Is this the Super 14 year of the South African teams?
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By Spiro Zavos, 2 Mar 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
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The two outstanding sides in the 2009 Super 14 tournament after the third round are the Sharks and the Bulls. Not far behind them are the Waratahs. It’s early days yet but I expect these three sides, especially the Sharks and Bulls, to make very strong runs for the finals.
Both the Waratahs and the Sharks have won a match in New Zealand, always a difficult thing to do. The Waratahs match against the Hurricanes involved an Australian referee (Stu Dickinson). The Sharks got their victory at Hamilton over the weekend against the Chiefs with a New Zealand referee (Bryce Lawrence). So if this was a diving competition you’d have to say that their degree of difficulty was higher than that of the Waratahs. It was rainy, too, and these conditions usually suit New Zealand teams.
It’s been mentioned by some readers of The Roar that the local referees have tended to be more generous with their impartiality to the visitors. Certainly Ian Foster, the coach of the Chiefs, was probably correct when he said the video referee at Hamilton gave several decisions on tries against the Chiefs that seemed to be somewhat harsh on the home side.
What the Sharks have going for them is a side that has a terrific defensive system. Their statistics on defence, apparently, are the best in the tournament. They are resilient and courageous under pressure. The Chiefs spent minutes at the end of the match hammering away near the Sharks tryline. Admittedly it was one-off barging stuff that was not clever. But the Sharks line never looked like being broken.
During the rest of the match the Sharks had the ability that good South African sides tend to have of converting any break-out or bit of luck into points. There is tremendous pace in the forwards. The lineout and scrum are strong. And the five Springboks in the backline are all high quality players.
The Sharks also have a great draw. On Saturday they play the Blues at Eden Park after the home side has had to fly all the way back to Auckland from South Africa following their splendid victory against the Stormers, which also involved a tremendous late-game defensive effort.
The Bulls play their fourth match in South Africa and their fourth on the veldt against the Stormers. If they play with the hard-shouldered, smart aggression and skill they have in their previous matches, especially the demolition of the Blues in the second round at Pretoria, they will be well-placed for their overseas matches.
The Bulls have a mighty pack, even without Victor Matfield who has been injured, with the monster Bakkies Botha playing at his very best. They’ve got the best halfback in the world in Fourie du Preez; a strong kicking five-eight in Morne Steyn (South African teams generally play well with a kicking five-eights); the best number 8 in world rugby Pierre Spies; arguably the best winger in Bryan Habana.
More importantly, they are playing very smart rugby. The comparison with the heady, not-much kicking and lot a running game of the Bull and the headless-chooks play of, say, the Chiefs (another team loaded with talent) is very stark.
The Zavos rule is that the only teams that win a tournament as gruelling as the Super 14 are those teams whose rugby nous is matched by talent from the number 15 jersey through to the number 1 jersey.
Another Zavos rule that comes into play every four years is that the play of teams from a country that is hosting a tour by the British and Irish Lions invariably improves for that touring year.
We saw how good Australian rugby at all levels was in 2001 when the Lions toured here. And the same in 2005 when the Lions toured New Zealand.
The 2009 Lions tour of South Africa seems, at this stage in the Super 14 tournament, to be having a similar uplifting and energising effect.
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LeftArmSpinner said | March 2nd 2009 @ 7:20am | Report comment
The Zavos rules are interesting.
Defence, as they say, is a reflection of the attitude of the team. Both the Tahs and the Sharks have it this year.
The Bulls, on the other hand, have let in 20 and 26 against the Reds and Blues respectively. But they can score points, again, 33 and 59 respectively.
The Sharks have missed the 3 extra bonus points on offer against the Stormers, Lions and Chiefs, three of the five lowest ranked teams in the comp. This could be very costly, particularly the Lions at home.
It is too early to make much of results so far other than to conclude that it is going to be a very close competition for all except the Chiefs, Highlanders and Cheetahs. The Lions, Stormers, Reds and Crusaders need to win again very soon.
The Aussie teams are doing well so far, with the Tahs amongst the heavyweights and the Force and Brumbies on the fringe. The Reds are improving and have their tough trip to SA out of the way. This week against the Tahs will be a make or break game for them. To be three wins behind the leaders after round 4 will be the end of the 2009 campaign for the Reds.
Harry said | March 2nd 2009 @ 8:52am | Report comment
Sharks were very lucky to get the 4 points on the weekend but an away win in Waikato, with a Kiwi ref and those annoying chainsaws, is a great result for any team.
Leftie, as a Reds supporter I would contend they have no hope for a semi position and on a 5 day turnaround should be easy meat for the Tahs – who are travelling very well after setting their season up with that great firstup win in Wellington.
The Reds do have an opportunity to make a real mark on the competition by taking on and beating some of the SA/NZ teams at home – of the stronger sides, they play the Sharks, Chiefs and the Canes at Suncorp, as well as the Lions. They should be able to win 3 out of those 4 games, and aim up to win a game in the south Island of NZ for the first time this century.
Sam Taulelei said | March 2nd 2009 @ 9:34am | Report comment
It’s all cyclical but at this stage the Sharks, Bulls and Waratahs are the pacemakers. Compare the form of all the early pacemakers in previous years and apart from the Crusaders, most teams that make the playoffs make a mid season or late season run home.
The Sharks are now on their road trip and results tend to even things up for teams from the Republic although traditionally the Durban boys travel better than their countrymen and the Bulls have yet to travel. The Tahs have a great run of games at home or within Australia before they have to travel.
The Zavos rules doesn’t factor in travel or local derbies in how to determine a winner. Only teams that win their majority of games on the road and local derby games will win the tournament.
