Can home ground advantage save the Brumbies?
Columnist By Spiro Zavos, 11 Mar 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- Brumbies, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
Friday night’s Super 14 match at Canberra between the ACT Brumbies and the NSW Waratahs involves a fascinating contest between the power of the past (the Brumbies’ terrific winning record at home) and the pull of the present (the Waratahs’ terrific winning record this season).
First, the pull of the present: the Waratahs have won all four of their matches this season. They have garnered two bonus points. They have the third best Points Differential (plus 30 points) and the best (with the Crusaders) record for conceding tries (six so far this season).
On the back of these statistics, the Waratahs are first-equal with the Bulls on the table and have won their only away match against the strong Hurricanes side at Wellington.
The Brumbies, on the other hand, have won two out of their three matches this season. Their Points Differential of -5 is seventh best, or worst, among the 14 sides.
They have conceded 11 tries in three matches. They lost their last match at home against the Western Force.
But this brings us to the power of the past.
That loss was only the second time since 1996 that the Brumbies have been defeated at Canberra by an Australian side. The home ground advantage against Australian teams is a sixteen wins to two defeats record.
The Waratahs have played the Brumbies six times at Canberra and won only one time, in 2005. That year, with Ewen McKenzie as coach, the Waratahs went on to make the final.
In my view, the Brumbies have not played their best centre pairing in the tournament, with the Stirling Mortlock-Adam Ashley-Cooper combination.
I saw the team play against the Hurricanes pre-season and Tyrone Smith had a big impact on the victory playing at inside centre. If a Smith-Mortock pairing is used, I think the Brumbies have a good chance of a forward to the future type of win.
I also believe that the Waratahs have not played to their potential this year. In The Sydney Morning Herald on Tuesday, I argued that the team had been playing dumb rugby, and that this tendency towards dumb play will catch up with the team if the habit is not changed.
A Waratahs side playing with an expansive game plan - using the blistering pace of Lachlan Turner and Rob Horne, the two fastest backs in Australian rugby, with a strong scrum and lineout giving quality ball to the backs to use – should turn out to be comfortable winners.
But then we have made similar predictions about a Waratahs victory at Canberra based on the pull of the present only for the side to be confounded by the power of the past.
My guess, though, is that the present will trump the past at Canberra on Friday night.
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- Brumbies, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
March 11th 2009 @ 10:24am
WorkingClassRugger said | March 11th 2009 @ 10:24am | Report comment
As long as the Tahs don’t decide to play silly buggers, it should a comfortable victory. While the Tahs performances this year have left alot to desire(much to my and every other Tahs fans frustration) the Brumbies have been appalling. Barely snuck home agianst the improving Highlanders( by no means a contender though) and a severely defficient Crusaders( no Carter or Deans = No Title). Tahs beat a gritty Reds line up who I am beginning to think will finish arund 5-6 not quite finals material yet but definitly getting there. And have made life tough for themselves by insisting on giving the opposition all the ball they like, choosing to tackle them out of games. But the fact is superior backline as a unit. superior halves and a evitable shellacking the Tahs pack is going to dish out, it should be 5 & 0. Hell can’t wait till the force game, if they collapsed under the pressure of the Brumbies pack, imagine the carnage when the Tahs dominate( and severely underrated pack, its actually one of the best in the comp) unit sinks its teeth in.
March 11th 2009 @ 10:44am
Jameswm said | March 11th 2009 @ 10:44am | Report comment
Tahu has scored 2 tries in limited appearances. He is less exposed in defence at 12, esp with Horne outside him. Tahu’s problem is not the actual tackling, it’s his positioning and reading of the attack, and they’re stil trying to drive the league-style “come in and take the ball” out of him.
NSW really monstered Qld in the forwards, and ACT have an inferior pack. Tafu is a must to start, as he makes a huge difference in the scrums.
I agree – don’t over-kick, keep things simple and pass in front of the man, and NSW should win.
One thing with the Tahs – even when they’re below their best, they are very hard to beat. They have a tough pack and excellent defence.
