Tri Nations probable forward packs dissected
Roar Rookie By JariusVII, 17 May 2009 JariusVII is a Roar Rookie
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- Ali Williams, All Blacks, Ben Mowen, Brad Thorn, David Pocock, dean mumm, George Smith, Hugh McMeniman, Phil Waugh, Rocky Elsom, Rugby Union, SANZAR, Springboks, Tri Nations, wallabies
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With the Super 14 in its final throes, much discussion abounds as to who is in possession of a genuine chance to add the Tri-Nations trophy to their cabinet.
Before a team has been named I intend to compare and contrast on the level of probable personnel and briefly suggest which units from which country have the early advantage on paper.
Let us begin with a glance at the foundation of any good side, the front row. Early indications suggest Australia to be lagging when it comes to depth in this area. Argument and discussion suggest it will be Baxter, Moore, Robinson with Polota Nau and Alexander being inserted in most speculations.
On the next level, the AB’s should line up with Afoa, Hore and Woodcock, although there are no shortage of Test quality players in the mix with Mealamu, Mackintosh and Schwalger another top quality front row in their own right, with DeMelmache showing strong potential and the ability to play right across the front row.
Depth in the front row for these two sides pales in comparison with the veritable smorgasbord of first class options the Springboks are afforded. The probable front row of Smit, B DuPlessis and Steenkamp is backed by Kruger, Kuun, J DuPlessis, The Beast, Calldo, W Du Preez and Adrian Strauss. The only problem is who to pick for the Boks selectors methinks.
With the Boks having to play the Lions before the Tri-Nations, this depth is going to come in quite handy, the AB’s look solid but Woodcock really needs to stay fit, while one or two injuries will put the Aussies in real strife.
The locking combinations only do more to place the Boks in further stead above their rivals, boasting world rugby’s premier locking combination (Matfield and Botha) with some Test quality options waiting in the wings should durability become and issue.
Matfield and Botha are a cut above the rest but doubts have arisen as to their effectiveness under the new ELV’s. With options like Bekker, Muller, Russouw and Venter in reserve, the Boks are spoiled for choice.
The All Blacks look to go with the proven pair of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn (injuries notwithstanding), however their much publicised depth problems in the second row appear to have abated with many old and new options emerging (or re-emerging) in the current super 14.
Players such as Eaton, Boric, Thrush and Triggs have proven themselves to be quality options should the selectors need to look further than the incumbents.
The Wallabies resources in the locking position seem meagre in comparison, but some new faces have been standing up to be counted in this years Super 14. A probable combination of Horwill and Sharpe gives the Australians a test-proven duo, and the less experienced names of Mumm, Caldwell and Kimlin have shown promise this year.
The Boks have an edge over the Kiwis here due to the immense experience possessed by the second choice combinations, whereas the Aussies and Kiwis have a majority of up and comers showing promise standing by as replacements, but lets not forget such up and comers could be world-class incumbents by the time the next World Cup rolls around.
The back row is where the waters get muddied, as the combinations for all three countries are only speculative at this time and with many players eligible for selection in more than one spot, we can only really off a preliminary picture.
Australia has been dealt a cruel blow recently, with the oft-injured Hugh McMeniman being ruled out for six months. McMeniman was looking close to finally fulfilling his potential and was a real chance to fill the gaping hole left by Rocky Elsom.
However Dean Mumm, Ben Mowen and Scott Higginbotham have all shown much promise in the Super 14 season, with Mumm being an obvious choice having had test experience and adding extra height the the 6 position.
George Smith has maintained his firm stranglehold on the openside spot, making a good case for being the worlds best in that position, with Phil Waugh fighting to keep his spot from promising force flanker David Pocock, a revelation for his team this season.
At number eight, figure for Palu to keep his spot based on potential and incumbency but he really needs to become more consistent, but with Brown and Hoiles nipping at his heels, he’s going to have sink or swim quickly.
