By Spiro Zavos
April 16th 2009 @ 3:42am
It’s Super 14 crunch time, but for which teams?
The Waratahs' Timana Tahu runs in to score as he's tackled by the Reds' Mark McLinden during their Super 14 match at the Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney, Friday, March 6, 2009. AAP Image/Dean Lewins
I’ve found tipping on this year’s Super 14 tournament to be a nightmare. So last week, I was thrilled to pick as my bonus point victory the Sharks to defeat the Cheetahs, even though they were playing away from home.
It looked all so easy: the top-table side with seven wins would bolt home against a side with no wins and only two tournament points.
It’s history now that the Cheetahs thrashed the Sharks.
The manner of victory was so convincing, with the Cheetahs getting bonus points for four tries, that watching the match, you’d have been hard pressed to work out which was the top side in the tournament and which was the bottom side.
This is the tightest Super 14 tournament, in my opinion.
It seems possible that any one of nine teams – from the Brumbies, Crusaders and Highlanders on 22 points, the Blues 23, the Hurricanes 24, the Waratahs, Bulls and Chiefs 27 and the Sharks 30 – are potential finals teams.
Making this battle at the top of the table even tighter is the fact that the Sharks and the Waratahs are the only sides in this top nine that have yet to have a bye. So, in theory, at least they are even closer to the back of top pack than their points really indicate.
Chris Hickey reckoned some weeks ago that 40 points would guarantee a team a finals position.
For the Sharks and the Waratahs, there are four games and a total of 20 points available. Bonus points in two winning games, or three victories out of four, or two wins and two losing bonus points games, will fit the bill for these teams.
The other members of the top pack have 25 points available to them.
A series of strong performances will be crucial for teams, therefore, wanting to be the top-four breaking away from the pack at the end of ther tournament.
This large dollop of points might have been behind Colin Cooper’s thinking when the Hurricane’s coach predicted that the Western Force, although only on 19 points, were certainties for the finals.
I got an interesting email from a rugby fan a couple of days ago which suggests how the margin between the teams is so thin that a bit of faulty, careless time-keeping, perhaps, might make or break a season.
“Did you happen to note the time keeping during the Western Force game on Friday night? Twice in the latter stages of the game, the time-keepers forgot to restart the clock when play recommenced. The first time was around the 65th minute mark and the second time was about the 73rd minute, when play went from one scrum to another without the clock restarting. The full-time hooter went off when the clock hit 80 minutes, but there were about two minutes of extra time played from those two instances alone.
“I only noticed it as the game was so tight and I found myself watching the time clock. By my reckoning, the game should have finished a lot earlier and, if so, the result might have been quite different.”
Aside from issues like this, another complicating factor has been the use of non-neutral referees.
It’s not as if the referees are biased or anything like that. But teams are more comfortable playing with local referees.
On occasions this season I’ve seen even a bit of jocularity between the local referee and the local team.
As one Roarer noted early on, it’s a matter of justice being seen to be done. Virtually all modern major sports have moved to having neutral referees.
This is to ensure that favouritism or bias can’t be raised against a referee.
I’ve no doubt that several teams have played better with a local referee than with a neutral referee, or when the referee is a local of their opponent.
We can do, and should do, without these complications.
Victor Matfield, after winning most of the Waratahs lineout throws, made the point that the Bulls victory against the Waratahs was worth a ‘double win’ because the Bulls and the Waratahs were head-to-head virtually for a finals position.
This tenth round of the 2009 Super 14 is chockers with ‘double win’ games.
The Blues Vs Highlanders at Eden Park, for instance, will take one of these teams out of the running you’d think. But which team?
The Blues are a strong team at Eden Park and they’re the top scoring side in the tournament. But then, the Highlanders are one of the better defensive sides.
Brumbies Vs Bulls at Canberra is another double win game.
On form you’d have to go for the Bulls. But the Brumbies have something like an 85 percent winning record against South African teams at Canberra. It’s a question of the fluid play of the Brumbies against the simple, muscular play of the Bulls, who will be without their enforcer Bakkies Botha, which will be a big loss for them.
