Why South Africa won’t beat Australia
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By Benjamin Conkey, 3 Dec 2008 Benjamin Conkey is a Roar Pro
- Tagged:
- Australian Cricket, Bangladesh, Cricket, Murali, New Zealand, Proteas, Ricky Ponting, South Africa, Sri Lanka, West Indies
I feel a sense of déjà vu with the upcoming Australia-South Africa series. The Channel Nine commentators, noticeably aware of the possible downturn in ratings due to New Zealand’s dire performances, reassured viewers that the Kiwis were merely an entree to the main course of the Proteas. Haven’t we heard that before?
Yep, we have.
It was the same last time South Africa toured. The West Indies were thumped three-zip in the Frank-Worrell Trophy, leading to the promise of better things to come from the Cricket Boks.
Of course, it didn’t really eventuate. The best South Africa could manage was a draw in the First Test in Perth, eventually losing the series 2-0.
This time we’re told it will be different.
Sorry to be a kill-joy, but I’m not convinced. I don’t care how many matches South Africa have won over the last eight years, they can’t play against Australia in five-day cricket.
Even taking into account their apparent whizz-bang bowling line-up and the loss of Warne and McGrath from Australia’s arsenal, I can’t see them winning on Australian turf.
It’s true that Dale Steyn is the leading wicket taker this year and, yes, the Proteas do have several batsmen amongst the top runs scorers in world cricket.
These figures are, however, inflated due to South Africa playing no less than four Test matches against Bangladesh, a fact conveniently forgotten by Tony Greig and purposely exploited by Ricky Ponting – the master of putting the pressure on the opposition in pre-match talk.
The reason why South Africa have not beaten Australia in recent times is simple – none of the experienced batsmen have EVER scored consistent runs against Australia.
In fact, only two of the current Proteas (Kallis and Prince) have scored a century against an Australian side. It’s just not good enough for a team that’s been bridesmaid for close to a decade.
The middle order lacks an aggressive player. Amla, Prince and Kallis are all accumulators of runs and rarely dominate an innings, which suits Ponting’s control tactics.
It often feels like a South African innings never takes off once Smith is out. Even Boucher seems to have gone on the defensive in his batting approach.
If South Africa are any chance, so much depends on Dale Steyn. But I believe this over reliance will cost them because Australia will play it smart. They’ll play Steyn just like they play Sri Lanka’s spin wizard Murali, offering few chances while he’s bowling and milking runs from the other bowlers.
Australia’s aggressive approach to their cricket will win out once again.
South Africa’s batting weaknesses will be exposed against consistent bowling and the gap between the two sides will be revealed.
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Mick of Newie said | December 3rd 2008 @ 7:07am | Report comment
Ben, you may be right. But South Africa have never faced a weaker Australian side since their return from the wilderness.
Looking forward to it.
Brett McKay said | December 3rd 2008 @ 8:04am | Report comment
Ben, I certainly hope you’re right in your prediction, and I’m looking forward to the series regardless. I wasn’t aware South Africa played FOUR tests against Bangladesh, I knew they had played them but assumed it was a one-off or two test series.
Graeme Smith has be conspicuous by his silence so far, so I wonder if he’s finally learned his lesson?!?!
And you’re right about Tony Greig too, but then it wouldn’t be the first time he’s omitted mere details in the name of a good story….
elcapitan said | December 3rd 2008 @ 10:05am | Report comment
Come on now Ben. The Kiwis exposed areas of Australia, and they weren’t even a good side compared to the Saffas. I’m tipping a close series, and it will all depend on who wins the toss.
It won’t be a walk in the park for the aussies, and if they don’t get a specialist spinner, who can turn the ball greatly in Mel and Syd, it may turn ugly.
This series will make or break the team that goes to England for the Ashes next year.
Greg Russell said | December 3rd 2008 @ 1:13pm | Report comment
I agree with Ben that everything depends on Smith and Steyn.
The last time South Africa were here, both Jaques and Steyn made their ODI debuts at the TelstraDome. The Australian opener hit the pace sensation for 52 runs off 5 overs, and the latter was not seen again. This suggests a psychological frailty in Steyn that in particular Hayden and Ponting will attempt to exploit. He is a tremendously impressive bowler against modest batting (e.g. New Zealand) when the ball is swinging, but what is he like against strong batting when the ball doesn’t swing? (as it won’t in Melbourne and may not in Perth and Sydney).
