Super 14 final round held in Shark infested waters

Columnist

By Spiro Zavos, 13 May 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert

Tagged:: Brumbies, Rugby Union, Sharks, Super Rugby, Waratahs

Related coverage

The Waratahs Wycliff Palu dives over the Sharks Odwa Ndungane to score - AAP Image/Dean Lewins

Greg Growden in the Sydney Morning Herald has consulted his ouija board and has been told that the final four teams in the 2009 Super 14 tournament for the knockout finals will be the Chiefs, the Hurricanes, the Bulls and the Crusaders.

I think from this that the spirits are suggesting that the Bulls will lose to the Sharks at Durban: and that the Chiefs, the Hurricanes and the Crusaders will all win.

The ARU has helpfully put out statistics relating to the plight or possible progress of the two remaining Australian teams, the ACT Brumbies and the NSW Waratahs, that have a chance of winning a finals spot.

The Brumbies are 37 points, fifth on differentials (+9). A maximum five-points at Hamilton against the Chiefs will get them into the final, “if the Chiefs are simultaneously denied any championship points.”

This is a big ‘if’ when you look at the statistics.

The Chiefs have won eight matches and lost four. All of those four losses have been within seven points. This is the best win and within seven points loss record of any team in the tournament.

This statistic suggests that the Chiefs either win their matches, or get very close to doing so.

The Brumbies are playing at Hamilton. They will be confronted with a full house. Their away record is nowhere near as impressive this season nor historically as their home record.

It will be a tremendous result for the Brumbies, therefore, to defeat the Chiefs by scoring four or more and keeping the Chiefs to no bonus points.

The Waratahs are on 36 points and seventh on differentials +24.

This is a difficult position for the Waratahs to win a place in the finals.

As I pointed out in the SMH on Tuesday, the irony here is that the attritional style they have played this season is much better suited to finals rugby than the round robin part of the tournament, where bonus points for four tries are basically essential to earn.

According to the ARU’s summary: “Even if the ‘Tahs win in Johannesburg on Friday night and secure the prerequisite five championship points, an anxious wait is in store both to see whether they qualify for the semi-finals or not, and then where.”

It is possible for the Waratahs to get their five points and still miss out if all the top teams, aside from the Bulls, win. Of all the seven sides in contention, only the Brumbies (+9) have a worse Points Differential than the Waratahs.

The Sharks and the Waratahs, too, have the lowest number of four-try results (2) than the other five leading teams. There is some doubt, perhaps, if the Waratahs can score four tries or more against the Lions who will be playing at home.

My view is that they will.

The first match of the round will effectively decide the fate of the Brumbies.

If they defeat the Chiefs and there are no bonus points for either team, both teams will be on 41 points. But the Chiefs have a Points Differential of 99 points. It is difficult to believe that they could lose by 90+ points.

The last match of the round between the Sharks and the Bulls allows both teams to know, according to the ARU, “exactly what is required to achieve” a finals position.

The Sharks are on 36 points, the same as the Waratahs.

They do have a better Points Differential (+44) than the Waratahs or the Crusaders (+ 31). But it seems unlikely for them, and the Waratahs, to have the results fall in a totally unpredictable way to allow them to make the finals.

The Bulls on 42 points and Points Differential of +66 have the advantage of knowing that whatever happens in any of the matches, including theirs against the Sharks, that they are in the finals.

The big issue for the Bulls will be where they are going to play in the finals.

A victory against the Sharks gives him a home semi-final, but not necessarily a home final, if they win the semi-final. The Chiefs (+99) and the Hurricanes (+92) both have much better Points Differentials than the Bulls.

In summary, therefore, there are so many variable outcomes available that looking to the other side for guidance might be as good a way of predicting what will happen as any.

But what a way to end the round robin of the tournament with a crucial first up match, crucial matches throughout the weekend, and the finals clincher the last match of the round.

Makes you wonder if the schedule organiser had his ouija board out when preparing the match list.

Enjoy sports? Enjoy a bargain? All Sports Online has your favourite sporting brands at up to 70% off. Online only, premium quality sporting goods and merchandise at discounted prices. Get a deal now.

