The Bulls are bullish about defeating the Chiefs

Columnist

By Spiro Zavos, 28 May 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert

Tagged:: Bulls, Chiefs, Rugby Union, SANZAR, Super Rugby

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Bulls' Fourie du Preez looks for support as he is tackled by the Chiefs' Stephen Donald during the Super 14 rugby match at the International Stadium in Rotorua, New Zealand, Saturday, March 22, 2008. AP Photo/NZPA, John Cowpland

The French talk about the after-match discussion as the “third half.” It really should be the fourth half, with the pre-match discussion the first half. Where the fourth half discussion is at least based on known facts, the first half pre-match discussion is a talkfest on what Donald Rumsfeld would call “unknown fact.”

And that is the thrill of talking about whether the Bulls will defeat the Chiefs to win their second Super 14 title in three years. Until the match is over, we can all be right, no matter what opinion we offer.

In an attempt, perhaps, to give a little ballast to the unknown facts, the ARU has issued an media release which previews The Final (as it calls it).

Here are some of the intriguing facts from that media release.

The Bulls and the Chiefs are contesting the right to be the fourteenth Super Rugby champion in the fifteenth match between the two teams. All but three of these contests have been determined by twelve or fewer points.

The Chiefs loss to the Bulls in the round-robin part of the tournament is their only loss in the last eleven matches.

The Chiefs have won just four of their last sixteen matches in South Africa.

The Bulls are unbeaten in their last ten matches at Loftus Versfeld.

The Bulls have 21 wins, fourteen losses and two draws from 37 home matches against New Zealand teams.

They have scored 25 of their 40 tries this season at Loftus Versfeld.

Twelve members of the current Bulls team played in the winning final in 2007.

The Chiefs are the last of the New Zealand teams to play in a Super Rugby final.

The last six Super Rugby finals have been determined by ten points or less.

The Bulls’ 20-19 victory over the Sharks in 2007 is the most recent of only three cases where the top qualifier has been defeated at home in a final.

Morne Steyn has scored 172 points this year (and ten drop goals), a record for the Bulls.

Stephen Donald has scored 132 points this season, his second highest total in Super rugby behind the 164 points he scored in 2007.

And what happens if scores are tied at the end of the match? There will be 20 minutes of extra time, with ten minutes each way. Injury time will be added to the extra time.

If the scores are still tied, the two teams will be declared joint winners.

With Sitiveni Sivivatu out injured, with the Chiefs having to travel from Hamilton to Pretoria, and with the Bulls playing so splendidly against the Crusaders, South Africans are convinced, bullish in fact, about a Bulls victory.

Even the New Zealand rugby writers, normally so up for their team, can’t see a Chiefs victory.

Finally, there is the bizarre decision (taken presumably by SANZAR’s referee organiser Andre Watson) to allow South African officials to referee the match, with Jonathan Kaplan being the field referee.

During the period of the first half discussion, all these these facts may be put in the category of the “unknown.” But there is too much of a bias towards the Bulls chances to be discounted.

If you were a betting man you’d have to put your money on the bullish Bulls trampling the Chiefs.

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The Crowd Says (44) | Page 1 of Comments

Brett McKay said | May 28th 2009 @ 8:13am | Report comment

What, no drop goal shoot-out?!?!

Also Spiro, what did the ARU release mean by “The Chiefs are the last of the New Zealand teams to play in a Super Rugby final.”??

What about the Crusaders last year??

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Spiro Zavos said | May 28th 2009 @ 8:31am | Report comment

Brett, they meant that the Chiefs are the last New Zealand franchise to play in a final. In other words, all the other New Zealandf franchises have been in a final, except the Chiefs until now.
The ARU review did mention Morne Steyn’s record four field goals last Saturday against the Crusaders. But I thought that they we’d had enough first half discussion of this way of scoring and it was time to get on to other issues like the difficulty of a side trying to beat the round-robin winners on their home ground in the final.

