Can home ground advantage save the Brumbies?
Columnist
By Spiro Zavos, 11 Mar 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- Brumbies, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
Friday night’s Super 14 match at Canberra between the ACT Brumbies and the NSW Waratahs involves a fascinating contest between the power of the past (the Brumbies’ terrific winning record at home) and the pull of the present (the Waratahs’ terrific winning record this season).
First, the pull of the present: the Waratahs have won all four of their matches this season. They have garnered two bonus points. They have the third best Points Differential (plus 30 points) and the best (with the Crusaders) record for conceding tries (six so far this season).
On the back of these statistics, the Waratahs are first-equal with the Bulls on the table and have won their only away match against the strong Hurricanes side at Wellington.
The Brumbies, on the other hand, have won two out of their three matches this season. Their Points Differential of -5 is seventh best, or worst, among the 14 sides.
They have conceded 11 tries in three matches. They lost their last match at home against the Western Force.
But this brings us to the power of the past.
That loss was only the second time since 1996 that the Brumbies have been defeated at Canberra by an Australian side. The home ground advantage against Australian teams is a sixteen wins to two defeats record.
The Waratahs have played the Brumbies six times at Canberra and won only one time, in 2005. That year, with Ewen McKenzie as coach, the Waratahs went on to make the final.
In my view, the Brumbies have not played their best centre pairing in the tournament, with the Stirling Mortlock-Adam Ashley-Cooper combination.
I saw the team play against the Hurricanes pre-season and Tyrone Smith had a big impact on the victory playing at inside centre. If a Smith-Mortock pairing is used, I think the Brumbies have a good chance of a forward to the future type of win.
I also believe that the Waratahs have not played to their potential this year. In The Sydney Morning Herald on Tuesday, I argued that the team had been playing dumb rugby, and that this tendency towards dumb play will catch up with the team if the habit is not changed.
A Waratahs side playing with an expansive game plan - using the blistering pace of Lachlan Turner and Rob Horne, the two fastest backs in Australian rugby, with a strong scrum and lineout giving quality ball to the backs to use – should turn out to be comfortable winners.
But then we have made similar predictions about a Waratahs victory at Canberra based on the pull of the present only for the side to be confounded by the power of the past.
My guess, though, is that the present will trump the past at Canberra on Friday night.
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Knives Out said | March 11th 2009 @ 1:34am | Report comment
Tyrone Smith had a very good season last year and yet he is being completely ignored. How will that help his development over the long-term?
sesenta y cuatro said | March 11th 2009 @ 4:19am | Report comment
I think Mortlock and Ashley-Cooper are a pair of very good players, but when it comes to the best mid-field combination of the super 14, I cannot resist a soft spot for Nonu-Smith and a very deep respect for Steyn-Jacobs.
Matt said | March 11th 2009 @ 5:34am | Report comment
I reckon Phil Waugh’s younger brother is a better centre than Smith….
LeftArmSpinner said | March 11th 2009 @ 6:48am | Report comment
Matt, you refer to World Waugh or tug of Waugh or who?? Smith is very handy centre indeed.
As for home advantage, that is not all the Brumbies have. They will probably face a weakened pack, and one that the tahs management have shown they dont fully believe in. If they did, they would have brought these players off the bench in earlier games so as to blood them. Anyway, we are about to find out.
Foley is another factor, and at least we know that the replacements, if required, will play with commitment at the breakdown, technique and passion in defence.
As for dumb rugby, I read the article yesterday and was frustrated that I could not reply. I agree up to a point. As regards the kick offs, definitely yes. Dumb, no matter how good the kick chase is. The box kick is part of the plan because Burgess is there dilligently practicing it before kick off. they use it too frequently early in the game, and it is invariably too high, allowing it to be caught with ease and without much kick chase as the forwards are head down in the ruck or scrum.
While The Reds have the same blinding speed, Ioane and possibly Hynes, it is still great getting it to the fast guys. jsut look at what Turner did in just a little space on several occasions last Friday. Now, the Brumbies dont have that pace, like Rathbone or Gerard, and he could be seriously caught out if he is marking Turner.