Onto the Hurricanes Vs Stormers at Wellington.
The Hurricanes are the most exasperating team in the tournament. The talent is there, but this side makes so many stupid plays that they give stupid plays a bad name.
They are easily rattled and the selection of Piri Weepu at first five-eighth instead of halfback actually weakens the side rather than strengthens it.
But then, they are at home and did score two tries against the Force in about three minutes to snatch an exciting victory for them.
Reds Vs Lions at Brisbane is the one match in the round where only bragging rights are involved. I’d think that the Reds will carve up the Lions, the way they threatened to do early on against the Highlanders before lapsing into a sort of rugby reverie.
Waratahs Vs Force at Sydney is a match that is crucial for the faint hopes of the Force and important but not crucial, yet, for the Waratahs.
At times, the Force have looked the best of the Australian sides and the Waratahs the worst. But their points tally does not reflect any of this.
You’d have to think that the Waratahs, with 10 wins from the last 11 matches at the SFS, will overpower the Force in the forwards and the backs, finally, will score a couple of tries.
The Waratahs were tryless last week for the first time since in early 2007, which is as worry.
Cheetahs Vs Chiefs at Kimberley promises to be an enthralling match.
The Chiefs can murder sides, but they can, too, be weak in the scrum and lineouts. The Cheetahs have a terrific lineout when Juan Smith is playing, as they demonstrated last week. They’re at home, but the game is a day match, which should suit the Chiefs’ flamboyant style of play.
Sharks Vs Crusaders at Durban is a crunch match for the Crusaders. You’d have to think that they need to win to stay in touch with the top teams. The Sharks will be playing at home, but coming off a thrashing.
So we’ve reach crunch time for the top teams. But the beauty of this year’s tournament is that any result is possible.
I don’t see any game where it is clear that one side can’t possibly lose.
Luckily, journalists are prophets of the past and we’ll be very precise about why certain results went a certain way. But this will have to wait until next Monday.
For now, we know it’s crunch time, but for which teams?
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(25)
LeftArmSpinner said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:18am | Report comment
I agree fully, except that this is more important for the Tahs than “important but not crucial”. As far as comp points go, I agree. However, If things are as flawed as they seem to be at the Tahs, then losing this game will indicate that they have not been addressed. It will drive another dagger through the team’s confidence, further disillusion the supporters, allow others to poke more fun at the Tahs appalling playing tactics and damage the code’s perception further in the heartland. A elite young kid coming thro, having played both codes, will opt for league with this sort of PR. I don’t blame the kid. They are right!!!!!
Spiro Zavos said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:23am | Report comment
The list of referees for the round has come in: Blues-Highlanders, Stu Dickinson (Aus): Brumbies – Bulls, Chris Pollock (NZ): Hurricanes – Stormers, Jonathan Kaplan (SA): Reds – Lions, Keith Brown (NZ): Waratahs – Western Force, James Leckie (Aus): Cheetahs-Chiefs, Nathan Pearce (Aus): Sharks-Crusaders, Mark Lawrence (SA)
Two of the leading NZ teams playing South African teams have South African referees.
young gun said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:28am | Report comment
Yes i would have to agree but im 1 yeas old and play flyhalf or inside center and i’d still play union over league
young gun said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:28am | Report comment
sorry 12 years old
young gun said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:30am | Report comment
oh thank god that kaplan isnt refereing an australian teams match
Jerry said | April 16th 2009 @ 9:29am | Report comment
Ok, I know it’s largely coincidence, but it seems like the Canes have almost always had an SA ref v an SA team and an Aussie ref v an Aussie team. The only neutral I can think of was Goddard in the Bulls game who showed his neutrality by buggering up the game for both teams.
Farmer said | April 16th 2009 @ 10:12am | Report comment
I would have to agree with your email correspondent Spiro. The clock stopped at 60.26 in the Western Force game and did not restart with play. It went on for at least 30-40 seconds before it restarted. Similarly later in the game. There are also occasions in games ( incl at SFS in Waratahs games) when the ref calls time off, but the clock keeps ticking. the reaction time is slow.
