Lions’ lack of ruckmen will prove too much

The Cats maintained their unbeaten start to the season with a 48-point win over Adelaide in a high-quality contest at AAMI Stadium last weekend. The Lions started brightly against Collingwood but faded badly in the second half, eventually going down by 17 points.

Michael Voss’ men have failed to string together wins so far this season and find themselves in eighth place with a 2-2 win-loss record.

VENUE and TIME: Skilled Stadium, Sunday 26 April, 1.10pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 33, Geelong 16, Brisbane Lions 16, Draw 1

LAST TIME: Geelong 15.15 (105) def Brisbane Lions 11.12 (78), Round 7 2008 at Skilled Stadium

RECENT HISTORY: Geelong has won its past five against Brisbane.

MEDICAL ROOM: Geelong welcomes back veteran Darren Milburn who was a late withdrawal last weekend with a back injury but will be without tagger Cameron Ling (Achilles) for three to four weeks. Skipper Tom Harley (knee) will miss at least another week while ruckman Brad Ottens is expected to miss at least a month with a knee injury. Josh Hunt (knee), fellow defender Matthew Egan (foot) and youngster Mitch Brown (broken leg) will miss the remainder of the season. For the Lions, ruckman Jamie Charman will be sidelined for four to six weeks with an ankle injury. He joins fellow ruckman Matthew Leuenberger (knee) on the injury list.

KEY MATCH-UPS: Troy Selwood vs. Gary Ablett

Ablett was at his devastating best in the win over the Crows, racking up a staggering 46 possessions and booting three goals.

The Brownlow medal favourite is damaging with his ability to win the football at the stoppages, break the lines and kick goals.

If the Lions are going to be any chance of securing the four premiership points on Sunday they will need to shut-down Ablett’s creative run.

Selwood is often given the task of tagging the opposition’s best midfielder and looms as the obvious candidate to run with Ablett in what shapes as being a pivotal contest.

Ablett is capable of turning a game on its head in the space of a quarter so Selwood will need to switched on and not give the classy 24-year-old any time or space all day.

Max Rooke vs. Simon Black

Despite missing all of the pre-season Black has been one of his side’s most influential players in the first four rounds, averaging 23 disposals per game.

The 2002 Brownlow medallist leads the Lions for clearances and is second for first possessions.

Geelong will be keen to limit his effectiveness in close and prevent him from getting Brisbane’s running game going with his ability to find the likes of Jed Adock, Luke Power, Travis Johnstone and co. in space with his clean use of the football by hand.

Ling would normally get the job on Black but with him on the sidelines Geelong coach Mark Thompson will most likely give Rooke the task of running with the classy Brisbane midfielder.

Expect Rooke who is strong overhead to push forward at every available opportunity in a bid to make Black accountable.

Matthew Scarlett vs. Daniel Bradshaw

Bradshaw failed to fire a shot in the loss to the Magpies, managing just seven possessions and no goals.

The Lions will need him to lift on Sunday if they are going to be any chance of securing a valuable win away from home but his task won’t be an easy one as he will be matched up by the Cats best defender in Scarlett.

The last time these two sides met in round seven last year Scarlett did a superb blanketing job on Bradshaw, restricting the Brisbane forward to just three possessions and one goal.

If Scarlett is able to do a similar job this weekend the Lions won’t be able to kick a big enough score to overcome a Geelong side that is the most attacking outfit in the competition.

Expect Michael Voss to start Bradshaw further up the ground and drag Scarlett away from the defensive 50 where he is at his most damaging with his rebounding ability.

Mitch Clark vs. Mark Blake

With Leuenberger and Charman on the sidelines the Lions will be relying on Clark to do most of the work in the ruck.

Brisbane don’t need Clark to be a dominant force in the ruck but they do need him to at least provide a contest and apply some body pressure on Blake who is ranked fourth in the AFL for hit outs per game.

If Clark fails to provide a contest the Lions will struggle to get the hands on the football at the stoppages and provide their star forwards in Jonathan Brown and Bradshaw with enough quality supply to kick a winning score.

Don’t be surprised if Brisbane opts to use the versatile Jared Brennan as a third man up in the ruck around the ground in order to prevent Blake from tapping the football down the throat of Ablett, James Bartel, Joel Selwood and co.

VERDICT: Brisbane has the class in the midfield to match Geelong and the forwards to worry a Cats side that is missing three of its first-choice defenders but their lack of a quality ruckman and inability to play four quarters of consistent football will prove to be costly. Cats by 37 points.

GEELONG v BRISBANE LIONS
GEELONG
B: Andrew Mackie, Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn
HB: Joel Corey, Harry Taylor, Max Rooke
C: Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, David Wojcinski
HF: James Kelly, Cameron Mooney, Mathew Stokes
F: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson
Foll: Mark Blake, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett
I/C: Shane Mumford, Travis Varcoe, Shannon Byrnes, David Johnson
Emg: Tom Lonergan, Nathan Djerrkura, Ryan Gamble,

In: Milburn, D. Johnson
Out: Cameron Ling (achilles), Tom Lonergan

BRISBANE LIONS
B: Ashley McGrath, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Jason Roe, Joel Macdonald, Josh Drummond
C: Jared Brennan, Simon Black, Daniel Rich
HF: Michael Rischitelli, Jonathan Brown, Justin Sherman
F: Lachlan Henderson, Daniel Bradshaw, Luke Power
Foll: Mitch Clark, Travis Johnstone, Jed Adcock
I/C: Bradd Dalziell, Tom Collier, Troy Selwood, James Polkinghorne
Emg: Albert Proud, Scott Harding, Pearce Hanley

In: Henderson, Polkinghorne, Collier
Out: Jamie Charman (knee), Tim Notting, Cheynee Stiller

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