As the lights went out at North Harbour stadium during Saturday afternoon’s game between the Queensland Reds and Auckland Blues, I commented to Miss Sports that I had my opening joke for this week’s Super 14 column.
The joke I was going to make was that the Reds are so bad now that even the Gods don’t want to watch them.
Of course, then the Reds went ahead and ruined all that by actually winning, and wining pretty well at that. Typical Reds really, even when they win they find a way to be disappointing.
With eleven rounds complete and with every team now having had their bye, I decided that this was an excellent time to assess how the competition is shaping up and perhaps even engage in some reckless conjecture about where it is going.
The Super 14 has been extensively criticised this season (and not without some cause) for being dull and error strewn.
The irony is that even as the quality of play seems to have dropped, the intrigue of the competition seems to have increased. With three rounds remaining and with the competition’s perennial heavyweights, the Crusaders, laid low, there are five teams with a genuine chance to host a semi-final and a further four that could force their way into the finals.
However, before we get to the contenders we should spend a few moments with the pretenders. Or as they are also referred to – the Australian teams.
Barring some sort of unprecedented divine intervention we will not see an Australian team in the semi finals. Nor should we.
The Australian teams have been very poor this season.
The Waratahs started the season surprisingly well. Far better than any pundit predicted. But alas they were revealed to be an illusion. Their early successes were not the harbinger of success to follow that many Waratahs’ supporters dreamed of (myself included), but rather the product of good fortune.
The Reds have provided the most entertainment value of almost any team in the competition. Regrettably for Reds fans, much of that entertainment was in the Reds being crushed by superior teams.
Like the Blues and the Lions, though, the Reds should be congratulated for at least trying to use the width of the field to score trys.
Which brings me to …
The Brumbies fairytale was firmly extinguished in Wellington as the injury crisis and general lack of creativity in the backline came back to haunt them.
Hopefully the return of Matt Giteau next season will engender a backline that attempts to make use of the opportunities created by the excellent loose forwards rather than a backline intent on endlessly pursuing the mindless slant back inside runs.
As for the Force, despite the ‘grand slam’ over the other Australian teams, it is the choke jobs against the Crusaders and Hurricanes that will define their season.
This team faces grave peril over the next three seasons if they continue to haemorrhage quality players, and for the sake of Australian rugby depth, we can only hope they land a world class fly-half such as Peter Grant or Derrick Hougaard to complement James O’Connor and keep the boy wonder in Perth.
So with the chaff discarded, let us now consider the wheat.
Somehow the Hurricanes are actually top of the table after eleven rounds. To be honest, I actually had to check that and then double check it.
How is it possible that the Hurricanes, who are perennial disappointments, can be doing so well?
Remember, this is a team who have used ten different line-ups in ten games. A team that cannot decide whether Piri Weepu is a scrum-half, a fly-half, or a substitute. A team that has been down by thirteen or more with less than ten minutes remaining and still won the game – twice!
It is quite a remarkable season, and with great escapes against the Lions and Force, one would think ‘Canes fans could be forgiven for thinking everything is coming up Nonu.
But this is the Hurricanes. They will find a way to lose.
They have been pre-season favourites for many years and only have the failure in the fog in 2005 to show for it. That being said, get to a TV early this Friday afternoon because the Hurricanes game against the Blues at 5:30pm Australian time should be a cracker.
Despite being written off by many in the mainstream media as ‘kick chase frauds’, the Bulls have survived injuries and suspensions to key players to find themselves second on the table and with two games at Loftus remaining.
The win over the Chiefs was a key turning point for both teams.
For the Bulls it ensures that they have a chance to host a final at Lofus. It almost goes without saying that if the Bulls do host a final that they will win that final.
Loftus is the single most intimidating home field in the competition.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have slipped to fourth after the loss in Pretoria.
The Chiefs are the toughest team to get a read on in the top half of the table. Even in defeat to the Bulls the Chiefs looked good, and with their final two games in Hamilton, the Chiefs should finish in the top four.
However, I still believe that the Sharks are the team to beat despite the faltering performances against the Cheetahs and Crusaders, which has dropped them back to third on the ladder.
With three home remaining and with key players Ruan Pienaar and Jean Deysel due to return from injury, the Sharks will be reasonably comfortable with their current position on the ladder.
Of the remaining contenders, only the Blues look like a genuine threat to make the finals and that is only based on their ability to score points.
The Waratahs are in the Republic and play two games on the Highveld.
The Brumbies have a slightly easier draw, with one home game remaining. However, the playing ranks are stretched very thin now and how do they shrug off the thrashing they received in the Cake Tin in Wellington?
As for the Force and the Crusaders, they are simply too many points behind at this stage (and neither team has an especially friendly draw either).
All things considered, I remain steadfast in my prediction that the Sharks will take home the Super Rugby crown.
I am confident that the Hurricanes will find a new, inventive way to choke and that the Chiefs will not have the will power for what is a likely semi-final in the Republic.
It will be a Sharks Vs Bulls final, and as with last season’s Currie Cup, it will be the Sharks in a thriller.
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May 1st 2009 @ 11:16am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 1st 2009 @ 11:16am | Report comment
Geez, Mr Sport, you and Miss Sport must have an exciting time of it….. and she was really listening when you made your announcement about the joke for the column????
anyway, I too suspect that no aussie team will make the semis and certainly not a home semi. so that’s it until Dingo comes in and sorts out the wheat from the chaff and molds a competitive team from the scraps.
May 1st 2009 @ 4:08pm
Hemjay said | May 1st 2009 @ 4:08pm | Report comment
I’m a Canes supporter and to be honest I’m bloody nervous, for too long this team has promised to deliver but failed.
The Western Force are my pick of the Australian teams to make the finals. I think the force has been snubbed by the rugby media especially here on the east coast. Its like no life can exist outside of the three eastern seaboard states.