Tri Nations probable forward packs dissected
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By JariusVII, 17 May 2009 JariusVII is a Roar Rookie
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With the Super 14 in its final throes, much discussion abounds as to who is in possession of a genuine chance to add the Tri-Nations trophy to their cabinet.
Before a team has been named I intend to compare and contrast on the level of probable personnel and briefly suggest which units from which country have the early advantage on paper.
Let us begin with a glance at the foundation of any good side, the front row. Early indications suggest Australia to be lagging when it comes to depth in this area. Argument and discussion suggest it will be Baxter, Moore, Robinson with Polota Nau and Alexander being inserted in most speculations.
On the next level, the AB’s should line up with Afoa, Hore and Woodcock, although there are no shortage of Test quality players in the mix with Mealamu, Mackintosh and Schwalger another top quality front row in their own right, with DeMelmache showing strong potential and the ability to play right across the front row.
Depth in the front row for these two sides pales in comparison with the veritable smorgasbord of first class options the Springboks are afforded. The probable front row of Smit, B DuPlessis and Steenkamp is backed by Kruger, Kuun, J DuPlessis, The Beast, Calldo, W Du Preez and Adrian Strauss. The only problem is who to pick for the Boks selectors methinks.
With the Boks having to play the Lions before the Tri-Nations, this depth is going to come in quite handy, the AB’s look solid but Woodcock really needs to stay fit, while one or two injuries will put the Aussies in real strife.
The locking combinations only do more to place the Boks in further stead above their rivals, boasting world rugby’s premier locking combination (Matfield and Botha) with some Test quality options waiting in the wings should durability become and issue.
Matfield and Botha are a cut above the rest but doubts have arisen as to their effectiveness under the new ELV’s. With options like Bekker, Muller, Russouw and Venter in reserve, the Boks are spoiled for choice.
The All Blacks look to go with the proven pair of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn (injuries notwithstanding), however their much publicised depth problems in the second row appear to have abated with many old and new options emerging (or re-emerging) in the current super 14.
Players such as Eaton, Boric, Thrush and Triggs have proven themselves to be quality options should the selectors need to look further than the incumbents.
The Wallabies resources in the locking position seem meagre in comparison, but some new faces have been standing up to be counted in this years Super 14. A probable combination of Horwill and Sharpe gives the Australians a test-proven duo, and the less experienced names of Mumm, Caldwell and Kimlin have shown promise this year.
The Boks have an edge over the Kiwis here due to the immense experience possessed by the second choice combinations, whereas the Aussies and Kiwis have a majority of up and comers showing promise standing by as replacements, but lets not forget such up and comers could be world-class incumbents by the time the next World Cup rolls around.
The back row is where the waters get muddied, as the combinations for all three countries are only speculative at this time and with many players eligible for selection in more than one spot, we can only really off a preliminary picture.
Australia has been dealt a cruel blow recently, with the oft-injured Hugh McMeniman being ruled out for six months. McMeniman was looking close to finally fulfilling his potential and was a real chance to fill the gaping hole left by Rocky Elsom.
However Dean Mumm, Ben Mowen and Scott Higginbotham have all shown much promise in the Super 14 season, with Mumm being an obvious choice having had test experience and adding extra height the the 6 position.
George Smith has maintained his firm stranglehold on the openside spot, making a good case for being the worlds best in that position, with Phil Waugh fighting to keep his spot from promising force flanker David Pocock, a revelation for his team this season.
At number eight, figure for Palu to keep his spot based on potential and incumbency but he really needs to become more consistent, but with Brown and Hoiles nipping at his heels, he’s going to have sink or swim quickly.
The All Blacks boast a truly world class back row with McCaw, So’oialo and Messam being my bet to pack down at the back of the scrum.
Some very interesting contenders have emerged through the present competition, Lauaki, Kaino, and Adam Thompson really showing good form this season, but a suitable replacement for McCaw in the event of injury is vital.
The Boks once again are spoiled for choice, at the seven position, Juan Smith is a true world class flanker, with Deysel, Daniel and Potgeiter needing experience to be able to step out of Smith’s shadow.
Kankowski and Spies represent two super athletic, all-round talents emerging at the number 8 position.
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Dan the Main Man said | May 17th 2009 @ 12:23pm | Report comment
I disagree about Australia’s front row depth. You only mentioned Robinson, Alexander, Baxter, Polota Nau and Moore and totally forgot about Guy Shepherdson and Nic Henderson – both proven international performers who have had great form this year, in addition to the up and comers Pek Cowan and Sekope Kepu. I think that gives us easily as much depth as the Kiwis, who’s teams have not proven themselves this year come scrum time.