The All Blacks boast a truly world class back row with McCaw, So’oialo and Messam being my bet to pack down at the back of the scrum.
Some very interesting contenders have emerged through the present competition, Lauaki, Kaino, and Adam Thompson really showing good form this season, but a suitable replacement for McCaw in the event of injury is vital.
The Boks once again are spoiled for choice, at the seven position, Juan Smith is a true world class flanker, with Deysel, Daniel and Potgeiter needing experience to be able to step out of Smith’s shadow.
Kankowski and Spies represent two super athletic, all-round talents emerging at the number 8 position.
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May 17th 2009 @ 10:04pm
Sam Taulelei said | May 17th 2009 @ 10:04pm | Report comment
“Guy Shepherdson and Nic Henderson – both proven international performers ” now that’s a big stretch!!!
Strength in depth isn’t a case of trotting out a long list of names of people who have played a handful of tests or who have had a good Super 14 season, it’s about having at least two people who are “world class” in as many positions as possible. Dan’s list of Australian props merely states players who will compete for available spots – it should also be noted that most of them are loosehead props. Polota Nau has the same flaws as Aled de Malmanche, good with ball in hand – apart from throwing the ball into the lineout. There are more promising players for Australia giving Deans more options this year but until they play Tri Nations their quality is still in the unknown and unproven capacity.
NZ and SA aren’t any different. Take out the 5 world class players from each team and then look at their replacements and their relative test experience – there is a difference.
May 18th 2009 @ 12:17am
ohtani's jacket said | May 18th 2009 @ 12:17am | Report comment
Neither Matfield or Botha are anything special in the loose or in tight, though I’ll concede that Both provides some grunt. Matfield doesn’t do enough work around the paddock. I don’t mind eating my words if they have a great Tri-Nations.
May 18th 2009 @ 12:42am
Knives Out said | May 18th 2009 @ 12:42am | Report comment
Brendan, Alexander can play tight head.
I agree with the sentiment that Ohtani is expressing. Botha and Matfield are very good locks but a lot of people are jumping on their bandwagon without actually understanding what they do well, or what a good lock does well. It is somewhat exuberant to suggest that the pair are without peer. That simply isn’t true, and I have seen the pair have enough poor games to confirm that. One swallow does not make a summer.
May 18th 2009 @ 1:50am
Mick Gold Coast QLD said | May 18th 2009 @ 1:50am | Report comment
Dan the Main Man says, of the Australian front row contenders, “Shepherdson and Nic Henderson – both proven international performers”. Aaaarghh!
van der Merwe more accurately says “Robinson has been paired with an invertebrate this whole S14″. Polota Nau cannot even throw straight, after several years practising as an apprentice whilst being paid tradesman’s wages.
And a week or so ago the ARU failed to take the opportunity to offer Alice Baxter of Twickenham a “No thanks, but good luck in the future”. You know him – the one who is internationally renowned for developing a fierce glare come scrum time.
We have not had a credible front row since 1995.
A couple of of new locks are now developing, although supposed front runner Horwill is a reckless penalties liability – absent discipline. Nathan Sharpe is about as effective in the hard yakka as Steve Cutler used to be! The ABs have about poofteen locks to choose from – every one of ‘em better than our lot. RSA can even offer 6th pick Pensioner AJ Venter as better than anyone we have.
Loosie is better covered now, with several new blokes emerging behind George Smith – I like Pocock for his energy (don’t recall if he is a 6 or 7).
I’m staggered at the suggestions McCaw is “out of form” (he’s played about 3 games all year – I watched him perform as the champ he is on the weekend) and the Pretoria locks are not an outstanding pair.
We badly need an alternative 8 to Lazy Palu.
May 18th 2009 @ 2:28am
Severian said | May 18th 2009 @ 2:28am | Report comment
Did you watch the Tahs scrum against the Sharks, Bulls, Blues or Crusaders? They more than held their own.