There have been more NZ derbies in the early rounds this year so they’re cancelling each other out at this stage but the Blues have secured two valuable wins on the road and now look forward to the next nine weeks at home and in NZ which gives them a royal chance of building momentum especially with their top players returning from parental leave and injury.
I thought the Sharks were magnificent in the first 60 minutes with some lovely touches from Francois Steyn. Then the Chiefs woke up and began to play, they were unlucky not to have a chance at securing a draw with their late try disallowed for a arm in touch (betcha that player will just put the ball down in future and not dive so close to the sideline) and their scrum was much better than against the Tahs.
True Tah said | March 2nd 2009 @ 9:41am | Report comment
Sam
agree the Blues are my pick of the NZ teams, I reckon they will be there come the finals, they have won two out of three on the road, and will be hard to beat at home with a full strength side. Also, when the Blues are winning, they are the only NZ side who really seem to draw decent crowds. That Ranger winger looks like a real gem as well.
Agree re: Steyn as well, he really delivered a polished performance, wont find too many better kicks than the one he laid on for Pieterson’s first try. I hope he stays at 12 for the rest of the season, I have a feeling that when he nails down a positon we will see how good he really is.
My picks for the finals are Waratahs, Blues, Sharks and either Bulls or Force. The Saders were playing catchup against the Canes, who are a bit disappointing.
PastHisBest said | March 2nd 2009 @ 10:25am | Report comment
Hmmm, not sure about the ‘Tah’s, they’ve flattered to deceive before. I reserve judgement. My picks for the finalists are the Sharks and Bulls. Roughies are the Blues and Force. Yes, that’s right, the Force. You heard it hear first.
James B said | March 2nd 2009 @ 12:46pm | Report comment
We’ll just have to see how the jarpie sides do on the road. It’s far too early to make a full assessment, though it appears the Bulls & sharks are certainly quality teams. Of the NZ teams I’d put my money on Blues & Canes close to top 4, with Crusaders in re-building mode, though they will win more than they will lose. Tahs are almost certain the make the top 4, with Brumbies contenders and Reds as the dark horses. so there is your 6-7 teams in contention as far as I’m concerned. Either way, its going to be a hell of a scrap for those 4 places. For a jarpie team to win they need a home semi & final otherwise they tend to struggle with the travel.
Hammer said | March 2nd 2009 @ 1:45pm | Report comment
Those writing the obituaries for the NZ teams will need to wait a wee while yet – the Hurricanes v Crusaders game was the stand out fixture of the weekend and a gutsy effort from the Blues giving them 2 vital wins on the road … all 3 will be in the hunt come the end of the year … the SA teams flatter to deceive at home – I thought the Sharks were ordinary on Saturday away from the republic and the Cheetahs are just a woeful team … any half decent team should have put on 50 points against them yesterday which says a hell of a lot more about Qld than anything else … saying that the Bulls and Sharks will be in the mix … the Stormers are the SA’s answer to the Chiefs …
as for the Aussie outfits NSW are the only genuine chances for a top 4 finish mainly due to a very favourable draw – but this weekend will be interesting – not because the Reds are going to be much of an opposition but because they’ll be playing for the first time without their Sydney ref security blanket … there’s a lot of infringing going on in the NSW game and it may do them well to get reffed by an outsider in an easy fixture before they make the trip across the Indian ocean … the Force result really is a pointer to all those tipping the Brumbies – too lightweight, the Force are an average team and to stuff the brumbies like they did says a lot about there chances …
Greg Russell said | March 2nd 2009 @ 2:16pm | Report comment
The Zavos rules are interesting. But surely the most important rule of all is that a side must have a great no. 10 in order to win the S14. After all, the competition has basically only been won by four no. 10s: Andrew Mehrtens (4) and Dan Carter (3) of the Crusaders, Carlos Spencer (3) of the Blues, and Stephen Larkham (2) of the Brumbies.
Of course Mehrtens and Spencer both had their weaknesses at international level, but the faster and more open nature of Super rugby made their mercurial attacking skills more valuable and their weaknesses less important in the forum of Super 14 rugby, in which they can be regarded as truly great players.
The single exception to the rule about having a great 10 is 2007, when the Bulls won with the bland Derick Hougaard at the helm. However this was a very unusual year. For one thing, the Sharks probably should have won the final, and they had Butch James at 10 – with time he has become a genuinely good 10, much improved on his uncouth and blunt early years. Secondly, it is likely that either the Blues or Crusaders would have won in 2007 but for the misguided intervention of Graham Henry in withdrawing the All Blacks from the competition.
Which brings me to the point that playing in South Africa is such a massive factor in this competition: if the final is in South Africa it is hard to imagine that the South African team could lose (as in the 2007 semis), while if the final is not in South Africa then it is hard to imagine that a South African team could win (witness a large number of finals over the course of the competition). So this will be an overriding “rule” in determining who wins this competition.
Lastly, if one looks at all the S14 franchises this year, which has a great 10? Does any have a great 10? When I consider these questions and the history of the S14, I have to join just about everyone in concluding that this is the most open S14 in history.
Bravo Perpignan for removing Dan Carter and giving us this situation!
Sam Taulelei said | March 2nd 2009 @ 3:05pm | Report comment
Greg
Good point about Hougaard and the Bulls in 2007, I with other people thought the Sharks were going to take the title that year and while the Bulls were deserving winners of the final, the Sharks were the exceptional team of the tournament.
Victories on the road in the playoffs and final is extremely rare and only the Crusaders, Highlanders and Natal have done it to date so you can almost bet the house on a home team win. The only other common denominator with those aforementioned players, they were exceptional number 10′s playing for exceptional teams.
sledgeandhammer said | March 2nd 2009 @ 7:32pm | Report comment
If the ‘Tahs are one of the form teams in the Super 14, God help the Super 14.