Comments on: We’ve qualified for the World Cup properly this time

By: Captain Random

Captain Random — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:34:51 +0000

westy -

Some of those you listed aren’t FIFA members in their own right (Monaco, Channel Islands, Vatican).

By: jimbo

jimbo — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 14:01:37 +0000

The rankings used for the World Cup are the FIFA rankings and I don’t think we should fear any of the top eight too greatly, but will be interesting to see who else we will come up against with some more likely upsets and higher ranked teams than us not making it.

By: westy

westy — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 13:37:20 +0000

I am less inclined now too be concerned about Oceania being included in new Asian groupings when one goes through the roll call of some of Europ’e finest Andorra/Albania/ Faroe Islands/Channel Islands/ Monaco/Luxembourg/Liechtenstein/Moldava/Slovakia/Slovenia/Malta/Cyprus/San Marino/Vatican/Bosnia/ Macedonia/Montenegro/Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania/Iceland and if one gets really nasty Northern Ireland/Wales etc. please note this is not an attack on the people or cultures of these nations just to say some might be classed as merely distinct neighbourhoods.
Not all those within european qualifying groups are the vaunted powerhouses some would have us believe.
Note this does not mean a small nation cannot be a powerhouse eg Holland /Denmark or Croatia just that the scale of some European group participants do not embarrass the likes of Fiji / or even the Soloman Islands.

By: Albert Ross

Albert Ross — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 06:31:19 +0000

Montenegro’s ranking? what has that got to do with the price of fish? We were discussing the relative strengths of the two Asian groups using an available metric ie. ELO Rankings which are arguably more statistcally relevant than the ones that FIFA publishes.

For the record Montenegro’s ELO rank is currently 55 which somewhat flatters the team which represents a country with a population smaller than most western Sydney LGAs.

The rank flatters them because the 2009 form of “The Brave Falcons” has been a bit patchy to say the least with 2 draws (including one against fellow “powerhouse” Cyprus) and a loss to Italy.

Regardless of which zone they are playing they are destined to be amongst those who make up the numbers like Wales. So don’t expect to be bawling out ” Oh, Bright Dawn of May,” at a WC final any time soon.

By: Captain Random

Captain Random — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 03:37:56 +0000

IIRC, after Italy won the 2006 WC, their FIFA ranking improved … to 5th. I stopped taking them seriously after that.

By: David V.

David V. — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:59:42 +0000

And here’s the fallacy of using FIFA rankings. They are prone to skewing and fail to accurately reflect the real quality of teams.

A team like Montenegro, the newest kid on the block in Europe, is ranked in the low 100s yet is of far far better quality, player-wise, than many of the teams above.

By: Albert Ross

Albert Ross — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 13:13:12 +0000

Based on the more accurate ELO rankings AFC-A was a relatively harder group. Even if you drop the lowest ranked side the groups were even-stevens on average ranking.

Australia 35
Japan 20
Bahrain 57
Qatar 80
Uzbekistan 71
Average: 53

Korea Rep 34
DPRK 72
Saudi Arabia 44
Iran 40
UAE 112
Average 60

The logical thing for FIFA to do is rack the East Asian countries off to a Desert Zone (with perhaps 1.5 places in the WC) where they can’t do much harm either politically or on the field. This would leave a West Asian Zone that would be very strong with great TV appeal and plenty of money. The OFC could be integrated into the WAZ with the tiny countries having a nice little comp with subsidized travel to play in as they already do in the AFC, And everyone would live happily ever after.

I keep trying to call Großonkel Seppi to discuss this but “the girl” always says he is in a meeting. Sigh.

By: jimbo

jimbo — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 13:09:02 +0000

Here’s the current FIFA World’s top 8 ranked teams that will make up Pot A at this year’s World Cup draw and pull Australia’s ball out of the jar:
Spain, Netherlands, Germany Italy, Brazil, England, Argentina and Croatia.

We’ve played all of them, except Spain, in the past few years and done pretty well against them.
It won’t be the most entertaining game of football you’ve ever seen, but I’m sure Pimbo could manage a draw against anyone of these Pot As in round 1.

By: David V.

David V. — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 11:25:38 +0000

Mick, that’s all true. But also that the Asian WCQs are a far more accurate (besides Uzbekistan’s unexpectedly poor showing) reflection of the teams in the region than the last Asian Cup ever was. Iraq were unfortunate not to get out of their group though, but the gap in quality in Asia was reflected in the fact that Indonesia and Vietnam had looked good in the Asian Cup but were comprehensively beaten in the World Cup qualifiers.

By: Mick

Mick — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 09:45:41 +0000

If Australia were in the other group it would of been much more difficult as all the coutries in the other group have played at world cup(s) & are up a notch on qatar, uzbekistan & bahrain although I thought the uzbeks would of been alot better than they have shown

By: whiskeymac

whiskeymac — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 08:48:40 +0000

let NZ in and then we can resolve the Nix issue easily

By: Captain Random

Captain Random — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 06:03:21 +0000

I have previously stated a desire to see Asia split geographically but I would be more than happy to see the Oceania champions in the final group stage of AFC qualifying. It would be great for New Zealand’s development (well, that’s who is most likely to make it). One question: should they also be allowed into the Asian Cup?

