doubt this will mean more government spending on football across the world that the Bush regime neglected and failed to do… I hope that sometime soon Rud2018 will be meeting Obama to get his support…

“I fear the Greeks, even when bringing gifts.”
GC17… MC, many folk on the Gold Coast fear the same thing… :D A bit like Danish pastry without the filling…

~~~~~~~~
KB

Clutch Cable said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:25pm | Report comment

Yeah to be honest I’m not exactly sure how an Obama victory has much to do with Major League Soccer, but thought it was an interesting and pretty topical read.

Towser said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:25pm | Report comment

Gracious speech by Mckain.
Barack Obama never thought I’d see it in my lifetime.
A seismic shift.

On that football article . Theres some good ideas for Football here to follow particularly in using the internet to connect to young people. Would have been useful for the Roar to use this sort of input via the internet regarding its name & what fans want when it first started up.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:39pm | Report comment

Towser -

GC17 allowed for the internet for ‘potential’ fans to put forward suggestions etc - - as it turned out, with no clear winner, they defered it………..and therefore, at least listened to the less than coherant voice of the fans!!! Actually, AFL.com.au has been great in recent years in inviting input on rule propositions and the like.

Interesting the 4 yearly voting rights……….trying to give franchise ’subscribers’ a greater stakeholding. Given my AFL club North Melb finally reverted back to the traditional member based club with members having voting rights and all normal rights to form a ticket and run for the board. In the Australian context - - I’d think even that pseudo member base privately owned franchise model is worth considering…….especially in AFL cities.

btw - connecting via the internet - - - for whom is it the ’sporting sole domain’? The AFL for example gets a lot of pressure from those overseas for whom AFL.com.au is their only or most up to date interface. In the Australian demographic, you certainly couldn’t make any of those Obama/soccer assertions………….and, again, I reckon there’s overlap.

oikee said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:57pm | Report comment

No big deal, i thought soccer was already global game. All i know is by the time soccer takes over america we will all be that bored of hearing its name we will be craving for our smaller sports hey M.C. Cant say we are going to be dominated by soccer, we already are.

The world is being over run by the game now. Anyone looking forward to winter yet.? And thats another thing thats going to spoil the game and i have said this also, once the yanks become involved its all over. :)

P.S while i am here i will give the mass gathering a plug, 2 games tonite starts at 5 pm fox3. :) Fiji Scots, Ireland,Samoa.

True Tah said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:58pm | Report comment

KB,

it doesnt mean anything of the sort, it means that Americans have voted to go with a dynamic new leader and made history in the process, and a change in American policy. In my opinion, the impact on the sports Americans are interest is not really too much of an issue here.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 2:59pm | Report comment

Oikee -

no plugs with tips!!!!

oikee said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:17pm | Report comment

Word has it M.C that one of the Johns boys has been working with those lucky irish lads and has givin away a few of his beauty tips, not with looks but with the ball. He has showed them how to kick the ball porperly, (unlike those round ball players, his skills would be greatly cherished) so there could be a upset on the cards. We will see, We willl see, “oh” to be sure, to be sure. Say that last line with a irish accent.
So this will be interesting and i think they only need to win by 7 to make the semi. The scots on the other hand, well, they dont seem to have any luck what so ever , i am surgesting that they might get a hammering by a side mind you that thinks it can knock off the big one. OZ …… Anyhow, :) thats like saying the socceroos will win the world cup. :) :) :) :)

Koala Bear said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:21pm | Report comment

:D True Tah, where is your sense of humor..?. :D Although I do believe that there in no filling in American Danish pastry.. ;)

btw I was thinking the other day and this is only a point of interest .. What happened to that RU official who received some $1-$3m dollars (one month of work ?) for organising the RU world cup in Australia that everyone got upset about .. I have forgotten the details .. Can you throw some light on the out come on that story ..

~~~~~~~~
KB

oikee said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:23pm | Report comment

Shame i cant spell porperly. :)

oikee said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:28pm | Report comment

K.B they love losing money R.U 1-3 mill is pocket money. Start looking when you hear they have lost 500 million.

True Tah said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:30pm | Report comment

KB,

are you talking about Colin Love - its not the rugby union, it was the rugby league, although you have overstated the figure.

However in light of your post, I will do my investigation, this is the first I have heard of a rugby union official getting over $1m to organise the 2003 RWC, but it could well be the case.

Millster said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:42pm | Report comment

Oikee - nice of you to suggest some things for people to do before they see Adelaide United V Osaka on Fox 1 at 9pm. And I do have a tip for that one… 1-1 (which is better for the Japs than for us due to away goals rule).

I don’t think Obama would have ever heard of League. I also question whether he’ll be good for football as, in his first term, he’ll still want to be one of the ‘common man’ and seen at as many games of NFL and baseball as possible to win a few hearts in the red-voting central and southern states.

To MC and your ‘molly-coddled kids’ post - what part was meant to be analysis and what part stereotye? I couldn’t work that out for myself…

Finally on the election in the US I am torn. On the one hand the end of Bush is a good thing even for a red-leaning person like myself. On the other we have truly seen the rise of a ‘pop-star’ president - a guy has made it to the white house riding almost totally on symbolism, good rhetoric and a fair dose of reactionary vote, and with an almost total lack of the normal qualifications one might expect for such a position. Thank god he has the smart old dude Biden (who I respect a lot) to hold his hand.

Forgetmenot said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:47pm | Report comment

Reading through the comments … there are alot of soccer fans stating that the article is written out of fear, and that it is a blatant attempt to put the sport down.
Maybe you like to see the world through rose coloured glasses, but the simple reality is, is that the A-league crowds have dropped.
Perhaps someone could do an analysis of the last 5 rounds of the AFL season to see how crowd growth/decline compares.
The drop in the soccer crowds can partially be attributed to the global financial crisis, as well as other issues (such as more soccer internationals, rugby league world cup, international rules series, Wallabies, US election etc).

Also a point for the website administrators, in Australia it is colour not color. The website dictionary tries to correct this.

Michael C said  | November 5th 2008 @ 3:56pm | Report comment

Millster -

ah, twas trading stereotype for stereotype,

just as one could spend all day trading wise old sayings for wise old sayings………..actually, I think I got caught up in that game once upon a time on the SMH flog!!!!!