The Crowd Says (25) | Page 1 of Comments

James Mortimer said | May 13th 2009 @ 2:12am | Report comment

Sprio,

You talk of the Australian teams, and a bit on the South Africans.

But I would love to hear your view on the kiwi teams, who are looking at a possible 2-3 teams in the top four.

Will you even remotely entertain the chance that one of them could win it?

Reply
James Mortimer said | May 13th 2009 @ 2:13am | Report comment

Whoops, I mean Spiro.

Apologies Mr Zavos.

Reply
Ed said | May 13th 2009 @ 3:47am | Report comment

Spiro,
The brumbies would only have to score 45 points to get the points differential back on the chiefs, as their’s will go up +45 and the chiefs will go down -45. Still an impossible task though…

Reply
Brett McKay said | May 13th 2009 @ 8:39am | Report comment

Read an interesting stat yesterday: the Brumbies look to have a reasonable record against the Chiefs, having won nine of 14, including four of six in Hamilton.

Of course what it doesn’t say is how long ago the most recnt win in Hamilton was, or what sort of form the Chiefs were in at the time.

James, I’m definitely entertaining the thought of a NZ title, particularly with home semis. But I just haven’t narrowed it down to ‘who’ just yet…

Reply
Spiro Zavos said | May 13th 2009 @ 9:22am | Report comment

Ed, thanks for the correction on my arithmetic. The nuns did not hit my knuckles hard enough obviously during arithmetic classes.
The odds are on a New Zealand team winning the tournament, I suppose, but with a couple of provisos. If the Bulls come in top of the table they play all their finals matches at home in Pretoria, where they are very hard to beat.
The other proviso is less weighty. I don’t think the person/committee making the decisions about the allocation of the referees (Andre Watson in South Africa, I believe) has been overly generous in this round to the New Zealand teams or the Waratahs trying to make the finals.
The Chiefs-Brumbies match is being refereed by Stuart Dickinson, an Australian.
Lions – Waratahs is to be refereed by Marius Jonker, a South African.
Reds – Hurricanes is being handled by Jonathan Kaplan, a South African
Sharks – Bulls has Craig Joubert, a South African, refereeing.
I don’t believe the non-neutral referee system has worked effectively. This is difficult to talk about without implying bad faith on the part of the referees, which is NOT part of the complaint. But teams playing with local referees appear to be more comfortable with them, than their opponents.
Given the fact that the New Zealand teams have generally had to play with referees from the same country as their opponents, the fact that three teams are in line for a finals position is a remarkable achievement.

Reply
stuff happens said | May 13th 2009 @ 10:07am | Report comment

Spiro I seem to recall that Gre G ‘s ouija predictions were aided by Murray Mexted which is why I would suggest they decided that the Bulls will lose and so put the Kiwis at 1 & 2 !
I don’t think the Sharks are playing that well and I’m sticking with the Bulls to head the table.This should be a great game.
The Hurricanes could win by a cricket score to come third ( and Australia wants another Super team; we haven’t got the players for the four we’ve got !).
The Chiefs will probably beat the Brumbies, they are an excellent team, although I’m more hopeful with Mortlock back in the midfield.The Chiefs I think will need a five pointer to head the table so I’m going for second place.
The Waratahs have the chance they deserve – just about zilch.
And the Crusaders will beat the Blues you would think.
What larks Pip!

Reply
LeftArmSpinner said | May 13th 2009 @ 10:19am | Report comment

With so much at stake, favourites getting beaten is even less likely.

Chiefs will finish first and win the 2009 comp by beating the Crusaders in the semi and then the Bulls (after they have beaten the Hurricanes) in the final.

The Tahs will beat the Lions with four tries and not make the semis.

Reply
Hemjay said | May 13th 2009 @ 10:34am | Report comment

I don’t think there will be too much change in the top four come Sunday morning.

The Bulls should get up to beat the Sharks and do it comfortably the Sharks are the benefactors of some very dubious decisions throughout the season that kept them in the hunt. But for you conspiracy theorists I’m sure you’ll be watching the weekends games closely and then watching this game to see how it pans out. The Bulls should win this game easily but hey you never know right?

