Last year, I went to Auckland to be with my eldest daughter for the RWC. (Alas, she has become an All Black fan!) The Sunday of the quarter finals, I woke up late and was duly told that England had beaten the Wallabies. I sat there glumly as she beamed at the television, as the All Blacks were in the lead. But when France went ahead, she and lady next door begun to scream. When the match ended, a thick silence descended on Remuera/Ellerslie: not a lawn mower in the yard, not a hammer on a fence, not a car in the street, not even the trill of a pukeko. It was so eerie.

Quarter-final 1: Pool B winner v Pool A runner-up
Quarter-final 2: Pool C winner v Pool D runner-up
Semi-final 1: Quarter-final 1 winner v Quarter-final 2 winner

So if we assume that Australia will be Pool C winner and France will be Pool A runner-up (behind NZ), then the greater unknown of pool B determines the situation: if England is Pool B winner then they are potential SF opponents for Australia, otherwise they are on the other side of the draw and Argentina fits into the above scheme.

Whatever one thinks about an Argentina vs England match played today, there is the reality that three years is a lot of water to flow under the bridge and Argentina has only rarely beaten England.

1998-2002 — 11 Tests, NZ won 3 with only a 40% record at home and a horrific 16.7% away record

2003-2008 — 16 Tests, NZ won 12 with a 100% record at home and 50% away.

I think there might be something in this theory. We’re much more used to SA/Aus beating us, so dipping out to them in WC is a disaster, but we’re (a bit) used to it, whereas being beaten (again) by the French in a sudden death game is a complete and unmitigated disaster leading to talkback radio meltdown, because we slap them about in all the other games.

The numbers are against Australia are a bit scary — 27 Tests, 15 wins to the All Blacks (55.6%)

We actually beat France in the 2003 3rd and 4th playoff, so the ledger is 2-2, but I can understand third place playoffs being nothing to get excited about.

I think you’re being a bit optimisitic picking Australia to win every game they play, and its a bit early to pick teams.

If Wales can build a team based around Powell, Shane Williams, Lee Byrne, Gareth Cooper together, then they must be rated a chance to beat the Boks and if they play us, Australia as well.

Plus dont discount the Island nations, they will have massive support in NZ, especially if Samoa and Tonga play games in Auckland, plus Im sure many of those in the Islands will travel to NZ to see their boys…if the Island nations are given similar opportunities to gel as teams before the tournament and prepare, similar to 2007, then there will be upsets (not to mention a few bruised bodies afterwards).

And it seems that like the French, the Islanders reserve their best for world cups as well.

SA last 10 years, 26 tests, 18 wins to ABs (69%). Of the 8 wins to SA, only WORLD CUP win was ‘99 playoff for 3rd (one other meeting 2003 world cup quarter final won by ABs).

But the French defeats seem somehow more gaulling (pun intended). Perhaps it is because we ‘couldn’t lose’ those games, whereas defeat by Aus/SA was more conceivable, and therefore slightly more tolerable looking back, based on them beating us on other occasions.

I wasn’t sure whether this was perception or reality, so I asked Professor Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Blacks_versus_France_at_rugby_union)

In the last 10 years Abs vs France, 14 tests, 10 wins to ABs (71%), a draw and 3 losses, two of which buggered our world cups. By my count, we’ve only beaten them once at World Cups, 1987 final.

Compared to our other WC vanquishers Aus/SA:

SA last 10 years, 26 tests, 18 wins to ABs (69%). Of the 8 wins to SA, only win was ’99 playoff for 3rd (one other meeting 2003 world cup quarter final won by ABs).

I struggled a bit to find these numbers for Aus, but guess would be similar.

I guess they are small numbers, and probably ‘random noise’ rather than any true trends here, but perhaps that’s why I (and others) feel the french are a bit of a bogey world cup team for the ABs – they beat us there but haven’t managed it often elsewhere (since 1994/5), whereas the Bokke and Aus win most years vs ABs (less often that the ABs beat them)…

I mean Australia have knocked us out twice as well and South Africa have beaten us twice, albeit one of the losses was the third place playoff.