Take the reigns and make the winning call
Roar Guru
By pothale, 7 Mar 2009 Pot Hale is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- Ireland, Scotland, Six Nations
You can picture the scene. You’ve been there countless times before. You’re screaming at your team on the pitch, or on a TV screen at home, or in the pub. to take a particular course of action.
“Take the bloody penalty kick”.
“No, run it.”
“Kick for touch for a lineout near their line.”
In the last World Cup, Daniel Carter had millions of All Blacks screaming at him to take a drop kick to no avail. It’s probably one of the most memorable ‘if-onlys’ debates of the last decade of rugby.
Every season, millions of fans are left groaning in despair as their team makes the ‘wrong decision’ in hindsight. If only they’d listened to you, you tell your mates in the pub. If I’d be in (Captain X ) shoes, here’s what I’d have done.
Well here’s your chance, without fear of spilling a ball, or slicing a kick, to make a captain’s call.
Three years ago, Ireland lost the 6 Nations Championship by a single try scored by France against Scotland in the last minute of the last match.
Many blamed the loss on a lapse of concentration by Ireland in the preceding match against Italy when they conceded a consolation try having built a 45-point lead.
Six Nations Championships are decided by match points, then Points Difference, then number of tries. If all are equal between two teams, then they share the title.
So imagine this scenario from the upcoming denouement of the Six Nations.
Ireland has won three from three and are in the driving seat.
If they win their next two games, they are the outright winners and secure a Grand Slam for the first time in over 60 years. Wales and France are second and third place.
The next and penultimate round of matches is: Scotland Vs Ireland; England Vs France; Italy Vs Wales.
For the purposes of this scenario, let’s assume that the top three teams beat the bottom three. And I’m going make assumptions on the likely gains in Points Difference and tries for the final round of matches.
In the final round, France play Italy at home before the Wales Vs Ireland match. And I’m going to fairly assume they’ll give them a pasting and run in the tries – just enough to put them one try ahead of Ireland and two ahead of Wales.
So in this scenario, the 6 Nations table would look like this at 5pm, 21 March as the fans continue to teem into the Millennium Stadium for the final match:
Team P W D L PD TS Pts
Ireland 4 4 0 0 54 11 8
France 5 4 0 1 51 12 8
Wales 4 3 0 1 45 10 6
Jones and O’Driscoll have some idea of the result from France but haven’t worked out all the various complexities/permutations.
Wales kick off knowing they need to win by a margin of six points or more and possibly might also need three tries to take the Six Nations Championship title and the Triple Crown.
Ireland know they need to just win for the Grand Slam. (They could draw or lose by only a certain number of points for the title, but not the Triple Crown. Or they could share.) However, O’Driscoll and Co are focused only on winning as they receive the first ball.
France just have to sit and wait.
So the game gets underway and both sides tear hell out of each other.
It’s two tries apiece after 60 minutes. Wales convert both, Ireland miss one but then get a penalty to move ahead by a point. With seven minutes to go, the Welsh apply fierce pressure and win a penalty kick. Ryan Jones looks at the scoreboard and reasons that a kick would put them back ahead by two, but a try would possibly give them an unassailable lead and move them ahead of the French on try count – if he remembers correctly.
He calls it.
The Welsh kick for touch and from the resulting lineout they score with Stephen Jones adding the honours. It’s now 21-15 and the Welsh are looking strong for the Triple Crown and title.
From the kickoff, the Irish pack catch, recycle and a line break by Kearney takes them upfield deep inside the 22. Furious defending by Wales and then a roar as the ref puts up his arm for a penalty – to Ireland – midway between touchline and posts – it’s kickable, but not a dead cert.
There’s just over three minutes left. The players gather and talk options excitedly. O’Gara’s nodding furiously that he can get the kick. Some are pointing at the touchline. And others are pointing at the award spot for a scrum.
They fall silent and look at O’Driscoll.
Decision time. It’s the Captain’s Call. Time’s ticking. The options spin as he tries to remember the various scores.
