Blues a chance to break Hawks’ winning streak

Hawthorn has won the past five clashes between these two sides by an average of 51 points.

FORM: Hawthorn remained in touch with the top eight with a hard-fought 18-point win over West Coast in slippery conditions at Aurora Stadium last Saturday.

The reigning premiers occupy ninth place on the ladder with a 2-3 win-loss record. Carlton bounced back from consecutive losses to Essendon and Sydney with a 43-point demolition of the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium.

The result saw the Blues move to third place with a 3-2 win-loss record.

MEDICAL ROOM: Hawthorn welcomes back Brent Guerra and Michael Osborne from hamstring injuries but will be without Stephen Gilham (knee) and Grant Birchall (broken thumb) for at least another one to two weeks. Clinton Young will miss with a hamstring injury sustained in the win over the Eagles while Trent Croad (foot), Rick Ladson (knee) and Xavier Ellis (foot) are unavailable.

For the Blues, Chris Johnson will miss at least four weeks with a quad injury while ruckman Sam Jacobs (foot) will be sidelined for six weeks. Andrew Walker (shoulder), Robert Warnock (stress fractures) and Adam Bentick (knee) are sidelined indefinitely.

KEY MATCH-UPS:
Andrew Carrazzo vs. Sam Mitchell
Mitchell was instrumental in the Hawks’ win over the Eagles with a game-high 40 possessions.

The Hawthorn skipper was used across half-back against West Coast but will most likely return to the midfield for Saturday afternoon’s clash.

The last time these two sides met in round 22 last year Mitchell was among his side’s best with 28 disposals and six inside 50’s.

If the Blues are going to be any hope of containing Hawthorn’s forward line they will need to quell the influence of Mitchell who helps get his side going by winning the football at the stoppages and using it cleanly by hand to find his teammates in space.

Carrazzo played a key role in last weekend’s win – he helped himself to 15 touches and one goal but more importantly he quelled the influence of Bulldogs playmaker Lindsay Gilbee.

Expect Carrazzo to be given the task of running with Mitchell in what will be a pivotal duel.

Carrazzo will need to pay close attention to Mitchell at the stoppages and not give him any time or space.

He will also need to get his hands on the football and use it cleanly in order to make Mitchell accountable.

Thomas Murphy vs. Brendan Fevola
When these two sides met in round 22 last year Fevola played a lone hand up forward, booting seven of Carlton’s 12 goals.

The Blues no longer solely rely on Fevola to kick them to a winning score but keeping him quiet will go a long way towards securing the four premiership points for the Hawks.

With Gilham and Croad still on the sidelines Murphy will most likely be given first crack at the Blues spearhead.

Fevola is at his most damaging when leading into space so Hawthorn will need to apply immense pressure all over the ground and deny Carlton the use of the corridor.

Don’t be surprised if the Hawks use Luke Hodge as a loose man in defence to clog up the space Fevola leads into.

Chance Bateman vs. Marc Murphy
Murphy was among his side’s best when these two sides met in the final round of the home-and-away season last year, racking up a game-high 36 possessions, seven marks and five inside 50’s in a performance that earned him the two Brownlow medal votes.

The 21-year-old was influential in the win over the Bulldogs last weekend with 25 disposals, one goal and seven inside 50’s.

If the Hawks are going to be any hope of containing Fevola and co. they will need to prevent the likes of Murphy from delivering the football cleanly inside 50.

Bateman did a superb blanketing job on West Coast star Daniel Kerr last weekend and looms as the obvious candidate to run with Murphy.

Hawthorn will need Bateman to break the lines and hurt Murphy going the other way.

Jarrad Waite vs. Lance Franklin
When these two sides met in round 22 Franklin booted four goals to break the 100-goal barrier.

Last year’s Coleman medallist has struggled to have his usual impact so far this season but could well explode on Saturday.

Waite has the height and athletic capabilities to match Franklin and will most likely be given the unenviable task of matching up on the Hawthorn star.

The Blues were relentless with their pressure last weekend, applying 60 tackles for the match.

They will need to play with the same level of intensity on Saturday if they are going to prevent Franklin and co. from receiving quality supply.

VERDICT: This is arguably Carlton’s best chance to end a Hawthorn winning streak that dates back to 2005. The Hawks are still without several key players and while they got the four premiership points against the Eagles they were far from convincing and will need to take their game to another level if they are going to overcome a Blues side on the rise. In what shapes as being a high-scoring affair, the emotion surrounding the death of former president Richard Pratt should be enough to get Carlton over the line.

Blues by 15 points.

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