AFL crowds will be down 348K this season

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By jimbo, 15 Jun 2009 The Crowd is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: AFL, AFL crowd attendance figures, Sydney Swans

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There have been plenty of articles referring to A-League crowd slump, but let’s look at the decline in AFL crowds this season and make some prediction for how big the drop will be for AFL by the end of the season.

At exactly the half way stage, lets look at AFL attendance projections for the second half of the year and the season total. This is designed to illustrate just what the significance of the crowd decline so far might extrapolate to by the season’s end.

Most likely is that that will be a decline of about 348,000 AFL attendances by the end of the 2009 season, if the relative percentage decline trend continues.

And just what hope is there within the remaining rounds for a venue-by-venue rise in crowds over the run home to compensate for any of the losses?

So far this season, crowds are already down more than 165,000 on last season, and are a lot lower than the previous year as well.

We know that we saw an increase in overall attendances in the last two AFL seasons, but it looks like the AFL trend is downwards in 2009. This is particularly evident for teams outside Melbourne.

The falls aren’t just in attendances at games, but also in TV ratings, especially in Sydney where Swans games have the lowest TV audience of any program on a Saturday night in Sydney, including the lowly rating SBS program, The Iron Chef.

Sydney Swans home games attendances will be down about 110,000 this season or about thirty percent of the overall AFL decline. In terms of relative percentage to potential TV audience, the TV ratings for Swans games are some of the lowest since the Swans move to Sydney 25 years ago.

With the looming new television deal for AFL coming up for renewal in the next couple of years and the expansion of the AFL with two new teams in Sydney’s West and the Gold Coast, these are worrying figures for the AFL.

The fall in interest in AFL comes despite a widespread and very expensive national advertising campaign run by the AFL at the beginning of the season and also a very large increase in marketing and advertising budgets for this financial year.

The AFL had also set aside $150 million alone for the “Expansion of AFL into NSW and Queensland”.

Obviously it has not had the desired effect, especially in NSW, where football continues to have the highest number of registered players by a very large margin and still growing at about six percent annually.

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The Crowd Says (66) | Page 1 of Comments

tifosi said | June 15th 2009 @ 8:45am | Report comment

cant wait until this denigrates into a football code war free for all……………………….

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Redb said | June 15th 2009 @ 8:50am | Report comment

Quite amazing that Michael C gets moderated becuase he allegedly starts code wars.

Jimbo, stay tuned for Round 17 of the AFL it might put a hole in your argument a little, not that aren’t quite a few already.

Redb

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Tom said | June 15th 2009 @ 9:01am | Report comment

http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnews/pies-a-drag-on-crowd-numbers/2009/05/12/1241893982559.html

According to Caroline Wilson last month the Magpies crowd figures have been well down which probably explains a large part of the drop.

By the way, its probably courteous to quote sources for your stats. And its probably somewhat pointless to extrapolate the figures into a ‘relative percentage decline’. There’s far too many variables for that to be any use.

Jimbo, I’m not real thrilled about the way some journalists and bloggers have harped on the A-league crowd figures either, but there seems to be some bitterness in this article and I don’t think it helps.

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Robbos said | June 15th 2009 @ 9:04am | Report comment

Here we go again.

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Pippinu said | June 15th 2009 @ 9:43am | Report comment

Jimbo

It’s a timely reminder to us all that after two decades of continuous growth in crowd numbers and TV ratings, that it could not continue unabated, but as Tom says, you should have provided sources for the figures you quote.

I would also be interested in seeing how the extrapolated figures match up with last year’s figures (you have given a drop, but you do not appear to have shown the two figures side by side), and how the same figures for other competitions looks like (for instance, there might be a universal trend at play here).

It’s true that the AFL has put aside $150 mill for ongoing expansion in the Northern markets, but I don’t think they have actually started spending it yet (to any great degree).

Your stats might be an argument in favour of spending it rather than not spending it.

Keep up the good work, none of us should have a problem with seeing actual stats across the board.

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Michael C said | June 15th 2009 @ 9:48am | Report comment

Jimbo -

given that I’ve already initiated a look at AFL figures with respect to potential GFC impact, and then finished off with a query about potential swine flu impact – - it’s hardly a case for an Einstein to predict a reduction.

Given the long term base – i.e. of a regular 16 team 22 round comp that has been stable since the mid 1990s, given that we are coming off two consecutive record (aggregate AND average) years – means all things considered, a reduction this year would not be overly surprising.

However, Jimbo, you said:
So far this season, crowds are already down more than 165,000 on last season, and are a lot lower than the previous year as well.

Not quite right.
Firstly – after 11 completed rounds – the 2009 figure is down 187,675 on same time season 2008.
But, is down 18,242 on season 2007, having oscillated thus far between being as much as 48K down on 2007 to be 49K UP on 2007 just 2 weeks ago. Obviously, there can be huge fluctuation from week to week based upon the scheduling from year to year of matches in Darwin or Canberra or at Carrara.

Basically, the current trend line is pretty well in line with 2007. 2008 was a different trend. In 2008, the avg to end round 11 was 38.5K but dropped away to ‘just’ below 37K. IN 2007, the same figures saw an increase from rnd 11 36.6K UP to end of year 36.8K.

Thus, just the 2 previous years gives a range of expectations from Round 11 onwards of a 0.5% growth to a 4.01% drop.

That’s a range of – based on 2008 figures, a potential drop of 72K to 360K for season total.

WHat we don’t know is the trend profile for the rest of the season.