At the time, given the result of the Force game being determined after the bell, I wondered if the the sloppy timekeeping had cost the Force the game.
Surely, someone is getting paid to do this job and if they concentrate, it should not be too hard to get it right. If the ref forgets to call time on, surely the clock should not just sit on hold. Similarly, the timekeeper should be concentrating to turn the clock on when play is restarted.
David said | April 16th 2009 @ 10:19am | Report comment
Comment on stupidity and the Hurricanes is very accurate. Has there ever been a team which has such volatility in its performance – both from game to game and within a game? Well-balanced, well-drilled teams with sound defences and good set pieces are odds on to beat the Canes. All they do is defend strongly, disrupt the Canes’ scrum and lineout, wait for the errors and then pounce on turnovers. The lineout is particularly poor and an indictment on Colin Cooper’s supposed strength as a forward coach. Jason Eaton aspires to be an AB lock – but he cannot command the lineout as an aspiring world-class lock should, and lacks the bulk to make the grade in other respects. The scrum is potent some weeks, and dire the next. What is it with Tialata and Schwalger? Yet.. yet..because of the talent of Nonu, Jane, Weepu and So’oialo, they might just make it. Nevertheless, they remain a poorly-drilled team that plays too much dumb footy.
Greg Russell said | April 16th 2009 @ 11:28am | Report comment
I heard on RadioSport NZ this morning that only two teams are unbeaten at home this season: the Sharks and the Bulls. Historically both of these teams are indeed very strong at home.
The Sharks are currently first on the table and have all 4 remaining matches at home, so one would be silly not to bet on them being “minor premiers”.
The Bulls, who are third on the table, play in Canberra this weekend and then have 3 matches at home, before travelling to Durban for their final round-robin match (a prelude of the final?). Especially if the Bulls can beat the Brumbies this weekend, one would really expect them to finish in the top 2. Yes, the Bulls will be without Bakkies Botha, but counterbalancing this is the highly fractured week the Brumbies will be having due to the funeral of Shawn Mackay in Sydney.
So there is a high likelihood of semi-finals being held in Durban and/or Pretoria. Of course it is very hard to see any Australasian team winning a semi-final in either of these venues.
So while I agree that it’s an extremely tight competition this year, for me it is hard to see past either the Sharks or Bulls winning the title in a final played in South Africa.
Lastly, the Chiefs. They are without both of their dynamic wingers, Sivivatu and Masaga, and they have not won a match in South Africa since April 2005. Their match this weekend against the Cheetahs looked like a heaven-sent opportunity to reverse this trend, but last weekend’s win by the Cheetahs changed all that. So to back the Chiefs to go far in this competition requires a big act of faith at this stage.
ohtani's jacket said | April 16th 2009 @ 11:38am | Report comment
The Hurricanes are the New Zealand version of the Waratahs. All they’re missing are the scathing Roar articles.
Having said that, they have an easier run to the semis than the Chiefs, Highlanders or Crusaders, who all have to play a South African leg.
PastHisBest said | April 16th 2009 @ 11:48am | Report comment
>>But then, they are at home and did score two tries against the Force in about three minutes to snatch an exciting victory for them.
Spiro, this is exactly whay the ‘Canes will play like headless chooks this week and throw another game down the gurgler.
James Mortimer said | April 16th 2009 @ 11:57am | Report comment
God, that’s about the third time I’ve heard reference to the Force/Canes timekeeping. The reality is that the Force let two tries in four minutes against a team they had already beaten. Timekeeping is a moot point.
As, realistically, is the referees. No real point in lamenting what has or will happen out of our control.
Regarding the Canes, completely disagree about being rattled. They actually have shown all this season, that they respond well to pressure, in 7 out of 8 games this season, they have dominated statistics, with the exception of lineouts.
Don’t know if stupid rugby is quite the term, as much as – as Ieremia stated this week – lack of patience.
