Super 14 final round held in Shark infested waters
Columnist By Spiro Zavos, 13 May 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- Brumbies, Rugby Union, Sharks, Super Rugby, Waratahs
The Waratahs Wycliff Palu dives over the Sharks Odwa Ndungane to score - AAP Image/Dean Lewins
Greg Growden in the Sydney Morning Herald has consulted his ouija board and has been told that the final four teams in the 2009 Super 14 tournament for the knockout finals will be the Chiefs, the Hurricanes, the Bulls and the Crusaders.
I think from this that the spirits are suggesting that the Bulls will lose to the Sharks at Durban: and that the Chiefs, the Hurricanes and the Crusaders will all win.
The ARU has helpfully put out statistics relating to the plight or possible progress of the two remaining Australian teams, the ACT Brumbies and the NSW Waratahs, that have a chance of winning a finals spot.
The Brumbies are 37 points, fifth on differentials (+9). A maximum five-points at Hamilton against the Chiefs will get them into the final, “if the Chiefs are simultaneously denied any championship points.”
This is a big ‘if’ when you look at the statistics.
The Chiefs have won eight matches and lost four. All of those four losses have been within seven points. This is the best win and within seven points loss record of any team in the tournament.
This statistic suggests that the Chiefs either win their matches, or get very close to doing so.
The Brumbies are playing at Hamilton. They will be confronted with a full house. Their away record is nowhere near as impressive this season nor historically as their home record.
It will be a tremendous result for the Brumbies, therefore, to defeat the Chiefs by scoring four or more and keeping the Chiefs to no bonus points.
The Waratahs are on 36 points and seventh on differentials +24.
This is a difficult position for the Waratahs to win a place in the finals.
As I pointed out in the SMH on Tuesday, the irony here is that the attritional style they have played this season is much better suited to finals rugby than the round robin part of the tournament, where bonus points for four tries are basically essential to earn.
According to the ARU’s summary: “Even if the ‘Tahs win in Johannesburg on Friday night and secure the prerequisite five championship points, an anxious wait is in store both to see whether they qualify for the semi-finals or not, and then where.”
It is possible for the Waratahs to get their five points and still miss out if all the top teams, aside from the Bulls, win. Of all the seven sides in contention, only the Brumbies (+9) have a worse Points Differential than the Waratahs.
The Sharks and the Waratahs, too, have the lowest number of four-try results (2) than the other five leading teams. There is some doubt, perhaps, if the Waratahs can score four tries or more against the Lions who will be playing at home.
My view is that they will.
The first match of the round will effectively decide the fate of the Brumbies.
If they defeat the Chiefs and there are no bonus points for either team, both teams will be on 41 points. But the Chiefs have a Points Differential of 99 points. It is difficult to believe that they could lose by 90+ points.
The last match of the round between the Sharks and the Bulls allows both teams to know, according to the ARU, “exactly what is required to achieve” a finals position.
The Sharks are on 36 points, the same as the Waratahs.
They do have a better Points Differential (+44) than the Waratahs or the Crusaders (+ 31). But it seems unlikely for them, and the Waratahs, to have the results fall in a totally unpredictable way to allow them to make the finals.
The Bulls on 42 points and Points Differential of +66 have the advantage of knowing that whatever happens in any of the matches, including theirs against the Sharks, that they are in the finals.
The big issue for the Bulls will be where they are going to play in the finals.
A victory against the Sharks gives him a home semi-final, but not necessarily a home final, if they win the semi-final. The Chiefs (+99) and the Hurricanes (+92) both have much better Points Differentials than the Bulls.
In summary, therefore, there are so many variable outcomes available that looking to the other side for guidance might be as good a way of predicting what will happen as any.
But what a way to end the round robin of the tournament with a crucial first up match, crucial matches throughout the weekend, and the finals clincher the last match of the round.
Makes you wonder if the schedule organiser had his ouija board out when preparing the match list.
Recommend this story.
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- Brumbies, Rugby Union, Sharks, Super Rugby, Waratahs
May 13th 2009 @ 1:11pm
Greg Russell said | May 13th 2009 @ 1:11pm | Report comment
1. “The Brumbies are playing at Hamilton. They will be confronted with a full house.”
And they will be without Chapman, Fairbanks and possibly Mortlock. I expect the inspirational warrior to play, but Chapman and Fairbanks will be big losses given their excellent form of recent weeks. Chapman was basically in the Wallabies a few years ago, before being crueled by injury. Given his form and that Rocky Elsom is still away, I expect Chapman to be a very serious contender for Wallaby 6 this year.
2. “Their away record is nowhere near as impressive this season nor historically as their home record.” (Spiro)
“The Brumbies look to have a reasonable record against the Chiefs, having won nine of 14, including four of six in Hamilton.” (Brett)
I am mostly very careful to stipulate that it’s in Christchurch, Wellington and Auckland that the Brumbies are awful. Curiously, at the same time as this they have been good in Hamilton and Dunedin.
Still, I’d be amazed if the Brumbies win this weekend.
3. “The Chiefs have won eight matches and lost four. All of those four losses have been within seven points. This is the best win and within seven points loss record of any team in the tournament.”
I think this clinches that they are the form team of the tournament. One of these losses was a bizarre one against the Sharks, in which the TMO (am I correct in thinking it was George Ayoub?) denied them what appeared to be 2 or 3 legitimate tries – definitely the better team lost that match. That was round 3. In rounds 2 and 1 they lost turgid affairs in Sydney and Christchurch respectively. The Waratahs were roundly criticized for such a boring win against an “average” Chiefs team, but in hindsight that win starts to look much more meritorious.