March 11th 2009 @ 10:57am
Terry Kidd said | March 11th 2009 @ 10:57am | Report comment
I have to agree with Workingclassrugger about the Force …. they were diabolical against the Chiefs …. heaven help them when they no longer have Giteau …. he stole enough ball close to the rucks for Mitchell to consider playing him at 7 …. and he stole it when the Force needed it stolen.
Mitchell looked ok at fullback but got isolated a couple of times. Does Cross know how to defend? He stormed up once and got posted leaving a gaping hole for a Chiefs try, then fell off another ineffectual tackle that resulted in Kahui’s try. This is off subject I know but I can only think that the Force were absolutely clueless yet the week before they beat the Brumbies.
On the basis of form, on who has played who so far, and who has won against who, you would have to pick the Tahs to win by 15 plus ….. but the home ground could even it up a little.
March 11th 2009 @ 12:10pm
LeftArmSpinner said | March 11th 2009 @ 12:10pm | Report comment
Knives, there is a lot of noise, some of it well justified that we must keep the scrum and the lineout as part of the game. the art of sweeping backline play is sometimes lost in the noise about scrums etc. as a back, I call for more backline play, expansive, ball in hand rugby. Attack from set pieces, and attack from aimless kicks, etc.
March 11th 2009 @ 1:03pm
mudskipper said | March 11th 2009 @ 1:03pm | Report comment
It would be a grave mistake to judge the Brumbies pack on last years results. The Brumbies in 2009 have the strongest and most mobile pack in Australian rugby. Their set piece is very solid and will compete in every play. They also boast the best bench depth…
However the Brumbies halves need to communicate better and stand at a depth which allows them to use the talent outside backs. While their backline may not be the fastest in the competition their not that much slower and their experience is ten fold…
Gerard’s kicking game at full back is the best in the comp. Expect changes, Tyrone Smith will play at 12, Mortlock 13 and AAC on the wing. I would expect to see Gerard to stay at 15. Additionally Tyrone Smith should have a better understanding with Lealiifano as they have played more games together, Mortlock hasn’t clicked with Lealiifano at fly this year…
The Brumbies loss to the Force was due to fundamental defensive mistakes in the backs with this new centre combo this should be alleviated. Their forwards completely dominated the Force. The Waratahs pack will be injury depleted and will be tested in Canberra come Friday night. The Brumbies have had 2 weeks to focus on this match and address their loss against the Force.
The Waratahs while winning their 4 matches haven’t genuinely been tested by a comprehensive team yet…
The Tahs played the week1 Hurricanes who were atrocious away in Wellington…
Then week 2 the Chiefs who were injury depleted…
Week 3 the Highlanders who were also injury depleted and not the strongest NZ team…
And then week 4 the Reds who are also injury depleted and are not the most dominate Australian team. Additionally the Tahs win was by a fortuitous bounce of the ball.
Brumbies by 8 -10 at home… but not more than 12 punters…
March 11th 2009 @ 1:18pm
Terry Kidd said | March 11th 2009 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
Phew Mudskipper …. The Brumbies in 2009 have the strongest and most mobile pack in Australian rugby. Their set piece is very solid and will compete in every play. They also boast the best bench depth… that is one hell of a couple of statements !!!
Strongest and most mobile pack? I think you might stir up a hornets nest of replies on that one.
March 11th 2009 @ 1:37pm
Jameswm said | March 11th 2009 @ 1:37pm | Report comment
The Brumbies have the strongest pack, mudskipper? They have the best bench depth? The Waratahs haven’t been tested?
The 4th placed Hurricanes have lost only one game this year, at home. Can you remind me who that was to again?
And the tahs only beat the Reds on a bounce of the ball? Would that be the unlucky bounce that stopped a certain try by Lachie Turner? Or the bounce of a ball after another scrum decimation? Or perhaps the bounce of a ball after another great defensive lineout by the Tahs?
The Brumbies don’t have a decent 5/8 and that is their biggest issue. I agree Gerrard has been doing well and should stay at 15, but AAC seems to enjoy a rite of passage.
