By Etienne
December 3rd 2008 @ 2:04am
Loading ...Wallabies to meet All Blacks or Springboks in RWC 2011
New Zealand just can’t seem to avoid France at the Rugby World Cup. This time, though, with their meeting in Pool A not being a playoff match, the All Blacks will destroy them and progress to a Quarterfinal against either England or Argentina.
Or perhaps Scotland.
They should also easily dispose of any of those teams, which sets them up for a mouth watering Semi-Final against South Africa.
Playing in the Southern Hemisphere, on grounds they regularly visit in the Super 14 and Tri-Nations, I expect South Africa will be too strong for Wales and take Pool D. This will set them up for a Quarter-Final against Ireland, probably, who they should also beat.
Australia should take Pool C for a face off against Wales in the Quarters.
Pool B is at this point the most unpredictable in my opinion.
Can Argentina build on their current fourth place IRB ranking or was 2007 just a special year for them with a special group of players?
How much can England rebuild from their current mess to become a contender again? And can Scotland possibly sneak a top finish in Pool B?
If Argentina regress from their current lofty position and England continue on their current path, who knows?
Whoever takes it (let’s be honest, probably England) will most probably have to face France in the Quarters.
If you look at how far the Northern Hemisphere is behind the Southern Hemisphere, I expect the RWC 2011 will be won by one of the Tri Nations teams. Again.
It’s probably Australia to face the winner of a South Africa-New Zealand Semi-Final in the Final.
Wales look to be the best of the Northern Hemisphere bunch, capable of a Tri Nations scalp, but not of three. They’re also not the best travellers, historically.
England have too much ground to make up, and France seem to be incapable of back-to-back quality performances at Rugby World Cups.
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(19)
sambobly said | December 3rd 2008 @ 6:41am | Report comment
It is silly to predict what is going to happen in a world cup that is 3 years away! I don’t like this talk of “easy pools” at this stage as we just don’t know what is going to happen. Maybe Wales will collapse, Scotland will become good again and England will find some forwards. Predictions at this stage are not based on fact and are nothing more than wild guesses in the dark.
Wallythefly said | December 3rd 2008 @ 9:01am | Report comment
Yeah but it doesn’t mean you still can’t look at it. They’ll be some great games and a NZ-SA semi would be quite something.
ohtani's jacket said | December 3rd 2008 @ 12:24pm | Report comment
Yeah, but everyone expected an all Southern Hemisphere semi-final in the last World Cup. Don’t be surprised if four years from now there’s some shocking refereeing performances in the quarters.
Sam Taulelei said | December 3rd 2008 @ 3:58pm | Report comment
I’m going to play devils advocate and say that NZ finishes second in their pool and goes to the same side of the draw with Australia – now that would put the fox amongst the chickens.
James Mortimer said | December 3rd 2008 @ 9:31pm | Report comment
I’m going to go out on a limb, and predict that the All Blacks will do what they did in this Grand Slam, and concede no tries in the 2011 World Cup.
I’m also going to go out on a limb, and predict that the All Blacks will win the next three cups.
Dublin Dave said | December 4th 2008 @ 1:53am | Report comment
OJ
There WAS an “all Southern Hemisphere” semi-final in the last World Cup. SA v Argentina.
ohtani's jacket said | December 4th 2008 @ 11:38am | Report comment
You know what I mean….
My prediction is the All Blacks win the World Cup playing the same low risk, high percentage style we saw on tour and that won England and South Africa the last two World Cups.
Harry said | December 4th 2008 @ 12:12pm | Report comment
Next 3 RWC’s James for the Kiwi’s? Certainly they are due some luck at a RWC. Playing at home means they will once again start favourites in 2011, baring an unlikely big slide in form. Beyond that who knows as economics and demographics that we can’t predict will come into play. For instance, if ever the Seppo’s get serious about professional rugby, then given the enourmous resource of American football players that could transfer to rugby, then they could very quickly have a formidable side – probably including buying the cream of NZ side. If you think that sounds ridiculous, look what happened in the America’s Cup, the other area of once undisputed NZ world leadership in sport.
As to your first prediction, I think the key for an NZ world cup victory is for NZ to have a really narrow (maybe even lucky) win against another contender at a crucial stage. Certainly at the last 3 RWC’s you could argue they were underdone (probably not 03) Until they came up to a hard match, where they faltered. Say for instance they were stretched in their pool game – indeed were beaten – by France, I reckon that would do more good than a series of easy wins. You won’t get a repeat of 87 these days.
B Johnson said | December 4th 2008 @ 6:23pm | Report comment
World Cups are all about pressure, something the All Blacks are distinctly uncomfortable with.
South Africa is a premier suddendeath team, winning both Finals it ever entered, one at home and one in Europe. These boys know what it takes, the AB’s (in their hearts) would possibly see it as a disaster to come up against them in a semi.
Nick (KIA) said | December 5th 2008 @ 8:01am | Report comment
James, that’s out of your tree not out on a limb. Have you looked into what odds you’d get on NZ winning the next 3 cups? A sly $100 would probably see you able to retire…
pothale said | December 8th 2008 @ 3:43am | Report comment
NZ to win next three WCs???!!! James must have been smoking old rugby balls again – it has that effect.