So basically the Chiefs had a very slow start to the season in which they lost their first 3 matches, and since then they have had just one further loss, a very narrow one in Pretoria when they were without a lot of their gamebreakers (Leonard, Masaga, Sivivatu). Not bad!
Most people in NZ are amazed at how well the “no-names” tight 5 of the Chiefs is going, but it’s a fact that they are doing an admirable job.
What may hold the Chiefs back is stage fright – it’s their first big shot at the title. Then again, they were very solid last weekend against the Hurricanes.
May 13th 2009 @ 1:27pm
Brett McKay said | May 13th 2009 @ 1:27pm | Report comment
True Tah, slight problem with your calcs – the Brumbies are on 37 currently, trailing the Crusaders on differential. A three try win will only put them on 41. Still has them in the four with your predictions. Also the Blues would go to 40 with the Tahs, so how does their diffo stack up??
Greg, Mortlock’s been cleared and will play at this stage. I presume they they’ll keep him away from the props during the warm-up, just to be sure..
May 13th 2009 @ 2:51pm
True Tah said | May 13th 2009 @ 2:51pm | Report comment
Brett
Blues for and against is worse than the Hurricanes, and in any event the Tahs and the Blues wont be featuring in the finals, obviously if the Tahs do sneak in, I will gladly eat humble pie. Should they qualify their only hope is for the Bulls to come 1, so they get to stay in the Republic.
May 13th 2009 @ 3:01pm
brad said | May 13th 2009 @ 3:01pm | Report comment
Most of the chiefs players have won the NPC 2 years back when Gatland was coach so there might be a smidgen of BMT. I think the bulls are best placed though, they can play that frusttrating brand of rugby that won the boks the world cup. Basically they will be willing to sit back and defend and Habana will secure the intercept. The crusaders are the dark horses, they have nothing to lose and nothing to prove and they have been there and done that. winning is a habit and of the top 4 only the hurricanes will go into the finals having lost in the last 2 weeks. I still maintain that the sahrks will throw the game if they have no chance of making the semi and the bulls need the bonus points to secure a home final.
May 13th 2009 @ 3:33pm
zhenry said | May 13th 2009 @ 3:33pm | Report comment
The Super 11 Future!
The present Super14 starts too early crowds are turned off by it.
The number of teams needs to be reduced to a Super 11 with 5 teams from the present 14 amalgamated and perhaps a Japanese and Island team.
Games between national teams before international competition takes place is necessary for travel reasons.
We need SA for money, to attract crowds and to stretch the skill level of the competition.
The above suggestions should go some way to increasing crowds and making more time available for national competitions.
Australia’s Wallaby nursery is mostly the private schools in NSW and QLD.
Australia has to do the hard yards on a grassroots following to further develop club and more national or extended international tours.
The ARU cannot survive on the huge money made from their international calendar and despite the appallingly negative press for NZ teams it is the NZ games that bring in the money for the ARU.
In the not to distant future, air travel will become a problem as peak oil establishes itself.
NZ have also to do the hard yards in promoting their national competition.
The NZ media was foolishly sold off to Australia and the national media is an apology for promoting a national culture.
The Australian media influence not only overwhelmingly promotes Rugby League but rubbishes Rugby Union and targets their promotion through media presenters working for the Australian media.
The NZRU have to get off their marketing backsides.
Unless the mediocre NZRU management focus on the grassroots and insist on accountability of the media corporations (as they do to some extent in Australia) NZRU is doomed to, at best, a gradual decline in their once historically proud national sport.
May 13th 2009 @ 3:50pm
eric said | May 13th 2009 @ 3:50pm | Report comment
The whole scenario is fascinaing. The Bulls lead with 9 wins, Waratahs are 7th with eight wins! It is still possible that the Bulls could come 5th!
Many good points made above.
One would have to think several teams will finish on equal points, so +/- will be critical. Therefore the top three look safe. The Crusaders are the only team with their destiny in their own hands really. A four try win v Auckland will lock up their spot, but, by the time they play the Brumbies and Tahs might have won. Just to add a bit of pressure!
Someone made the point about Australia struggling to fill four teams. Well, three of the bottom four are SA teams, and they have a factory of rugby players.
May 13th 2009 @ 4:00pm
eric said | May 13th 2009 @ 4:00pm | Report comment
PS Has anyone else got excited about the form of our front rows. Shepherdson & Alexander and Baxter and Robinson. Both units blitzed their opponents last weekend. And the Auck front row was Woodcock, Mealamu and Afoa! Bring it on.
May 13th 2009 @ 4:07pm
Jerry said | May 13th 2009 @ 4:07pm | Report comment
As good as the Brumbies performed, that really highlights how much the other 5 players in the scrum contribute. In the case of the Blues, they contributed very little.
May 13th 2009 @ 5:06pm
Sam Taulelei said | May 13th 2009 @ 5:06pm | Report comment
It doesn’t surprise me to see Australian front rowers perform well during the Super 14, what is surprising is that when the top eight forwards are brought together within the Wallabies they don’t transfer that same form at international level. So yes Eric, the Brumbies forwards were dominant against an All Black front row, but as Jerry stated would that happen against an All Black pack of eight?
May 13th 2009 @ 5:16pm
Working Class Rugger said | May 13th 2009 @ 5:16pm | Report comment
I think its the seperation of the tight fives that hurt them. For some reason Aus teams don’t seem to work well when there combinations are broken up. If you kept say the tight five of the Tahs together and added Smith and Pocock ( I believe Palu will be our No#8) the Tahs pack dominance may very well transfer into the test arena. It could be the same for the Brumbies packs. Correct me if I’m wrong but the only pack to trouble the Waratahs this year from the games I’ve seen was the Brumbies. Both packs have been dominant this season.