A mate told me a few weeks ago that, for the past few years, a bottom eight team the previous year made the top four the next year. I wasn’t convinced, so I did my own research and found out that it’s true.
Here’s the proof.
1998- Melbourne made the top four after they finished last in 1997.
1999- Brisbnae finished third first after finishing last in 1998.
2000- Melbourne finished third after finishing 14th in 1999.
2001- Richmond and Port Adelaide finished fourth and third respectively after finishing ninth and fourteenth respectively in 2000.
2002- Collingwood finished fourth after finishing ninth in 2001.
2003- Sydney finished fourth after finishing eleventh in 2002.
2004- St Kilda and Geelong finished third and fourth after finishing eleventh and twelfth in 2003.
2005- Adelaide finished first after finishing twelfth in 2004.
2006- Fremantle finished third after finishing tenth in 2005.
2007- Geelong, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne finished first, second and fourth respectively after finishing tenth, twelfth and fourteenth respectively in 2006.
2008- Western Bulldogs and St Kilda finished third and fourth after finishing thirteenth and ninth in 2007.
What does this mean for this year then?
If trends continue, then at least one team from the bottom eight in 2008 will finish 2009 in the top four.
So out of the current teams, which ones are capable of doing it?
You have three realistic chances and two half chances, depending on how the season goes.
The three realistic chances are Richmond, Carlton and Port Adelaide. These teams have juniors who have stepped up or could step up this year and, in Port’s case, they have a team which two years ago made the finals.
The two half chances are Brisbane and Fremantle.
Brisbane because they have Premiership stars and a new coach in Michael Voss, while Fremantle lost a lot of games by under ten points so they have the team that could be a top four contender if they win the tight games.
I don’t believe that Melbourne, West Coast or Essendon have the depth or the capability of making the top four.
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