A-League crowds will be down 133k this season

Roar Pro

By Michael C, 4 Nov 2008 The Crowd is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: Adelaide United, Brisbane, football, Sydney, Wellington Phoenix

Related coverage

There have been articles referring to the A-League crowd slump. I’m sticking with known facts to make some HAL attendance projections for the second half of V4. This is designed to illustrate just what the significance of the crowd decline so far might extrapolate to by the seasons end.

And just what hope there is within the last eleven rounds for a venue-by-venue rise in crowds over the run home.

So far this season, crowds are down more than 84,000 on V3, and are sitting in between V2 and V1. This, of course, does not take into account Adelaide United’s ACL crowds, which have been very good at home and a nice boost for their coffers.

We know that V1 to V2 saw an increase in overall attendances, almost exclusively due to the MVFC moving to TD. They drew an extra 160,000 people through the gate compared to V1.

In V3, the Wellington Phoenix accounted for 83,000 of the overall 140,000 increase.

The question for V4 was always, “Where will the improvement come from?”

Anyone with common sense could see that improvement hadn’t been as ‘even’ across the board as it would be preferred. So far, this has been answered in the double negative across the board. Not just that no-one is so far offering improvement, but that all clubs are suffering from a home crowd decline.

Using the ‘record high’ of V3 as the benchmark, all clubs are down on crowd averages on the completion of round 10 V4 versus the completion of round 10 V3.

In the past, some teams have experienced a late season ‘surge’, or at least increase, in attendances in the run home to the finals. So a forecast allowing for the best exhibited increase in crowds for each venue from round 10 onwards looks like this:

Rnd 10: this is the current ‘status’, in all cases a decline of round 10 V4 vs round 10 V3.
Best: Exhibited Rise from round 10 onwards in any previous season for each venue. NJ’s figure is skewed positively based on V2 increase from 7,300 in round 10 to 11,400 at season’s end. However, this is the rate of increase applied for ‘best case’. How likely is it?
Need percentage” the percentage increase on round 10 average to achieve a season average to match last year’s full season average crowd for each venue (nb. this is independent of the number of games).
Forecast Total Variance: using the best case percentage change from round 10 onwards, the sum total variation in crowd aggregates. The bracketed correction is for fairness, given 10 games vs 11 last year. However, the same correction is not used where there is only 10 games this year vs 11 games last year. So, for the overall impact, ignore the bracketed corrected figure. This clearly illustrates that Brisbane, Sydney and Wellington have a lot of work to do.

Rnd 10 Best Need% NeedAvg Forecast Total Var
QLD -16% 19% 68% 20,224 -52,526 (-35,575)
Well -37% -1% 107.5% 15,282 -36,047(inc 1 more game)
SFC -7% 7% 30% 18,521 -32,692 (-16,319)
NJs -6% 57% 27.4% 14,766 +3832 (+17,009)
CCM -2% 30% 61.6% 15,407 -5070 (inc 1 extra game)
MVFC -13% -2% 17% 27,906 -1173 (inc 1 extra game)
PG -0.7% 3% 8.11% 7892 -9333 (-1737)
AdeU -19% 9% 38.7% 13,602 -139 (+11,186)

MVFC for example, has 11 Telstra Dome games this year. The -1173 drop forecast is even with an extra game compared to last year. So the real terms (corrected) drop would be more around 25,000, give or take.

This gives you an idea of the Wellington scenario.

The overall figures (not using ‘corrected’), indicate, that even with best case (exhibited) crowd increases at each venue – that aggregate crowds will be down about 133,000 at season end. A drop of about 11% and just ahead of the V2 figure.

For reference, the mid case would be a drop of 187,000 and the worst case a drop of 232,000.

Enjoy sports? Enjoy a bargain? All Sports Online has your favourite sporting brands at up to 70% off. Online only, premium quality sporting goods and merchandise at discounted prices. Get a deal now.

The Crowd Says (707) | Page 1 of Comments

jimbo said | November 4th 2008 @ 8:20am | Report comment

MC,
won’t be long before the A-League goes broke and AFL takes over the rest of Australia. ’

Reply
True Tah said | November 4th 2008 @ 8:24am | Report comment

MC,

I think Sydney FC’s crowds will increase following last weekends game, and Adelaide shoudl increase on the back of a successful ACL campaign (it already is a success). MV are doing pretty well do.

The big problems are Perth, Wellington and Queensland Roar, the Roar should be dominating, but there are talks about going to Ballymore, why would they do that?

