Test series predictions from the pub

 
The Crowd Roar Guru

By Lazlo Fade, 15 May 2009 The Crowd is a Roar Guru

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An Aussie, a Kiwi and a Saffer walk into a pub. No, that’s not the start of a joke, it’s for real – I was part of a foursome of rugby fans last week, drinking Carlton at the Shark Bar on the Corso. I took notes as the trio discussed the coming June tests and Tri-Nations games. Their opinions follow.

For those who may be unfamiliar with this year’s schedule, the All Blacks play France 13 June, play them again a week later, then meet Italy a week after that. This is followed by a three week break before meeting the Wallabies in NZ. They then play the Springboks a week later in SA; and a second time a week after that. That’s six tests in 42 days.

The Boks have three tests against the visiting Lions within 21 days, get a three week break, then play three tests – the ABs twice, the Wallabies once, all at home – also inside of 21 days.

The Wallabies play the ABs in NZ July 18, then play the Boks in SA three weeks later, then the ABs in Sydney, the Boks in Perth and Brisbane, and the ABs in Wellington Sept 19. Plus they play France twice and Italy once in June.

The Kiwi said – “We’ll beat France without too much trouble because, for one thing, they won’t send their best team, as usual, and even if they did, we’re still better than they are. They have a terrific back row in Harinordoquy, Dusautoir and Picamoles, but the other twelve are good but not great.

‘We have the Wallabies in Auckland first up in the Tri. We’ll win that one, and we’ll win the return in Wellington and beat the Boks in Hamilton. Why? Because with the RWC looming, we won’t, repeat won’t, want to be beaten at home by anybody.

‘As for the game against the Boks in Bloemfontein, they’ll still be sore from the Lions jumping up and down on them – although I think the Boks will take that series – so I believe the ABs could win that one. The Boks will come back at us at Durban and we could lose that one even though it’s at sea level.

‘The hardest game to call is the one against the Wallabies in Sydney. If they have a new look team, with new look Deans coaching, we could be vulnerable. But I’m picking the ABs to win four out of six in the Tri.”

The Saffer – “I agree on the Lions tour. They have strength at 15,7 and 8 but then things tail off. Also, we’ve got them going from altitude to sea level and back again – our advantage.

‘Another big advantage for us is at the start of the Tri when we have two games against the ABs and one against the Ws, all three on home turf. Yes, the ABs might well be in better shape than we are in Bloemfontein, but we win in Durban and no way do we lose to the Ws in Cape Town.

‘I’ll give you the win in Hamilton. The games against the Ws in Perth and Brisbane are hard to call for the reasons you just gave. I’m pretty sure I can tell you the Bok team right now, if it’s injury-free, and I can get close on the AB team, but the Ws may have some fresh faces and they’ll either play some dynamic stuff or fall flat. We could end up three-three.”

The Aussie – “The ABs have three tests within three weeks at home, then stay home for the Tri opener against us. They’ll be tough to beat in Auckland and Wellington no matter who Deans goes with. And the Boks will be tough to beat in Cape Town.

‘As for the home games against the ABs in Sydney, and the Boks in Perth and Brisbane, we’re all in agreement there – hard to predict. If the Ws get the selection right, and it clicks, there could be three upsets. But that’s a big if.

‘At the moment we have a fine front row, a second row in need of rejuvenation, and a classy back row if Palu is switched on. We have a question to answer at halfback, a captain who may have seen his best days as an attacking centre, and another position to get right at fullback.

‘I’m gloomy. I think we’ll end up two-four.”

So that’s the prediction at our pub.

What’s the prediction at yours?

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