So I see a Brumby fan has taken some light blue medicine and is pumping up his team early in the season, despite an atrocious loss in their last outing. I forgot – moving Mortlock to 13 will change all that.
The packs one on one are – to see which is stronger
Benn Robinson vs Guy Shepherdson – Robbo clear winner
TPN vs Stephen Moore – TPM marginally stronger physically and everywhere except on the throw
Baxter v Henderson – no contest
Mumm vs Chisholm – Chis has bigger biceps but he’s never worked out how to use them
Caldwell vs Ben Hand is it? – Caldwell but probably not by a lot
Mowen vs Salvi – Mowen taller, Salvi an additional fetcher
Waugh vs Smith – nothing between them as always
Palu vs Hoiles – we aren’t seriously conparing these two on strength are we?
So can you remind me how the Brumbies have the stronger pack again? And mobility wise I’ll give you Hoiles on Palu and Henderson on Baxter, but TPN is considerably more mobile than Moore and Mumm is the fastest forward in the country.
What was your other outrageous claim? Apart from denigrating wins because other teams have injury woes (every heard of Dunning and Kepu – both Wallabies, not to mention Scott Fava and Lote’s cousin Naciganyavi who terrorised everyone in grade last year), you conveniently forgot about the Brumbies’ charmed with opponents’ injuries early on.
In terms of the bench
Tilse vs Ben Alexander – Brumbies win that one but note two Wallaby waratah props are injured
Freier is considerably better than whoever your backup hooker is (Huia edmonds maybe?)
Thomson vs Kimlin – I’ll give you that
Dave Dennis vs Timani – different styles, hard to say
Sheehan vs Holmes/Phibbs – Tahs which makes it 2-2
Tom Carter/Tahu vs rookie Toomua – 3-2 to the Tahs
Halangahu vs Rathbone (assuming TSmith starts) – Rathbone an ex-Wallaby but a long way from that sort of form.
Overall a close win to the Tahs, even with three important forwards out
The Brumbies will be panicking at the prospect of another loss at home and will play safety first. That is likely to play into the Tahs’ hands. I agree the Tahs haven’t hit their straps yet…but they might on Friday night.
March 11th 2009 @ 5:32pm
brad turner said | March 11th 2009 @ 5:32pm | Report comment
GO TAHS!!!! dont mind the brumbies but GO TAHS GO.
March 11th 2009 @ 8:48pm
sportym said | March 11th 2009 @ 8:48pm | Report comment
Jameswm,
Come on mate, TPN better then moore? Nothing between Smith and Waugh? You kidding right? Moore and Smith are the best players in the positions in Australia right now.
And a pack is not based on strength mate, otherwise based on you criteria the SA teams would have the best packs in the game. This is S14 not Test rugby. The bumbies are the only Australian team to have won the title twice and both times they did not have the strongest pack, their style of play is based on a fast mobile pack, sadly without a quality 5/8 they are struggling, just as they did when larkham was injured. I suspect though that the brumbies back will hold the tahs.
You do not win the title just by having a pack, look what the crusaders did to the tahs last year in the final, the tahs 5/8 is not exactly stellar, if they play tahu at 12 and beale at 10, you are creating the biggest defensive hole in S14. The problem with the Tahs pack is that if they get injuries, the wheels will come off real fast….
I suspect that the Tahs will win this one, the brumbies should have gone into the season with the smith at 12, mortock at 13 and aac on the wing, the new centre combination is a failure, its a big ask to go in with the new combo and beat the tahs who are on a high.
March 11th 2009 @ 9:44pm
WorkingClassRugger said | March 11th 2009 @ 9:44pm | Report comment
Muddskipper, I’m not basing the performance of the Brumbies pack on last years performances. Did you see any of the footage of their trial. The Tahs had them in spades. Injury plagued, well Palu has been cleared and TPN is a likely starter. Baxter was 50/50 after the game but he finished the 80 minutes with a calf strain so I expect to see him out there. The only team they dominated was the weak Force pack. Don’t expect miracle come game time.