But, I too am wondering about the coaching of Cooper.
As for the Cheetahs game against the Sharks, why were so many people surprised. With a bit of research, people could have found out that the Currie Cup Cheetahs (essentially the same team) were the last South African team to be the Sharks enroute to the Currie Cup premier title.
westy said | April 16th 2009 @ 2:21pm | Report comment
Spiro I agree I believe the Reds will win at home. against the Lions. How many years is this now missing out on the semis for the Reds.?The second strongest catchment for rugby juniors in the country and its weakest franchise. We are a tad Tah centric on here. The plight of the Reds is not good for junior rugby in QLD, our Paytv ratings nor the game as a whole in Australia
Australian rugby needs a rising Red franchise. The longer it remains in the doldrums the more damage is being done to a heartland that actually produces “rugby players”
5 years or more is too long for the second strongest ( and some old locals would say strongest junior hearland in Australia) wallowing in failure for that is what it is. it damages the code in QLD and especially Brisbane and the Gold Coast.
A successful Reds means more to Australian rugby than good year from Brumbies or Force or dare i say the new melbourne franchise. The Brumbies and Force do not add pay TV numbers. QLD do.They also add players.
When QLD rugby people I know start to joke about their beloved Reds you know they are in trouble. There continued failure spells real harm to rugby north of the border and to australian rugby. i do not think people realise the competition in Brisbane they now face at a junior level not from league but football and AFL.
I fail to see how the plight of QLD rugby receives so little attention when it is critical. Have we resigned ourselves to a hopeless franchise representing the second stongest rugby heartland in Australia.
mother teresa said | April 16th 2009 @ 3:03pm | Report comment
westy you make sound sense and its a tragedy that qlds strong catchment of young players has/is not been nurtured.would it be fair to say that too much influence south of the border has promoted the wrong people as coaches/managers etc for mutual benefits of those individuals and depleted the natural strength of the state which always offered a genuine difference in the past.
Mark said | April 16th 2009 @ 3:29pm | Report comment
Westy & MT – I’m amazed at what’s happened to the Reds. I can remember not bothering going to a Canterbury v Qld game in Brisbane during the early/mid 90’s (‘93 I think) as the Reds team was 50% or more of the Wallabies & Canterbury only had a couple of AB’s. Qld won 40-4 or something like that, a real drubbing in those days. What has happened to them in 15 yrs ? You can’t keep blaming Brumbies then Force, or even league as it’s always been there. There must be something going very wrong in the banana state for Qld/Reds to now be almost a push over !
mother teresa said | April 16th 2009 @ 4:12pm | Report comment
yep mark,dark forces south of the border seduced the qld power brokers and it goes on to this day .just look at coaches/managers/reporters all got their hands in the trough mate.
and they know who they are
Harry said | April 16th 2009 @ 5:51pm | Report comment
Westy there is no doubt that the competition between codes in Qld is fierce. That said I’m told by pretty good sources that at junior level and the clubs it is holding its own. Though the war for special talent is incredibly hot, with AFL claiming the winger from last years Australian schoolboys – who went to (renowned rugby nursury) Nudgee of all places! And of course the Broncos have a great talent identification system and the Gold Coast and Melbourne in particualr hoover up Qld talent from union.
In a perverse way it shows the strength of the code in Queensland that it is still churning out the talent and has good roots despite the incredibly disappoinitng performance of the Reds this millenium.
Rather like Australian crickets mid-80’s slump post the Chappells, Marsh and Lillee was extended by 3 or 4 years longer than it should have been when the SA rebel tour took out a good chunk of talent and experience, so the Force continue to ensure Qld bounces along the bottom with no depth – just look at young Qld nurtured players Pocock, Brown, O’Conner, Mitchell and Hockings – all of whom I’m sure would make the current Qld 22.
As you say Westy, its no joy being a Queensland supporter these last 5 years. I posted on what happens in a typical Reds season last weekend and yes, its not pleasant and it doesn’t look like getting better. On day though it will!