Reply
Dave said | November 4th 2008 @ 8:39am | Report comment

l look forward to the same analysis when the AFL crowds drop next season.

Unusual timing when 2 teams had there best crowds of the season in the last round SFC and AU.
Taking into account AUs ACL exploits more people have watched them this season at home than any of their years of existance…3 x capacity crowds with many tens of thousands unable to go to these games due to the small capacity of Hindmarsh. They just had their best HAL crowd of the season over 13,000.
MV was always going to have a levelling off season or two from their incredible growth early on…from 0 to 16,000 to 27,000. Their crowds are averaging just under 24,000 and with both SFC and AU to come plus the run into the finals (hopefully) their ave will probably be up on last season by the end…dont forget 55,000 also paid to see MV during the group stage of the ACL so add those figures in and their total attendances are probably up for this year.
QR are just dreadful at home and l’m suprised that anyone would go and watch them play at Suncorp…the fact that they have won only a handful of games at home in 3 1/3 seasons and still ave 12,000-13,000 is remarkable.
NJ and CCM will both ave around the same as last season as the run into the finals comes up with possibly NJ more likely to suffer a drop as they struggle on the field.
PG are not far off par and with signs of onfield performance improving will expect them to actually show a slight increase on last year.
SFC are a problem child but last week had their best attendance for a CCM match during the season over 18,000 a figure that almost matched the Swans finals crowd a month or two ago…maybe signs of improvement?
WP are in a slump both on and off the field…they struggle to score and definetly are not great to watch so in sense understandable their crowds have dropped. The weather has also been terrible for several games and that doesn’t help.

MC
You have raised the HAL attendances regularly since the start of the season…l just hope you keep mentioning them as crowds improve with the lead in to the finals. You didnt mention about the improvement in pay tv ratings this year and in the past 2 weeks MV’s games have both had on or over 100,000 viewers. Again comparable to some AFL and NRL games.
Keep up the good work but dont drop off when things turn around.

Reply
Dave said | November 4th 2008 @ 8:42am | Report comment

TT

QR are moving admin to Ballymore. At this stage no movement of games there but it must be expensive to hire Suncorp. l dont know what the crowd break even figure is but they would need more than 13,000 ave me thinks.
Is Ballymore close to the city centre and does it have good access, public transport? What is its capacity?

Reply
True Tah said | November 4th 2008 @ 8:46am | Report comment

Dave

Im not sure about Ballymore being close to the city, but the capacity used to be about 24K, the Qld Govt is contributing $4.2m to upgrade it, I understand it will be the training base for both the Roar and the Reds.

Suncorp is probably closer to public transport, with plenty of pubs close by, I think its about a 10 minute walk from Brisbane CBD.

Reply
Slippery Jim said | November 4th 2008 @ 8:54am | Report comment

Shouldn’t this article be under the “AFL” propaganda tab?

Couldn’t you have just put it in one line Michael C – ‘attendances are down in the A-League – good times for football haters everywhere’…I just can’t see the point of this article except to have a cheap gloat, it doesn’t say anything relevant at all.

Reply
Millster said | November 4th 2008 @ 9:02am | Report comment

Can someone please do an analysis of the growth in people who bought a ticket to football of any kind (Socceroos, ACL, A-League, exhibition matches) over the last 5 years, and perhaps also taking 1998 as a ’10-year-ago snapsot’ point. I think we will be most happy at the growth in support for our code even if it is not all directed only at our domestic comp.

Reply
oikee said | November 4th 2008 @ 9:18am | Report comment

It does say something to me slippery jim, times are tough and i dont think rugby league will be expanding in a hurry, not after last years lousy crowds, think we had a couple of games where we only had 6 thousand turn up. Bottom teams yes, but still its not a good look when you think that AFL had a increase of everything across the board. And things wont improve for league but soccer has the best chance to improve and considering hard times is doing ok.

That move to ballymore would obviously be to save money, they are taking a pounding in brisbane with the roar gate not acheiving as planned, so a move to a smaller ground would be good for them at the momment. Once the crowds pick up then you just move back, no big deal. Also dont forget the roar can get 40 thousand when they are winning towards the end of the season. Brisbane mentality is they love winners, they would get behind the queensland reds if they were winning.

Losing is something we are not accustomed too.

