You can picture the scene. You’ve been there countless times before. You’re screaming at your team on the pitch, or on a TV screen at home, or in the pub. to take a particular course of action.
“Take the bloody penalty kick”.
“No, run it.”
“Kick for touch for a lineout near their line.”
In the last World Cup, Daniel Carter had millions of All Blacks screaming at him to take a drop kick to no avail. It’s probably one of the most memorable ‘if-onlys’ debates of the last decade of rugby.
Every season, millions of fans are left groaning in despair as their team makes the ‘wrong decision’ in hindsight. If only they’d listened to you, you tell your mates in the pub. If I’d be in (Captain X ) shoes, here’s what I’d have done.
Well here’s your chance, without fear of spilling a ball, or slicing a kick, to make a captain’s call.
Three years ago, Ireland lost the 6 Nations Championship by a single try scored by France against Scotland in the last minute of the last match.
Many blamed the loss on a lapse of concentration by Ireland in the preceding match against Italy when they conceded a consolation try having built a 45-point lead.
Six Nations Championships are decided by match points, then Points Difference, then number of tries. If all are equal between two teams, then they share the title.
So imagine this scenario from the upcoming denouement of the Six Nations.
Ireland has won three from three and are in the driving seat.
If they win their next two games, they are the outright winners and secure a Grand Slam for the first time in over 60 years. Wales and France are second and third place.
The next and penultimate round of matches is: Scotland Vs Ireland; England Vs France; Italy Vs Wales.
For the purposes of this scenario, let’s assume that the top three teams beat the bottom three. And I’m going make assumptions on the likely gains in Points Difference and tries for the final round of matches.
In the final round, France play Italy at home before the Wales Vs Ireland match. And I’m going to fairly assume they’ll give them a pasting and run in the tries – just enough to put them one try ahead of Ireland and two ahead of Wales.
So in this scenario, the 6 Nations table would look like this at 5pm, 21 March as the fans continue to teem into the Millennium Stadium for the final match:
Team P W D L PD TS Pts
Ireland 4 4 0 0 54 11 8
France 5 4 0 1 51 12 8
Wales 4 3 0 1 45 10 6
Jones and O’Driscoll have some idea of the result from France but haven’t worked out all the various complexities/permutations.
Wales kick off knowing they need to win by a margin of six points or more and possibly might also need three tries to take the Six Nations Championship title and the Triple Crown.
Ireland know they need to just win for the Grand Slam. (They could draw or lose by only a certain number of points for the title, but not the Triple Crown. Or they could share.) However, O’Driscoll and Co are focused only on winning as they receive the first ball.
France just have to sit and wait.
So the game gets underway and both sides tear hell out of each other.
It’s two tries apiece after 60 minutes. Wales convert both, Ireland miss one but then get a penalty to move ahead by a point. With seven minutes to go, the Welsh apply fierce pressure and win a penalty kick. Ryan Jones looks at the scoreboard and reasons that a kick would put them back ahead by two, but a try would possibly give them an unassailable lead and move them ahead of the French on try count – if he remembers correctly.
He calls it.
The Welsh kick for touch and from the resulting lineout they score with Stephen Jones adding the honours. It’s now 21-15 and the Welsh are looking strong for the Triple Crown and title.
From the kickoff, the Irish pack catch, recycle and a line break by Kearney takes them upfield deep inside the 22. Furious defending by Wales and then a roar as the ref puts up his arm for a penalty – to Ireland – midway between touchline and posts – it’s kickable, but not a dead cert.
There’s just over three minutes left. The players gather and talk options excitedly. O’Gara’s nodding furiously that he can get the kick. Some are pointing at the touchline. And others are pointing at the award spot for a scrum.
They fall silent and look at O’Driscoll.
Decision time. It’s the Captain’s Call. Time’s ticking. The options spin as he tries to remember the various scores.
At stake are:
- Losing everything
- winning/losing the Triple Crown but possibly
- winning/losing the championship or
- sharing the title possibly
or
- Winning the Grand Slam for your team and your country for the first time in the modern, professional era.
No pressure then. What would you do?
