Round 12 preview of the Super 14 (all times AEST).
FRIDAY, May 1
HURRICANES (1st, 34pts) v BLUES (5th, 30pts) at Westpac Stadium, Wellington at 5.35pm
Last meeting: Blues 19-17 in Auckland, May 2008
A no brainer on paper. Ladder-leading Hurricanes are on a roll and were brilliant in demolishing the Brumbies 56-7 last week. The flaky Blues were awful in defeat to the Reds and injury problems mean rookie openside flanker Tom Chamberlain debuts in a makeshift back-row featuring converted lock Kurtis Haiu. A word of warning though. The Blues only seem to fire up after an embarrassing loss and the Auckland-Wellington rivalry will ensure this is hard fought. Two exciting backlines should make this game a beauty. Watch for halfback Piri Weepu coming off the Hurricanes bench. He was super-sharp last week.
Centrebet: Hurricanes $1.30, Blues $3.55
Tip: Hurricanes by 10
LIONS (12th, 19) v CRUSADERS (8th, 27) at Ellis Park, Johannesburg at 11pm
Last meeting: Crusaders 31-6 in Christchurch, April 2008
The Crusaders are desperate for a bonus point win to keep their title defence alive after a shock loss to the Cheetahs and have lost superstar Richie McCaw to injury. They may have paid for resting front-liners Isaac Ross, Kieran Read, Andy Ellis and Leon MacDonald last week but they’re back and the Crusaders should have too much quality for the feisty but patchy Lions. The hosts regain Springbok centre Jacque Fourie from injury but are without prolific tryscorer Henno Mentz.
Centrebet: Crusaders $1.62, Lions $2.30
Tip: Crusaders by 8
SATURDAY, May 2
CHEETAHS (14th, 11) v NSW WARATAHS (7th, 28) at Bloemfontein at 1.05am
Last meeting: Waratahs 23-19 in Sydney, March 2008
The Waratahs waited till their home games were over before deciding they were desperate enough to risk becoming entertainers in the hunt for bonus point wins to stay in the semis race. Lachie Turner moves to fullback and Kurtley Beale to inside centre in the search for attacking spark. The big question is can they produce it now? If they can home fans will ask why it took so long. The Cheetahs may be last but they beat a Crusaders side which gambled by resting leading players last week and they may fancy their chances against the new-look Tahs midfield of Beale and Timana Tahu.
Centrebet: Waratahs $1.75, Cheetahs $2.05
Tip: Waratahs by 10
QUEENSLAND REDS (13th, 18) v BRUMBIES (9th, 27) at Suncorp stadium, Brisbane at 7.40pm
Last meeting: Brumbies 43-11 in Canberra, March 2008
The Brumbies have stuck by novice playmaker Matt Toomua for the must-win clash despite last week’s record 56-7 loss to the Hurricanes. He’s the only man to stay in the same position in a reshuffled backline which includes Stirling Mortlock on the wing. The return of big-kicking fullback Mark Gerrard is a major boost for the ACT side who have struggled for field position without him. Queensland have only scored one Super rugby win from 14 matches against the Brumbies. Their hopes of a second received a blow with Hugh McMeniman (ankle) ruled out but they have Test winger Peter Hynes back from injury. The Reds’ biggest challenge will be to win the battle of the breakdown against George Smith without a noted ball scavenger. Berrick Barnes has been named at inside centre but is again likely to call the shots from first-receiver.
Centrebet: Brumbies $1.80, Reds $2
Tip: Brumbies by 1
SHARKS (4th, 31) V HIGHLANDERS (10th, 23) at Absa Stadium, Durban at 11pm
Last meeting: Sharks 19-17 in Dunedin, April 2008
The former high-flying Sharks have stalled with successive upset losses to the Crusaders and Cheetahs but should put their title tilt back on track with a big win over the unfancied Highlanders. While the New Zealanders have been hard to beat in 2009, a series of tough matches and a trip to South Africa may take their toll. The Highlanders’ unlikely play-off quest ended with their last-start home loss to the Stormers. The scrum battle will be a feature of the clash with the sides boasting two of the best front-rows in the business. The Sharks will be boosted by the return from injury of playmaker Ryan Pienaar who will start at five-eighth, pushing Frans Steyn back to No.12.
Centrebet: Sharks $1.14, Highlanders $5.75
Tip: Sharks by 19
SUNDAY, MAY 3
BULLS (2nd, 33) v WESTERN FORCE (6th, 28) at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria at 1.05am
Last meeting: Force 15-14 in Perth, April 2008
Another Australian side with their season on the line, the Force will fancy their chances of a maiden finals apperarance if they can be the first team to beat the Bulls at home in 2009. John Mitchell has recalled abrasive No.8 Richard Brown in a huge boost while Pek Cowan returns to the front-row after a well-earned rest. The South Africans are in excellent shape but have found the Perth side hard to topple in the past. They’ve made just one change with Jaco Pretorius rotating with JP Nel at outside centre. Skipper Nathan Sharpe faces a huge battle at lineout time with counterpart Victor Matfield and needs reliable hooker Tai McIsaac to hit his marks.