However – one definite disadvantage for the AFL this year, is that having North Melbourne back in town for the 3 games they used to play at Carrara (or Canberra, or Sydney), has seen 3 NM home games at Docklands produce a total of 51K (vs Port, Freo and Brissie). Invariably one or 2 of these would’ve been at Carrara and return less – however, this year, Carlton and St.Kilda have thus far journeyed up there rather than playing home games in Melbourne. Hardly an ideal situation for crowd maximisation.

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Midfielder said | June 15th 2009 @ 10:08am | Report comment

HMMMMMMMMMMmmm

Anyone got any idea on the NRL and Super 14 figures … either way up or down…

On a sober note I don’t think the AFL have anything to worry about … variations within a certain context can often be explained by local or one off factors … These very much effected the A_league and I am sure are doing the same to the AFL…

Moreover the AFL crowd figures are huge by any measurement standard… so a dip is OK … my understanding at least in league is when Manly, Parrmatta, Souths play well and lead the comp crowds are up but when Easts, Canterbury, Cronulla, are on top crowds are down … maybe it is similar in AFL as well..

Having said all that the final year figures will make interesting reading…

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Michael C said | June 15th 2009 @ 10:08am | Report comment

Tom -

Caroline Wilson is being a tad bit naughty – - and the reason why is one of the great reasons to avoid too much club based review of crowds.

In 2008, Collingwood HOSTED BOTH the Anzac Day clash with Essendon that drew 89K as well as the Queens Birthday clash with Melbourne which drew 80K. That’s a fair boost to the bottom line.

This year, they didn’t get to host those matches – - as it was, Anzac day 84K went to Essendon and QB Monday 61K went to Melbourne.

Do you blame Collingwood for those drop offs in crowds?

Now – I hate Collingwood as much as anyone – but, Caro blames Collingwood for the Good Friday crowd of only 58K. It WAS a Geelong home game at the MCG. Perhaps Geelong deserve the blame. Last year when Coll hosted, it drew 78K (in Rnd 9).

Fixturing is important – and luck. This year, Collingwood has hosted Adelaide, Port, and Melb at the MCG for crowds b/w 35-43K. Alas, their hosting St.Kilda was squandered at Docklands (which, for big games will often ‘cost’ at least 10K on what the MCG would have hosted) for ‘only’ 47K. They drew 82K for the Carlton MCG game. No issues there. In 2007, an early season hosting of Richmond drew 70K along with hosting Carlton with 77K. Basically – - on both 2007 and 2008, Collingwood are one ‘home’ blockbuster down. For Caroline Wilson to go trying to create a story from this is highly ignorant.

However – reality is, if financial belts are being tightened, many people will revert to ‘home’ memberships and the extra spend of attending ‘away’ games will be curtailed.

This is not so obvioius for example in an A-League scenario, as, in Melbourne, you only have ‘home’ matches for the Victory.

The AFL obviously benefits on one hand in Melb especially (as the NRL does in Sydney……or,…..should!!), from locally based opposition supporters. That’s why most teams line up to ‘host’ Collingwood in Melbourne.

Certainly the challenge is there for my North Melbourne to draw more of their 30K members to games!

Anyway, the sad thing for those of us statistically minded – is the AFL fixture is so unbalanced anyway, and, we don’t even get a straight first 15 rounds – if we at least had that, with each team playing each other once to that point. It’s a minefield trying to run year on year comparisons.

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Redb said | June 15th 2009 @ 10:28am | Report comment

MC,

As AFL crowds are already huge any swing is more noticable and can be put down to Collingwood, economic climate, games in Launceston, Gold Coast, Darwin, Canberra – all good for growing the game no so good for the crowd average (which is already at world class status). Plus twilight games which are not crowd friendly but TV friendly.

The other factor is the draw, the second half contains quite a few more blockbuster fixtures that will have the AFLdetractors scratching their heads at the crowds acheived. As I said above look at Round 17, not only will this produce a big crowd surge for the year, it will possiibly break the all time record for a round of football and in a year of difficult circumstances.

Swans crowds down, Brisbane Lions crowds and TV ratings both up. Sydney crowds generally for bandwagon fans have been poor in 2008 and 2009 and not just in the AFL.

As the St Kidla v Cartlon clash showed the game is very heathly in terms of interest with fans and that is the true test. Statistical or technical crowd drops may happen this year, but it is barely a blip on the radar to what is happening to the game.

Redb

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Michael C said | June 15th 2009 @ 10:38am | Report comment

Midfielder -

for the NRL – (not counting this round)

after 96 games this year, they are sitting on an average of 16,466. Last year, to end round 13 with 94 matches played – they were 16,416. Thus, up by an average of 50. The trend line to last year is almost identical – which would suggest a season end figure around the high 15K mark – last year, finished at 15,591.

For the NRL – going back to 2007 (granted it was a 25 round season then compared to 26 rounds now – but, still 192 games).
After Rnd 13 with 98 matches completed, the avg was 15,721. It end the year a little up on that at 15,750.

So, again, with the NRL trend line – will the crowd fall away a bit like in 2008, or bump up a bit like in 2007??

Like usual – for the NRL – it’s that SoO period that kills, absolutely kills the averages mid year. (combined with cooler weather too in June).

Actually – a factor perhaps in AFL this year was an early cold blast mid Autumn that saw the snow fields opened a month early. As compared to some very dry autumns in the previous couple of years. Also, in previous years, many local footy leagues started a week or 2 weeks later than normal. Factors like this may have assisted the last 2 seasons to reach record levels.

As Midfielder indicated – - – it’s still pretty damn good which ever way you look at it.

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