Etienne believes NZ will destroy France and top their table. On current form, certainly. In WC 2011 mode, less so. i agree that NZ potentially losing in pool stage might actually strengthen them. They had too easy a ride in the last WC. That won’t hapen this time. And next time, Dan Carter will know what a drop goal is and how and when to take one.
SA and Wales in Group Two? On current form, SA should come out on top. Wales are not going to get any better and could possibly regress in my view over next 3 years. Williams S, Williams M, Powell ain’t no spring chickens and won’t keep their performance levels until 2011. Hook has lost his mojo and needs to get it back rapidly cos relying primarily on the Bronzed Adonis aka Henson to win them games is just too worrying. Fiji might surprise them again.
Ireland and Australia is interesting. Italy gave Aus a scare on the recent tour, and depending on when they play them, could give them a first-up going over. Ireland are more used to playing them and despite Ialy’s grunt up front, should beat them as well. In the key match-up, Ireland could take Australia, but it’ll be a close call, and Aus could sneak it as well. However, I’ll plum for Ireland to have enough bite and guile in their arsenal to top pool.
As Etienne says, Pool D will be the most interesting and open. On current seedings, Argentina and England should come through – in that order. Scotland are staring into the abyss at the moment – club level is disintegrating around them. And yet, and yet. Scotland always seem to pull a performance out of the bag, and they love doing it against England, So these three might lose one game against each other, which will take it down to scores, scorelines and results against other teams. I’ll go for England and Argentina at a sheer guess.
That’ll give quarters of:
NZ vs Argentina
SA vs Aus
Ireland vs Wales
France vs England
Semis possibly of
NZ vs SA
Irl vs France
With the wonderful possibility of
New Zealand vs France in the final – now that would be a cracker.
sambobly said | December 8th 2008 @ 7:15am | Report comment
Pothale, you have got to be joking with Ireland beating Australia. Surely Aus are favourites for that match by far. If that game was played today, Australia would beat Ireland by a fair amount of points. Remember, this game would be played in NZ and the Wallabies have much more experience playing there than Ireland do.
pothale said | December 8th 2008 @ 10:27am | Report comment
Sambobly – why would I joke? It’s far too serious for that!
Besides that, look at the history.
Last time Irl/Aus met in the WC was 2003, – Aus beat Ireland by one point. (And the same scoreline in a previous WC if I recall correctly.)
Ireland walloped them 21-6 in Dublin a couple of years ago (2006?); And then Aus just about took them in a game this year in June in Melbourne 18-12 or something. I wouldn’t call that last result by a fair amount of points – would you?
Ireland are regularly under-rated as a side. I’ll be the first to admit they don’t do themselves any favours in helping to dispel that notion either. They were awful in last WC, and arrived over-prepared and insufficiently focussed for the task at hand.
However, if Australia had played them after Ireland’s match against Argentina a few weeks ago, I would have backed Ireland to win – no doubt on that one.
So yeah, Aus may be number 3 in seedings, but Aus don’t have the same bogey mentality for Ireland as ABs do – they’ve beaten them enough times to know they can do it again.
I agree that Aus are favourites – that’s exactly where Ireland like to be – underdogs and dismissed out of hand. That’s when they’re at the most effective and dangerous. So I’m gonna stick with my prediction. Feel free to rant and rave at me.
Benny R said | December 8th 2008 @ 11:10am | Report comment
When it comes to World Cup games against Australia – the “luck of the Irish” is non-existent. Ireland are 0 – 3. I can’t see RWC 2011 being any different!
OldManEmu said | December 8th 2008 @ 11:30am | Report comment
The only safe predictions to make about RWC 2001 are that (1) the All Blacks will be raging hot favourites, (2) the New Zealand public will have enormous expectations of victory (3) the All Blacks themselves will be shitting besser blocks under the weight of public and self imposed pressure……..oh, and (4) Speights will finally be confirmed as worst beer in the World.
OldManEmu said | December 8th 2008 @ 11:35am | Report comment
That should have been 2011 of course
Jerry said | December 8th 2008 @ 11:56am | Report comment
OME – number 4 will only happen if they stop brewing Lion Brown.
Andy said | December 8th 2008 @ 12:25pm | Report comment
A few that might not be as ’safe’
- pothale will not show up to admit he was wrong when the wallabies thrash ireland
- ben lucas will be australia’s half back
- david pocock will be the ‘new’ Richie McCaw
- Giteau will be captain, but under pressure from cooper/beale/barnes/o’connor to hold his spot
- england will fire their coach and claim to be ‘rebuilding’
- tickets will be like rocking horse poo
pothale said | December 9th 2008 @ 6:31am | Report comment
Andy, andy
Oh you of little faith. I’ll happily turn up here to be pilloried when Australia ‘thrash’ Ireland in WC 2011. (Thrash in my book means by 20 points or more by the way. not sure what yours is.)
My prediction is just that – a prediction. If by any chance Ireland manage to beat Australia, I hope I can expect the same response from yourself for public pillorying. And phrases like
‘the ref was from the NH, what do you expect? or puke-making ones like ‘the luck of the Irish’ which news editors in UK and Australia seem to love and think is highly original; or crap-out phrases like ‘it was only our second team, cos it’s a tactical move by Deans’ will not be accepted.
The other safe prediction will be that the ABs won’t be able to do a spear tackle (=’bit of a tumble’ to those living in NZ) on Brian O’Driscoll again. He won’t be playing – hopefully.