Centrebet: Bulls $1.34, Force $3.25
Tip: Bulls by 3
STORMERS (11th, 19) v CHIEFS (3rd, 32) at Newlands, Cape Town at 3.10am
Last meeting: Stormers 35-26 in Hamilton, March 2008
Without injured strike weapons Sivivatu and Masaga and gun halfback Brendon Leonard, the third-placed Chiefs did well to get a bonus point in a 33-27 loss to the Bulls in Pretoria and the Stormers aren’t in that class. The two Chiefs wingers and Leonard are still missing but so are the most influential Stormers, centre Jean de Villers and lock Andries Bekker. The 11th placed Stormers have had a rest since a long and ordinary road trip and this smells like an even scrap where a moment of brilliance from skilled loose forward rivals Luke Watson and Liam Messam could decide things.
Centrebet: Chiefs $1.88, Stormers $1.93
Tip: Chiefs by 3
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May 1st 2009 @ 10:28am
Gordo said | May 1st 2009 @ 10:28am | Report comment
anyone – who is going to win, reds or brumbies?
May 1st 2009 @ 10:42am
Brett McKay said | May 1st 2009 @ 10:42am | Report comment
hard to say Gordo, I thought the Reds would have started favourites, to be honest, but it will be as tight as suggested above. And the way they’re both playing currently, a 15-11 scoreline is just as likely as 38-31 (and yes, I deliberately didn’t pick a winner!)
McMeniman out for Qld is a blow, but Barnes is on song at 10. Though having said that, Cooper is still having his moments at 10, including a sensational pass to put McLinden through a gap from a scrum last week, for Barnes try. It was as good as Shepherd’s try off the scrum against the Brumbies back in March.
Fairbanks coming back for the Brumbies is a plus, as they’ve definitely missed Gerrard’s kicking too.
Could be quite an entertaining game actually….
May 1st 2009 @ 11:08am
arthur rightus said | May 1st 2009 @ 11:08am | Report comment
Reds are a special in my book. I simply cannot fathom how a side that had 8 tries put on them the previous week can be favourite playing away against a side that beat one of the form sides of the comp last week. Sure the Canes were white hot but 8 tries!! The 13-1 record in the Brumbies favour could be the only possible reason but this Brumbies side does not have the firepower of previous years and while the Reds have been hot & cold this year they do have points in them. Barnes put on a clinic last week & I expect much the same from him again moving between 10 & 12. Mortlock has been a shadow of his former self this year & if the Wallaby selectors have an any nuts he should not make the side in front of, close to the player of the tournament in Digby Ioane.
May 1st 2009 @ 11:11am
Jerry said | May 1st 2009 @ 11:11am | Report comment
Arthur – I agree with you, and it was a good win for the Reds last week but the Blues aren’t ‘one of the form sides in the comp’, they’ve blown hot and cold all year. A form side doesn’t give up 50 points twice.
May 1st 2009 @ 11:18am
arthur rightus said | May 1st 2009 @ 11:18am | Report comment
Granted they have been awfully inconsistent but coming off two strong wins going into last weeks game I would suggest they were “in form”. You could just as easily say the Force are one of the form sides of the comp….at the moment, which is probably what I should have stipilated re. the Blues.
May 1st 2009 @ 11:45am
reds fan said | May 1st 2009 @ 11:45am | Report comment
Brett, I’m pretty sure that was a Barnes cut out to Mclinden. He then backed up to be on the inside to take the pass from Mclinden. Was lovely to watch.
This is a tough one to tip. I hope the Reds have learnt something from beating top-of-the-tables sharks and then slumping to three defeats. I expect they will be pressing hard to break their back-to-back hoodoo. They might have also learnt from last week, that its the work up front that gives them the space for their backline.
But as a game-going, season pass holding fan I’ve had my hopes dashed quite a few times…. but as is my duty… I’m backing the Reds. This could be their watershed. (was that too much??? have i jinxed them??????)
May 1st 2009 @ 11:59am
James Mortimer said | May 1st 2009 @ 11:59am | Report comment
Reds by 10.
Game of the round is Blues V Canes, I wrote a snapshot on the game for the NZRU earlier this week
http://www.rss14.co.nz/index.cfm?layout=showS14News&newsArticle=9918
Interesting to see their teams on paper, Blues have eight All Blacks in their starting XV.
Could even be game of the comp…..
May 1st 2009 @ 12:11pm
Brett McKay said | May 1st 2009 @ 12:11pm | Report comment
Reds fan, I’ll happily stand corrected, but I’m pretty confident Cooper threw the pass. Barnes (and possibly Ioane) was cut out, the ball landed on McLinden’s chest who found himself a gap of Grand Canyon proportions, he then drew the fullback superbly and Barnes, who maintained his line the whole time, had an uninterupted run to the posts. Great try, recommended viewing if it can be found on YouTube or something…
May 1st 2009 @ 12:13pm
reds fan said | May 1st 2009 @ 12:13pm | Report comment
check out the match report and then watch the vision.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25385565-5003411,00.html
May 1st 2009 @ 12:20pm
Ben C said | May 1st 2009 @ 12:20pm | Report comment
I watches a replay of the game yesterday and I am sure it was Barnes who threw the pass and then backed up to score the try.