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Brett McKay said | May 28th 2009 @ 8:36am | Report comment

ah right, yeah that makes sense now. Thanks for the explanation Spiro – That’s actually a pretty fair achievement, to have had all five teams now in a final. I couldn’t even guess how long it will be before all four (or five) Australian teams play in a final, and with all due respect, I’d imagine it will be even longer for South Africa..

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fred said | May 28th 2009 @ 9:14am | Report comment

spiro ;precompetition,competition,refocusing within competition and evaluation..and GATES wants his military graduates to question conformity so im suggesting the 5th half could be the longest

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Mark said | May 28th 2009 @ 9:15am | Report comment

Spiro, I still think tehy’ll find the Chiefs a step up to the Crusaders & I’m picking the Chiefs. They’re the equal of the Crusaders in the forwards & far superior in teh backs. The Crusaders had no real strike power in the backs but still ran the Bulls close (especially if Waldron hadn’t got 10 for not rolling away).

Lets just hope that it’s another great game like teh semis were, & that there’s no silly yellows that cost one team the match such as in the Chiefs vs. Canes semi.

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Rusty said | May 28th 2009 @ 9:31am | Report comment

For the record – as Im big on facts

The country final appearance / wins are as follows (not taking into account 09)

Country Wins/Runner-up
New Zealand 10/5
Australia 2/5
South Africa 1/3

Team Wins/Runner-up
Crusaders 7/2
Blues 3/1
Brumbies 2/3
Bulls 1/0
Sharks 0/3
Waratahs 0/2
Highlanders 0/1
Hurricanes 0/1

Small consolation but interestingly enough in the super 12 every franchise from each country made the final 4 at some stage

1996 – Blues, Sharks, Reds, Bulls
1997 – Brumbies, Hurricanes
1998 – Crusaders, Highlanders
1999 – Stormers
2000 – Cats
2002 – Waratahs
2004 – Chiefs

The Super 14 obviously hasnt been running as long but again shows the dominance by NZ teams with only the Highlanders not making the final cut. SA having 2 teams and Australia one, which could point to the dilution of quality players across the new franchises in the S14 format.

2006 – Crusaders, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Bulls
2007 – Sharks, Blues
2008 – no change
2009 – Chiefs

Mayb it is that NZ is the only country to have not diluted their player base through expansion? Again, incredible the number of talented individuals brought through. As such I expect it to take longer for those countries who have, to have teams making their finals appearances. Statistically, South Africa has had to expand its quality player base by 20% and Australia by 25% (not saying the up and comers arent quality but you get what I mean) . With an additional 5th team that means in Australia a 40% expansion in 5 years! Pretty incredible really to develop a player based from top 66 to 110 players. You wouldnt expect instant success over night, although what I think will happen is quality players will flock to the powerhouse teams as is being seen with the Brumbies for next year and to a lesser extent the Tahs. In South Africa, the Sharks, Bulls and to a lesser extent Stormers. The teams on the outside will struggle until the flow reverses or equalises.

Think thats a bit of a tangent for the morning but then I havent had my trillionth coffee yet

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Rusty said | May 28th 2009 @ 9:36am | Report comment

Oh and for the record – I think of the semi finalist matchups the Bulls were probably hoping for a Canes win as I think the Chiefs less structured broken play bothers them more. It will be closer than expected but Bulls to win by 5 surprise surprise through astute use of the boot. Their field kicking has been immense and will keep the Chiefs on the wrong side of the field although if their is any team who can score from anywhere it is the Chiefs but without Sivi they will have lost their best proponent of this type of attack.

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Mark said | May 28th 2009 @ 10:21am | Report comment

Rusty, Donald’s positional kicking is better than the Canes 1st 5 so i wouldn’t take Bulls field kicking dominance as a given.

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Rusty said | May 28th 2009 @ 10:41am | Report comment

very valid point Mark but the advantage the Bulls have is that being at home they know exactly how far and where to kick it

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Hammer said | May 28th 2009 @ 11:05am | Report comment

Rusty – don’t discount the vastly under-rated Calum Bruce in the kicking stakes also … Bruce is the quiet achiever in that backline – think Fox put it well in one commentary – he’s the glue that hold the backline together …

Donald and Bruce combine well and can counter the Bulls kicking game

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