Looking for a tip for this weekend? I can’t help you with all teams, but by looking at the numbers, chances are things will be close. While David Gallop has had plenty to worry about off the field this year, the weekend action is providing plenty of respite for him and should ensure that the crowds continue to come through the turnstiles.

Gallop has long argued that the salary cap is the key to the game’s success in that it ensures a competition in which all fans can go into a weekend’s action with some hope, even the current cellar dwellers.

This season has provided the closest results of some time.

The 2009 season has seen 41 percent of games decided by 6 points or less.

The average over the past ten years for that margin has been 30 percent, which makes this year’s figures look pretty good. Prior to this season the previous highest was 2007 at 37 percent.

When you think of that winning margin, no wonder the objective not to commit errors and give away penalties is so high. It may also point to why the pressure on the referees is so intense.

In a 40 point drubbing, the victors and vanquished are unlikely to concerned about a few 50-50 calls. But as we have seen, a few calls can now decide matches.

So the two referees are under pressure, but are they blowing more penalties? Only marginally.

This year the average total penalties in a game is 13.9. Prior to this year, the long term average was 13.1. This probably makes the criticism of the system from some quarters a little unfair.

Hosting a game seems to do little to give you a wave of penalties.

Since 2001, the home teams receive on average 1.06 more penalties than away teams. And this year it is 0.8.

So two referees seem to be slightly less swayed by the “get ’em onside” calls of the passionate home crowd.

Of course, it isn’t always just about the total penalties you receive but when and where you get them. A fifth tackle penalty as you hit halfway is golden. If you are already down by 24 and you get a flurry in the last five minutes it means little.

But penalties counts are getting closer, if only slightly.

Prior to this year the difference between two teams was running at 2.54 penalties per match, this season sees it down to 2.13.

But enough about refs.

In terms of results, 39 percent of matches have ended with a 13 plus margin, which is lowest of any year since 2001.

Since that time, the average has actually been 49 percent, which is a drop that must make those at NRL headquarters pleased.

Admittedly, the first half of the season does tend to bring fewer blowouts, as they are something that kick in later as injuries and a loss of motivation start to bite.

But still, this year’s opening twelve rounds have seen fewer big scores clocked up than previous seasons.

In terms of tries being scored, the average number per game seems to be dropping. So much for touch footy!

There have been an average of 6.9 tries per game this year. The average over the previous three years is 7.5. It was over 8 before then.

Did the wrestle, which was accused of stifling the game, really stop attacking footy? The numbers don’t prove it, but there may be something in the continual improvements in player’s fitness.

But if you turn up to a game on a sunny Sunday afternoon instead of a starry Saturday night, then you are likely to see more tries.

Since 2001, the average tries in day games has been 8.67, while night games record 7.59. That is around an extra try per game when played under the sun.

This season its 7.5 in day matches and 6.6 under lights, which is probably were the calls for more day time footy are coming from.

Finally for the punters, favourites have covered TAB’s points start in 46 percent of games this year, which is down five percent on the average/ So think long and hard before looking to improve your payout.

Cheers to Adam for the use of his stats.

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