Waratahs by four in the rugby State of Origin

 
James Mortimer Roar Pro

By James Mortimer, 6 Mar 2009 James Mortimer is a Roar Pro

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It’s a classic Australian derby between the two original rugby states of Australia – Queensland and New South Wales – with the tune being sung this year for an introduction of a rugby league style State Of Origin.

At the beginning of Super Rugby, Queensland were untouchable in this local contest.

The Reds, despite never winning the title, were a rugby dynasty. John Eales, Tim Horan, this was a team that began Super Rugby by posting two fifty point wins against Canterbury and Auckland and came first in both 1996 and in 1999.

Up until 2004, with the exception of a draw, this was a completely one sided rivalry, with the Reds having won their first eight clashes.

But, despite the promise and the roster full of potential front line Wallabies, this is a team still repairing itself from the disastrous management of Eddie Jones.

Since 2005, the Waratahs have been the best performed Australian franchise, not only twice reaching the final of the competition, but now boasting a four match winning streak against their oldest foes.

So far, despite a new coach and having turned over half of their formidable 2008 pack, NSW still looks to be a potent force.

Some aspects are still not clear, though.

Chris Hickey has still to unveil the promised open attacking style that he said he would implement to erode Ewen McKenzie’s pragmatic style. But a common aspect of recent Waratahs rugby, their defence, is still formidable.

So formidable, in fact, that it looks to have the strength to again have them reach the semi finals.

And it is this that will likely be the difference between the two teams.

Queensland coach Phil Mooney deserves a huge amount of credit. While he has stated that they will take “winning ugly” if need be, the Reds are playing an unashamed brand of open running rugby.

It is good that a modern rugby team remembers that as important as rugby is to us all, it is still just a game, and a good game needs to be entertaining.

But it is here that NSW will likely strangle them out of the match.

While Queensland snapped a six-game losing streak in Super Rugby by beating the Cheetahs last week, their all offensive and light ruck commitment style is far from complete, and will be ineffective against experienced and defensively orientated teams.

Like the Waratahs.

It will likely be a continuation of Queensland’s pain, with NSW to win by 4. This win will extend their home winning streak to ten matches, last achieved in 1936.

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