By James Mortimer -
March 6th 2009 @ 1:47am
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Waratahs by four in the rugby State of Origin
It’s a classic Australian derby between the two original rugby states of Australia – Queensland and New South Wales – with the tune being sung this year for an introduction of a rugby league style State Of Origin.
At the beginning of Super Rugby, Queensland were untouchable in this local contest.
The Reds, despite never winning the title, were a rugby dynasty. John Eales, Tim Horan, this was a team that began Super Rugby by posting two fifty point wins against Canterbury and Auckland and came first in both 1996 and in 1999.
Up until 2004, with the exception of a draw, this was a completely one sided rivalry, with the Reds having won their first eight clashes.
But, despite the promise and the roster full of potential front line Wallabies, this is a team still repairing itself from the disastrous management of Eddie Jones.
Since 2005, the Waratahs have been the best performed Australian franchise, not only twice reaching the final of the competition, but now boasting a four match winning streak against their oldest foes.
So far, despite a new coach and having turned over half of their formidable 2008 pack, NSW still looks to be a potent force.
Some aspects are still not clear, though.
Chris Hickey has still to unveil the promised open attacking style that he said he would implement to erode Ewen McKenzie’s pragmatic style. But a common aspect of recent Waratahs rugby, their defence, is still formidable.
So formidable, in fact, that it looks to have the strength to again have them reach the semi finals.
And it is this that will likely be the difference between the two teams.
Queensland coach Phil Mooney deserves a huge amount of credit. While he has stated that they will take “winning ugly” if need be, the Reds are playing an unashamed brand of open running rugby.
It is good that a modern rugby team remembers that as important as rugby is to us all, it is still just a game, and a good game needs to be entertaining.
But it is here that NSW will likely strangle them out of the match.
While Queensland snapped a six-game losing streak in Super Rugby by beating the Cheetahs last week, their all offensive and light ruck commitment style is far from complete, and will be ineffective against experienced and defensively orientated teams.
Like the Waratahs.
It will likely be a continuation of Queensland’s pain, with NSW to win by 4. This win will extend their home winning streak to ten matches, last achieved in 1936.
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Bay35Pablo said | March 6th 2009 @ 10:21am | Report comment
If the teams play to form, tahs by 10.
The Reds will lift because they love beating us, but they haven’t got the players or the experience to do anything but sneak a win. And if they do it will be bacause the tahs lost, not the Reds winning.
The Reds team, with a season or two more experience, and if they keep the same line up together, could start to be pretty good, but they are at the beginning of the rebuilding phase beginning to pay dividends, not the end. The tahs have a solid team of experienced players, or newer players that have been groomed within that team, and have the nous and grit to grind it out if need be, but smash them if they can.
I like the fact the Reds appear to be coming back, as nothing beats an even match up for a great game, but the Tahs should win it and by more than a goal or so.
James Mortimer said | March 6th 2009 @ 2:41pm | Report comment
Full preview, histories stats and teams here
http://www.rugbycountry.net/2009/03/super-14-preview-nsw-waratahs-vs-qld.html
True Tah said | March 6th 2009 @ 2:54pm | Report comment
Agree Pablo, I think the Tahs will dish it out to the Reds, Ive been impressed with the Reds backs, but the rugby saying is that games are one in the forwards, and I personally think the Reds forwards are lacking in fitness and Palu is licking his lips at what he can do tonight.
Having said that, I would love to see Ioane charging in at Beale, and hopefully Kurtley will try and use more than his hands to stop him!
OldManEmu said | March 6th 2009 @ 9:31pm | Report comment
Queensland won two, back to back, Super Rugby titles.
But good guess on the margin.
Armchair Sportsfan said | March 8th 2009 @ 10:34pm | Report comment
Correct OME…I’d also through in a Super 6 title in 1992 to those two Super 10 titles in 94 and 95.
Bay35Pablo said | March 13th 2009 @ 12:33pm | Report comment
I know it’s a bit late in the week, but was it just me or was the offside just simply not policed? At one stage the Queensland defensive line was in line with the ball in the ruck, let along the back feet or 5m behind it. The ref was atrocious ….