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Brett Emerton might have blown out his knee and given Pim Verbeek a hell of a headache, but Australia got the best kind of present on Tuesday when China declared it would not submit a bid for the 2018 and
2022 World Cups.
I wrote about China some weeks ago for The Roar and said it presented the biggest challenge yet to Australia’s hopes of being the anointed bidder from the Asian Football Confederation.
Japan, Qatar and, surprisingly, Indonesia are still in the hunt but China’s withdrawal has firmed Australia as race favourite in the AFC.
Japan, though not to be taken lightly, is dogged by the fact it
co-hosted the event as recently as 2002. Qatar’s climate and lack of carnival atmosphere will play against it, while Indonesia really is only there making up the numbers and undoubtedly playing a political card.
Korea, looking to do a spoiler on its 2002 co-hostee Japan, has also lodged a late bid with FIFA, though
Australia would still have the wood on it for historical reasons.
But it’s outside the AFC that Australia looks to be facing opponents far more difficult to overcome.
The threat of the European armada is the most obvious obstacle, including the Russians, which I favour as the real dark horse.
The United States has also played its hand and given the great success of USA 94 and its significant political clout within FIFA itself it must be regarded as a serious contender. Mexico and Egypt are the other two bidders from outside the AFC and UEFA, but stand no chance.
So out of the twelve confirmed bidders, arguably the half-dozen favourites are, in order of likelihood of success, England, Russia, United States, Australia, Spain/Portugal and Japan.
Australia is an outside chance at best but at least it’s in the mix. Had China expressed its interest formally, we would have been goners.
This is now where Frank Lowy’s vast experience as a football diplomat comes into play. And it’s Football Federation Australia’s X-factor.
Few men have risen to prominence so quickly in international football circles as Lowy, who seems to be permanently surgically attached to either Mohamed bin Hammam’s or Sepp Blatter’s side at photo ops from Sydney to Shanghai.
Few men, too, have achieved so much in so little time. The establishment of the A-League. World Cup qualification. Entry into the AFC. A seat on FIFA’s World Cup Organising Committee. The securing of the Rudd Government’s $45.6 million donation to the 2018/2022 war chest.
You have to credit him for his drive and chutzpah.
My personal view has long been that Australia cannot win 2018 but stands a very realistic chance of getting the 2022 tournament.
Unfortunately for Lowy, though, for all his billions, he cannot buy time.
In 2022 he will be in his 91st year on this earth. He is by all accounts in good health. But mortality is a fact of life, whether you’re a billionaire or a pauper.
As we saw with Johnny Warren, who never got to see Australia qualify for the World Cup in 2005, there aren’t always happy endings in football.
The sad reality is, and I hope it’s not the case, Lowy’s gift to the nation is one he might never see himself.
But that makes his mission, foolish to some, quixotic to others, even the more nobler.
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