By Tony Keen
May 2nd 2009 @ 2:49am
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Bombers to maul the Lions
Essendon has won its past three against Brisbane, but all of those wins came at Etihad Stadium. The Bombers have not defeated the Lions at the Gabba since round 8, 2000.
FORM: Brisbane has lost their past two matches. They were overrun by Collingwood before being thumped to the tune of 93 points by Geelong at Skilled Stadium last Sunday. The Lions have won two of their first five matches. Essendon came back from the dead to defeat Collingwood by five points in a classic contest at the MCG on Anzac Day. The Bombers currently occupy sixth place on the ladder with a 3-2 win-loss record.
MEDICAL ROOM: Brisbane will be without midfielder Bradd Dazliell for four to six weeks after the prolific ball winner strained his posterior cruciate ligament in the loss to the Cats. Ruckmen Jamie Charman (ankle) and Matthew Luenberger (knee) will miss at least three and twelve weeks respectively.
Small forward Rhan Hooper will be sidelined for at least another week with an ankle injury while Tom Collier (AC joint) will miss two to three weeks. For the Bombers, ruckman David Hille is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the win over the Magpies.
Midfielder Mark McVeigh (ankle) will miss after being a late withdrawal on Anzac Day while young defender Michael Hurley (quadriceps) Kyle Reimers (quadriceps), Brent Prismall (knee), Hayden Skipworth (hamstring) and Andrew Welsh (ankle) are unavailable.
KEY MATCH-UPS:
Adam McPhee vs. Jonathan Brown
Brown played a lone hand up forward against Geelong last weekend, booting three of his side’s five goals.
The Brisbane skipper looms as the main danger man for Essendon given his recent record against the Bombers – he has kicked 24 goals in five matches.
McPhee did a superb blanketing job on Travis Cloke last weekend, restricting the Collingwood forward to just one goal.
Expect McPhee to be given the task of matching up on Brown on Saturday night in what will be a pivotal duel in determining the outcome of this match.
If Brown is going to be any chance of helping his side kick a winning score he will need his midfield to lift their rating at the stoppages and be cleaner and smarter with their use of the football going inside 50 – something which they failed to do in the loss to the Cats.
Daniel Merrett vs. Matthew Lloyd
The last time these two sides met in round 15 last year Lloyd booted four goals to help lift his side to a 37-point win.
Lloyd, who needs just one goal to reach 900 career goals, will be keen to have a big game after failing to kick a major in the win over the Magpies.
The Essendon skipper will head into this clash with some confidence given that he has booted eight goals in his past two matches against the Lions.
Merrett has always been given the job on Lloyd and it won’t be any different on Saturday night.
The 24-year-old is regarded as one of the best spoilers in the AFL so the Bombers will need to be quick and clean with their movement of their football to give Lloyd the best chance of having an impact.
Henry Slattery vs. Simon Black
Black was one of his side’s best in the loss to Geelong with a team-high 24 possessions – 16 of which came by hand.
The 2002 Brownlow medallist played a key role in the Lions’ last win over the Bombers in round two, 2006, racking up a game-high 33 possessions.
Black helps get Brisbane going with his ability to win the football at the stoppages and dish it off by hand to the likes of Luke Power, Travis Johnstone, Daniel Rich and co. in space.
Slattery has been given some big defensive assignments so far this season and will most likely be given the task of tagging Black.
Essendon will need Slattery to not give Black any time or space otherwise he will punish them with his ability to find teammates in space by hand and also deliver the football cleanly inside 50.
Mitch Clark vs. Patrick Ryder
Brisbane was well beaten in the ruck last weekend with the Cats winning the hit outs 65-16.
With Charman and Leuenberger on the sidelines for an extended period, the Lions will be relying on Clark to do the majority of the work in the ruck.
Ryder stepped up in the absence of injured ruckman David Hille last weekend, helping himself to 16 possessions, 27 hit outs, 13 tackles and one goal in a performance that earned him the Anzac Day medal.
With the Lions lacking a recognised ruckman Ryder could well shine again on Saturday night.
Brisbane will need Clark to apply plenty of body pressure and at least provide a contest in the ruck otherwise his midfielders will struggle to get their hands on the football as they did in the loss to Geelong.
VERDICT: Brisbane will undoubtedly come out firing after their abysmal performance against the Cats but their lack of pace will be exposed by an Essendon side that boasts the likes of Alwyn Davey, Jason Winderlich, Andrew Lovett and Leroy Jetta.
Bombers by 19 points.
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Tom said | May 2nd 2009 @ 7:47am | Report comment
Lower ranked teams like Essendon tend to struggle to back up from a big win like last week. Particularly when they have to travel interstate.
Bradshaw usually gets some goals against Essendon.
Andrew said | May 7th 2009 @ 12:42am | Report comment
Great prediction.