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Before we answer the question, we need to establish whether he will turn to what rugby league followers now think of as the dark side. And the most likely answer to this is that when his Tigers contract runs out at the end of 2009, he will take up an offer to play rugby union. Probably in Japan.
The Sydney Morning Herald has an interesting story stating that if Marshall does play rugby union in Japan he could come back to rugby league. The mechanics behind this is that the Japanese Top League rugby season runs from September to February. This timetable would allow Marshall the chance to come back to the rugby league code if, for whatever reason, he wants to do this.
But, of course, the Super 14 season (by 2011, a Super 15 or up to 18, with a Japanese team as a likely starter) also begins in February.
My feeling is that if Marshall does make the jump in codes, he will want to carry on in rugby union and achieve his ambition to become an All Black. This is the same sort of ambition that Sonny Bill Williams (remember him?) has and, most importantly, Brad Thorn had.
Australians don’t generally understand the mystique that the All Blacks jersey has for New Zealanders. It is one of the most powerful emotions New Zealand males can have. Moreover, the All Blacks jersey marks a person out, identifies them as having achieved something wonderful, for the rest of their life.
You can see this in the business world, even in Australia.
Whenever there is talk, say, of David Kirk, he is invariably referred to as “the former All Blacks captain.” Is Michael Hawker, another former rugby player who has had a successful business career, invariably referred to as “the former Wallaby great?”
Hardly.
So if Marshall does make the jump, does he have the skills and the ticker to fulfill his ambition and become an All Black?
All this is hypothetical, of course, but right now you’d say this ambition can be realised. He has a background in rugby, which should be a help (but wasn’t much of a help for Mat Rogers).
He has the skill set and the ticker to make the transition to the rugby union code. He showed both the skills and the ticker in the Rugby League World Cup Final against the Kangaroos. It was when Marshall took on the line and exposed his battered shoulders to the ferocious intent of the Paul Gallens and the other big hitters that the Kiwis fractured the Kangaroos line and set up tries.
My guess is that his best position in rugby union would either at fullback or on the wing, as a Shane Williams type of runner coming into the line after some phases and bewildering the big forwards trying to block up the middle of the field.
I can’t see him being a successful union five-eights.
We’ve seen Rogers fail in this position and on Saturday, playing for Stade Francaise against the rampant Harlequins, we saw Mark Gasnier, admittedly coming on as a reserve, making an awful hash of the five-eights and then centres position.
Gasnier’s problem, and it is a problem that most rugby league players coming to rugby union face, is that his skill level in handling and passing was not up to the lack of space and time rugby union players have to confront when they get the ball.
Also, his kicking skills, based on quick, accurate readings of the situations in front of him, are non-existent.
When you contrast Gasnier, seemingly leaden-footed and leaden-minded (a bit like Fracnois Steyne in the Barbarians-Wallaby game), with Nick Evans masterminding the Harlequins around the field and putting them in the situation where they were able to snatch an unlikely victory, you realise the great difference between the two codes.
Great players in one code will not necessarily be great players in the other code.
In fact, what we have seen in Australia and New Zealand, and especially since the ELVs, is that the old adage that backs can make the switch from either code more easily than forwards no longer applies.
Lote Tuqiri has made a ‘successful’ switch, but in my opinion on impact around the field, he is behind Peter Hynes, Digby Ione and probably Lachlan Turner. Like George Gregan in his later years, Tuqiri’s main value to the side is pyschological.
He is a reassuring figure to the younger players who may be inspired just by his presence to lift their own game.
The two best switchers from league to union in these parts in recent years have been Brad Thorn, who has become the rock of the All Blacks pack, and Rocky Elsom, whose ferocious tackling and running and general aggro in his play was missed by the Wallabies, especially in the Bledisloe Test in Hong Kong and the Test against Wales.
If this analysis is correct, rugby clubs in Europe and Japan, the ARU and the NZRU might look more favorably on players like Frank Pritchard (my pick for a successful conversion to the other side) and other tough league forwards rather than to the backs like Marshall and, certainly, Gasnier.
