Wallabies avoid their bogey team in RWC 2011
Roar Pro
By Nick, 3 Dec 2008 The Crowd is a Roar Pro
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Since the Rugby World Cup began, England have been Australia’s bogey team. They’ve knocked us out on no less than three separate occasions (1995, 2003 and again in 2007), as if anyone needs reminding.
Assuming the 2011 World Cup finals progression is the same as 2007 (so, Pool A plays Pool B and Pool C plays Pool D), then we should avoid England altogether in 2011. Unless, of course, both countries meet in the final.
Here are the teams that matter:
Pool A
New Zealand
France
Samoa
Pool B
Argentina
England
Scotland
Pool C
Australia
Ireland
Italy
Pool D
South Africa
Wales
Fiji
My theory is Australia will meet New Zealand in the final for the following reasons:
1) Both teams were eliminated in the 2007 quarter finals – it’s a karma thing.
2) Deans vs Henry. Did the NZRU make the right choice?
3) This draw. New Zealand and Australia are on opposite sides of the competition.
4) New Zealand won the Rugby League World Cup in Australia with Wayne Bennett. If we reverse that scenario it becomes Australia won the Rugby Union World Cup in New Zealand with Robbie Deans. It is fate. Believe it.
Here is my prediction:
Group Stages
* New Zealand will win Pool A, France runners up.
* England will win Pool B, Argentina runners up. (Doesn’t matter, neither will make the semi-finals)
* Australia will win Pool C, Ireland runners up.
* South Africa will win Pool D, Wales runners up.
Quarter Finals
* New Zealand vs Argentina, New Zealand win.
* France vs England, France win.
* Australia vs Wales, Australia win.
* South Africa vs Ireland, South Africa win.
Semi-Finals
* New Zealand vs France, New Zealand win.
* Australia vs South Africa, Australia win.
Final
New Zealand vs Australia.
New Zealand will be overwhelming favourites. Will they choke like the Kangaroos?
Only time will tell.
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Nick (KIA) said | December 3rd 2008 @ 8:13am | Report comment
Well it’s all a bit of supreme navel gazing to try and predict results in three years, but the way the draw has been published means that you’ve got your semis wrong. NZ would meet SA, Aus would meet France. This is potentially relevant, as we (NZ) have a tradition of being beaten by France in knockout comps, so think ABs will be relatively pleased to get them in the pool stages.
ohtani's jacket said | December 3rd 2008 @ 10:20am | Report comment
Is twice really a tradition?
I mean Australia have knocked us out twice as well and South Africa have beaten us twice, albeit one of the losses was the third place playoff.
Nick (KIA) said | December 3rd 2008 @ 11:20am | Report comment
Fair enough OJ.
But the French defeats seem somehow more gaulling (pun intended). Perhaps it is because we ‘couldn’t lose’ those games, whereas defeat by Aus/SA was more conceivable, and therefore slightly more tolerable looking back, based on them beating us on other occasions.
I wasn’t sure whether this was perception or reality, so I asked Professor Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Blacks_versus_France_at_rugby_union)
In the last 10 years Abs vs France, 14 tests, 10 wins to ABs (71%), a draw and 3 losses, two of which buggered our world cups. By my count, we’ve only beaten them once at World Cups, 1987 final.
Compared to our other WC vanquishers Aus/SA:
SA last 10 years, 26 tests, 18 wins to ABs (69%). Of the 8 wins to SA, only win was ’99 playoff for 3rd (one other meeting 2003 world cup quarter final won by ABs).
I struggled a bit to find these numbers for Aus, but guess would be similar.
I guess they are small numbers, and probably ‘random noise’ rather than any true trends here, but perhaps that’s why I (and others) feel the french are a bit of a bogey world cup team for the ABs – they beat us there but haven’t managed it often elsewhere (since 1994/5), whereas the Bokke and Aus win most years vs ABs (less often that the ABs beat them)…
Nick (KIA) said | December 3rd 2008 @ 11:21am | Report comment
* edit *
SA last 10 years, 26 tests, 18 wins to ABs (69%). Of the 8 wins to SA, only WORLD CUP win was ‘99 playoff for 3rd (one other meeting 2003 world cup quarter final won by ABs).
True Tah said | December 3rd 2008 @ 11:34am | Report comment
Nick
I think you’re being a bit optimisitic picking Australia to win every game they play, and its a bit early to pick teams.
If Wales can build a team based around Powell, Shane Williams, Lee Byrne, Gareth Cooper together, then they must be rated a chance to beat the Boks and if they play us, Australia as well.
Plus dont discount the Island nations, they will have massive support in NZ, especially if Samoa and Tonga play games in Auckland, plus Im sure many of those in the Islands will travel to NZ to see their boys…if the Island nations are given similar opportunities to gel as teams before the tournament and prepare, similar to 2007, then there will be upsets (not to mention a few bruised bodies afterwards).
And it seems that like the French, the Islanders reserve their best for world cups as well.
ohtani's jacket said | December 3rd 2008 @ 12:16pm | Report comment
Nick,
The numbers are against Australia are a bit scary — 27 Tests, 15 wins to the All Blacks (55.6%)
We actually beat France in the 2003 3rd and 4th playoff, so the ledger is 2-2, but I can understand third place playoffs being nothing to get excited about.
Nick (KIA) said | December 3rd 2008 @ 12:24pm | Report comment
That is a frighteningly low percentage – speaks to Aus strength in the early 2000s.
I think there might be something in this theory. We’re much more used to SA/Aus beating us, so dipping out to them in WC is a disaster, but we’re (a bit) used to it, whereas being beaten (again) by the French in a sudden death game is a complete and unmitigated disaster leading to talkback radio meltdown, because we slap them about in all the other games.
ohtani's jacket said | December 3rd 2008 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
It breaks down like this:
1998-2002 — 11 Tests, NZ won 3 with only a 40% record at home and a horrific 16.7% away record
2003-2008 — 16 Tests, NZ won 12 with a 100% record at home and 50% away.
Nick (KIA) said | December 3rd 2008 @ 12:38pm | Report comment
Yes – that 1998-2002 period was a golden one for the Wallers. Let’s hope they don’t manage that again any time soon.
Greg Russell said | December 3rd 2008 @ 1:40pm | Report comment
Re Australia avoiding England, the relevant portion of the knockout draw is:
Quarter-final 1: Pool B winner v Pool A runner-up
Quarter-final 2: Pool C winner v Pool D runner-up
Semi-final 1: Quarter-final 1 winner v Quarter-final 2 winner
So if we assume that Australia will be Pool C winner and France will be Pool A runner-up (behind NZ), then the greater unknown of pool B determines the situation: if England is Pool B winner then they are potential SF opponents for Australia, otherwise they are on the other side of the draw and Argentina fits into the above scheme.
Whatever one thinks about an Argentina vs England match played today, there is the reality that three years is a lot of water to flow under the bridge and Argentina has only rarely beaten England.