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March 8th 2009 @ 11:37am
Jerry said | March 8th 2009 @ 11:37am | Report comment
Quick question Pothale – is the Triple Crown really looked at as a prestigious achievement? Seems to me it’s a mere holdover from when the 6 Nations was the 4 Nations and is a bit of an anachronism – put it this way, if the Canes don’t win the S14 this year but manage to beat all the other NZ teams I wouldn’t view that as any sort of a consolation.
March 8th 2009 @ 11:44am
pothale said | March 8th 2009 @ 11:44am | Report comment
True, OJ. In fact, we’ve been second four times in the last ten years, just missing out on Grand Slams twice and titles, including the one referred to above in the article.
It’s what led me to write the posed question in the article. We’ve been there ‘nearly’ so often in the last number of years, that I wondered what would happen if we got to the point where the title was in our grasp, but if there was an alternative route/decision to win the Grand Slam, what would you do? If you went for the penalty and won the title, but lost the Triple Crown and Grand Slam, would it come back to haunt you as captain or the team? Particularly, as the chance may not come round again for a number of these players like O’Driscoll, O’Gara, Hayes, etc .
March 8th 2009 @ 11:51am
pothale said | March 8th 2009 @ 11:51am | Report comment
Jerry
The Triple Crown has become a lesser title since the advent of the 6 Nations and professionalism. The title and/or Grand Slam are of much greater value. I’m not sure if you’d call the Bledisloe its equaivalent, though I know that’s only between two countries. The Triple Crown was valued much higher during 5 Nations time even though there wasn’t even a cup or shield created for it at that point.
It would be a poor prize to only gain the Triple Crown for Ireland. Except this year, because beating Soctland and Wales would also mean winning the Grand Slam – that’s the holy grail for the season.
March 8th 2009 @ 6:19pm
Jerry said | March 8th 2009 @ 6:19pm | Report comment
Pothale – Actually I guess the Bledisloe is a good comparison – although it may only be over one other country it gives bragging rights over the nearest neighbours. That gives me a better understanding of how I’d feel.
As far as the answer to the main question, from Ireland’s point of view having not won the championship for a fair while, I’d say giving up the Grand Slam and Triple Crown but winning the 6N would be a fair trade off, I’d have thought.
March 9th 2009 @ 12:08am
katzilla said | March 9th 2009 @ 12:08am | Report comment
Get yourself a Dolorian, a flux capacitor and some weapons grade Uranium.
Hold your speed to 88mph and set your clock to 2 weeks prior.
Sneak into the Irish change rooms and say to BOD………………………………………………
…………’Did you really cry after Umaga tackled you in 05?’
Then you say ‘Stand and Deliver! or the devil he may take ya!, ah do dubba do dubba dow!!!!!
P.S – Don’t get seen by your past self, he may be upset about how you aged so much in 2 weeks after seeing your team throw away the kind of Glory that song writers sing about. Does the 3 pointer get that for you? Nope.
Fortune favours the brave.
March 9th 2009 @ 1:03am
pothale said | March 9th 2009 @ 1:03am | Report comment
A DeLorean…. Hmmm, never thought of that. Must go visit Prof Brown and see if he can help. Would he be able to bring one onto the pitch, I wonder?
I’m for passing on the penalty though. And if he did, would I give him a barracking? Maybe after a few drinks….
Then you discover a few weeks later that Gethin Jenkins had injured himself just before the penalty, and wouldn’t have been able to compete in the scrum……
Doh!
March 10th 2009 @ 12:35pm
Keith said | March 10th 2009 @ 12:35pm | Report comment
For me there’s a very “positive” reason to take the shot at goal – get it and you have almost put the match, and the title, in the bank. If you wanted to take a look at the “negative” side of the ledger, imagine how much of a pasting your captaincy would take if you turned down the penalty and lost everything.
Also, since I am a full 27% more pedantic than OJ, I’ll mention a story in last weekend’s Sunday Star Times. A shock survey, has shocking found that rugby is NZ’s most popular sport by “quite a margin”. In a shock display of over-the-top pedantry, I’ve provided the link:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/2099679/Dan-Carter-still-number-one-in-NZ
March 11th 2009 @ 12:41am
pothale said | March 11th 2009 @ 12:41am | Report comment
If you turn down the penalty and lose everything – I think you find yourself a large spade, dig a large hole in your garden, climb in and don’t surface for a month until the Heineken Cup has started again and is in full swing. Hopefully people won’t have noticed your absence….