May 18th 2009 @ 10:12am
Justin said | May 18th 2009 @ 10:12am | Report comment
Both the Brumbies and Tah scrums have had good moments against SA and Kiwi sides this year so while the AUS front row may not be at the top of the tree, they will perform better than the previous few years, make no mistake.
SA have the best lineout then AUS and NZ last. NZ have the best backrow (mainly due to McCaw), wont be much between AUS and SA but Smith tips it on favour of AUS.
May 18th 2009 @ 2:00pm
retiredrucker said | May 18th 2009 @ 2:00pm | Report comment
Don’t forget Fairbrother will be picked out of WA club rugby to provide some depth, his accent might create some issues when he calls for the ball!
Mick, agree with your opinion of the front row. I cringe every time I see the Invertebrate Baxter pack down with the scowl. Is it designed to make the oposition giggle and loose concentration??
As a force supporter I am perplexed that we are apparentley chasing Dunnings signature, another prop who doesnt cut it at test level.
When is the ARU going to have a tight 5 development strategy that picks the right body shapes in primary school and promotes their participation in rugby, think of it as a prop factory!
My children will be available at 5, who else will encourage there youngsters
May 18th 2009 @ 2:08pm
Jerry said | May 18th 2009 @ 2:08pm | Report comment
Realisticallty the Aussie scrum hasn’t actually been a weak point for a couple of seasons. Last year they were a match for pretty much anyone – they may not be shoving oppositions heads back into their backsides but they’re a huge way from the joke they were circa 2005/6.
May 18th 2009 @ 7:30pm
Knives Out said | May 18th 2009 @ 7:30pm | Report comment
I disagree, Jerry. There was still a huge amount of collapsing perpetuated by Baxter during the most recent 3N and the new and improved Gold macho machine was easily dealt with by Wales and pushed over – resulting in a penalty try – by France.
May 18th 2009 @ 11:16pm
OldManEmu said | May 18th 2009 @ 11:16pm | Report comment
I will try to justify the comment that as a pair Botha and Matfield are without peer.
IMO Botha is a true hard man, intimidation personified. He brazenly carries out acts of thuggery on a regualr basis. To wit his hit on Waugh this year. He is good for at least for one brain explosion per year. Now this must mean he simply does not care that he is a good chance of getting caught and suspended nor does he care that the oposition will attempt to get square. I do not for one second suggest that the way Botha goes about his footy is a good thing but I do suggest that there is a massive intimidation factor at play. No matter how tough and focussed you are, you will always have one eye out for the big Afrikaaner.
Now for his skills. He is a very good defender for a big man- his lateral movement is good. He is a very good ball runner. He is superb at the breakdown.He wins his own lineout ball. To the extent that it is possible to tell from the position I watch, i.e from the couch, he seems to give it a red hot go at scrum time. I have also heard that he can smoke a cigarette outta his arse.You got it, I think he is the real deal.
His partner Matfield is a different type of player. Not as heavy and physically imposing, but from all reports an absolute master at the lineout – which by the way also translates to the other re-starts from kicks. Opposition players always speak of Matfield’s ability in the lineout pre game. I think he does a lot of good work around the field, he is very mobile, he is quick for a big man,he cleans out well at the tackle. He is no great player by himself, but pair him with Botha…..nutha story. And he is the ultimate battering ram when it comes to getting the chicks – according to my wife.
If they have a peer as a pair (!!!) in international Rugby, who is it? Maybe those nice Irish boys but I dont think so. Certainly no other pair in NH rugby holds a candle. Sharpe and Vicerman at their best were possibly a match but of course that is old news. The ABS – I do not know who they are going to pick but just say it is Williams and Thorne – a nice match up but not quite as good,although I dare say if there is one bloke in World Rugby who would not be intimidated by Botha it would be Brad Thorne.
Yep, I will stand by it, Botha and Matfield are without peer.