The Australians will feel that Graeme Smith is a known quanitity, i.e., he will do some damage but they will be able to control it. However Smith played some very impressive innings in England this year, so it may be that he has grown. Still, visiting captains tend to become overburdened and mentally exhausted when touring Australia, so Smith has a very tough job to do.
I feel Ben makes an exceptionally important and insightful comment in writing “The middle order lacks an aggressive player. Amla, Prince and Kallis are all accumulators of runs and rarely dominate an innings”. One can add to this list Neil McKenzie, South Africa’s reborn opener. So really Smith and de Villiers are the key wickets. Kallis will always take a slow, selfish 100 over a 50 in the team cause – his batting statistics are so misleading they are almost fraudulent.
A difference between this and previous South African teams is that none of their bowlers bat well. In the past South Africa have always valued batting ability in their bowlers, e.g. Pollock, Boje, Klusener, Symcock. Whether by accident or design, that seems to have changed. Australia is a place where long tails really get exposed, e.g. New Zealand recently and England on almost any tour.
My feeling is that this South African side is a more genuine test side than they have toured with in the past, e.g. now they play 4 genuine bowlers. So they may be a little better than in the past, although Ben is correct that their lack of a match-turner batting between 1 and 6 will probably be a major problem. What will determine the result of this series is how far Australia have come back to the field. That is the question that this series will answer.
Greg Russell said | December 3rd 2008 @ 1:27pm | Report comment
One other thing: South Africa will go into the first test with a buildup on Australian soil of just a solitary 2-day match against Western Australia. Sound familiar? Last year India arrived about a week before the first test, played a severely rain-affected 3-day match against Victoria, and promptly got hammered in the first test. By the time they found their feet they were arguably a better team (on Australian soil) than Australia, but the series was already gone.
History says that to be competitive in Australia a team should arrive early and play plenty of tough cricket before the tests start. The Poms also found this out to their cost in 2006-7. It is mystifying that South Africa seem to be making the same error.
JohnB said | December 3rd 2008 @ 3:37pm | Report comment
Greg, seems to me the 2 key players in the series are Lee and Clark. If they’re at something like their best, the Australian attack looks good and can get through a solid batting lineup, even on a good wicket. If they’re not, as they weren’t in India, then suddenly the Australian bowling looks very thin, and the Sth Africans can grind out big (albeit possibly slow) scores. The Yarpies may not be dashers, but runs on the board still count, and they have enough bowling to win them games (given a bit of time). With all due respect to the Kiwis, I don’t think you can yet assess how well Lee or Clark are going.
Mick of Newie said | December 3rd 2008 @ 3:46pm | Report comment
I also see Australia’s pace bowlers as key. I am not sure how much form we can take from Johnson and Lee’s recent wickets. Look at Lee’s second innings wickets, caught and bowled, caught at point and running through a very poor tail. The SA middle order might not dictate the pace but they will make the bowlers get them out. Then we will see what form the Aust bowlers are in.
B Johnson said | December 3rd 2008 @ 4:18pm | Report comment
Not that it would make a difference but SA did ask for at least a 3 day game but it was denied.
dasilva said | December 3rd 2008 @ 7:16pm | Report comment
Steyn is a different bowler now then he was when he was demolish by England and australia back he was debut.
Also he is not the type of bowler where you play him off and then hammer all the other bowlers like what Australia done with Murali.
Steyn is the type of player who gets many wicket or be destroyed. Australia will target Steyn and try to hit him out of the attack.
It will be a very interesting battle.
The SA have the talent to beat Australia. After all their performances in the subcontinent and in England (where Steyn destroyed the Indian line up in INDIA) certainly indicates they have the capability to beat Australia. However can they overcome the mental barrier and overcome the metnal scars of playing Australia.
I’m excited to find out
My prediction is that South AFrica will overcome and beat Australia signalling the true end of Australian dynasty. No shame in dominating for 20 years.
Karthik Bangalore India said | December 21st 2008 @ 8:20pm | Report comment
So a thriller. South Africa did break the chokers tag, I assume. Glad they did this. Should go a long way to make a big difference to the south African cricket. Was following this game closely more than the dud games at home. What a way for test cricket to go. We are in for an exciting series from here on!!!.
Karthik.