At stake are:
- Losing everything
- winning/losing the Triple Crown but possibly
- winning/losing the championship or
- sharing the title possibly
or
- Winning the Grand Slam for your team and your country for the first time in the modern, professional era.
No pressure then. What would you do?
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LeftArmSpinner said | March 7th 2009 @ 6:38am | Report comment
Go for the win. No guts, no glory. Just remember back to the 1991 RWC Quarter final, Aust V Ireland.
pothale said | March 7th 2009 @ 6:46am | Report comment
They’re both winning situations, LAS. Taking the kick would give them the Championship title. Failing to get the try means they get nothing.
Or do you mean go for winning the game?
I remember that RWC match only too well…… another nearly moment.
ohtani's jacket said | March 7th 2009 @ 12:32pm | Report comment
Simple — take the penalty and try to score from the restart.
I didn’t know there were millions of All Blacks or even millions of All Black fans. I also didn’t know that NZ rugby supporters scream for drop goals.
“In the last World Cup, Wayne Barnes had hundreds of thousands of All Black supporters screaming at him to award a penalty to no avail.”
Who Needs Melon said | March 7th 2009 @ 6:48pm | Report comment
Sitting here with my gut hanging out typing at my computer it’s an easy call,…
I’d be a fearless decisive leader and make absolutely the best call. I’d ask for the ball myself, take a quick tap and then barge through the entire Welsh team, shrugging off defenders and scoring between the posts. Perhaps with a chip kick or two just for good measure.
Keith said | March 7th 2009 @ 8:53pm | Report comment
OJ
“I also didn’t know that NZ rugby supporters scream for drop goals.”
Now you do.
“I didn’t know there were millions…of All Black fans.”
4.3 million residents, surely at least a quarter of them support the national team. Or are you making a distinction between fan and supporter? You’re a fun guy, can’t wait to read your survey results.
Pothale,
No contest, take the three. If you get it and win the restart, pick and go for as long as possible. Kick for territory. Win.
If you get it and lose the restart, be stingy about commiting players to the breakdown and defend like crazy till you are champions.
If you miss the penalty, get Brian O’Driscoll to make a very short motivational speech, win the restart and score a try under the posts in extra time.
ohtani's jacket said | March 7th 2009 @ 9:05pm | Report comment
If there’s a million rugby fans in New Zealand it sure as hell doesn’t show up in crowd attendance or TV ratings.
pothale said | March 8th 2009 @ 12:04am | Report comment
Hmmmm….
If I have to make the call, the question is do I want to win the title or the match. Winning the match gives me the Grand Slam – and that’s the target – unspoken – for this team.
I can ask RO’G to make the kick and hopefully get it. Now we have the title in our grasp, but little or no time left for anything else. And he could miss it, in which case it’s a 22 drop-out to Wales. They now defend like crazy and we possibly hand momentum to them. With less than 2 minutes to go after the kick.
If we go for a lineout or scrum, it’s our put-in and we get to keep the ball and apply pressure. ROG still has to make the conversion so we need to take it in field. There’s a possibility of a try, drop or penalty kick. We didn’t come here just to win the title, and lose the Grand Slam and Triple Crown.
Of the two – lineout or scrum – the scrum is a solid platform and it’s nearer infield. But there’s more go-forward possible off the line-out. I’m gonna go for lineout and the try. Glory or nothing.
(and I’ll have thought through the following in 10 seconds of course.
)
pothale said | March 8th 2009 @ 12:08am | Report comment
PS. OJ. You’re being a pedantic fart. If you prefer me to say thousands of NZ fans, will that make you happy? Since it’s bloody irrelevant to the thrust of the story, anyway.
Jerry said | March 8th 2009 @ 4:55am | Report comment
I think there probably are a million rugby fans in NZ, however they wouldn’t have been screaming for Daniel Carter to take one, he was off injured.
ohtani's jacket said | March 8th 2009 @ 9:04am | Report comment
Alright then, back to the main thrust…
Ireland haven’t won the title since ’85 right? Surely you’d go for the penalty. You guys have won the Triple Crown three times without winning the title, I don’t see how getting your hands on the trophy would be bittersweet.