The Chiefs should easily account for the Brumbies, lets face it the Brumbies have had two very soft games against teams who struggled to field a quality 15, not the best build up really is it and I believe this will be one step to far.

The Hurricanes should easily account for the Reds but in saying that they always seem to drop the games they should easily win. Being a Hurricanes supporter is not an easy job.

The Crusaders will be in for a battle at Eden Park but I do think they will scrap in but minus the bonus point. The rivalry between these two franchises is second to none and it will / should be a very tight encounter where passion is highly likely to spill over at times.

The other games are non events and I include the Warathas in this as to get to the top four they need results to still go their way even if the win. While not impossible it is highly unlikely.

Reply
True Tah said | May 13th 2009 @ 11:17am | Report comment

The Bulls have a history of really smashing their opponents in the final round when they are going to be in the finals. They put 92 points on the Reds in 2007, and they also put 75 on the Stormers once as well. The Sharks are going to be gored by the Bulls. I expect the Bulls to get maximum points from their game, giving them a home semi-final.

If I was a Hurricanes supporter I would be very nervous about them playing the Reds, whilst the Hurricanes have played so well for some games, they can fall apart so easily, and I picked them to paste the Chiefs last weekend. The Reds may do a favour for the Brumbies and the Tahs.

As flaky as the Blues are, I think they will get over the Saders, it wont be a pretty game, but the Blues are capable of this.

The key game of the weekend for mine is Chiefs v Brumbies, as pointed out above, the Brumbies have a good record against the Chiefs, however their main issue is for an against. I dont think the Brumbies can score four tries against the Chiefs, and if the Tahs beat the Lions and score four tries, then the Tahs and Brumbies would be on level points – can the Tahs do this? I doubt it, the Lions are a lot better team than their position on the table shows, they gave the Chiefs a good scare in Hamilton. The Chiefs will make the semis regardless.

My predictions.

1. Bulls – 47 points to get four try bonus against Sharks
2. Chiefs – 42 points – lose against the Brumbies but collect bonus point for finishing within 7 points.
3. Brumbies – 42 points – win against Brumbies, but not getting 4 try bonus, poor PD will see them finish behind Chiefs.
4. Hurricanes – 40 points – big call in that they will lose to the Reds, but finish within 7 points.

I expect the Tahs to win, but they will not score 4 tries, and their PD is not good enough to upset the Hurricanes, who barring an absolute bloodbath at Suncorp, will still finish within 7. The Tahs lack of ability to score tries will really hurt them.

Bulls to demolish Hurricanes in final 1
Brumbies to put two in a row over the Chiefs and head to the Republic.

Bulls at home, but Brumbies will have the Spirit of Macca guiding them, so its a tough call – unfortunately Im on Lord Howe Island that weekend, and I dont believe they would have the game showed on the Island (if anyone here knows better, then Im willing to listen!), maybe I should have checked beforehand to ensure that my holiday didnt coincide with the Super 14 final!!

Reply
katzilla said | May 13th 2009 @ 11:19am | Report comment

‘Come on Sharkies! THE FISH BOWL WILL BE TEEMING!’
That was the line delivered to me at a Pub in Sydney (Lowenbrau) the night before last years semis, at our table was 4 Canes diehards, next to these 3 saffas from Shark Country and on the other side was a couple from Christchurch the Husband wearing his Poosaders Jersey. We all had a great debate about who was going to win but in the end us and the Saffas ganged up on the Poosaders guy. Tall poppys and all that.
I love the last round, every year there is so many games that have an effect on where your team ends up and you end having more stake then you should in a game on the other side of the world that doesn’t involve your team.
Sharks to pull 4th spot after the Crusaders go down.

Chiefs will blow the Brumbies out of the water, the class is just too high, and I can’t see an area where the Brumbies have a shot. The chiefs pack is highly underated but have been sticking it to high class packs all season long, and thats why they are where they are. They’ve always had the fire power out wide thats always a given, but this year they have more of a complete package with a few forwards who are future All Blacks.

Reply