By: dasilva

dasilva — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 04:28:45 +0000

Yeah I agree with this article that it’s nice to have a proper World Cup qualification campaign. I believe we would have qualified to the world cup far more often if it we weren’t shafted by FIFA.

By: dasilva

dasilva — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 04:26:05 +0000

The issue between OFC joining Asia is a bit complicated. the only side in OFC that would really benefit from that is New Zealand. The other pacific islanders side will quite likely will play less matches then they would have in the OFC (a home and away AFC WCQ preliminaries playoff to reach the group stages where they most likely be eliminated beforehand and 3 AFC Challenge Cup qualification matches where they most likely be knocked out in the group stages). THe AFC may not let OFC nations clubs play in the AFC President Cup (you must have an ‘acceptable football league’ to be allowed entrance in that competition).

The OFC nations already have a OFC nation cup and a regular WCQ campaign as well as a OFC Champions League for the clubs sides.

I don’t think the future is OFC joining Asia but more of Asia letting the champions of OFC to play in the final group stages of the WCQ.

By: Joe FC

Joe FC — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 03:19:49 +0000

nice article David although like MVDave I didn’t find the qualifying process stress free. Also as Ben says there can be no certainity about qualifying in future campaigns. China will eventually get its act together & the bench mark will be raised.

By: hugie

hugie — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 00:24:03 +0000

As far as the draw is concerned we can still end up with a team from CONCACAF (IMO the weakest confederation bar Oceania) and Africa (who aren’t easy but are beatable…see our results vs Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa in recent years). Yes we could cop a group of death but I’d prefer to cop a group of death in South Africa than not qualify!

By: MVDave

MVDave — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 23:06:05 +0000

Dont know about the Asian Qualifying path being stress free. Certainly this time the Socceroos did it well but…if China had scored their last minute penalty, if Bahrain/Japan had converted their dominance into goals in their home ties etc etc. IMO the Asian route will become prgressively more difficult especially as countries such as China, Qatar, etc pour millions into their development programs.
Certainly the Asian route allows for some mistakes to be made and still get through unlike the one off play offs.
In terms of interest in the qualifying process there is no comparison. In past campaigns all has been focused into a 1-2 week period now it is spread over 18-24 months. Financially FFA are much better off…assuming 70,000 at the MCG on Wednesday then over 375,000 (120,000 in Melb, just under 170,000 in Sydenee and nearly 90,000 in Brisbane) fans have watched home games alone (at very high ticket prices) ve less than 100,000 last itme (including Oceania qualifyers), media has reported closely on 14 games vs 2 last time, TV has telecast 14 games vs 2 last time (including new record audiences for Foxsports), players who would be unknown in the past are now being debated in the media/public as to whether they are worthy eg Holman, McDonald.
The spikes of attention aren’t as high as last time, nor the high emotions but neither are the lows…the Socceroos have been in the news almost consistently over an 18 month period.
In future qualifying periods there will be greater highs and lows no doubt but equally the vast majority of football fans prefer the Asian route. The FFA have also (hopefully) learnt a great deal so some changes can be made to the next series in 2013.
The fact that Australia has made it so comfortably is down to the excellent work by the coaches and players who have yet to receive the full media/public plaudits their efforts deserve.
What an exciting 12 months we have ahead of us…cant wait.

By: Ben of Phnom Penh

Ben of Phnom Penh — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 22:38:10 +0000

The longer qualification process is far better for our team development and certainly something I prefer as I’ve been watching games regularly for one a half years as opposed to two games over a week. Still, let us not believe it will always be a cakewalk…… just ask Iran.

By: whiskeymac

whiskeymac — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 22:23:02 +0000

ramirez – fair point but i think the problem is is that asia is already “massive” geographically. a confederation stretching from the med to half way in the pacific would be an expensive one to have teams shuttled about in. ultimately i like the oft raised point of splitting asia into 2 – east and west, and oceania could be tacked onto the east. but the federations would need to be a lot stronger than they are now to survive divided. secondly i think oceania’s population is so small and scattered that it’s not really going to have add much value on its own.

david, i too prefer being in a long world up campaign in line with the rest of the world. better for the players development, the coaches, revenue, exposure etc… although the one of dramas are great spectacles that excite neutrals they only havea short term impact – and when we lost very short term – this format is so much better for the game and it’s development.

as for not being ina group with an asian team..well, yes that is going to be “interesting”. no easy games at the WC, but some games are certainly easier than others.

By: Ramirez

Ramirez — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 20:24:57 +0000

I don’t know whats the point in having the OFC nowadays. For most of the football world it is not a problem to have New Zealand playing a WC qualifying playoff with Saudi Arabia or Iran once in every 4 years, but it is definately a problem when you have Waitekere United playing the FIFA World Club Cup. Why not merge the AFC with the OFC?