Jerry said | May 17th 2009 @ 12:44pm | Report comment
I don’t think Messam’s gonna be the first choice blindside, Henry tends to stick to his own favourites which would be Kaino (who hasn’t been great but has been out of position) and Thompson who was one of the standout NZ forwards for most of the comp but did trail off a bit in the last few rounds. Rodney’s been a bit lack luster but I’d still favour him instead of Lauaki in a crunch test, but I’d love for Sione to develop into a consistent 80 minute player.
bennalong said | May 17th 2009 @ 1:22pm | Report comment
I disagree with your assessment about Wallaby depth which of course will always suffer in direct comparison to the other two tri nation contenders where football is still Rugby Union.
In reality, you train with a squad of say 30, and although you might have to call up extras it goes some way to mitigating our deficiencies.
That said, those deficiencies are not as desperate as they were before this season and the absence of an Australian team from the finals was a matter of luck rather than poor form. With the Waratahs at last finding a back line it is entirely possible their style of play might have dominated in finals Rugby where we’ve witnessed the Blues and the Chiefs temper their outright attacking styles and look the lesser for it.
My point is we’ve seen improving performances from all four Aussie teams depite the number of new recruits and the retention of key players from last season.
I believe Robbie Deans will be considered in his public utterings but in private he’ll be feeling very happy!
van der Merwe said | May 17th 2009 @ 1:52pm | Report comment
Robinson has been paired with an invertebrate this whole S14, so we can’t really assess him too much. In between the collapses he has looked quite good, though. Henry’s favourites in this department have been shown up a few times this year, particularly Woodcock. You mention De Melmache who fights well in the loose, but what good is a non throwing, non scrummaging hooker? The Crusaders front row is the pick of the NZ bunch, in my opinion. Unless de Villiers comes down with a serious case of xenophobia, there is absolutely no way that Steenkamp will get picked ahead of Mtawarira.
On flanks: I’m surprised you failed to mention Brussouw (easily the best fetcher this season) and Burger (out of form, like McCaw).
USRugbyFan said | May 17th 2009 @ 2:40pm | Report comment
I wouldn’t select Thompson purely because of his acting job when he got pimp-slapped by Kockott
ohtani's jacket said | May 17th 2009 @ 3:26pm | Report comment
It’s no good saying the Boks are spoilt for choice when they haven’t able to produce a pack that actually dominates. They had huge problems last year getting the right loose forward combination and have the world’s most overrated locking combination in Matfield and Botha, unless you think lineout work is the only requirement from a lock.
I don’t agree with breaking a pack down into rows, because set pieces require the forwards to work together. And the most crucial aspect of rugby these days is how the forwards work together at the breakdown. You only have to look at the Chiefs/Brumbies game to see that work at the breakdown can compensate for a weak platform.
On a more cynical note, it appears to me that the best packs these days know when to collapse a scrum and when to close the gap in the lineout, etc. There’s a hell of a lot going on that you don’t see on paper.
Knives Out said | May 17th 2009 @ 8:00pm | Report comment
‘On a more cynical note, it appears to me that the best packs these days know when to collapse a scrum and when to close the gap in the lineout, etc. There’s a hell of a lot going on that you don’t see on paper.’
When has this not been so?
It will be interesting to see whether a) the Australian pack is affected by the loss of Foley, b) whether PdV will select the same pack as he always has – i.e. not the form players, c) whether Henry will select the same pack as he always has.
Brendan said | May 17th 2009 @ 8:38pm | Report comment
ohtani’s jacket
You’re joking, right, when you say “world’s most overrated locking combination in Matfield and Botha, unless you think lineout work is the only requirement from a lock.”?? You obviously never saw Botha’s performance in single handidly manhandling the england pack in last year’s Twickers test no to mention the cross cover tackle he made on one the england backs who would have scored but for Botha’s athleticism.
Matfield, on the other hand, is very mobile, has a good pair of hands, and reads the game well given his outstanding positional play (I’m thinking of that amazing try he scored against the W’s a few years back now at Newlands, in the Tri-Nations).
OldManEmu said | May 17th 2009 @ 9:00pm | Report comment
There is no doubt that Matfield and Botha are without peer as a second row combination and add to these Kankowski, Burger, Smith is a hell of a back five and I would suggest that the SAffas have the edge on paper (at this stage) in the forwards.
Brendan said | May 17th 2009 @ 9:14pm | Report comment
I must say that I have been impressed with both Alexander and Robinson this season, pitty one of them can’t play tight head