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van der Merwe said | December 10th 2008 @ 6:38am | Report comment
No, no. I just don’t see this happening. In Rugby, the pivot must run straight not sideways. That would take a while to iron out. Then there is the tackling/defending issue, not to mention the passing thing. You basically have to entirely re-train them again. As for wing, when you think of Tuqiri or Sailor you don’t automatically think of pace. Would not training a sprinter be more worthwhile?
True Tah said | December 10th 2008 @ 6:40am | Report comment
Spiro,
if Benji Marshall is fair dinkum about wanting to pull on the black jersey, then he should not be going to Japan, the standard of rugby there is inferior – he would be best off playing either for a NZ Super 14 side or in the Guinness Premiership, these are tougher comps which will help him get used.
Having said that, look at some of the current ABs outside backs (Rokococo, Mulaina, Sivivatu, Gear) I would have these guys ahead of Benji at the moment at least.
If he wants the $$$ then he should go to Japan, it will be easier on the body for him.
The Link said | December 10th 2008 @ 8:24am | Report comment
I reckon Benji will do alright, but he should do it with a NZ S14 side. Japan or France means its more about the $$$.
Geez you’ve jumped on Gaz pretty quick Spiro, that was his 4-5th game? I wouldn’t jump to conclusions yet. To your extend your rationale however, put Nick Evans in an NRL game and he’d look just as lost.
Once again a revision of history when it comes to Matt Rogers, he made a successful switch, given he was a only really a solid RL winger, to be a consistent Wallaby and a standout at S14 level.
Elsom and Palu went from reserve grade RL to starting Waratahs in no time, so never played consistently at the higest level in RL.
I would count Jason Robinson as the most successful to make the switch.
elcapitan said | December 10th 2008 @ 9:41am | Report comment
The Link,
Big Call saying Jason Robinson the most sucessful switch. I’d have to say Brad Thorne. This guys didn’t do it once but twice and as a forward! The skill difference for his transformation is huge compared to an outside back.
On Benji, if he wants the All Black Jersey, then he should go into the Air NZ Cup teams and learn the ropes, before beign picked up by a Super 14 team. He needs the mindset and passion that Thorne provides.
Chris Ash, syd Aust said | December 10th 2008 @ 9:43am | Report comment
also elsom played for aust schoolboys so i wouldnt really call him a code switcher. like the link said he had a stint in RL reserve grade as the money would have been tempting after leaving school. I met him in Hong Kong at the bledisloe pre match and he’s a really nice guy! Come back to the Tah’s soon Rocky.
Joe said | December 10th 2008 @ 10:01am | Report comment
Why does nobody ever refer to Andrew Walker when talking about the most successful code switchers? He was great for the Brumbies and played some outstanding games for the Wallabies until he lost the plot. I’d take Walker in his prime over Rogers, Sailor or Tuquiri every time.
Central North said | December 10th 2008 @ 10:08am | Report comment
Amen Link & Chris..
Can we please put the old chestnut that states Rocky Elsom switched from League to Union? The guy captains Nudgee first XV, represents Australia at U16 and Schoolboy level in Union – but somehow he’s a League guy because he spent two years playing Jersey Flegg for the Dogs?? Please.
sydChris said | December 10th 2008 @ 10:11am | Report comment
Central north, read my post again i said i wouldn’t call elsom a code switcher…. gessshh Napoleon
sledgeross said | December 10th 2008 @ 10:12am | Report comment
Benji would have to play full back, but I think he isnt robust enough. He is quite simply a league player, but has won a GF and WC, so might be looking for a pay cheque. He does have an ok kicking game though Spiro, he impressed me last season with how big a boot he has.
I do think you are over stating his involvement in the RLWC final though. It was the forwards who got them home, all Benji did the whole game was score an opportunistic try (like he usually does) and hide on the wing ( I read he only made 8 tackles the whole game). Having said that, he is an impact player whose occasional touches have that game turning class about them (like his try), he can make things happen.
sydChris said | December 10th 2008 @ 10:14am | Report comment
oops, ok im a idiot. sorry central north. i need coffee. (anyway to delete comments?)