The wiseing up is an interesting one. I suspect that they are doing their best and that this, subject to injuries will get them to the semis. They may not reach their full potential for a few seasons yet.
For me, I would like a return to sweeping back line play, particularly from set piece. The Blues and Reds pulled off exciting tries from such moves this last week end and the Tahs have done so earlier in the season. The Reds brought the blind side winger in to 13, and the fullback into wing, and then cut out both of them with passes, all done at pace. It ended with 6 on 5 and the final winger went over untouched, against the Tahs proven defensive line.
This part of rugby is often forgotten in the noise of keeping scrums and lineouts “pure” and central to rugby.
Knives Out said | March 11th 2009 @ 7:04am | Report comment
LeftArmSpinner, I disagreed with the “Dumb” theory. I don’t see how a short kick off is automatically beneficial in any way. If the kick off is long the ball is still going to be kicked out but the further the ball is in the receiving half the better. If the kick is long and high then everything falls into place. Everybody always says “A kick is only as good as the chase”. Wrong. The kick is only as good as the kick. In the recent France v Wales game the restarts from Baby were sensational. They were long and high which obviously pressured the receiving team.
“This part of rugby is often forgotten in the noise of keeping scrums and lineouts “pure” and central to rugby.”
What does this mean?
Brendo said | March 11th 2009 @ 7:15am | Report comment
Turner burnt Rathbone on the outside in a trial match at the SFS at the start of this year. I hope he does so again in Canberra.
WheresTheBloodySideline said | March 11th 2009 @ 8:18am | Report comment
all NSW need to do, given an even share of possession, is pass wide to whoever is playing opposite Rathbone. Apart from continually getting himself out of position,his defence invariably result in his opposition stepping out of his tackles and continuing downfield. I’d have AAC on the wing, Smith at 12 and Mortlock at 13.
The real problem for the Brumbies though is that they have a fly half who has a very poor kicking game and also finds it very difficult to pass in front of the man.
I hope I’m wrong with all of this and the Brumbies grind them into the turf.
Terry Kidd said | March 11th 2009 @ 9:05am | Report comment
I think it will be tough and close but I’m predicting a Tahs win 4 tries to 1 …. based on Brumbies leaky defence and Tahs strong defence …. but with the actual score closer due to Brumbies penalty goals …. Tahs by 7. Tahs scrum and line out to dominate. Smith to pilfer a couple at the breakdown. Tahs speed out wide to hurt the Brumbies in the end …. I expect Rathbone and Gerard to be on the wings for the Brumbies and for them both to get snapped and burnt by Turner, Horne Tuqiri and Tahu. Poor AAC will be standing at fullback trying to decide which blue jumper to tackle as he faces an on-rushing blue horde. Leafiliano to have a shocker …. hammered by Waugh and Mowen when he gets the ball and staring at Palu trying to rampage all over the top of him in defence … his confidence will get a hammering.
Who Needs Melon said | March 11th 2009 @ 9:38am | Report comment
Spiro,
Good article.
Why is it that we (public, journos, coaches) become enamoured of certain players (Tahu, Ashley-Cooper) and will do anything to get and keep them on the park, including playing them and/or others out of position.
While others (like Carter and Tyrone Smith) fly under the radar despite actually being of more benefit to their teams?
matt said | March 11th 2009 @ 10:18am | Report comment
Leafiliano is just holding the keys until Gits returns to the fold, but that still doesn’t solve the problem at 12…not convinved of Mortlock there. It was the same early in his career when he was the best 13 in super rugby, and then made to play on the wing for Australia.
Has AAC been tried enough at 12? I also have thought that Rathbone might have been an option at 12, but I don’t think he has the hands (or the speed anymore).
Seems to all point at Tyrone Smith.
If the Brumbies get half decent ball from the forwards, then they may be a show, but as Terry said, Leafiliano’s confidence will not be helped by a tidal wave of blues jumpers aimed at him.