Reply
Dave said | November 4th 2008 @ 9:32am | Report comment

Speaking of HAL clubs good to see some excitement building in SA for the upcoming ACL final as from the FFA website:

“Adelaide celebs get behind The Reds
Tuesday, 4 November 2008

Nova’s Jules, Fitzy & Lisa. A number of South Australia’s celebrities are getting behind Adelaide United as the club takes on Japan’s Gamba Osaka in the AFC Champions League Final.

They may be in a battle for ratings but popular radio breakfast presenters from Triple M (Kym, Ali & Dzelde), Nova 919 (Fitzy, Jules & Lisa) and SAFM (Amber, Rabbit & Cosi) are all cheering on The Reds as the club attempts to become the unprecedented champions of Asian club football.

Adelaide’s commercial television networks’ nightly news services have also thrown their support behind the team, Channel 7 and Channel 9’s new presenters proudly leading the charge.

The Reds’ achievements in reaching the prestigious Final have ‘united’ the whole of South Australia and put Adelaide on the world football map, and supporters are expected to turn out in their droves at major LIVE sites across Adelaide to watch the two legs of the Final.

And while Adelaide is being taken in by the hype of Reds fever, football fans from around Australia are also pledging their support for the club as Coach Aurelio Vidmar and the boys represent the country in front of the estimated millions that will be following the game on television, radio and online.

It all kicks off in Osaka on Wednesday 5 November before the return match at Hindmarsh Stadium on November 12. Kick-Off for the 1st leg in Japan is at 8.30pm (ACDT).

Adelaide United FC would like to thank everyone who has proudly been supporting the club throughout the AFC Champions League journey and the Hyundai A-League, and also wants to convey its sincere gratitude to fans of other Hyundai A-League clubs that have wished the team luck throughout the competition.”

Although the title seems a an oxymoron if ever l’ve seen one (Adelaide and celebrity)

Reply
Towser said | November 4th 2008 @ 10:04am | Report comment

. I predicted a major drop in crowds this year ages ago. In fact 133K is conservative. I predict more in fact. More like 200-250k in line historically with the MLS & J-League.
Dont even need to super analyse the figures .Just need to go to Roar matches at home & watch whats presented on the park. Is it better than season 3-No or season 1 maybe. Probably on a par with season 2.
Most Roar fans except the rose coloured glasses brigade feel the same. Hence the crowd drop till football reaches a standard that for my team the Roar deserves the average of 17,000 last year.
The last home game was abysmal & deja vu resulting in an outporing of emotion by Roar fans & an article in the Courier Mail by their leading sports columnist expressing the fans discontent.
So Dave theres your explanation for the Roars crowds this season . Pure & simply the display at home over the 4 seasons.
I would say in one way or another in differing ways but for the same basic reason-football standard this would apply to other clubs.
The one shining light is the quality of football shown by AU in the ACL. That is a more keeping possession sharp passing technical game. As I said in a previous post this is the same Adelaide United who beat the Roar at Suncorp the other week & played to the opposition. In other words the aerial long ball heading ping pong garbage was paramount. As I may have said before the ultra critical Frenchman next to me called it “Park Football” he wasn’t coming back anytime soon.. Fans leaving the stadium including me couldn’t disagree. Hence the forthcoming newspaper article.
As more teams participate in the ACL the influence of Asian clubs on our A-League will increase. Will CCM & NUJ play kick & rush football next year in the ACL. Not likely if they wish to progress past the first round & pocket some more cash.

The only thing in this article that I would acknowledge is the mention of the Wellington Phoenix.
I’m starting to get a deja -vu NZ Knights feel about them.
Not good.

Dave

Regarding Ballymore. Its close to the city. In particular its close to me. 10 minutes drive away. But Suncorp is only 3 minutes more so personally neither are an issue.
Some fans have complained that it is less accessible to them than Suncorp & I get their point. Particularly those who come by train from the outer suburbs. They will have to change to go to Ballymore rather than just walk to the ground from the station as per Suncorp. But I’m sure Shuttle buses etc could be arranged.
Lets face it Rugby fans used it for years & they seemed to have no problem getting there & filling it on occassions.
As for the ground itself ,the training surface is better than Richlands(origonal Roar base) according to Craig Moore when the Socceroos trained there before the Qatar match. There is talk of a major upgrade to Ballymore so that its all seated(depending on funds available) so if this happens I see the Roar playing there as its capacity(25,000) is more suited to their crowds except for one or twothat could be moved to Suncorp anyway.
Personally either way I dont care both grounds suit me. I’m more concerned that the Roar improve their showing at home than where they play to be honest.

Reply