Midfielder said | April 16th 2009 @ 7:59pm | Report comment
Harry
Can you define what you mean by holding its own…. that sounds to me like last year we had X & this year we still have X… meaning going backwards as I see it.
Southern Queensland & Northern NSW is the fastest growing area in Australia. Further it is one of the nations wealthiest parts.
The story I hear is the exact opposite from what you hear … my sources are local Sydney park rugby players and administrators… anyway what they tell me is in the growth areas of Queensland RU does not present itself but RL/ Football & AFL are all pushing hard for parks / juniors / support…
They tell me if you measured the number of Queensland Players 15 years ago and then added on the general population growth RU comes a long way short of holding its own… but in established areas they are reasonably fine..
What my park people tell me is that with the Cowboys / Titians / Brisbane Roar/ Gold Coat United / Queensland Fury / New AFL team on the GC / plus at least 1 new RL team within four years years / Plus the appointment of Voss (local boy) to a excellently lead Brisbane Lions, means the Reds are up against it and receive little help from the ARU … hey all this may just be sideline beer talk for all I know but I find it hard to sit down and share a beer with some rusted on hard call RU folk and think they are telling me rubbish… where there is smoke there is fire … A gentle giant of a break away nick named Killer (45 years) told me in his opinion all the other teams I have mentioned above are better run than the Reds … again no idea but Westy makes some real sense in what he says.
MT your post when you said …”"” dark forces south of the border seduced the qld power brokers and it goes on to this day…”"” pay tell provide more .. it’ too teasing.
Guy Smiley said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:15pm | Report comment
James I am a little shocked to hear you say timekeeping is a moot point – I was at that Force game and got a text from my old man in Ireland straight after saying the clock had stopped twice. Yes the mentality and tactics of the Force were suspect but had the clock been attended to properly they would have most likely won the game. Whoever deserved to win is irrelevant, the clock would have beaten the Canes in the end.
Stu James said | April 16th 2009 @ 8:49pm | Report comment
If the Waratahs don’t win against the Force, then they won’t make the finals. Firstly, they still have their bye ahead. Secondly, they don’t have a good record in South Africa, and thirdly they will need to play good rugby to beat the Force – if they don’t finally produce then the form they have shown all season show’s their capabilities for the weeks ahead and all any optimistic talk of their “potential” must be totally disregarded.
It’s a pity the Force didn’t get the win last weekend, and it’s a pity that they don’t have a front row (note the two are linked because the Force lost a crucial scrum with 4 minutes to go when the Canes wheeled them). In my view they are the only Aussie side capable of pushing for a semi spot and winning a semi.
It’s a weird season when you’re a New South Welshman and would prefer to watch the Reds, Force and Brumbies…
Brendo said | April 16th 2009 @ 10:34pm | Report comment
Stu – I don’t know the actual statistics but I would think the Waratahs track record on the road is better in South Africa than compared to in New Zealand and against the other Australian teams. They often went to SA early in this decade at the start of the season and picked up maximum points or close to.
The Waratahs will win on Saturday night against the Force, the big loss to the Bulls will be the reality check they needed. Only an inspired Matt Giteau can prevent a 10 to 15 point winning margin.
ohtani's jacket said | April 17th 2009 @ 11:00pm | Report comment
The Blues’ defence is starting to improve and so is their forward play. If they’d just play a little smarter with the ball in hand they could be dangerous. Maybe not this year, but in the next few seasons. Especially if they get a new pivot.
Congrats to the Brumbies.
Stu James said | April 18th 2009 @ 9:23pm | Report comment
Waratahs? GOOOOOOOOONE.
Knives Out said | April 18th 2009 @ 9:50pm | Report comment
What a hideously monotone game. The atmosphere was nonexistant. I’m quite upset that I’ve lost an hour and a half of my life that I’ll never get back.
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2009 @ 11:24pm | Report comment
It ended up being a good weekend for the NZ sides.
Interesting news about Carter’s long rumoured move to the Blues.