Wales to defeat Italy comfortably

 

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By James Mortimer, 13 Mar 2009 James Mortimer is a Roar Guru

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 International Rugby, Rugby Union, Six Nations, Wales, Welsh rugby

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As coach of Wales, Warren Gatland had done no wrong. He took the reins of the team at the beginning of the 2008 Six Nations, and against all expectations and bookmaking odds, they not only won the title, but took the Grand Slam.

This was after an horrific 2007, where Wales had lost to Fiji and South Africa to scuttle their World Cup tilt, suffered their worst ever loss to England 62-5 and recorded eleven losses for the year.

For all the men that deserve the title of “the Great Redeemer”, certainly Gatland does.

But a loss to France suddenly has this game looming as a danger match.

Not that any Welshmen worth his salt would be uttering anything but Cymru am byth. But after making nine changes and one positional switch after their loss in Paris, there are ugly murmurs about the Red Dragons.

This is a very good team, but there were two factors when assessing Wales that cast shadows.

The first was were they truly willing to fight hard? To win a battle of attrition, to win a game of rugby where it truly counted – at the all important contact area?

And did they have the character trait that differentiated a good team from a great team? The ability to switch their tactics, the facility to move from Plan A to Plan B?

Against France, both were portended to be true.

On the topic of omens, as they head to Rome, the last time Wales suffered back to back losses was in 2007, when they lost to France, and then Italy.

The reality is that Wales are a good team, but not so good that a loss to Italy is impossible. Many would argue this point based on the fact that Italy has conceded 100 points and 12 tries so far in this Six Nations.

But new captain Alun-Wyn Jones would be nervous about the road to Rome. In two previous visits, the 44 capped Osprey’s lock was part of a Welsh side that suffered disbelieving losses in 2003 and again in 2007.

Despite the numerous changes, this is still a very potent looking Welsh team.

Gavin Henson is recalled to the side and rounds off a backline dripping with natural genius.

The forward pack looks weaker than it has in any other match in this year’s championship, but there is plenty of insurance on the bench, with four of the 2005 Grand Slammers lying in wait.

But it will not be a given against Italy, a nation whose last three matches against Wales stand at 1 win, 1 loss and 1 draw.

For Nick Mallet and his embattled men, there is a huge amount to amend before playing the highest ranked nation in the northern hemisphere.

But, to look at it optimistically, they are simple things.

When playing the English, a wobbly set piece – losing nearly half of their line outs – and lack of intensity at the ruck and subsequent turnovers cost them the match.

Against Ireland, 20 missed tackles, two silly yellow cards and two intercept tries cost them the match. At half time, they were still in the match, before conceding 24 unanswered points in the second half.

But against Scotland, it was not so much in-balance of basic rugby statistics that cost them the match as much as lack of something that Wales has in abundance: X factor and ball playing rugby players.

The Azzuri have wielded a competent enough set piece, and have shown enough in periods to show that they can compete.

But beyond that, it will take a huge amount of Roman passion to record what would be considered a tremendous upset.

Since upsetting Argentina in Cordoba last year, Italy has been unlucky, looking competitive against the Pumas, Wallabies and Pacific Islanders at the close of last year.

But while Mallet has a considerable reputation as a coach, his selection decisions have caused the Italians and himself undue consternation.

Firstly, there was the insane decision to play Italy’s best flanker at scrumhalf against England.

Against Scotland he clearly had not learned his lesson, playing Luke McLean, usually a fullback, at standoff, and Andrea Marcato, nominally a first five, at the back of the three quarter line.

He has made the same choices against Wales, but it is hard to criticise, when there are but a fraction of Test quality players that he had at his disposal as Springbok coach.

It is a judgment match for the Welsh, for not only do they need to win, but they will need to bank the points to ensure that if the title comes down to a differential decision, they have a bigger number than anyone else.

For all the talk though, this is a stung Welsh team, and they will reaffirm their quality against the Italians by some margin.

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